Winnipeg Jets select D Logan Stanley (1/18) Part II (Mod warning in OP)

[YWGinYYZ]

Yes, I know that. I'm not saying the Jets are the only team dazzled by his size. Its not like this is a rare phenomenon. The rumour is that if we hadn't taken him Detroit would have. Most, if not all teams give in to the temptation to take the home run swing once in a while. That doesn't make it smart. He is a long shot. Does anybody deny that? Long shots should be reserved for the late rounds.

I hope he turns out like Myers. There is no particular reason to believe he will but he certainly might.

You're having a different discussion than I am. I was simply disputing your "5th or 6th" round statement.

 

[garret9]

Okay, but how many threads to we need filled with unsupported narratives and false correlations?

According to multiple posts in this thread we should be concerned about the scouting department that selected Petan, and DeLeo, and had Brendan Lemieux in the first round because they over-value size.



I would accuse you of being naïve, but I don't believe for a ****ing second that you actually think that.

Don't find any irony of being just as emotional on people being emotional over the pick?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Very few big D who produce well don't make it. A considerable proportion of small players who produce well don't make it. Many big Dmen who make it didn't produce at 17. Virtually no small D who don't produce at 17 make it.

Yes I know. See my last sentence. I like big players if they are good. There are positives I have heard about Stanley in the last few days. Native athleticism (I saw no sign of that in the videos I watched), great character and work ethic for example. That combined with his size might give him a decent chance of developing into a good player. Apparently his skating has improved. It still needs work. Skating techniques can be taught and developed through practice. Mentally processing the game at high enough speed is harder to teach and harder to learn. Hockey sense and anticipation, I don't know if they can really be learned at all beyond a certain point. From watching some video of him I got the impression that he knew intellectually where to be but was having to think about it too much. So he was doing the right things but too late. That is based off of a pretty small sample but that's what I saw. Or part of it. At one point I thought I was watching Jay Harrison.

Will he turn out to be a good player? I don't know. I hope he does.

 

[PhilJets]

Stanley, Lemiuex and LOWRY

SOME needed nastiness to the Jets group.

 

[truck]

Yes, I know that. I'm not saying the Jets are the only team dazzled by his size. Its not like this is a rare phenomenon. The rumour is that if we hadn't taken him Detroit would have. Most, if not all teams give in to the temptation to take the home run swing once in a while. That doesn't make it smart. He is a long shot. Does anybody deny that? Long shots should be reserved for the late rounds.

I hope he turns out like Myers. There is no particular reason to believe he will but he certainly might.

They are pretty well all long shots outside of the top 15.

We are talking about the theoretical difference between 35%ish and 15%ish (pulled thise numbers out of my butt, but I think they are representative). This is based on a purely statistical model. We know we don't have a full data set. We don't what other variables were considered.

Would I have made this pick? No. I would tend to favor known odds, but I would also expect case by case variance. If the Jets believe his athleticism pushed his odds from 15 to 20 (or more) - that would be relevant.

 

[raideralex99]

I trying to figure out what the problem is here.
Majority say Stanley is bust on the Jets HFs which I find funny, actually sad ... the kid is still learning and only the Jet HF fans are calling him down ... Wow.
Remember 2014 season when Buff got suspended during the playoff run more than half of you wanted him gone. Things change so quickly eh?
Give Stanley a break ... the poor kid is trying to become a pro with our team ... do you really think he deserves to be called a bust?

 

[truck]

Stanley, Lemiuex and LOWRY

SOME needed nastiness to the Jets group.

Lemieux isn't in the Jets group. Stanley may never be.

 

[Boxertim]

Going by the Google sheet they have going in the prospects forum, Stanley's average ranking was 40.6, median 30, and he had a st dev of 28.27 (though this is based off something like 12 ratings). Frankly he was one of the better ranked D left on the board at 18, Johansen and Clague had better average rankings but lower median rankings. Not particularly sold on Stanley myself, certainly concerned if he'll be able to develop his offense. But if the Jets were intent on drafting a D at 18 then so be it.

Good post. Finally a post with numbers an old guy like me can understand!

 

[Daximus]

Close enough to "sub six feet"?

Close enough to be labelled "not sub-six feet" I got lambasted on here for saying Laine isn't actually 6'4 he is 6'3.75 and was told that's close enough and these things fluctuate given a number of factors. so I'll tell you what they told me... Why split hairs?

 

[Daximus]

I trying to figure out what the problem is here.
Majority say Stanley is bust on the Jets HFs which I find funny, actually sad ... the kid is still learning and only the Jet HF fans are calling him down ... Wow.
Remember 2014 season when Buff got suspended during the playoff run more than half of you wanted him gone. Things change so quickly eh?
Give Stanley a break ... the poor kid is trying to become a pro with our team ... do you really think he deserves to be called a bust?

No one is calling him a bust. Everyone is just saying virtually everything is flying in the face of him making it. He has to overcome some pretty big odds in order to be an NHLer. He's a gamble. I haven't seen anyone label him a bust yet and doing so would frankly be premature.

 

[Jetsfan79]

Yes, I know that. I'm not saying the Jets are the only team dazzled by his size. Its not like this is a rare phenomenon. The rumour is that if we hadn't taken him Detroit would have. Most, if not all teams give in to the temptation to take the home run swing once in a while. That doesn't make it smart. He is a long shot. Does anybody deny that? Long shots should be reserved for the late rounds.

I hope he turns out like Myers. There is no particular reason to believe he will but he certainly might.

The Jets have assembled such a great prospect pool that it may actually behove them to take a homerun swing. I actually think thats smart and makes perfect sense to me. I don't mind the risk at all. Another thing to consider is that the Jets feel they can develop him better than the average team can. It's not just the player to consider -the team's ability to help a player develop is important too. They want to mold him -to maximize his potential. I firmly believe they see something in this guy that is beyond just his sheer size . Now if they jets picked projects with every pick, the whining and complaining would be warranted. Otherwise I think it is unwarranted and any disagreeing with the pick shouldn't be met with any negativity stronger than "that's not what I would of done" sort of comment and then we move on. I don't think anyone should be "disappointed". Now this of course is just my opinion.

As for saving "long shots" for the later rounds, I agree with you that should probably be the case ideally, but in this specific circumstance, the Jets scouts felt strongly about this guy and knew he would not have been available in the later rounds. Every list I have seen, hes been ranked 42 or better. I would maybe agree with you if pick 22 was the Jets only first rounder.

 

[janneydraketkachuk]

The Jets have assembled such a great prospect pool that it may actually behove them to take a homerun swing. I actually think thats smart and makes perfect sense to me. I don't mind the risk at all. Another thing to consider is that the Jets feel they can develop him better than the average team can. It's not just the player to consider -the team's ability to help a player develop is important too. They want to mold him -to maximize his potential. I firmly believe they see something in this guy that is beyond just his sheer size . Now if they jets picked projects with every pick, the whining and complaining would be warranted. Otherwise I think it is unwarranted and any disagreeing with the pick shouldn't be met with any negativity stronger than "that's not what I would of done" sort of comment and then we move on. I don't think anyone should be "disappointed". Now this of course is just my opinion.

As for saving "long shots" for the later rounds, if the Jets scouts felt that strong about this guy, he would not have been available in the later rounds. Every list I have seen, hes been ranked 42 or better. I would maybe agree with you if pick 22 was the Jets only first rounder.

The problem is from a statistical viewpoint, he's not a home run swing. He's less likely to become elite than other guys who were available there.

 

[Jetsfan79]

The problem is from a statistical viewpoint, he's not a home run swing. He's less likely to become elite than other guys who were available there.

Sometimes you throw the stats away and go with your gut. Thats what thats what the Jets did. They see something beyond the stats with this guy. My point is they can afford to do that considering they had a higher 1st round pick and a modestly healthy amount of prospects in their pool.

 

[KingBogo]

This is going a bit overboard - he was rated far above that on most lists.

Stanley was ranked in the 1st round on more ranking lists than not. On one consensus list of 11 top draft rankings Stanley was ranked 24th OA. A far cry from a late round pick.

http://www.mynhldraft.com/2016-draft/2016-nhl-draft-consensus-rankings/

 

[Daximus]

Sometimes you throw the stats away and go with your gut. Thats what thats what the Jets did. They see something beyond the stats with this guy. My point is they can afford to do that considering they had a higher 1st round pick and a modestly healthy amount of prospects in their pool.

People keep bringing this up. I don't see how having a healthy amount of forwards prospects means you can take a risk on a defencemen. Outside of Morrissey, who likely graduates this year, the only guys I see as having any shot at making it are Kostalek and Green. The rest are all longshots, just like Stanley.

 

[KingBogo]

People keep bringing this up. I don't see how having a healthy amount of forwards prospects means you can take a risk on a defencemen. Outside of Morrissey, who likely graduates this year, the only guys I see as having any shot at making it are Kostalek and Green. The rest are all longshots, just like Stanley.

By whatever criteria the Jets scouts used to be so passionate about Stanley I don't think they see it as a home run swing. IMO they believe they have a diamond in the rough who will develop into the defenseman they project him to be.

 

[Daximus]

By whatever criteria the Jets scouts used to be so passionate about Stanley I don't think they see it as a home run swing. IMO they believe they have a diamond in the rough who will develop into the defenseman they project him to be.

Which raises more questions than it answers.

 

[KingBogo]

Which raises more questions than it answers.

Maybe. But I'm more intrigued then anything with the pick. The scouts having the same passion as for the Scheifele pick in 2011 has me thinking that they have something they really believe in that has entered into the equation. I'm willing to see it all play out and root like hell for the kid to make it.

 

[Daximus]

Maybe. But I'm more intrigued then anything with the pick. The scouts having the same passion as for the Scheifele pick in 2011 has me thinking that they have something they really believe in that has entered into the equation. I'm willing to see it all play out and root like hell for the kid to make it.

I can't wait to see how it plays out too. But the Scheif pick was still justifiable. The kid was actually already producing at a decent clip and then still took a step forward year after year. Stanley has always been a low point producer. And the only thing they can give us is he's improved his skating a little.

 

[Jetsfan79]

People keep bringing this up. I don't see how having a healthy amount of forwards prospects means you can take a risk on a defencemen. Outside of Morrissey, who likely graduates this year, the only guys I see as having any shot at making it are Kostalek and Green. The rest are all longshots, just like Stanley.

There are other ways to get a defensemen. They can trade some of that forward prospect depth for a D, or sign a UFA if they can. They could also draft a "safer" pick next year for a D. My point is that it is not life and death for the jets to have a defenceman right now. Whether the Jets picked Stanley or someone like Johansen, neither would be ready right away. What it comes to is this: at 22, the Jets felt Stanley was the best defender available - Period. They see him as better than just a blind a "long shot". And since Logan's ranking is not too distant to who was left at defence at that juncture of the draft, I don't think we can second guess The Jets's decision too harshly and give them the benefit of the doubt.

 

[hurricanedave]

Stanley might have been an unwise pick ( I think so), but he wasn't a huge "reach" based on rankings. McKenzie's panel of 10 NHL scouts had him ranked at 22, and clearly the best D available when the Jets were going to select.

He was ranked ahead of Hajek, Cholowski, Johansen and Clague. So, according to a group of ten scouts, he was the best D available.

By the way, Green was ranked at #60 on McKenzie's list, ahead of Dineen and Peeke. Cederholm was ranked at #78. The average ranking of the Jets 2-4 picks was 53. Interestingly, at the beginning of the draft the average draft placement for those Jets picks was 52 (22, 36, 97).

Fun with numbers...

That last bit is actually pretty fun, slightly off topic but definitely dig the Green pick. Seems like the jets found some really good value after Stanley. Hopefully he'll have the opportunity contribute more offensively next season.

 

[Daximus]

There are other ways to get a defensemen. They can trade some of that forward prospect depth for a D, or sign a UFA if they can. They could also draft a "safer" pick next year for a D. My point is that it is not life and death for the jets to have a defenceman right now. Wheter the Jets picked Stanley or someone like Johansen, neither would be ready right away. What it comes to is this: at 22, the Jets felt Stanley was the best defender available - Period. They see him as better than just a blind a "long shot". And since Logan's ranking is not too distant to who was left at defence at that juncture of the draft, I don't think we can second guess The Jets's decision too harshly and give them the benefit of the doubt.

Just because there are other ways doesn't mean we will get one. Ask Edmonton how that search has gone. And banking on drafting a safer pick now makes it another year down the line that the kid can make an impact on the roster if there is even one available. It's not life or death but I just don't feel you should take unnecessary risks when you haven't even won a playoff game yet.
We could have had two dmen and played the numbers game. And at least the difference between Stanley and Johansen is Johansen actually has some skill to build on. I mean if Logan Stanley is 6'3 we likely pay no attention to him. But because he's 6'7 he has a boat load of potential according to our scouts. Some of the same scouts that said Valabik had a boat load of potential.
The Jets management shouldn't and won't get a free pass on their decision making just because they have made some good decisions in the past because they've also made questionable decisions in the past as well. Maybe it's just my opinion but we aren't in the position yet to be hedging our bets on the next Chara. We should be hedging our bets on gathering enough defencemen to build a pool that rivals our forward pool to prepare us for the coming years of being a contender because our current top 4 won't last forever.

 

[KurtG8]

I trying to figure out what the problem is here.
Majority say Stanley is bust on the Jets HFs which I find funny, actually sad ... the kid is still learning and only the Jet HF fans are calling him down ... Wow.
Remember 2014 season when Buff got suspended during the playoff run more than half of you wanted him gone. Things change so quickly eh?
Give Stanley a break ... the poor kid is trying to become a pro with our team ... do you really think he deserves to be called a bust?

I echo these thoughts myself, personally the more i read and hear about him im loving the pick. I thought back to the smile on Chevy's face when he was going up to make that pick. It was HUGE and seemed like a guy who was pretty stoked about his 1st round.

We also here that our scouts beat on the table for this kid and had him in there top 10 prospects overall(whether its true or not WHO KNOWS). After hearing his coach in Windsor speak on 1290, im inclined to believe we dont know what he can bring on the offensive side yet, cause they played 4 forwards on the PP, so he rarely if ever saw anytime there, but also said that he's super coachable and has a amazing work ethic, someone referenced him getting the top cardio score at the combine as proof to that.

Sounds like the Defensive version of Schief, a perceived slight/moderate reach by alot of the fan base. but worked his butt off and proved them all wrong, i was in that group, was PISSSSED that we reached on him as our first pick.

Couldnt have been more happy to be wrong, im taking a different route this time on this pick and im going to give him and the scouts a chance to prove all the haters of this pick wrong.

 

[KingBogo]

I can't wait to see how it plays out too. But the Scheif pick was still justifiable. The kid was actually already producing at a decent clip and then still took a step forward year after year. Stanley has always been a low point producer. And the only thing they can give us is he's improved his skating a little.

You may very well be right Dax. But for now I've promised myself I'm not going to get caught up in this discussion. I will remain intrigued, and believe there is something that the scouts really believe in that has entered the mix, as it has been portrayed as across the board passion. I will root like hell for the kid and wait and see how things turn out.

 

[Daximus]

You may very well be right Dax. But for now I've promised myself I'm not going to get caught up in this discussion. I will remain intrigued, and believe there is something that the scouts really believe in that has entered the mix, as it has been portrayed as across the board passion. I will root like hell for the kid and wait and see how things turn out.

I know I should be more supportive but I just have this bad gut feeling this one is going to hurt. Especially if Johansen and Clague become regular NHLers and Stanley is off playing in Europe after 3 failed tries at the AHL.