Winnipeg Jets going into the 24/25 season

[Aries56]

With recent talk about Ehlers and Pulock, someone on the trade board (not a Jets fan) posted close to the exact idea I was thinking about. I do like Ehlers and would be sad to see him go. But in a situation where there isn't a deal to be made with him, or if there isn't any other way to improve the D, I think it's worth considering.

Ehlers and Pionk for Pulock and Nelson

This would have to assume an extension for Ehlers to make it fair, but I think this is fair, at the very most only require something minor if not.

I would bet that some on the trade board would think the Jets might need to add, but reading the Isles board I think there are quite a few that realize that while Pulock is a RHD, his current contract isn't a "deal" for someone who doesn't produce much offense and isn't great in transition either.

Adding Nelson and Pionk helps both sides as well. For us, if we add Pulock at the expense of Ehlers we're down a top 6 F. And we also have a potential hole at 2C (depending on the new coach's view of trying Perfetti there). If the Jets are able to re-sign Demelo, it's a much better situation to add Demelo as a UFA and then use Pionk to add to the top 6.

For the Islanders most are already interested in swapping Ehlers for Pulock. They're looking for a top 6 winger and Ehlers's speed would be a good fit. What's interesting is that when discussing moving Pulock, they also realize the situation that would arise by moving him. Adding Pionk helps them fill in with Mayfield behind Dobson.

Nelson and Pionk are both upcoming UFA's, and even with our frustration with Pionk their values should not be very far apart.

Seems like a hockey trade that would benefit both teams. The salary impact to both teams is also pretty darn close as well (Jets take on an additional 275K).

I would take that trade in a heartbeat. I wonder how quickly Ehlers would be in Roy's dog house for freewheeling and not playing to the system.

 

[surixon]

I would take that trade in a heartbeat. I wonder how quickly Ehlers would be in Roy's dog house for freewheeling and not playing to the system.

Same. I think the deal is pretty slanted towards us. I think Ehlers for Poluck 1 for 1 is something that would help both teams.

Poluck goes onto our top pairing and we reup DeMelo to play with Heinola.

 

[Orrrules]

DeMelo and Heinola would get caved in the playoffs.

 

[Gil Fisher]

Some us are fan of the team some of us are just fans of some players.

I was only kidding

 

[JetsFan815]

The TEAM finished +60. 4th in the league.

This board-- But but but Ehlers.....but but but Perfetti......but but but Heinola but but but old school .It's about TEAM.

4-1 in round 1 of the playoffs in back to back seasons... no one doubts the good regular season results but fair to question if better usage of those guys would have helped the Jets.

Team is a sum of it's players... not a tough leap to make that guys who outscored the other teams while on ice could have had a better impact playing more compared to guys who were outscored. If anything it is those who are arguing for certain players to get the top minutes regardless of on ice results are the one putting specific players or coaches ahead of the Jets.

 

[JetsFan815]

I feel like there is a medium ground here.

I'm not against moving Ehlers if it means a top pair RD coming back. I did not expect that would be an option. If it was, different story.

If he doesn't want to re-sign, then that ends a debate of whether to keep him or not.

If he is willing to stay at a reasonable price? And we can't get a top pair D for him? What are we doing, trading the guy instead for picks?? More okay middle six guys?

He just scored 60 points from the 2nd line. That's still a really valuable player.

Exactly! While I doubt Ehlers would re-sign with the Jets but if he is willing to consider re-signing the Jets need to put their best foot forward to sign him. He didn't have a great playoff but pretty much no one did, and the solution to the Jets woes is not getting rid of good players (regular season or otherwise).

The only thing I disagree with is if he tells Chevy that there is no way he re-signs he has to be traded... no we won't get a top pair D-man for him (RD or LD) but they have got to get even the standard 1st + B prospect type of package to avoid losing him for nothing.

 

[Eyeseeing]

If we're going on 5 game sample sizes then we should be making a bunch of changes including getting rid of Helle and Ehlers

But we aren’t.
Honestly where do you think we would be without regular season Helle the last 5-6 seasons.
Aside from Jomo, DeMelo and Dilly, are you stoked about our D core being run back?
Are we constructed as a playoff team?
Nope….the last several years show us that we are not.

 

[johnnyonthspot]

I’m trying to think of players here that I’d be upset if they were gone, and I’ve got one, Morrissey. Maybe Lowry. Everyone else should he fair game. I used to feel like that about Ehlers, but his constant disappearing act in the playoffs is getting old.

I would keep Morrisey, Brosoit, Nino, Lowry Dillon and Gabe. Anyone else is fair game

 

[JetsFan815]

Everyone wants to ignore the fact we were a top team in the league, with the best defense. Many had us going on a deep run. It didn't happen and we need some improvement but people are talking like we were a wild card barely squeaking in

The regular season play has a lot of value including making the playoffs in the first place, selling tickets and fan experience. I put a lot of value into regular season impact. But the concerning thing is that the Jets team that showed up post ASB was closer to a Wild Card team compared to the pre-ASB team. Elite goaltending post ASB covered a lot of warts.

	Corsi Rank	xGF% Rank	xGA/60 (good proxy for team defense)
Pre-All Star Break	6th	6th	7th
Post-All Star Break	13th	15th	17th

(ignoring Special Teams as they were pretty much equally bad pre and post ASB)

Any analysis of the season needs to start off by dealing with that fact. If we just say "the Jets were a top team with the best defense" and move on that is not a correct reflection of the Jets season. If the post-ASB Jets are a reflection of what is to come then we are in for a tough season.

 

[BarnabyJones PI]

Exactly! While I doubt Ehlers would re-sign with the Jets but if he is willing to consider re-signing the Jets need to put their best foot forward to sign him. He didn't have a great playoff but pretty much no one did, and the solution to the Jets woes is not getting rid of good players (regular season or otherwise).

The only thing I disagree with is if he tells Chevy that there is no way he re-signs he has to be traded... no we won't get a top pair D-man for him (RD or LD) but they have got to get even the standard 1st + B prospect type of package to avoid losing him for nothing.

You're always warning us, after a lot of wins/winning streaks, about how the Jets need to identify their underlying problems that you can't hide once the playoffs start. Fine.

Then you proceed to ignore one of those problems, who already had a fantastic (and impossible to ignore) track record of pooping the bed in the playoffs, and come up with "We need to re-sign him, hopefully, he'll still want us."

When you say "otherwise", you make it sound like it's less than the regular season.

 

[LowLefty]

4-1 in round 1 of the playoffs in back to back seasons... no one doubts the good regular season results but fair to question if better usage of those guys would have helped the Jets.

Team is a sum of it's players... not a tough leap to make that guys who outscored the other teams while on ice could have had a better impact playing more compared to guys who were outscored. If anything it is those who are arguing for certain players to get the top minutes regardless of on ice results are the one putting specific players or coaches ahead of the Jets.

Usage didn't kill us in the PO's - we were outclassed at every level and the only real hope we had in keeping up with the Aves was to play our best dgame - which we didn't.
I'm fine with getting into the weeds with guys like Perfetti and what he might have added if he was playing his absolute best game(s) ever - but it wouldn't have mattered much. So sure, it's fair to ask if they would have mattered - but they wouldn't have enough to turn that series around.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Usage didn't kill us in the PO's - we were outclassed at every level and the only real hope we had in keeping up with the Aves was to play our best dgame - which we didn't.
I'm fine with getting into the weeds with guys like Perfetti and what he might have added if he was playing his absolute best game(s) ever - but it wouldn't have mattered much. So sure, it's fair to ask if they would have mattered - but they wouldn't have enough to turn that series around.

The whole Toffoli vs perfetti is a philosophy thing. Toffoli is the better goal scorer perfetti is the better 2 way player. We need a team with fewer specialists and more 2 way guys.

 

[Buffdog]

But we aren’t.
Honestly where do you think we would be without regular season Helle the last 5-6 seasons.
Aside from Jomo, DeMelo and Dilly, are you stoked about our D core being run back?
Are we constructed as a playoff team?
Nope….the last several years show us that we are not.

Check the Avs regular seasons and playoff results before they won the cup

It's not like they convert to playing bandy at the end of the season. A team that can put up 110 points in the regular season can win in the playoffs. It's not about who's on the team, but rather how they play

Just because they haven't won in the playoffs *yet* doesn't mean they *can't*

But yes, we need to add to our D

 

[tbcwpg]

I would keep Morrisey, Brosoit, Nino, Lowry Dillon and Gabe. Anyone else is fair game

That wouldn't be a fun team to watch. Feels like a team that would be out if it by February.

 

[HellebuyckOurSaviour]

I really wish we could somehow sign Joshua from the Canucks

 

[Maukkis]

You're always warning us, after a lot of wins/winning streaks, about how the Jets need to identify their underlying problems that you can't hide once the playoffs start. Fine.

Then you proceed to ignore one of those problems, who already had a fantastic (and impossible to ignore) track record of pooping the bed in the playoffs, and come up with "We need to re-sign him, hopefully, he'll still want us."

When you say "otherwise", you make it sound like it's less than the regular season.

That's probably because the playoffs don't tell us anything in comparison to the regular season.

When our best player plays a fantastic regular season, spurring his teammates to better results over an 82-game stretch, you wouldn't ignore that in favour of a very rough five-game stretch, especially when the player in question got absolutely no help from anyone in his usage. It would be foolish to make snap decisions on the basis of that, wouldn't it?

Evaluating players based on the playoffs, such as Hellebuyck described above, is ill-advised.

 

[Daximus]

That's probably because the playoffs don't tell us anything in comparison to the regular season.

When our best player plays a fantastic regular season, spurring his teammates to better results over an 82-game stretch, you wouldn't ignore that in favour of a very rough five-game stretch, especially when the player in question got absolutely no help from anyone in his usage. It would be foolish to make snap decisions on the basis of that, wouldn't it?

Evaluating players based on the playoffs, such as Hellebuyck described above, is ill-advised.

Helle at least has 1 solid run he can point to in the playoffs. It ended uo falling apart in the end but it started good. Same can't be said for others. Scheif while obviously declining had a very good run as well at one point.

Some players games just aren't cut out for NHL playoffs and might not ever be.

 

[Huffer]

Doesn't Nelson have an extra year on his deal then Pionk?

Looks like both have 1 year left

Why wouldn't we just pay Dillon 6m a season... see if samberg or heinola can play their off side

That's an option as well. I've mentioned that Pulock really scores at a Dillon type pace so it's why I don't think his contact is much "value". Re-signing Dillon and Demelo and having a lefty play on the right is an option for sure.

This a well thought out proposal but Pulock has a Full NTC and Nelson has a 16 team NTC. Not every Manitoba boy wants to come. The evidence would actually suggest most would prefer not to.

100%. NTC's would be a factor.

 

[Conflicted Habs fan]

Time travelling would open possibilities

 

[Howard Chuck]

Why wouldn't we just pay Dillon 6m a season... see if samberg or heinola can play their off side

This is one of the things that bother me about our asset management. We could have given Heinola some games to see what we have and then we would know, but instead we are left guessing again in the offseason. Same goes for a few players on the moose.

Heinola has to be at least as good as Pionk and a fraction of the cost and upside potential. But we don’t know now.

 

[Buffdog]

That's probably because the playoffs don't tell us anything in comparison to the regular season.

When our best player plays a fantastic regular season, spurring his teammates to better results over an 82-game stretch, you wouldn't ignore that in favour of a very rough five-game stretch, especially when the player in question got absolutely no help from anyone in his usage. It would be foolish to make snap decisions on the basis of that, wouldn't it?

Evaluating players based on the playoffs, such as Hellebuyck described above, is ill-advised.

It's not a 5 game stretch, it's 37

If it was one bad playoffs, I'd agree. But 37 games is enough of a sample size to conclude that something is amiss

At this point, if you're not willing to admit that, then maybe just give up making stats-based arguments altogether. You can't do that if you're only gonna cherry puck the ones you like

 

[WolfHouse]

This is one of the things that bother me about our asset management. We could have given Heinola some games to see what we have and then we would know, but instead we are left guessing again in the offseason. Same goes for a few players on the moose.

Heinola has to be at least as good as Pionk and a fraction of the cost and upside potential. But we don’t know now.

I don't think they will do it but the easiest move to send a message is buying out one or both of Schmidt and Pionk... the team can't handle Pionk chaos every second game (or every game in the playoffs)

I honestly thought Miller would be our best chance at a solid RD extension when we traded for him but usage has fkd that up - beyond that I don't see anyone available... maybe Lyubhushkin or someone but he's kind of replacing one problem with another in your top 4.

Best chance for a D overhaul is signed both Dillon and DeMelo, buying out the other two

At least in pre-season, I'd want to see
Jomo-Samberg
Dillon-Heinola
Capo-DeMelo

If we are draft and develop then give our prospects a shot. I dont see any difference with Schmidt playing his off-side and Samberg/Heinola doing the same

 

[BarnabyJones PI]

That's probably because the playoffs don't tell us anything in comparison to the regular season.

When our best player plays a fantastic regular season, spurring his teammates to better results over an 82-game stretch, you wouldn't ignore that in favour of a very rough five-game stretch, especially when the player in question got absolutely no help from anyone in his usage. It would be foolish to make snap decisions on the basis of that, wouldn't it?

Evaluating players based on the playoffs, such as Hellebuyck described above, is ill-advised.

I was talking about Ehlers.

It's not one series, it's literally every series he's been a part of.

It's not a 5 game stretch, it's 37

If it was one bad playoffs, I'd agree. But 37 games is enough of a sample size to conclude that something is amiss

At this point, if you're not willing to admit that, then maybe just give up making stats-based arguments altogether. You can't do that if you're only gonna cherry puck the ones you like

He's basically saying that the 82 house shows are more important than Wrestlemania. Nik Ehlers can mail it in for the Pay Per Views.

Essentially, he's Bruiser Brody looking good, and skipping town when it's his turn to do business.

I truly question one of the analytical guys that so many of these guys subscribe to, and whether or not he's working with Ehlers' agent, putting something together when that next contract comes up.

 

[WolfHouse]

I was talking about Ehlers.

It's not one series, it's literally every series he's been a part of.




He's basically saying that the 82 house shows are more important than Wrestlemania. Nik Ehlers can mail it in for the Pay Per Views.

Essentially, he's Bruiser Brody looking good, and skipping town when it's his turn to do business.

I truly question one of the analytical guys that so many of these guys subscribe to, and whether or not he's working with Ehlers' agent, putting something together when that next contract comes up.

Jets looked pretty good when it was CSE as our top line in that last game... wheels came off when Bones took Ehlers off the top line - one way to solve this debate is to actually play Ehlers on the top line for more than 20 games...

 

[Buffdog]

I was talking about Ehlers.

It's not one series, it's literally every series he's been a part of.




He's basically saying that the 82 house shows are more important than Wrestlemania. Nik Ehlers can mail it in for the Pay Per Views.

Essentially, he's Bruiser Brody looking good, and skipping town when it's his turn to do business.

I truly question one of the analytical guys that so many of these guys subscribe to, and whether or not he's working with Ehlers' agent, putting something together when that next contract comes up.

I'd like to see the overlap between people who say "you can't judge Ehlers on his playoff performance" and people who said "the season is a failure if we don't get out of the first round"

So on one hand, playoff results mean nothing and on the other they mean everything

Can't have it both ways

It's that inconsistency that makes it hard to take those posters seriously. They claim to be objective and data driven, but only when it suits their needs and confirms their biases