Winnipeg Jets going into the 24/25 season

[KingBogo]

This is one of the things that bother me about our asset management. We could have given Heinola some games to see what we have and then we would know, but instead we are left guessing again in the offseason. Same goes for a few players on the moose.

Heinola has to be at least as good as Pionk and a fraction of the cost and upside potential. But we don’t know now.

I think the key here is we the fans don’t know. The organization may very well feel they have a good handle on where he is in his development.

 

[Buffdog]

I think the key here is we the fans don’t know. The organization may very well feel they have a good handle on where he is in his development.

The Moose coach mentionned in his end of year presser something along the lines of Heinola's skating was finally uo to pre-injury levels by the end of the season

 

[BarnabyJones PI]

Jets looked pretty good when it was CSE as our top line in that last game... wheels came off when Bones took Ehlers off the top line - one way to solve this debate is to actually play Ehlers on the top line for more than 20 games...

It's hard taking people seiously, when they cite Vilardi being in "beast mode" in game 1, with no mention of his linemates...

 

[BoneDocUK]

Usage didn't kill us in the PO's - we were outclassed at every level and the only real hope we had in keeping up with the Aves was to play our best dgame - which we didn't.
I'm fine with getting into the weeds with guys like Perfetti and what he might have added if he was playing his absolute best game(s) ever - but it wouldn't have mattered much. So sure, it's fair to ask if they would have mattered - but they wouldn't have enough to turn that series around.

Not arguing, but I always wonder about who and what might have made enough difference to "turn a series around."

No idea if the series was there for the taking if enough small moves had been made, but let's assume that the Jets aren't hamstringing themselves early in the series by playing one of their best shutdown guys in Samberg on his offside with Stan. Add to that playing Brossoit in game 3 or 4 to spell Helle and hope he then has a bounceback game,

Then the top line optimized, a scoring threat and 2-way responsible player in Perfetti, adapting tactics to deploy a more aggressive PK (we saw this later) look for different exit routes to avoid the Avs pinching and blocking every outlet pass, look to take back the NZ, blah blah blah.

I guess the question for me is less "the Jets need to have a MacKinnon / Makar to win this series" and more "the Jets needed to optimize every single element at their disposal in terms of roster selection, deployment, tactics, etc. in order to maybe win this series, none of which they seemed willing to do.

Weeks on from this one, and I'm still bemused at how strange and passive a series we played. And while the Avs were excellent, their surpassing brilliance doesn't explain the bulk of the Jets' play, IMO.

 

[LowLefty]

Not arguing, but I always wonder about who and what might have made enough difference to "turn a series around."

No idea if the series was there for the taking if enough small moves had been made, but let's assume that the Jets aren't hamstringing themselves early in the series by playing one of their best shutdown guys in Samberg on his offside with Stan. Add to that playing Brossoit in game 3 or 4 to spell Helle and hope he then has a bounceback game,

Then the top line optimized, a scoring threat and 2-way responsible player in Perfetti, adapting tactics to deploy a more aggressive PK (we saw this later) look for different exit routes to avoid the Avs pinching and blocking every outlet pass, look to take back the NZ, blah blah blah.

I guess the question for me is less "the Jets need to have a MacKinnon / Makar to win this series" and more "the Jets needed to optimize every single element at their disposal in terms of roster selection, deployment, tactics, etc. in order to maybe win this series, none of which they seemed willing to do.

Weeks on from this one, and I'm still bemused at how strange and passive a series we played. And while the Avs were excellent, their surpassing brilliance doesn't explain the bulk of the Jets' play, IMO.

The little things always help and you've listed a few of them - but honestly, our 3rd pair D and adding 91 to the lineup are not going to get it done.
The team would have needed to get back on their "team" game and make it difficult for the Aves to get it going -
That means hounding them, closing off space, getting in the routes, blocking shots, winning puck battles, winning net front battles, back checking hard, and winning those races to the puck on our dump-ins.
In other words, playing a tight, high energy defensive game - all of them - and scoring on the turnovers that type of game creates.

 

[Buffdog]

Not arguing, but I always wonder about who and what might have made enough difference to "turn a series around."

No idea if the series was there for the taking if enough small moves had been made, but let's assume that the Jets aren't hamstringing themselves early in the series by playing one of their best shutdown guys in Samberg on his offside with Stan. Add to that playing Brossoit in game 3 or 4 to spell Helle and hope he then has a bounceback game,

Then the top line optimized, a scoring threat and 2-way responsible player in Perfetti, adapting tactics to deploy a more aggressive PK (we saw this later) look for different exit routes to avoid the Avs pinching and blocking every outlet pass, look to take back the NZ, blah blah blah.

I guess the question for me is less "the Jets need to have a MacKinnon / Makar to win this series" and more "the Jets needed to optimize every single element at their disposal in terms of roster selection, deployment, tactics, etc. in order to maybe win this series, none of which they seemed willing to do.

Weeks on from this one, and I'm still bemused at how strange and passive a series we played. And while the Avs were excellent, their surpassing brilliance doesn't explain the bulk of the Jets' play, IMO.

It wasn't who played, or who played with whom that cost us... it was how we played

Shuffling line ups and line combos in the series vs the Avs is akin to rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic

 

[WolfHouse]

It wasn't who played, or who played with whom that cost us... it was how we played

Shuffling line ups and line combos in the series vs the Avs is akin to rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic

Id push back on this one a bit... in our d core, if Samberg is on his natural side - he plays a lot more controlled... if Dillon is not forced to cover for the Pionk blind panic dump outs, he plays better... if Bones has confidence in any other D pairing, then Jomo is not trapped shutting down MacK....

Team spent too much time trying to be 'fair' down the stretch instead of maximizing our lineup - I fully expect Miller to re-emerge next season and have very solid numbers again. I think out of anyone inserting him in the lineup makes a difference.

To not see what a Miller/Dillon pair brought to the table was a huge mistake.

 

[Joe Hallenback]

Not arguing, but I always wonder about who and what might have made enough difference to "turn a series around."

No idea if the series was there for the taking if enough small moves had been made, but let's assume that the Jets aren't hamstringing themselves early in the series by playing one of their best shutdown guys in Samberg on his offside with Stan. Add to that playing Brossoit in game 3 or 4 to spell Helle and hope he then has a bounceback game,

Then the top line optimized, a scoring threat and 2-way responsible player in Perfetti, adapting tactics to deploy a more aggressive PK (we saw this later) look for different exit routes to avoid the Avs pinching and blocking every outlet pass, look to take back the NZ, blah blah blah.

I guess the question for me is less "the Jets need to have a MacKinnon / Makar to win this series" and more "the Jets needed to optimize every single element at their disposal in terms of roster selection, deployment, tactics, etc. in order to maybe win this series, none of which they seemed willing to do.

Weeks on from this one, and I'm still bemused at how strange and passive a series we played. And while the Avs were excellent, their surpassing brilliance doesn't explain the bulk of the Jets' play, IMO.

Its hard to beat teams when they have World Class players who decide to turn it on. Colorado has depth as well their question mark was in net and they just outscored that issue against us.

I think one thing that was highlighted for me was the lack of speed and size up front and on the backend. Everyone talks about Makar and rightfully so but Manson answered every physical challenge we tried and then some.

 

[Orrrules]

Forecheck backcheck paycheck. It's a simple formula.

 

[Buffdog]

Id push back on this one a bit... in our d core, if Samberg is on his natural side - he plays a lot more controlled... if Dillon is not forced to cover for the Pionk blind panic dump outs, he plays better... if Bones has confidence in any other D pairing, then Jomo is not trapped shutting down MacK....

Team spent too much time trying to be 'fair' down the stretch instead of maximizing our lineup - I fully expect Miller to re-emerge next season and have very solid numbers again. I think out of anyone inserting him in the lineup makes a difference.

To not see what a Miller/Dillon pair brought to the table was a huge mistake.

I'm not saying that it wouldn't have made a positive difference, but we still wouldn't have beaten the Avs

The only way we win that series is if we play with the same defensive structure that made us successful all season, but with a ramped up intensity level. AND Helle needed to be Helle.

 

[scelaton]

No idea if the series was there for the taking if enough small moves had been made, but let's assume that the Jets aren't hamstringing themselves early in the series by playing one of their best shutdown guys in Samberg on his offside with Stan. Add to that playing Brossoit in game 3 or 4 to spell Helle and hope he then has a bounceback game,
Then the top line optimized, a scoring threat and 2-way responsible player in Perfetti, adapting tactics to deploy a more aggressive PK (we saw this later) look for different exit routes to avoid the Avs pinching and blocking every outlet pass, look to take back the NZ, blah blah blah.
I guess the question for me is less "the Jets need to have a MacKinnon / Makar to win this series" and more "the Jets needed to optimize every single element at their disposal in terms of roster selection, deployment, tactics, etc. in order to maybe win this series, none of which they seemed willing to do.

Weeks on from this one, and I'm still bemused at how strange and passive a series we played. And while the Avs were excellent, their surpassing brilliance doesn't explain the bulk of the Jets' play, IMO.

Agree with the bolded and the operative word is optimized. The Avs series was not even close, so I doubt anyone truly believes we were a Perfetti or Heinola away from winning. But for an NHL city like Winnipeg and team like the Jets, every decision is important to overcome the long odds of winning a SC. It's really a continuous improvement mindset that I know you are familiar with, but needs to be more widely understood and adopted in hockey. Experience, observation and stats are all part of the mix, but the essence of it is a willingness to challenge the status quo, overcome old biases, try new things, measure the results, change accordingly, and repeat, forever.

I have not consistently seen that with this team and that is what I want to hear from the next coach (and current GM).

 

[Nickel eye Heel hers]

Who had the best +/- on the team? He is the guy Helle wants on the ice. He let's him see the puck. We need more Dillons.

We need less Stanley and Schmidt.
I'd take Heinola over Stanley and give him a chance to replace Schmidt

 

[Nickel eye Heel hers]

Wasn't it Murat that was also saying that Schief and/or Helle were done with the team early last off season?

I wasn't referring to the "journalists" in the echo chamber, I'm talking about the random fans/posters on here who think they're a part of the "movement"

It's almost a nerdy, sports fan version of Q Anon

I look at stats like this, things that have happened on the ice that someone recorded on paper. Only a fool thinks his or her eyes notice everything that happens on the ice in real time.
You keep track of real events that happened during multiple games and sometimes it confirms something you saw or tells you that you've missed something due to biases.
Your eyes may remember a high danger event with a player and ignore team or player success due to that 1 event.
Analytics certainly isn't perfect but it does give more information than just relying on your eyes. Especially after a few beer.

 

[WolfHouse]

I'm not saying that it wouldn't have made a positive difference, but we still wouldn't have beaten the Avs

The only way we win that series is if we play with the same defensive structure that made us successful all season, but with a ramped up intensity level. AND Helle needed to be Helle.

Maybe... but Pionk created a butterfly effect of panic out there... replace him and its a different series

Totally different series if Bones had found a second pairing D that could replace Pionk... Pionk still ate up minutes but not shutting down MacK - that was left to Jomo and wasted his series

 

[Nickel eye Heel hers]

4-1 in round 1 of the playoffs in back to back seasons... no one doubts the good regular season results but fair to question if better usage of those guys would have helped the Jets.

Team is a sum of it's players... not a tough leap to make that guys who outscored the other teams while on ice could have had a better impact playing more compared to guys who were outscored. If anything it is those who are arguing for certain players to get the top minutes regardless of on ice results are the one putting specific players or coaches ahead of the Jets.

This!!!!
I want the Jets to win and any player that improves the team or has a strong positive impact should play more. How is this a hot topic????
Better usage of players makes a better team!!!!!

 

[kanadalainen]

Time travelling would open possibilities

I'll start working on that right away. No promises.

Hypothesis. Solving time-travel will help us rebuild an incredible Winnipeg Dynasty.
Methods: Ponder and guess.
Aim 1. To be determined.

Grant budget: $65 CAD

Materials and Supplies: 2 cases of locally brewed IPA.
Assiniboine Park bench (nonspecific locale). Free.
Conveyance to said park (Ageing Jeep Wrangler). Will require a couple of liters of fuel @ $1.45/litre. Straight 6 in line of questionable efficiency.

 

[Buffdog]

I look at stats like this, things that have happened on the ice that someone recorded on paper. Only a fool thinks his or her eyes notice everything that happens on the ice in real time.
You keep track of real events that happened during multiple games and sometimes it confirms something you saw or tells you that you've missed something due to biases.
Your eyes may remember a high danger event with a player and ignore team or player success due to that 1 event.
Analytics certainly isn't perfect but it does give more information than just relying on your eyes. Especially after a few beer.

Analytics are absolutely a valuable objective way of helping to understand rhe game, but they can't be solely relied upon - same as the eye test

In a perfect world, they're used together to create a high level of understanding of what happened

That said, some stats themselves are somewhat subjective, and should be treated as such

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I'm not sure where the certainty that Ehlers is gone comes from. Murat? It's not like Ehlers is the only player who hasn't worked out a new contract. There is plenty of time.

Why are we so sure he's crying about ice time? Isn't this the same guy who passed on PP1 because he felt he could contribute more on PP2?

Can his body handle the 19 minutes+ a game it requires to play on the 1st line. He sure gets hurt a lot. Even this year at 82 games he was rumored to have a nagging injury. And last year a sports hernia, which the same injury pretty much ended Ladd's career.

Hear me out....maybe .....just maybe they all agree 16 minutes a game for 82 (or as close to) games against lesser competition is far better than 60 games at 19+ minutes.

There is a possibility that Ehlers isn't asking anyone to be offended for him.

The certainty comes from watching the way Ehlers has been treated by Jets coaches.

It is not just being relegated to fewer and lesser minutes. It is outperforming the alternative and then being relegated again and again. It is being called out when no one else is. It is having his earning power truncated.

It is possible that he is satisfied, but I doubt it, IMHO.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I'll turn your point into a reply of "being small isn't the be all end all". Or did I miss the point as bad as your reply?

All things being equal give me a big strong smooth skater over a tiny weak smooth skater. Being small is something to overcome.

I don't want an entire team of Dillons. But I want a better balance.

I wouldn't put it that way. But I agree that small size is something to be overcome. Less obviously though, so is very large size. It is a lot harder for very big men to have the agility that you would want. Not even talking top end skating speed, but quickness, foot speed.

Comparing Jets small D to Col small D kind of highlights some of the issues. Our small D don't have the puck retrieving and moving skills that Col's do, except for Morrissey. And to a lesser extent, DeMelo. Samberg is a pretty good blend of size and skill.

So, Morrissey, Dillon, Samberg, DeMelo all manage to be successful Dmen, one way or another and to varying degrees. That leaves Pionk and Schmidt as the weak links.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Reading a lot of interesting analysis here of what went wrong in the PO. Not a lot of discussion of the difference between our regular season performance against Avs and our PO performance against them.

There are a lot of possible explanations and the truth may be a combination of several. It could be that they got quicker at the TD and we got slower. I don't think that's it, for one thing, because we handled them pretty well late in the season. It could be that we failed to clear the net front. I don't think that's it either. If the opposition has a man in front screening the goalie you don't fix that by having 2 or more skaters in a shoving match in front of the goalie.

I think we got away from playing a 5 man D game. There are armchair coaches on here who are much better than I am at observing and analyzing the specific details but I think that all of the analysis boils down to that.

 

[Gm0ney]

Reading a lot of interesting analysis here of what went wrong in the PO. Not a lot of discussion of the difference between our regular season performance against Avs and our PO performance against them.

There are a lot of possible explanations and the truth may be a combination of several. It could be that they got quicker at the TD and we got slower. I don't think that's it, for one thing, because we handled them pretty well late in the season. It could be that we failed to clear the net front. I don't think that's it either. If the opposition has a man in front screening the goalie you don't fix that by having 2 or more skaters in a shoving match in front of the goalie.

I think we got away from playing a 5 man D game. There are armchair coaches on here who are much better than I am at observing and analyzing the specific details but I think that all of the analysis boils down to that.

It seemed like the defensive gameplan changed. The Jets were backing way off trying not to get burned but then that just granted the Avs free access to the zone...where the team apparently decided to collapse more deeply than they traditionally had during the regular season.

Colorado's hard forecheck was causing lots of problems too. Led to lots of failed exits and goals against. Again, the Jets never seemed to figure out a counter.

Also, when things start to go bad, the Jets just seem to completely lose all composure and panic. Like they're so worried about making a mistake they make 10x as many mistakes.

And Hellebuyck was getting a lot of criticism on here during the series, but after he claimed he was playing the best hockey of his career and Mike Kelly put out the screened shot stats, everyone seems to have forgotten how Hellebuyck was one of the most panicked Jets...flopping around like Pavs out there. Probably the worst 5 game stretch of goaltending he's played for the Jets. Every game he let in at least one - and often a couple - where you'd say "he shoulda had that".

The Avs used analytics and smart tactical game planning to dismantle the Jets. Attack weaknesses and play to Colorado's strengths. The Jets coaching staff just kind of threw up their hands and went with their guts.

 

[10Ducky10]

At least in pre-season, I'd want to see
Jomo-Samberg
Dillon-Heinola
Capo-DeMelo

If we are draft and develop then give our prospects a shot. I dont see any difference with Schmidt playing his off-side and Samberg/Heinola doing the same

You've been calling for Samberg on the right side for over a year now.
Did you see how he performed on the right side this year? How about getting a bona fide 1RHD or 2RHD?
Capo is not an NHLer.

 

[Buffdog]

The Avs used analytics and smart tactical game planning to dismantle the Jets. Attack weaknesses and play to Colorado's strengths. The Jets coaching staff just kind of threw up their hands and went with their guts.

I'm sure they did, but a semi-generational talent/sometimes best player in the world, a Norris winning/best dman on the planet and a goalie who posted 4 games of save percentages above .919 didn't hurt

Oh, no, wait... must have been the Statsnerds

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

It seemed like the defensive gameplan changed. The Jets were backing way off trying not to get burned but then that just granted the Avs free access to the zone...where the team apparently decided to collapse more deeply than they traditionally had during the regular season.

Colorado's hard forecheck was causing lots of problems too. Led to lots of failed exits and goals against. Again, the Jets never seemed to figure out a counter.

Also, when things start to go bad, the Jets just seem to completely lose all composure and panic. Like they're so worried about making a mistake they make 10x as many mistakes.

And Hellebuyck was getting a lot of criticism on here during the series, but after he claimed he was playing the best hockey of his career and Mike Kelly put out the screened shot stats, everyone seems to have forgotten how Hellebuyck was one of the most panicked Jets...flopping around like Pavs out there. Probably the worst 5 game stretch of goaltending he's played for the Jets. Every game he let in at least one - and often a couple - where you'd say "he shoulda had that".

The Avs used analytics and smart tactical game planning to dismantle the Jets. Attack weaknesses and play to Colorado's strengths. The Jets coaching staff just kind of threw up their hands and went with their guts.

Agreed. Jets needed to stick to the game plan that had worked in the regular season. PO hockey just means you have to work even harder at that same game plan.

Yes, Avs forecheck was causing problems. Another case of Jets F needing to do more to help out the D.

If Hellebuyck really couldn't see the puck of course he is going to panic and flop around.

Playing to not make mistakes is mistake number 1. Coaching to not make mistakes is the same mistake.

 

[Howard Chuck]

I think the key here is we the fans don’t know. The organization may very well feel they have a good handle on where he is in his development.

I agree with you, but there wouldn’t be many posts here if we didn’t express our opinions as fans.