Winnipeg Jets going into the 24/25 season

[Jack7222]

But he scores. Yeah maybe he doesn't look pretty doing it. He gets the job done. Ehlers looks really pretty when he does his thing. He just doesn't get results.

I don't quite understand this Ehlers criticism, and the ones from others who say he's "good on paper" or "analytics nerds love him" or whatever.

It's one thing to point to his lack of playoff production (which is abysmal) but during the regular season he is all results... he gets better results 5 v 5 than anyone.

Personally I do think he could be successful in the playoffs if he were built around a little better, but I don't think I'll be that put out if he's the one traded for help. I just hope we don't see a big 5 v 5 regression when our best player is gone

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Welll... maybe, just MAYBE *crossing fingers* the org realizes that how they roll ain't getting it done.

Chipman is probably freaking out a bit now as they just started to take steps to repair the fan attrition problem and this first round exit, particularly the way they lost is going to really hurt them IMO.

I'd venture a guess that many fans are like me - we of course want to win a cup, but we are realistic. We are all in on a team that gives every last bit and fights til the end, regardless of end result. What we aren't interested in is watching a bunch of guys who just bend over when shit gets tough.

If we run this back next year, of course I will still be a Jets fan - I always will be. However, I will be a LOT less invested. I have trusted this team way too many times and I can't take this disappointment any more. At the end of the day, you have to ask yourself "If this is supposed to be entertainment, a hobby, and bring me joy, is it? Or, is it just making me miserable"

Of course, I'm not in Winnipeg, but if I was, that would mean that maybe I go to 5 games instead of 20.

 

[gojetsgo]

I don't quite understand this Ehlers criticism, and the ones from others who say he's "good on paper" or "analytics nerds love him" or whatever.

It's one thing to point to his lack of playoff production (which is abysmal) but during the regular season he is all results... he gets better results 5 v 5 than anyone.

Personally I do think he could be successful in the playoffs if he were built around a little better, but I don't think I'll be that put out if he's the one traded for help. I just hope we don't see a big 5 v 5 regression when our best player is gone

ehlers is not our best player

 

[DRW204]

I don't quite understand this Ehlers criticism, and the ones from others who say he's "good on paper" or "analytics nerds love him" or whatever.

It's one thing to point to his lack of playoff production (which is abysmal) but during the regular season he is all results... he gets better results 5 v 5 than anyone.

Personally I do think he could be successful in the playoffs if he were built around a little better, but I don't think I'll be that put out if he's the one traded for help. I just hope we don't see a big 5 v 5 regression when our best player is gone

The criticism is he doesn't perform in the PO's (V bad) like he does in the regular season (V good). You can't understand that?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I'm starting to feel this sentiment as well. I'd like to see a fresh approach to things as what we are doing isn't leading to improved playoff performance.

If it were up to me I'd be doing a retool youth infusion year:

Chibrikov - Scheifele Vilardi
KC - Perfetti - Nino
Iafallo - Lowry - Appelton
Barron - Namestnikov - Lambert

JoMo - Trade return from Ehelers
Snerg Pionk
Ville DeMelo

Salomonsson takes Pionk's spot in a year.

I realize this is your preference, not your prediction. But I wish people would stop posting lineups without Ehlers AND with KC not with Scheifele. If Bones is the coach, they will be together. If the coach, whoever it is, lets his star players pick their own linemates, they will be together. What new coach is going to start by telling those 2 they can't be together?

There are 2 reasons for Ehlers being moved. 1. Usage means he will not re-sign here. 2. Lack of PO production.

1 is almost certainly there. No argument from me on moving him. Therefore fixing the usage gets him to stay. 2 I will buy into when we have a PO where the team plays well but Nik is the weakest link. Piling on him for lack of production when the whole team was bad is just picking a whipping boy.

Otherwise I like this.

 

[CaptainUgly]

I realize this is your preference, not your prediction. But I wish people would stop posting lineups without Ehlers AND with KC not with Scheifele. If Bones is the coach, they will be together. If the coach, whoever it is, lets his star players pick their own linemates, they will be together. What new coach is going to start by telling those 2 they can't be together?

There are 2 reasons for Ehlers being moved. 1. Usage means he will not re-sign here. 2. Lack of PO production.

1 is almost certainly there. No argument from me on moving him. Therefore fixing the usage gets him to stay. 2 I will buy into when we have a PO where the team plays well but Nik is the weakest link. Piling on him for lack of production when the whole team was bad is just picking a whipping boy.

Otherwise I like this.

Agreed. Now tquestion is what is 1 year of Ehlers before UFA worth to the league? Ie what's the realistic return?

 

[Jack7222]

The criticism is he doesn't perform in the PO's (V bad) like he does in the regular season (V good). You can't understand that?

I might have been unclear. I totally understand the playoff criticism, because he was terrible.

I don't understand the more general criticism that he's 'good on paper' or 'good in terms of analytics but not results'. During the reg season his results are fantastic, and he certainly wasn't good analytically in the playoffs.

ehlers is not our best player

To be more specific, he's our most prolific 5 v 5 player in terms of results/toi. Top line without him is a below average top line, top line with him is a very good top line. Again, reg season, obviously.

 

[DRW204]

I might have been unclear. I totally understand the playoff criticism, because he was terrible.

I don't understand the more general criticism that he's 'good on paper' or 'good in terms of analytics but not results'. During the reg season his results are fantastic, and he certainly wasn't good analytically in the playoffs.

OK might have misinterpreted your post + the OP you quoted.

The main beef, thst I see is

People put him in this higher tier of regular season Fwds, which he deserves. But in the PO's he's not performing similarly to those players, and people just pour on excuses or what aboutisms with other (usually inferior) players.

 

[Dirtbag151]

Agreed. Now tquestion is what is 1 year of Ehlers before UFA worth to the league? Ie what's the realistic return?

really what was Toffoli worth as a rental a 2nd ?....maybe Ehlers gets a 1st plus ...maybe a mid level D i guess it depends if analytics really matter as much as people on here seem to think

 

[Jack7222]

OK might have misinterpreted your post + the OP you quoted.

The main beef, thst I see is

People put him in this higher tier of regular season Fwds, which he deserves. But in the PO's he's not performing similarly to those players, and people just pour on excuses or what aboutisms with other (usually inferior) players.

Yeah I agree with that. I don't see too many people defending him much, though. At least to his small credit we can say that he wasn't singularly bad, and his linemates were also terrible, but yeah.

 

[DRW204]

Yeah I agree with that. I don't see too many people defending him much, though. At least to his small credit we can say that he wasn't singularly bad, and his linemates were also terrible, but yeah.

Lol so deflect on to his linemates. Who is supposed to be the line driver, top fwd in the league in a myriad of 5v5 stats.... Ehlers or Monahan /Tofolli? The latter weren't good, but their expectation or standards are lower than ehlers. If not, then ehlers isn't in the high tier that folks claim.

 

[gojetsgo]

Agreed. Now tquestion is what is 1 year of Ehlers before UFA worth to the league? Ie what's the realistic return?

something with chychrun involved?

 

[Maukkis]

I realize this is your preference, not your prediction. But I wish people would stop posting lineups without Ehlers AND with KC not with Scheifele. If Bones is the coach, they will be together. If the coach, whoever it is, lets his star players pick their own linemates, they will be together. What new coach is going to start by telling those 2 they can't be together?

Someone gets it, at least. This is also why the move is to stop overreacting to playoff sample sizes and to trade Connor - break up a combination that simply doesn't cut it either in the regular season or in the playoffs, while likely getting a better return in a trade.

We cannot go into next year with 81-55 permanently intact and Ehlers gone. The risk of the entire top 6 being irreversibly broken would be too large, especially when we already know most of the likely pitfalls (terrible 1st line, no 2C, no trust in the youth, lack of the team's best offensive driver).

 

[Adam da bomb]

Someone gets it, at least. This is also why the move is to stop overreacting to playoff sample sizes and to trade Connor - break up a combination that simply doesn't cut it either in the regular season or in the playoffs, while likely getting a better return in a trade.

We cannot go into next year with 81-55 permanently intact and Ehlers gone. The risk of the entire top 6 being irreversibly broken would be too large, especially when we already know most of the likely pitfalls (terrible 1st line, no 2C, no trust in the youth, lack of the team's best offensive driver).

There is no combination where we don’t go in with 81-55 it’s written in stone. Until one of them retires they will be together, regardless of what 27 does.

 

[Maukkis]

There is no combination where we don’t go in with 81-55 it’s written in stone. Until one of them retires they will be together, regardless of what 27 does.

Good, you're getting the hang of this.

Besides, it doesn't even have to be 27-55 that we go with. We just need to have Scheifele on a line that wins its match-ups and consistently outscores its opposition, whether that is with Ehlers or not. We know now that Connor ain't the linemate that achieves this, so unless our coach breaks them up, we need to offload 81.

 

[Buffdog]

Good, you're getting the hang of this.

Besides, it doesn't even have to be 27-55 that we go with. We just need to have Scheifele on a line that wins its match-ups and consistently outscores its opposition, whether that is with Ehlers or not. We know now that Connor ain't the linemate that achieves this.

Is that realistic considering that schief was 22nd in C scoring this year and regression will start soon, if it hasn't already?

I'm not sure if it's possible to build a line around him that will win matchups consistently. Him and Ehlers look like they can do it at least sometimes and for stretches, but it may be unrealistic to expect unless you can bring in a couple of line driving, d-first scoring wingers like prime Mark Stone to playvwith him

 

[Adam da bomb]

Good, you're getting the hang of this.

Besides, it doesn't even have to be 27-55 that we go with. We just need to have Scheifele on a line that wins its match-ups and consistently outscores its opposition, whether that is with Ehlers or not. We know now that Connor ain't the linemate that achieves this, so unless our coach breaks them up, we need to offload 81.

But, this discussion is the definition of hf as we know exactly why Jesse going to do and we are saying don’t do it, but if wpg has a team the two will be together even if it means being knocked out.

 

[Maukkis]

Is that realistic considering that schief was 22nd in C scoring this year and regression will start soon, if it hasn't already?

I'm not sure if it's possible to build a line around him that will win matchups consistently. Him and Ehlers look like they can do it at least sometimes and for stretches, but it may be unrealistic to expect unless you can bring in a couple of line driving, d-first scoring wingers like prime Mark Stone to playvwith him

We haven't tested much of anything else than different Connor- and/or Wheeler-based combinations. Ehlers is the obvious choice, but I wonder if Nino and Gabe could be a good duo with 55?

Since 19-20, the only positive xGF% lines with Connor and Scheifele together and 100+ minutes played were Connor-Scheifele-Ehlers this year, and Connor-Dubois-Scheifele last year. As for Scheifele-only lines, there have been a handful of positive xGF% ones, but most of the linemates have already left the team. With or without KC, we need to try new stuff.

 

[Heldig]

My off-season wish list

1. Craig Berube HC
2. Trade Ehlers
3. Resign Demlo and let Monahan, Toffoli, Dillon walk.
4. Bring up Chibrikov, Lambert, and Heinola.

Hmmm...

Curious what your roster looks like? What does Ehlers return?

I would consider trading Connor instead of Ehlers because the return will be much better IMO.

I also consider signing Monahan.

Would LOVE Berube as HC.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Hmmm...

Curious what your roster looks like? What does Ehlers return?

I would consider trading Connor instead of Ehlers because the return will be much better IMO.

I also consider signing Monahan.

Would LOVE Berube as HC.

I don’t think ppl in power would ever consider trading Connor even if the fans will consider it.

 

[WolfHouse]

Ehlers, Heinola, Schmidt (50% retained) for Sean Durzi

 

[FlappyGiraffe]

Ehlers, Heinola, Schmidt (50% retained) for Sean Durzi

I think that's an enormous overpay. He went for the MTL 2nd last off season

 

[JetsUK]

I don’t think ppl in power would ever consider trading Connor even if the fans will consider it.

This.

KC is part of the core core. He's going nowhere.

If they can't being themselves to move Pionk, who has been different degrees of terrible for years, because critical to core, then KFC will retire a Jet.

 

[WolfHouse]

I think that's an enormous overpay. He went for the MTL 2nd last off season

One year of Ehlers, a prospect we have stuck in limbo and an aging friendly defenceman... for a top RD... I was thinking we'd have to add

 

[Orrrules]

Monahan didn't finish a single check in the playoffs, full pass on him.

Need a second line centre with some grit, sillinger or domi type.