Winnipeg Jets going into the 24/25 season

[sipowicz]

No replacement for Dillon on D, good luck with the squirt sized D corps this season Chevy!

 

[TS Quint]

I'm playing devils advocate a bit... i think they adjusted after game 1 and analytics was part of it. I think the Jets deploy lines that oppose what analytics tells them...

I'd be surprised if analytics doesn't say that pionks game falls off a cliff if he plays too many minutes or that they do say they should play Stan over miller... etc

The Jets lost by ignoring analytics more than avs won with analytics

No, the Jets lost because they collapsed to the net by the time McKinnon or Makar hit centre. That left the middle of the ice open in their end. All the Stars did was defend the middle of the ice and made sure the pass couldn't get to the trailer in the middle. There's no math to it. Just watching what the other team is having success and getting in the way of it.

 

[TS Quint]

Yeah I know some do but I definitely don't like ragging on Connor. Great teams can have guys like him whose job is to put the puck in the net but struggle defensively.

Trouble is we are putting two of them on the same line and there appears to be a blind spot somewhere in identifying what even pretty basic stats have shown over the past several years.

Using stats to define Connor as poor defensively is peak misuse of stats to create a narrative.

People act like Connor is a centre or defenseman on the ice. He's a winger and not only a winger he's the F1 winger, the position that has the least defensive impact on the ice.

 

[WolfHouse]

Using stats to define Connor as poor defensively is peak misuse of stats to create a narrative.

People act like Connor is a centre or defenseman on the ice. He's a winger and not only a winger he's the F1 winger, the position that has the least defensive impact on the ice.

A bit the same way we crucified Laine for his play - but I'm pretty sure its in the game design

 

[ps241]

All are good questions

For me, the big one will be whether Arniel keeps the same style of play that Bones had, or will he tweak it?

It's my personal belief that the effort/exertion need to be successful in that system leads to players fatiguing as the season rolls on. I think that was one reason for our collapse two seasons ago, and contributed to our bad streak last season (that was righted towards the end) and ultimately the playoff shitshow

It's a lot easier to play that way early on in the season before nagging injuries creep in and everyone gets ground down

I seem to recall a Dallas player last year commenting that playing "Bones hockey" wins games but isn't "fun" to do

I think the top scoring forwards get burnt out playing that style.

 

[Whileee]

No replacement for Dillon on D, good luck with the squirt sized D corps this season Chevy!

Big Logan up next...

 

[WolfHouse]

Big Logan up next...

Can we shorten that to Blogan

 

[Whileee]

Using stats to define Connor as poor defensively is peak misuse of stats to create a narrative.

People act like Connor is a centre or defenseman on the ice. He's a winger and not only a winger he's the F1 winger, the position that has the least defensive impact on the ice.

Reality is that the Jets consistently give up more chances and goals against when Connor is on the ice than when he's not. It's not a short -term issue.

I think there are specific reasons why the Jets struggle defensively when Connor is on the ice.

1. Zone exits... Connor is very weak at zone exits so opposing teams exploit that by pressuring the Jets to his side when he's on the ice. A failed zone exit results in extended D zone time that leads to the D and F tiring out and giving up scoring chances.

2. Connor has a penchant for turnovers at his blue line when trying for quick rush offense. Those turnovers result in high danger rushes against.

3. Offensive zone turnovers... Connor has a very predictable approach to offensive zone strategy, with lots of small area maneuvers and twists and cut-backs deep in the offensive zone. The problem is that good teams know how to defend that with good structure, and when Connor or linemates turn the puck over they are usually starting deep in the offensive zone, while opponents are well-structured for break outs and transition offense, which sometimes leads to extended D zone time for Connor at the end of their usual shift length.

In terms of the actual shot volumes and locations against the Jets, it's pretty clear that the Jets are facing a lot more while Connor is on the ice.

 

[TS Quint]

Reality is that the Jets consistently give up more chances and goals against when Connor is on the ice than when he's not. It's not a short -term issue.

I think there are specific reasons why the Jets struggle defensively when Connor is on the ice.

1. Zone exits... Connor is very weak at zone exits so opposing teams exploit that by pressuring the Jets to his side when he's on the ice. A failed zone exit results in extended D zone time that leads to the D and F tiring out and giving up scoring chances.

2. Connor has a penchant for turnovers at his blue line when trying for quick rush offense. Those turnovers result in high danger rushes against.

3. Offensive zone turnovers... Connor has a very predictable approach to offensive zone strategy, with lots of small area maneuvers and twists and cut-backs deep in the offensive zone. The problem is that good teams know how to defend that with good structure, and when Connor or linemates turn the puck over they are usually starting deep in the offensive zone, while opponents are well-structured for break outs and transition offense, which sometimes leads to extended D zone time for Connor at the end of their usual shift length.

In terms of the actual shot volumes and locations against the Jets, it's pretty clear that the Jets are facing a lot more while Connor is on the ice.

View attachment 898976View attachment 898977

Turnovers are not an issue with Connor. Since 17/18 he sits 16th on the Jets /60. So we are supposed to replace him with Ehlers who is 5th? the only other Jet who played significant time and was worse than Ehlers for turnovers is Laine.

Even your chart shows the LW gives up more shots from the point than Connor. And the big heat is infront of the net. That's the responsibility of the centre and defense.

Using these blanket stats that input 10 players on the ice and attributing the output to one player is dubious at best. At worst you find what you are trying to find by starting at the answer and work backwards.

 

[WolfHouse]

Reality is that the Jets consistently give up more chances and goals against when Connor is on the ice than when he's not. It's not a short -term issue.

I think there are specific reasons why the Jets struggle defensively when Connor is on the ice.

1. Zone exits... Connor is very weak at zone exits so opposing teams exploit that by pressuring the Jets to his side when he's on the ice. A failed zone exit results in extended D zone time that leads to the D and F tiring out and giving up scoring chances.

2. Connor has a penchant for turnovers at his blue line when trying for quick rush offense. Those turnovers result in high danger rushes against.

3. Offensive zone turnovers... Connor has a very predictable approach to offensive zone strategy, with lots of small area maneuvers and twists and cut-backs deep in the offensive zone. The problem is that good teams know how to defend that with good structure, and when Connor or linemates turn the puck over they are usually starting deep in the offensive zone, while opponents are well-structured for break outs and transition offense, which sometimes leads to extended D zone time for Connor at the end of their usual shift length.

In terms of the actual shot volumes and locations against the Jets, it's pretty clear that the Jets are facing a lot more while Connor is on the ice.

View attachment 898976View attachment 898977

This is a bit skewed given that connor is not on the 5v5 shutdown line - prob more about indictment of scheif and a dem9nstration of Lowry importance

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

In what ways do you think the Jets' current roster is inferior to the beginning of last season?

I'd say that back-up goaltending is weaker. The 3rd D pair might be weaker, depending on how Miller and Heinola/Stanley etc. pan out. 2nd D pair might actually be better with Samberg-Pionk, based on past pair performance.

I think the forwards are as good or better (based on development of Perfetti and Barron).

I think it's up to the coaches to ensure that Scheifele's line doesn't get buried 5v5 and the special teams improve (especially the PK).

110 points is a very high bar, but the overall roster hasn't really diminished and improvements in the special teams might offset some of the deficits.

Goal, mainly backup, but I don't expect a Vezina from Hellebuyck every season.

D corps in total, without going into pairs, for the absence of Dillon. DeMelo showed some cracks in his game last year. He might be beginning to decline.

Several F will be starting a slow decline. Not saying any are washed up but each year they will be slightly less effective than the year before.

IF there is a significant improvement in ST they could still do very well. IF Scheifele and Connor are broken up the top 6 might be better. But we still don't have a 2C. Vilardi will still probably miss 25-35% of the season. Ehlers' status is still up in the air.

I don't know why people keep expecting more from Barron. His production will increase if his role is increased but he will be the same player.

 

[Weezeric]

Goal, mainly backup, but I don't expect a Vezina from Hellebuyck every season.

D corps in total, without going into pairs, for the absence of Dillon. DeMelo showed some cracks in his game last year. He might be beginning to decline.

Several F will be starting a slow decline. Not saying any are washed up but each year they will be slightly less effective than the year before.

IF there is a significant improvement in ST they could still do very well. IF Scheifele and Connor are broken up the top 6 might be better. But we still don't have a 2C. Vilardi will still probably miss 25-35% of the season. Ehlers' status is still up in the air.

I don't know why people keep expecting more from Barron. His production will increase if his role is increased but he will be the same player.

So basically you can count on the bad things to continue to be bad, and the good things to become less good. Quite a pessimistic view of the world.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

It really seems like the Jets aren't going to make any more moves...Signing Perfetti is the last piece of the puzzle...

If you go by one way contracts the Jets are likely not giving a spot to Lambert out of camp. Namestnikov would be the likely 2C to start, though it is possible that Perfetti gets that gig. With a new coach, who seems to have more confidence in him. That could alter lines a little. Gus and Kupari seem to be the guys battling for 4th line vs. PB.

8 defensemen seems probable, with one of Fleury or Coughlan winning the final spot...Maybe both get send down if a forward wins a spot in TC.

I'm going to say that Perfetti bridges at about $3.25 million AAV, and if my math is any good you subtract Comrie, AJF, JAD off the Puck Pedia roster, add Heinola, Fleury/Coughlan, Perfetti, and the remaining cap space is about $3.25 million...that seems to be the comfort zone Chevy likes to operate in other than the one year the Jets spent to the Cap, had to waive Nash since they wouldn't waive Beaulieu, to call up Berdin with Hellebuyck out short term, and missed the playoffs with little room to manoeuver..last couple of years Jets haven't LTIR'd anyone when injured, just used the extra Cap space to bring up multiple players, and still have Cap space for deadline deals.

Agree with most. I hope Kupari battles for a spot. I expect him to clear waivers and start the season with the Moose.

I don't mind Names at 2C but I hope Perfetti claims the job.

 

[surixon]

Turnovers are not an issue with Connor. Since 17/18 he sits 16th on the Jets /60. So we are supposed to replace him with Ehlers who is 5th? the only other Jet who played significant time and was worse than Ehlers for turnovers is Laine.

Even your chart shows the LW gives up more shots from the point than Connor. And the big heat is infront of the net. That's the responsibility of the centre and defense.

Using these blanket stats that input 10 players on the ice and attributing the output to one player is dubious at best. At worst you find what you are trying to find by starting at the answer and work backwards.

The issue is he gets outscored in terms of actual goals unless he is separated from Mark. He does well with Perfetti in terms of outscoring and did well with Dubois as well. Him and Scheifele just stink together and really shouldn't be played outside of the pp or 3 on 3 as a unit.

I'd like to see this:

KC Perfetti Vilardi speed and scoring, two/way playmaking and two/way size.

Put Fly with Mark and give them Nino for RW.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

WARNING: TLDR Thunder storm at the lake this morning post.


New seasons are a bit of a crap shoot.

I was listening to NHL network on XM season ending GM report Cards yesterday and Boomer Gordon gave Chevy and A grade. It was nice to hear an outsiders perspective. He recapped pretty well that after the Vegas loss, Bones melt down, PLD wanting out, Wheeler needing to be bought out, and the rumors of Scheifele and Helly wanting out he thought the Jets were going to have to tear it down.

He felt getting Helle and Schief done, PLD moved for a good package, then the type of season the team had where they gave up the fewest goals in the NHL while having no trouble scoring was pretty much as good as it gets for a GM’s effort given how dire things had looked.

Honestly before that report I had been reflecting a bit more on how good last season was and how much fun it was to watch our team most nights. Of course there were ups and downs but 52-24-6 for 110 points was outstanding.

The playoffs really REALLY soured me but I am starting to at least be able to appreciate what that team got done in the regular season.

It leads me to believe that Mark and TNSE will head into this season with some confidence that they have a good hockey team. I don’t expect any panic.

Now to 2024-2025 projections that is interesting. I will wait to see what our final roster looks like. August is always quite.

Things I am currently pondering (I will probably make full predictions before the season):

Can Arniel keep the team playing that (“Jets hockey”) defensive, pressure, system the Jets played last season?

How will the goaltending do this season?

What is the over under for Gabe on games played? I am expecting 50ish.

Will any prospect emerge (Ville or Lambert)

How will Hail Mary Alphy do on the Moose/Jets.

How will Cole’s season go under a new coach.

How will the new coaching staff perform.

Obviously it will be interesting to follow the loose ends (Ehlers status, Mr Magoo)


I think this is still a good hockey team but we captured lightning in a bottle last season and that team overachieved in the regular season IMO.

Who's Hail Mary Alphy?

Which team is the real Jets, regular season or PO?
I think it is somewhere in between. The pair of top 6 F rentals appeared to do more harm than good in the PO but they are gone. Regular season Jets did overachieve though. So I expect a step back. How big a step is tough to guess. The competition in the Central appears to have gotten better.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

For me a successful season includes a step back points wise while integrating young players. If Heinola, Samberg, Perfetti and one of Lambert or Chibrikov are fully entrenched and succeeding in their roles by the end of the year and the Jets get 95-100 points, huge success.

If they managed to integrate that much youth and have them succeeding in their roles I would expect a step back. That would not be a bad thing as I think it would be limited to 1 or 2 years. The next year add Salomonsson, the other of Lambert or Chib and Barlow and we are looking at a rebuilt team. And we would have also added to our prospect pool.

Not sure who all are out with all that youth coming in.

 

[LowLefty]

No, the Jets lost because they collapsed to the net by the time McKinnon or Makar hit centre. That left the middle of the ice open in their end. All the Stars did was defend the middle of the ice and made sure the pass couldn't get to the trailer in the middle. There's no math to it. Just watching what the other team is having success and getting in the way of it.

I agree - this was a least part of it -
I'd add that they didn't get much done in the Nzone like they did all season - that's where you need to disrupt the Aves because they will dominate if you give them your zone.
Lots of work required when attempting to shut down (or slow down) the Aves - we didn't have it or were too caught up in the speed the Aves brought.
A team with the Jets talent level need to work hard and play a very structured game (defensive) if they want to compete with a team like the Aves.

 

[Whileee]

Turnovers are not an issue with Connor. Since 17/18 he sits 16th on the Jets /60. So we are supposed to replace him with Ehlers who is 5th? the only other Jet who played significant time and was worse than Ehlers for turnovers is Laine.

Even your chart shows the LW gives up more shots from the point than Connor. And the big heat is infront of the net. That's the responsibility of the centre and defense.

Using these blanket stats that input 10 players on the ice and attributing the output to one player is dubious at best. At worst you find what you are trying to find by starting at the answer and work backwards.

I didn't reference the volume of turnovers per se, but rather the location and timing, and that wasn't based on stats per se, but rather on observing play for many games. By the way, I think turnover stats are much more dubious than shot volumes and locations, which are more reliably measured.

As I noted above, a winger can indirectly contribute to high rates of high danger shots through more in-zone or neutral zone turnovers or failed zone exits that result in more rush chances or zone time against.

Regardless, the basic shot and goal stats very clearly show that the Jets give up more shots and goals against when Connor is on the ice, even after adjusting for score, venue, and players on the ice. It's too consistent to just be coincidence, so there must be an explanation, which is what I've tried to explain above.

Just to recap one basic statistic... Over the past 5 seasons at 5v5 opponents score against the Jets 1.8 times as often (on a per minute basis) when Connor is on the ice than when Ehlers is on the ice. That's based on over 5000 minutes for Connor and over 4000 minutes for Ehlers. It can't just be bad luck. I've explained why I think it happens. What would be your analysis and explanation as to why the Jets give up so many more goals when Connor is on the ice?

 

[LowLefty]

Just to recap one basic statistic... Over the past 5 seasons at 5v5 opponents score against the Jets 1.8 times as often (on a per minute basis) when Connor is on the ice than when Ehlers is on the ice. That's based on over 5000 minutes for Connor and over 4000 minutes for Ehlers. It can't just be bad luck. I've explained why I think it happens. What would be your analysis and explanation as to why the Jets give up so many more goals when Connor is on the ice?

The line is not good defensively - and as you noted, the biggest issue is zone exits.
A lot of that comes from the way that line plays in their own end - and the fact that 55 is not a good defensive center.
Lots of chaos where the defensive is unsupported by a center who will chip in on those puck battles - so the outlet is a ring around the boards to you know who.
KC is not going to be effective on zone exits if he is trying to pick up outlets along the walls and in battle with a dman - he's not built for it and would be much more effective picking up open ice outlets and turning it up ice.
That rarely happens when that "Line" is on the ice.

 

[Buffdog]

I didn't reference the volume of turnovers per se, but rather the location and timing, and that wasn't based on stats per se, but rather on observing play for many games. By the way, I think turnover stats are much more dubious than shot volumes and locations, which are more reliably measured.

As I noted above, a winger can indirectly contribute to high rates of high danger shots through more in-zone or neutral zone turnovers or failed zone exits that result in more rush chances or zone time against.

Regardless, the basic shot and goal stats very clearly show that the Jets give up more shots and goals against when Connor is on the ice, even after adjusting for score, venue, and players on the ice. It's too consistent to just be coincidence, so there must be an explanation, which is what I've tried to explain above.

Just to recap one basic statistic... Over the past 5 seasons at 5v5 opponents score against the Jets 1.8 times as often (on a per minute basis) when Connor is on the ice than when Ehlers is on the ice. That's based on over 5000 minutes for Connor and over 4000 minutes for Ehlers. It can't just be bad luck. I've explained why I think it happens. What would be your analysis and explanation as to why the Jets give up so many more goals when Connor is on the ice?

Ehlers is definitely elite at zone exits, but he also seems to turn pucks over at the offensive zone blueline. I'm not sure about the frequency, but I do notice it when it happens because coaches HATE turnovers at both bluelines because of the counterattack that they cause (the resto of the team is moving in the wrong direction)

As for the scoring rates, I'd be curious to see how much the gap narrows once stregth of competition is controlled for. It seems obvious that Ehlers makes the top line better vs Connor, but usually ehlers is either being played with Schief and Connor or Connor is injured. There haven't been many instances where they've swapped spots... but Connor Monahan Perfetti was a great line in the limited minutes they got when Bones reunited ESL

 

[Whileee]

Ehlers is definitely elite at zone exits, but he also seems to turn pucks over at the offensive zone blueline. I'm not sure about the frequency, but I do notice it when it happens because coaches HATE turnovers at both bluelines because of the counterattack that they cause (the resto of the team is moving in the wrong direction)

As for the scoring rates, I'd be curious to see how much the gap narrows once stregth of competition is controlled for. It seems obvious that Ehlers makes the top line better vs Connor, but usually ehlers is either being played with Schief and Connor or Connor is injured. There haven't been many instances where they've swapped spots... but Connor Monahan Perfetti was a great line in the limited minutes they got when Bones reunited ESL

After adjusting for teammates and competition, the Jets still give up way more goals and expected goals per 60 minutes when Connor is on the ice.

 

[Jet]

Turnovers are not an issue with Connor. Since 17/18 he sits 16th on the Jets /60. So we are supposed to replace him with Ehlers who is 5th? the only other Jet who played significant time and was worse than Ehlers for turnovers is Laine.

Even your chart shows the LW gives up more shots from the point than Connor. And the big heat is infront of the net. That's the responsibility of the centre and defense.

Using these blanket stats that input 10 players on the ice and attributing the output to one player is dubious at best. At worst you find what you are trying to find by starting at the answer and work backwards.

I was going to say.

Connor doesn't turn the puck over much. If he doesn't have a play, he flips it deep and pursues it.

He doesn't really have much risk in his game when he has the puck on his stick.

His problem is getting the puck back (or even just out) when it's in our zone.

He is pretty good at stripping pucks though.

 

[Flair Hay]

Using stats to define Connor as poor defensively is peak misuse of stats to create a narrative.

People act like Connor is a centre or defenseman on the ice. He's a winger and not only a winger he's the F1 winger, the position that has the least defensive impact on the ice.

I would call his position a mitigating factor in the impact. Just like him playing with Scheifele is a mitigating factor.

If you think the characterization of him being poor defensively is unfair, I'm open to hearing why. Same with Scheifele, who does play center, I guess.

Even with that said... I feel like labeling him poor, below average, not great with negligible impact as F1, etc isn't the point.

Most folks here the issue is Scheifele and Connor both not being good defensively, so it compounds their respective issues. The issue is when those two us our top line, that line is not very good. Like at all. Among the worst top lines in the NHL.

Edit: after re-reading my post I feel a need to double down here. I was emphasizing the need to split up Scheifele and Connor in defending Connor's value to the team.

"Using stats to create a narrative" is a pretty much saying that I am full of shit lol

How do you feel about Connor and Scheifele together vs Ehlers and Scheifele? Is that a made up narrative? Or just the part about Connor?

 

[Flair Hay]

After adjusting for teammates and competition, the Jets still give up way more goals and expected goals per 60 minutes when Connor is on the ice.

We can label him how we like, respectively. But this is the meat and potatoes of it

 

[LowLefty]

I would call his position a mitigating factor in the impact. Just like him playing with Scheifele is a mitigating factor.

If you think the characterization of him being poor defensively is unfair, I'm open to hearing why. Same with Scheifele, who does play center, I guess.

Even with that said... I feel like labeling him poor, below average, not great with negligible impact as F1, etc isn't the point.

Most folks here the issue is Scheifele and Connor both not being good defensively, so it compounds their respective issues. The issue is when those two us our top line, that line is not very good. Like at all. Among the worst top lines in the NHL.

The better question might be, why is KC better with other centers - and why is 55 better with other wingers
The answers have been discussed to death -
KC will be better playing with a center that is decent defensively.
55 will be better with a winger who can take care of outlets with minimal playmaking involved (Ehlers).

And mitigating factors are important if you want to dig into issues and sort out the "whys"