Winnipeg Jets going into the 24/25 season

[surixon]

Why bring up Schief at all if we're talking about Ehlers, if not to compare them?

Not sure if you noticed, but I DID use crashes per number of flights in my example. I deliberately made the number of flights per crash gigantic to illustrate a point, while at the same time making the relative difference also seem significant - also to make my point

Your last paragraph is a misrepresentation of my stance. You should always try to ice a team with as many good players that produce positive outcomes as possible. But downgrading one of them doesn't tank the whole team, which has been my point from the start


Very few players will hurt as much as people are making it seem in this situation. We're talking generational guys, cornerstones of franchises, etc.

For all the *'s associated with Ehlers greatness (5v5, P/60, goal diff, etc), he's a 60 point winger at the end of the day

I feel our problems will largely be the same with or without him.

Our second line performed extremely well weather it was Ehlers or Perfetti driving the line. We still have Cole to drive it and fun fact is that both Fly and Perfetti performed better away from each other. I don't anticipate our second line taking much of a hit without Ehlers if Chevy can bring in some good players that fit with Cole.

Where we remain vulnerable is our first line. But given this orgs insistence to play KC and Mark together, having fly here doesn't change that performance if he's not used there.

 

[Buffdog]

I don't necessarily disagree with your first point but boiling down Ehlers to a 60 point winger I think completely misses the point that points are not the best way to judge a player and all of the numbers provided give a much more accurate depiction of who he is as a player.

I don't think losing Ehlers tanks the season by any means but I find it very hard to think that we won't miss him. We have not had much 5v5 success in our top 6 apart from people playing with him over the past few years tbh.

Did I ever say we wouldn't miss him? I'm just saying that it won't be the catastrophe that people are making it out to be. People seem to love putting words in my mouth. It goes back to that "shades of grey" thing I posted a while ago I guess

OK, fair enough. Ignore Scheifele. Ehlers contribution is a RELATIVELY big plus during the regular season. So he is a big loss, if we don't get a strong return.

I'll give you a big picture vs little picture POV comparison. Looking at moving Ehlers, I have been hoping we get a now return, as close as possible to full value. We are in win now mode so that seems a must.

Some posters are suggesting our return will likely be futures or that the value will be higher if it is futures.

The small picture is 'win now'. But in the big picture futures will pay off down the line. Maybe they mature as Scheifele and Helle decline and the futures are enough to extend our window. I think that is a legitimate big vs small picture situation and everyone can choose for themselves which side to come down on. It is 2 legitimate ways of looking at the situation.

Your first paragraph contradicts itself. You say he's a relatively big loss.. which isn't in dispute. But you then use that conclusion to say he'd be a big absolute loss. He won't be... if you're gonna make that claim, then use absolute numbers

 

[Buffdog]

I feel our problems will largely be the same with or without him.

Our second line performed extremely well weather it was Ehlers or Perfetti driving the line. We still have Cole to drive it and fun fact is that both Fly and Perfetti performed better away from each other. I don't anticipate our second line taking much of a hit without Ehlers if Chevy can bring in some good players that fit with Cole.

Where we remain vulnerable is our first line. But given this orgs insistence to play KC and Mark together, having fly here doesn't change that performance if he's not used there.

People need to come to terms that Connor and Schief will play together as long as they want to, unless a coach can come in and find a way to get through to Schief that the last two haven't been able to

 

[surixon]

People need to come to terms that Connor and Schief will play together as long as they want to, unless a coach can come in and find a way to get through to Schief that the last two haven't been able to

Exactly!

 

[Gm0ney]

Why bring up Schief at all if we're talking about Ehlers, if not to compare them?

Not sure if you noticed, but I DID use crashes per number of flights in my example. I deliberately made the number of flights per crash gigantic to illustrate a point, while at the same time making the relative difference also seem significant - also to make my point

Your last paragraph is a misrepresentation of my stance. You should always try to ice a team with as many good players that produce positive outcomes as possible. But downgrading one of them doesn't tank the whole team, which has been my point from the start


Very few players will hurt as much as people are making it seem in this situation. We're talking generational guys, cornerstones of franchises, etc.

For all the *'s associated with Ehlers greatness (5v5, P/60, goal diff, etc), he's a 60 point winger at the end of the day

Saying Ehlers is just a 60 point winger is probably underestimating his impact.

More important than his individual production is that he makes his linemates better - especially Scheifele.

 

[Buffdog]

Saying Ehlers is just a 60 point winger is probably underestimating his impact.

More important than his individual production is that he makes his linemates better - especially Scheifele.

A player can't "make another player better". They are what they are

They can make another player's results better, likely by compensating for their deficiencies in some way.

Assuming that's what you meant... it's a moot point since the two of them are unlikely to spend much time playing together anyway by the looks of things

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Did I ever say we wouldn't miss him? I'm just saying that it won't be the catastrophe that people are making it out to be. People seem to love putting words in my mouth. It goes back to that "shades of grey" thing I posted a while ago I guess


Your first paragraph contradicts itself. You say he's a relatively big loss.. which isn't in dispute. But you then use that conclusion to say he'd be a big absolute loss. He won't be... if you're gonna make that claim, then use absolute numbers

I still don't get your point. What absolute numbers would you like to use? He was in on ~24% of our goals last year. That is a lot in the big picture. How many wins does that translate to?

A players' impact isn't limited solely to his points scored. He brings speed to a team that generally lacks it. He brings zone exits and entries to a team that struggles with them. He draws a lot of penalties. That may not be very significant since our PP is so weak. But there is a lot of potential there if the PP can be improved.

I'm not trying to say that the team will tank without him. Some of his contributions will be replaced even if we traded him for a pair of socks. More if we get a decent return. Someone will play in his spot and contribute something. But if you think he won't be missed I think you are mistaken.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Did I ever say we wouldn't miss him? I'm just saying that it won't be the catastrophe that people are making it out to be. People seem to love putting words in my mouth. It goes back to that "shades of grey" thing I posted a while ago I guess

Then what are we arguing about?
He will be missed.
The Sun will rise in the East tomorrow.

That said, I think it will be a big loss if we don't get a decent return. But I stop short of catastrophic.

Look at our top 6 without Ehlers:
Connor - Scheifele - Vilardi
xxx - Perfetti - yyy

We could retain Monahan as 2C, or play Namestnikov there. If we don't come up with a better option somewhere I would just as soon go with Namestnikov. The only advantage to keeping Monahan would be his PP effectiveness.

So it becomes:
Perfetti - Namestnikov - yyy

Say that yyy is Lambert. Still looks like a pretty weak top 6 to me. And what happens during Vilardi's 25 games injured?

We spent most of last year celebrating our F depth. It wasn't as good as we thought and it is a lot less without Nik.

 

[Hank Chinaski]

Saying Ehlers is just a 60 point winger is probably underestimating his impact.

More important than his individual production is that he makes his linemates better - especially Scheifele.

A 60 point winger despite secondary usage (15-16 min average per game, mostly stuck on PP2 unit) is damn impressive.

Put another way: not that hard to imagine Ehlers as an 80+ point winger on a team where he gets used as a top line player.

Which is a shitty thing to imagine, as I type it. I’d rather imagine just swapping his deployment with Kyle Connor’s usage…

 

[10Ducky10]

Ehlers is better than Scheif or KC yada yada yada...
Ehlers has better 5v5 numbers than Scheif or KC yada yada yada...
Ehlers drives his line more than Scheif or KC yada yada yada...

Which player is missed more when he doesn't play?
I'll give you a hint, it isn't Ehlers or KC.

 

[Buffdog]

Ehlers is better than Scheif or KC yada yada yada...
Ehlers has better 5v5 numbers than Scheif or KC yada yada yada...
Ehlers drives his line more than Scheif or KC yada yada yada...

Which player is missed more when he doesn't play?
I'll give you a hint, it isn't Ehlers or KC.

That stretch of games this season when Schief went down was downright depressing

 

[voyageur]

Saying Ehlers is just a 60 point winger is probably underestimating his impact.

More important than his individual production is that he makes his linemates better - especially Scheifele.

I can't remember ever seeing Ehlers dog a puck in the corners, mano a mano against a physical d-man to set up Scheif with a scoring chance. Every player brings something different to the team. When Ehlers is skating both ends of the rink he makes his lines better...hopefully Chevy gets a good return on him, better than the Dubois deal.

 

[CorgisPer60]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1800912018544971951

Scott Arniel coming in hot with effusive praise of Ehlers. Really hope Chevy convinces him to re-up, because he will be _very_ hard to replace.

 

[Buffdog]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1800912018544971951

Scott Arniel coming in hot with effusive praise of Ehlers. Really hope Chevy convinces him to re-up, because he will be _very_ hard to replace.

I'm starting to think that Arniel has an account on here lol

There are a few posters that could be candidates

 

[Eyeseeing]

I'm starting to think that Arniel has an account on here lol

There are a few posters that could be candidates

The negativity around Ehlers here borders on irrationality

 

[ps241]

The negativity around Ehlers here borders on irrationality

Nothing new though our HFBoards fan base needs scapegoats. I think it’s made worse by the passionate Nik fans not laying down and going along with it. It’s the debate that keeps the fire burning.

Nothing is as bad as the dark days of the Lainiacs invading our board and pimping out “the” chosen one that we were holding back.

 

[Buffdog]

The negativity around Ehlers here borders on irrationality

I don't see it

Pointing out flaws and facts about a player isn't negativity, it's objectivity

If anything, it swings to irrational positivity towards the guy with certain posters more than anything

I think the most common mindset that I've seen (which is the camp that I'm in) is "I'd love if he stays, but if he has it in his mind to move on, I hope chevy gets a good return for him"

Nothing new though our HFBoards fan base needs scapegoats. I think it’s made worse by the passionate Nik fans not laying down and going along with it. It’s the debate that keeps the fire burning.

Nothing is as bad as the dark days of the Lainiacs invading our board and pimping out “the” chosen one that we were holding back.

To me, the new scapegoat on here is the Schief/Connor duo and any coach that deploys it

 

[WolfHouse]

I don't see it

Pointing out flaws and facts about a player isn't negativity, it's objectivity

If anything, it swings to irrational positivity towards the guy with certain posters more than anything

I think the most common mindset that I've seen (which is the camp that I'm in) is "I'd love if he stays, but if he has it in his mind to move on, I hope chevy gets a good return for him"


To me, the new scapegoat on here is the Schief/Connor duo and any coach that deploys it

It's hard to tell if you're reading your own posts...

 

[Buffdog]

It's hard to tell if you're reading your own posts...

Here we go again lol..

Why don't you quote a few for us to chat about?

 

[ps241]

I don't see it

Pointing out flaws and facts about a player isn't negativity, it's objectivity

If anything, it swings to irrational positivity towards the guy with certain posters more than anything

I think the most common mindset that I've seen (which is the camp that I'm in) is "I'd love if he stays, but if he has it in his mind to move on, I hope chevy gets a good return for him"


To me, the new scapegoat on here is the Schief/Connor duo and any coach that deploys it

That is one of them for sure. Ehlers and Helle have the gold and silver medal positions currently based on them being the major reasons we got embarrassed in the playoffs and obviously Ehlers being on the hot seat as far as what do we do with him now.

Jets fan base is not alone. Every Canadian fan base has the disease.

 

[KingBogo]

That is one of them for sure. Ehlers and Helle have the gold and silver medal positions currently based on them being the major reasons we got embarrassed in the playoffs and obviously Ehlers being on the hot seat as far as what do we do with him now.

Jets fan base is not alone. Every Canadian fan base has the disease.

Yeah, it is Ehlers time to be the scapegoat, after cruising through most of his time in Winnipeg being one of the golden boys. At this point it is really only Morrissey that hasn't felt this boards rathe yet. But his time will no doubt come when age catches up with him, especially if he signs a too long legacy contract after his current one. Of course the prospects are all gold until they play in the NHL, then the warts will soon get magnified.

 

[voyageur]

That is one of them for sure. Ehlers and Helle have the gold and silver medal positions currently based on them being the major reasons we got embarrassed in the playoffs and obviously Ehlers being on the hot seat as far as what do we do with him now.

Jets fan base is not alone. Every Canadian fan base has the disease.

I still think Neal Pionk won the gold medal in this event...he truly got pitchforked after the series loss, and he wasn't good in game 5 at all. You could even say the whole series especially game 2 on. Regular season was meh...Ehlers has always had a fanbase. I would describe that fanbase as very similar to the one that couldn't let Jacob Trouba go, as the analytics always favoured him...

But you are right it's a Canadian passion to want to win and when you don't somebody takes the blame.

 

[ps241]

I still think Neal Pionk won the gold medal in this event...he truly got pitchforked after the series loss, and he wasn't good in game 5 at all. You could even say the whole series especially game 2 on. Regular season was meh...Ehlers has always had a fanbase. I would describe that fanbase as very similar to the one that couldn't let Jacob Trouba go, as the analytics always favoured him...

But you are right it's a Canadian passion to want to win and when you don't somebody takes the blame.

Pionk has been a whipping boy for a while. I am all for players getting critiqued within reason.

My only push back to singling out individuals when it comes to our playoff failure is that our team sucked as a group, we didn’t get close to playing the defensive style of game that got us 110 points in the regular season and that was 98% of the problem when it comes to our controllable variables.

The other shit about identifying what players were worse is cool but it’s a distraction getting in the way of the real problem. Our “team” sucked as a group.

 

[KingBogo]

Pionk has been a whipping boy for a while. I am all for players getting critiqued within reason.

My only push back to singling out individuals when it comes to our playoff failure is that our team sucked as a group, we didn’t get close to playing the defensive style of game that got us 110 points in the regular season and that was 98% of the problem when it comes to our controllable variables.

The other shit about identifying what players were worse is cool but it’s a distraction getting in the way of the real problem. Our “team” sucked as a group.

Agree 100%. That's why you never see anyone attached to the team do it, singling out players does far more harm than good. Arniel like other coaches will take a strength based approach and help players identify what the do well and then try to maximize it, while minimizing the holes as best they can with line mates and usage within the system.

 

[Weezeric]

I still think Neal Pionk won the gold medal in this event...he truly got pitchforked after the series loss, and he wasn't good in game 5 at all. You could even say the whole series especially game 2 on. Regular season was meh...Ehlers has always had a fanbase. I would describe that fanbase as very similar to the one that couldn't let Jacob Trouba go, as the analytics always favoured him...

But you are right it's a Canadian passion to want to win and when you don't somebody takes the blame.

Samberg-Pionk was actually a great pair last year. If they’re together next year, I would be happy with that.