Winnipeg Jets going into the 24/25 season

[Flair Hay]

Ehlers is definitely elite at zone exits, but he also seems to turn pucks over at the offensive zone blueline. I'm not sure about the frequency, but I do notice it when it happens because coaches HATE turnovers at both bluelines because of the counterattack that they cause (the resto of the team is moving in the wrong direction)

As for the scoring rates, I'd be curious to see how much the gap narrows once stregth of competition is controlled for. It seems obvious that Ehlers makes the top line better vs Connor, but usually ehlers is either being played with Schief and Connor or Connor is injured. There haven't been many instances where they've swapped spots... but Connor Monahan Perfetti was a great line in the limited minutes they got when Bones reunited ESL

To me part of the frustrating part is Connor always seems to do well away from Scheif. Had his best season playing with Dubois...

Some of these stats arguments can be pretty nuanced and complicated. This one was frustrating because it seems pretty straight forward, and Bowness just didn't see it the same way. And the results turned out the same again.

 

[Flair Hay]

The better question might be, why is KC better with other centers - and why is 55 better with other wingers
The answers have been discussed to death -
KC will be better playing with a center that is decent defensively.
55 will be better with a winger who can take care of outlets with minimal playmaking involved (Ehlers).

And mitigating factors are important if you want to dig into issues and sort out the "whys"

At a certain point, at this point you have found the conclusion already. It's not a tough problem to solve. Player A is better with player C than B. Player B is better with player D and A. Player C makes everyone better.

How do you arrange these in pairs?

And we've been getting this wrong for a bit too long now...

The mitigating factors matter - at what point do you just fix the straight forward problem?

 

[Buffdog]

After adjusting for teammates and competition, the Jets still give up way more goals and expected goals per 60 minutes when Connor is on the ice.

Are you saying that the Jets give up more goals than their opponents when Connor is on the ice?

When away from Schiefele, Connor was a positive in goals for last season in limited minutes (according to naturalstattrick)

Sample sizes aren't anywhere large enough to draw conclusions though

 

[Whileee]

Are you saying that the Jets give up more goals than their opponents when Connor is on the ice?

When away from Schiefele, Connor was a positive in goals for last season in limited minutes (according to naturalstattrick)

Sample sizes aren't anywhere large enough to draw conclusions though

Yes, historically the Jets give up more goals than they score (5v5) with Connor on the ice, and that's over a fairly large sample size over the past several seasons and with adjustment for situation, opponents, etc.

There is no question that both Connor and Scheifele have better on-ice shot and goal differentials when they play apart than when they play together. I think that if Arniel and the new coaching staff can optimize the Connor and Scheifele usage, it would improve the Jets' performance.

 

[Flair Hay]

Yes, historically the Jets give up more goals than they score (5v5) with Connor on the ice, and that's over a fairly large sample size over the past several seasons and with adjustment for situation, opponents, etc.

There is no question that both Connor and Scheifele have better on-ice shot and goal differentials when they play apart than when they play together. I think that if Arniel and the new coaching staff can optimize the Connor and Scheifele usage, it would improve the Jets' performance.

Yeah like it's hard not to argue that there is room to improve our performance without a single addition to the club. Just moving around the puzzle pieces. It's an opportunity, and I know I probably sound so negative for always harping on it.

That's the best part about business, mistakes are merely "opportunities to get better", haha. In this case I look forward to the day where we don't need to harp on Scheif and Connor for defensive play because they are being put in a situation to maximize their strengths and mitigate their areas they need inprovement.

 

[Buffdog]

Yes, historically the Jets give up more goals than they score (5v5) with Connor on the ice, and that's over a fairly large sample size over the past several seasons and with adjustment for situation, opponents, etc.

There is no question that both Connor and Scheifele have better on-ice shot and goal differentials when they play apart than when they play together. I think that if Arniel and the new coaching staff can optimize the Connor and Scheifele usage, it would improve the Jets' performance.

Connor has a goal differential of -25 over a 531 game career - so he gets outscored by one goal on aggregate every 21 games at 5v5

Lots of that time has been spent playing vs other teams' best players with a centreman who is only mildly interested at playing defense (at the best of times)

I'm not making thr case that Connor is GOOD defensively, but I think that we tend to overstate his badness sometimes

As for optimizing usage, I think a lot of that comes down to the relationship that Arniel has with schief and whether or not he can talk him into playing with guys that will yield better results

 

[Whileee]

Connor has a goal differential of -25 over a 531 game career - so he gets outscored by one goal on aggregate every 21 games at 5v5

Lots of that time has been spent playing vs other teams' best players with a centreman who is only mildly interested at playing defense (at the best of times)

I'm not making thr case that Connor is GOOD defensively, but I think that we tend to overstate his badness sometimes

As for optimizing usage, I think a lot of that comes down to the relationship that Arniel has with schief and whether or not he can talk him into playing with guys that will yield better results

The point is that your best players should be out-chancing and out-scoring opponents, not in the negative overall. All of the top players face top opponents, but the best players on the best teams out-score their opponents substantially.

The reality is that the Jets tend to out-score opponents when Scheifele is on the ice without Connor, and when Connor is on the ice without Scheifele. It's the combination of the two that has always left the Jets out-scored and out-chanced at 5v5. I hope that the Jets' coaching symposium will lead to some reflection on how best to construct a top-6 that has better results.

 

[Buffdog]

The point is that your best players should be out-chancing and out-scoring opponents, not in the negative overall. All of the top players face top opponents, but the best players on the best teams out-score their opponents substantially.

The reality is that the Jets tend to out-score opponents when Scheifele is on the ice without Connor, and when Connor is on the ice without Scheifele. It's the combination of the two that has always left the Jets out-scored and out-chanced at 5v5. I hope that the Jets' coaching symposium will lead to some reflection on how best to construct a top-6 that has better results.

I don't think we can construct a top line around schief at this point in his career that will consistently out-chance and outscore their opponents

We went through this ad nauseum during the Ehlers usage debates during the season

I think that the org has decided to run Schief and Lowry vs other teams top lines and hope for a saw-off and have a "second" (third?) line built around Ehlers that can feast on soft matchups

You don't "need" your top line consistently winning matchups if your other lines and special teams (lol) make up the difference (and Helle is Helle).

You'll note that the "top teams" that you're referring to that have a top line winning matchups usually have a top flight-centre to build that line around. We don't.

Again... this isn't my opinion on how to build a winning team. This is what I think the org's opinion is.

 

[WolfHouse]

Connor has a goal differential of -25 over a 531 game career - so he gets outscored by one goal on aggregate every 21 games at 5v5

Lots of that time has been spent playing vs other teams' best players with a centreman who is only mildly interested at playing defense (at the best of times)

I'm not making thr case that Connor is GOOD defensively, but I think that we tend to overstate his badness sometimes

As for optimizing usage, I think a lot of that comes down to the relationship that Arniel has with schief and whether or not he can talk him into playing with guys that will yield better results

Until you realize he has 24 empty net goals...
Then it's every 10 games

 

[Buffdog]

Until you realize he has 24 empty net goals...
Then it's every 10 games

How many empty net goals against has he been out for? Do they cancel out? It has to be close

 

[voyageur]

WARNING: TLDR Thunder storm at the lake this morning post.


New seasons are a bit of a crap shoot.

I was listening to NHL network on XM season ending GM report Cards yesterday and Boomer Gordon gave Chevy and A grade. It was nice to hear an outsiders perspective. He recapped pretty well that after the Vegas loss, Bones melt down, PLD wanting out, Wheeler needing to be bought out, and the rumors of Scheifele and Helly wanting out he thought the Jets were going to have to tear it down.

He felt getting Helle and Schief done, PLD moved for a good package, then the type of season the team had where they gave up the fewest goals in the NHL while having no trouble scoring was pretty much as good as it gets for a GM’s effort given how dire things had looked.

Honestly before that report I had been reflecting a bit more on how good last season was and how much fun it was to watch our team most nights. Of course there were ups and downs but 52-24-6 for 110 points was outstanding.

The playoffs really REALLY soured me but I am starting to at least be able to appreciate what that team got done in the regular season.

It leads me to believe that Mark and TNSE will head into this season with some confidence that they have a good hockey team. I don’t expect any panic.

Now to 2024-2025 projections that is interesting. I will wait to see what our final roster looks like. August is always quite.

Things I am currently pondering (I will probably make full predictions before the season):

Can Arniel keep the team playing that (“Jets hockey”) defensive, pressure, system the Jets played last season?

How will the goaltending do this season?

What is the over under for Gabe on games played? I am expecting 50ish.

Will any prospect emerge (Ville or Lambert)

How will Hail Mary Alphy do on the Moose/Jets.

How will Cole’s season go under a new coach.

How will the new coaching staff perform.

Obviously it will be interesting to follow the loose ends (Ehlers status, Mr Magoo)


I think this is still a good hockey team but we captured lightning in a bottle last season and that team overachieved in the regular season IMO.

The thing about last season is it left room for improvement on special teams...that's one I will be watching, which is one part coaching...I wonder what changes Arniel will have that are notably different from Bowness's strategy...and what the impact of Chynoweth will be taking over the defensive coaching duties for Arniel...obviously the new hires will be on the same page as the coach, after the hiring process. Players responded well to Arniel last year so that had me mildly optimistic...Also I like the depth, I think it is improved from last year, with some players who are definitely looking to break through, who might have to wait their turn...I think there is an opportunity to play with more speed and more size this year.

 

[ps241]

Who's Hail Mary Alphy?

Which team is the real Jets, regular season or PO?
I think it is somewhere in between. The pair of top 6 F rentals appeared to do more harm than good in the PO but they are gone. Regular season Jets did overachieve though. So I expect a step back. How big a step is tough to guess. The competition in the Central appears to have gotten better.

One of my favourite acting roles ever was done by Tom Hardy playing Jewish mob Boss Alphie Solomons in Peaky Blinders.

When we drafted Salomonsson there was no way my new nickname for him wasn’t going to be Alphie. The Hail Mary part is in ode to us all hoping he turns into a top pairing RHD although anything in the top 4 would be great.

This season is a tough one to predict for me, I am going to wait to see what our final roster is then make some predictions that will probably be totally wrong.

 

[ps241]

The thing about last season is it left room for improvement on special teams...that's one I will be watching, which is one part coaching...I wonder what changes Arniel will have that are notably different from Bowness's strategy...and what the impact of Chynoweth will be taking over the defensive coaching duties for Arniel...obviously the new hires will be on the same page as the coach, after the hiring process. Players responded well to Arniel last year so that had me mildly optimistic...Also I like the depth, I think it is improved from last year, with some players who are definitely looking to break through, who might have to wait their turn...I think there is an opportunity to play with more speed and more size this year.

It’s odd how bad our special teams were last year for a 110 point team. As I recall we were much worse in the first half of the season. How can a team that allows the least goals finish so low on the PK?

PK finished 21st with a 77.1% Kill rate

PP finished 21st as well at 18.8% conversion rate.

I remember Hitchcock use to say when you add up the two numbers he liked his teams to reach at least 103 combined score.

Weird stat last year Pittsburgh was 30th raked PP with Crosby, Malkin, Letang, Karlsson, Guentzal on their roster for most of the season.

 

[macmaroon]

One of my favourite acting roles ever was done by Tom Hardy playing Jewish mob Boss Alphie Solomons in Peaky Blinders.

When we drafted Salomonsson there was no way my new nickname for him wasn’t going to be Alphie. The Hail Mary part is in ode to us all hoping he turns into a top pairing RHD although anything in the top 4 would be great.

This season is a tough one to predict for me, I am going to wait to see what our finsl roster is then make some predictions that will probably be totally wrong.

 

[ps241]

View attachment 899100

Might work this into a new Avatar at some point.

 

[Gil Fisher]

Using stats to define Connor as poor defensively is peak misuse of stats to create a narrative.

People act like Connor is a centre or defenseman on the ice. He's a winger and not only a winger he's the F1 winger, the position that has the least defensive impact on the ice.

Next time you're in the building, watch him away from the puck in his own zone. It's pathetic, frankly.

 

[LowLefty]

At a certain point, at this point you have found the conclusion already. It's not a tough problem to solve. Player A is better with player C than B. Player B is better with player D and A. Player C makes everyone better.

How do you arrange these in pairs?

And we've been getting this wrong for a bit too long now...

The mitigating factors matter - at what point do you just fix the straight forward problem?

IMO, the issue is fixed once you convince your centers to do what they are supposed to do - help out the defense when defending in your zone and make zone exit plays that allow cleaner breakouts.
I don't agree with a method that allows a player to drop an aspect of their responsibilities.

I might come down to this:
Are we a better team when our players play a 200' game (especially our best center) or should we look to build lines that prop up weaknesses by asking someone else to do the work?

 

[Gil Fisher]

Are you saying that the Jets give up more goals than their opponents when Connor is on the ice?

When away from Schiefele, Connor was a positive in goals for last season in limited minutes (according to naturalstattrick)

Sample sizes aren't anywhere large enough to draw conclusions though

Use a larger sample then.

 

[ps241]

IMO, the issue is fixed once you convince your centers to do what they are supposed to do - help out the defense when defending in your zone and make zone exit plays that allow cleaner breakouts.
I don't agree with a method that allows a player to drop an aspect of their responsibilities.

I might come down to this:
Are we a better team when our players play a 200' game (especially our best center) or should we look to build lines that prop up weaknesses by asking someone else to do the work?

I have always enjoyed watching centres like Trottier, Bergeron, Barkov, and Aho. First line Centres that can generate a PPG + while excelling defensively. Not an easy task.

 

[surixon]

IMO, the issue is fixed once you convince your centers to do what they are supposed to do - help out the defense when defending in your zone and make zone exit plays that allow cleaner breakouts.
I don't agree with a method that allows a player to drop an aspect of their responsibilities.

I might come down to this:
Are we a better team when our players play a 200' game (especially our best center) or should we look to build lines that prop up weaknesses by asking someone else to do the work?

I imagine we should get a highly motivated Scheifele as he'll want to try to make that 4 nations roster. That roster is a precursor to tye Olympic roster the year following.

 

[LowLefty]

I imagine we should get a highly motivated Scheifele as he'll want to try to make that 4 nations roster. That roster is a precursor to tye Olympic roster the year following.

I hope we do - but I wouldn't count on it

I have always enjoyed watching centres like Trottier, Bergeron, Barkov, and Aho. First line Centres that can generate a PPG + while excelling defensively. Not an easy task.

55 is more than capable of doing exactly what you are saying - but he needs to want to do it, and he needs to recognize the need to do it.

 

[Buffdog]

Use a larger sample then.

Sure, we could go back and look at Connor's performance with a centre not with the org anymore, because that would be super useful in predicting future performance

 

[surixon]

I hope we do - but I wouldn't count on it


55 is more than capable of doing exactly what you are saying - but he needs to want to do it, and he needs to recognize the need to do it.

Our coaches also need to recognize he's no longer in his 20's and needs a reduction in minutes to maintain energy.

 

[WolfHouse]

Our coaches also need to recognize he's no longer in his 20's and needs a reduction in minutes to maintain energy.

Feels like a lost cause but we still need to actually role four lines... that means having confidence in a 4th line though
Esv
Connor-lambert-perfetti
Barron-lowry-iafallo
Nino-names-apples/kupari

Won't happen but it should

 

[Flair Hay]

IMO, the issue is fixed once you convince your centers to do what they are supposed to do - help out the defense when defending in your zone and make zone exit plays that allow cleaner breakouts.
I don't agree with a method that allows a player to drop an aspect of their responsibilities.

I might come down to this:
Are we a better team when our players play a 200' game (especially our best center) or should we look to build lines that prop up weaknesses by asking someone else to do the work?

Agreed, Scheifele being a good defensive center would probably solve this.

At a certain point, defense isn't just about effort either. It's a skill to be able to mentally read the game. As Scheif approaches 30 you have to wonder, is he pretty much what he is now?

It's not about dropping responsibilities, it's about having support around your best players.

What is the best way we can support the weak points in his game and still enjoy the production?

If the solution is to keep Connor and Scheifele together and continue to develop their two way game with each other? Maybe if that does work out that's the best version of the team.

The issue is even Scheif doesn't get a ton better defensively, we are sending out the same bottom 5 top line in the NHL we have been instead of one that is measurably better.