Winnipeg Jets going into the 24/25 season

[Orrrules]

Bigger stronger faster would have made a huge difference against the Avs.

 

[TS Quint]

It is true that Ehlers has never managed to get it done in the PO but I think this is being way overstated. His first PO was the only one where the team around him played well. He was the same age then as Perfetti is now. He was not great that year, but he was not bad either picking up 7 assists in 15 games. Every PO since then the team has been bad. He did not have the advantage of playing on the 1st line, like KC did.

This does not suddenly make his mediocre production good. Just looking at a little context. You could argue that if Ehlers had played better, produced more, maybe those PO teams would have been better. But he could have scored a goal in each game this year and the outcome would have been exactly the same as it was.

I think Ehlers has to be the one to go this off-season but not because of poor PO production. I don't think he will extend here and that means he has to go. Jets can't afford to lose valuable assets like Nik for nothing.

If Ehlers scored 5 goals in 5 games going by his regular season shooting % he would have been taking over 10 shots a game. He also put up more than 40% more assists than goals giving him 7 assist. I think it would make a big difference.

 

[roccerfeller]

Bigger stronger faster would have made a huge difference against the Avs.

Agree, but how do we get that turn over in a year? Not a lot of options in the summer last year that wanted to sign with us or over the TD this year

Lots of chat about Ehlers being a trade target - he’s our fastest offensive player. Losing him is a loss in that regard. We’d have to replace him with someone similarly speed or hope the D man we get back is not a slow, lumbering piece

Avs speed came through drafting. Until we wait for our young guys to come up, many of whom still won’t hold a candle to Makar or Mackinnon speed wise (Lambert is fast though) we just have to optimize best we can

I wouldn’t mind seeing Lambert and Ehlers before we jump on moving him, I know he hasn’t excelled in the POs but outside of his excellent December he didn’t really look comfortable on any line. Started to get some chemistry with Monahan towards the end of the year

 

[roccerfeller]

Not being an analytics guy, can you give any insight into WHAT analytics would enable the Avs to dissect the Jets system so fully?

I can take an uninformed shot at this

For example: Between 2 high stakes playoff games, you have 1 day off and need to make adjustments

You know based on analytic data that combo XYZ makes a very good line for shots on goal or ABC is good for zone entries or 1234 is a good penalty kill combo

And you know that the adjustments needed are 1) more sog 2) better zone entries and 3) better PK, and use that data to help guide the adjustments you make in addition to the usual coaching pointers that are made (I.e some PP drills or whatever)

So when you have 60 mins to practice you can focus on that and hope it makes a difference

Bednar incorporates analytics

 

[Orrrules]

Agree, but how do we get that turn over in a year? Not a lot of options in the summer last year that wanted to sign with us or over the TD this year

Lots of chat about Ehlers being a trade target - he’s our fastest offensive player. Losing him is a loss in that regard. We’d have to replace him with someone similarly speed or hope the D man we get back is not a slow, lumbering piece

Avs speed came through drafting. Until we wait for our young guys to come up, many of whom still won’t hold a candle to Makar or Mackinnon speed wise (Lambert is fast though) we just have to optimize best we can

I wouldn’t mind seeing Lambert and Ehlers before we jump on moving him, I know he hasn’t excelled in the POs but outside of his excellent December he didn’t really look comfortable on any line. Started to get some chemistry with Monahan towards the end of the year

Hey if your defence can't make plays under pressure it doesn't matter. Gotta fix the defence first and the only way to do that is trades and free agents since the cupboard is bare. Has been for years which is all on the draft and develop GM who hasn't done his job.

 

[DudeWhereIsMakar]

Wonder if we'd be a team that could potentially land Mitch Marner. I mean, Ehlers++ could head the other way if we don't retain any salary.

Reason I'm very pro Marner is because I think he and Perfetti would have some of the best chemistry.

 

[Hunter368]

Wonder if we'd be a team that could potentially land Mitch Marner. I mean, Ehlers++ could head the other way if we don't retain any salary.

Reason I'm very pro Marner is because I think he and Perfetti would have some of the best chemistry.

Marner I highly doubt he waives to come here, he will go to another big market I’m sure. TBH I wouldnt even want him.

 

[surixon]

Marner I highly doubt he waives to come here, he will go to another big market I’m sure. TBH I wouldnt even want him.

Yeah, not happening. It wouldn't make much sense even of he would waive as he'd never reup here.

 

[macmaroon]

You do know that wrestling is fake, right?

Thanks for ruining it for me @Mortimer Snerd. Next, you're going to tell me Santa Claus is fake too...

 

[roccerfeller]

Wonder if we'd be a team that could potentially land Mitch Marner. I mean, Ehlers++ could head the other way if we don't retain any salary.

Reason I'm very pro Marner is because I think he and Perfetti would have some of the best chemistry.

I remember ehlers taking some blocked shots at the end of a game in the regular season that the Jets had won in the bag

That type of heart we need on this team - Marner does not have that

For the right piece I’m happy to move ehlers (fortunately we have a good track record with trades overall)

But who we get back can’t just be a regular season stat monkey we need some heart

 

[kanadalainen]

Thanks for ruining it for me @Mortimer Snerd. Next, you're going to tell me Santa Claus is fake too...

Correct me if necessary, but I believe Santa Claus wrestles in the off-season.

 

[WolfHouse]

Thanks for ruining it for me @Mortimer Snerd. Next, you're going to tell me Santa Claus is fake too...

Worse... he relies on analytics

 

[Heldig]

I can take an uninformed shot at this

For example: Between 2 high stakes playoff games, you have 1 day off and need to make adjustments

You know based on analytic data that combo XYZ makes a very good line for shots on goal or ABC is good for zone entries or 1234 is a good penalty kill combo

And you know that the adjustments needed are 1) more sog 2) better zone entries and 3) better PK, and use that data to help guide the adjustments you make in addition to the usual coaching pointers that are made (I.e some PP drills or whatever)

So when you have 60 mins to practice you can focus on that and hope it makes a difference

Bednar incorporates analytics

So if I am a coach and I observe that player A has a tendency to cheat on dump ins and always turns to his left. So I tell my players when they dump the puck in against player A shoot it hard to the end boards and skate hard to the inside of player A to gain an advantage retrieving the puck...is that analytics or just coaching?

 

[roccerfeller]

So if I am a coach and I observe that player A has a tendency to cheat on dump ins and always turns to his left. So I tell my players when they dump the puck in against player A shoot it hard to the end boards and skate hard to the inside of player A to gain an advantage retrieving the puck...is that analytics or just coaching?

Yes to analytics IF You’d need to rely on data to support that conclusion

The analytics would be the D on this opposing team sucks at stretch passes so when their weakest pair is on the ice I’m going to make sure my fwd line of XYZ are on because the data supports they are the best statistical line at intercepting stretch passes

But this is really, really simplifying it. It’s applied in a multitude of ways. It could be player centric but it could also be line centric. It could be period centric. It could be seasonal trends. It could be a combination of anything. Anything that is a data set that has value. It’s not always against an opposing team, it could even help you optimize your lineup or how you determine who should be called up or placed in what line up to succeed or where they perform best at in special teams

Someone like garret Hohl for example had a vast collection of data and analysis that leads to insights that a team like the Jets could benefit from (shameless garret fan plug)

 

[Zippity]

Jets need DEFENSE!!! And get the dam assistant coaches off the Huddy plan.
How many other teams would also allow a Gm such a long tenure???

 

[CaptainUgly]

Jets need DEFENSE!!! And get the dam assistant coaches off the Huddy plan.
How many other teams would also allow a Gm such a long tenure???

It's pretty comical, right? 13 years, 3 playoff series wins...man the bar is set pretty damn low for that to be acceptable

 

[Adam da bomb]

It's pretty comical, right? 13 years, 3 playoff series wins...man the bar is set pretty damn low for that to be acceptable

You need that low bar when you are the smallest market and Winnipeg. Most are just happy we have a team. So many times forever rebuilding. Only a few times keep winning and the only small market that seems to do well is Minnesota who lucked into kaprizov.

 

[Buffdog]

Yes to analytics IF You’d need to rely on data to support that conclusion

The analytics would be the D on this opposing team sucks at stretch passes so when their weakest pair is on the ice I’m going to make sure my fwd line of XYZ are on because the data supports they are the best statistical line at intercepting stretch passes

But this is really, really simplifying it. It’s applied in a multitude of ways. It could be player centric but it could also be line centric. It could be period centric. It could be seasonal trends. It could be a combination of anything. Anything that is a data set that has value. It’s not always against an opposing team, it could even help you optimize your lineup or how you determine who should be called up or placed in what line up to succeed or where they perform best at in special teams

Someone like garret Hohl for example had a vast collection of data and analysis that leads to insights that a team like the Jets could benefit from (shameless garret fan plug)

I'd love to see the "advanced stat" on a line "intercepting stretch passes"

That's all good old "watching tape"

I've never seen a single poster use an advanced stat on this forum for suggesting anything aside from line combos

 

[TS Quint]

Teams are going to use "advanced stats" in terms of hockey. They will have a question then work back. People on these forums are backwards hillbillies who think they are using "advanced stats" by starting at the answer and working back to their hypothesis. Surprise, they find what they were looking for instead of actually answering a question.

The Jets will look at high dangers chances. Then they ask what lead to those chances? In the Lowry/ Helle interview Lowry said one of the plays that consistently lead to high danger chances was the Avs going straight through the neutral zone, stopping up and making a cross ice pass to a trailer with speed. Lowry said they were shown and told what they need to do but failed to execute.

The Stars have seen this, they get back, slow down the original puck carrier and to combat the trailer they keep their forwards high in the defensive zone and clog up the middle.

 

[roccerfeller]

I'd love to see the "advanced stat" on a line "intercepting stretch passes"

That's all good old "watching tape"

I've never seen a single poster use an advanced stat on this forum for suggesting anything aside from line combos

like I said my uninformed opinion

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Thanks for ruining it for me @Mortimer Snerd. Next, you're going to tell me Santa Claus is fake too...

I would never tell you that Mac. I've never seen the real Santa, only stand ins in Malls and on TV. How could I judge whether he is fake or not without being able to examine him?

Wrasslin I've seen.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

If Ehlers scored 5 goals in 5 games going by his regular season shooting % he would have been taking over 10 shots a game. He also put up more than 40% more assists than goals giving him 7 assist. I think it would make a big difference.

5 more goals. 1 each game. That is all.
We win game 1, 8-6
game 2, we lose 5-3
game 3, we lose 6-3
game 4, we lose 5-2
game 5, we lose 6-4

 

[TS Quint]

5 more goals. 1 each game. That is all.
We win game 1, 8-6
game 2, we lose 5-3
game 3, we lose 6-3
game 4, we lose 5-2
game 5, we lose 6-4

But you don't just magic 5 goals out of nowhere. You score more when you play better. He didn't play well enough to score a goal/game. In order for him to score those 5 goals statistically there are things that need to happen aka "advanced stats". Expecting 5 magic goals out of his 14 perimeter shots where he was falling down isn't realistic and correctly as you said it doesn't matter.

 

[WolfHouse]

Wonder if we'd be a team that could potentially land Mitch Marner. I mean, Ehlers++ could head the other way if we don't retain any salary.

Reason I'm very pro Marner is because I think he and Perfetti would have some of the best chemistry.

He'll end up in New York for like Zac Jones...

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

But you don't just magic 5 goals out of nowhere. You score more when you play better. He didn't play well enough to score a goal/game. In order for him to score those 5 goals statistically there are things that need to happen aka "advanced stats". Expecting 5 magic goals out of his 14 perimeter shots where he was falling down isn't realistic and correctly as you said it doesn't matter.

Fair enough. I'll rephrase it.
If Ehlers had played better (but no one else did) and scored a goal a game, it would still have been as I listed, or so close as to make no difference.

It was a team loss.