Player Discussion: Winnipeg Jets Defense

[Atoyot]

I posted this in the GDT but it probably belongs here.

Question about the amount of shots we are allowing:

In our most successful season when we went to the semi finals, wasn’t our plan to allow a lot of shots but they were all perimeter shots? And isn’t that what we are doing again?

This is my recollection anyway.

I remember we looked God awful the first few months of the year with terrible underlying numbers but were winning similar to how we are now, to which I said "fake it til you make it" after pretty much every game. And then they eventually did. By mid season and through the playoffs the underlying numbers came around and better reflected our record, rather than our record coming around to better reflect the underlying numbers. At that point we weren't getting regularly outshot and outchanced anymore. I don't know how repeatable that is.

 

[voyageur]

Whatever it takes, however it needs to happen, our D core needs to be set enough and good enough so that, for game 1 of the playoffs, Boo Boo is not in the starting lineup. About as practical and reasonable a yard stick as any I could ask for.

There was only one + defenseman last year in the playins, any guesses who? Albeit he was on the ice for some bad PK goals.

It's frustrating that every year we have a defenseman we want to torch: last year it was Bitetto, I guess Sbisa too, year before I remember the narrative we could not win with guys like Benny, who was under constant scrutiny for icing the puck, and getting caught going for the big hit on the boards. Before him Myers was the whipping boy. Morrow, Stuart, you name it.

It's as though HF Jets boards has a group of qualified defensemen who are ready to take over at any time.

2 years ago Niku was the savior, he wasn't very good but he was good, the hell with the underlying stats.

Now it's Samberg, who has 0 points, and is -2 on the Moose.

Yeah Beaulieu makes some dumb dumb plays. He will never get credit for the smart plays he makes, I counted about 6 occasions where the Habs rush died from his stick or body contact, or that he saved a breakaway from Armia shooting the gut, by reading it quickly. If he makes a bad first pass, the swords are out, if he makes a good first pass, you won't here about here. I am thinking of the zone clear he made against Montreal, with the lob, as he uses it more than anyone else, that falls into Scheifele beyond the blue line, but the Scheif overhandles it, and Boo Boo and Mo get caught out for a long 2nd period shift that bled shots.

What does concern me about Beaulieu is that he stops skating when tired, and that's a bad place to be on the ice. That gets you exposed on the cycle, and caught in no man's land.

I do think that the Jets will look for guys who are able to be more effective at shot suppression to replace Beaulieu. To bolster the depth of the defense. I'm still not sure that Beaulieu doesn't end up as #6 for the playoffs, down with De Melo, who is his friend off the ice, which helps a bit chemistry wise, by the time playoffs come. That would allow him to be a bit more aggressive offensively, as he plays pretty deep now defensively in the offensive zone, to avoid the 2-1 counterattack, or breakaways.

I wouldn't mind seeing Morrissey with Heinola again, that would be more of true top 4. Samberg is looking like a guy who might need more time to progress, but when he does, there will be no looking back.

 

[Fastfrde]

I think the Montreal game was a mixture of a few factors:
1) Montreal desperately wanted to win the game and played like it.
2) Winnipeg feared Montreal’s transition game far more than their offensive zone game.
3) Montreal is a good trapping team and Winnipeg is not great against the trap.

The Jets were not willing to give up the easy transition to get offence and break the trap or really commit to offence in Montreal’s zone and risk giving up the odd man rushes. They essentially dared Montreal to beat them 5 on 5 in their zone. Not saying it’s a strategy I would want to use on a regular basis but it worked that game.

 

[GumbyCan2]

There was only one + defenseman last year in the playins, any guesses who? Albeit he was on the ice for some bad PK goals.

It's frustrating that every year we have a defenseman we want to torch: last year it was Bitetto, I guess Sbisa too, year before I remember the narrative we could not win with guys like Benny, who was under constant scrutiny for icing the puck, and getting caught going for the big hit on the boards. Before him Myers was the whipping boy. Morrow, Stuart, you name it.

It's as though HF Jets boards has a group of qualified defensemen who are ready to take over at any time.

2 years ago Niku was the savior, he wasn't very good but he was good, the hell with the underlying stats.

Now it's Samberg, who has 0 points, and is -2 on the Moose.

Yeah Beaulieu makes some dumb dumb plays. He will never get credit for the smart plays he makes, I counted about 6 occasions where the Habs rush died from his stick or body contact, or that he saved a breakaway from Armia shooting the gut, by reading it quickly. If he makes a bad first pass, the swords are out, if he makes a good first pass, you won't here about here. I am thinking of the zone clear he made against Montreal, with the lob, as he uses it more than anyone else, that falls into Scheifele beyond the blue line, but the Scheif overhandles it, and Boo Boo and Mo get caught out for a long 2nd period shift that bled shots.

What does concern me about Beaulieu is that he stops skating when tired, and that's a bad place to be on the ice. That gets you exposed on the cycle, and caught in no man's land.

I do think that the Jets will look for guys who are able to be more effective at shot suppression to replace Beaulieu. To bolster the depth of the defense. I'm still not sure that Beaulieu doesn't end up as #6 for the playoffs, down with De Melo, who is his friend off the ice, which helps a bit chemistry wise, by the time playoffs come. That would allow him to be a bit more aggressive offensively, as he plays pretty deep now defensively in the offensive zone, to avoid the 2-1 counterattack, or breakaways.

I wouldn't mind seeing Morrissey with Heinola again, that would be more of true top 4. Samberg is looking like a guy who might need more time to progress, but when he does, there will be no looking back.

I hear you on alot of these points.
One thing is, Beaulieu did make and does make a fair share of normal decent defender plays. The point of him making at least 6 plays die coming at them, with an active, is that was 6 good out of close to double, 12 plays which he "brain-farted" or coughed it up or simply missed playing the puck, creating another potential own zone danger scoring chance against.
That is what is tough seeing this guy play so many minutes and ahead of many prospects who need experience. Prospects will doof up and make blunders, but the hope is they learn from it and work on those areas along with coaching scrutiny. Boo-boo is seemingly given a "free reign" ( by PoMo's talk about him) to continually cough pucks up in our own end or blatantly miss teammates on his "passes" out of our zone, causing icibfs or turn-overs. Plus, he gives up the most high-danger scoring chances against of any of our defenders in the lineup this year.

 

[BobTheSolarsystem]

There was only one + defenseman last year in the playins, any guesses who? Albeit he was on the ice for some bad PK goals.

It's frustrating that every year we have a defenseman we want to torch: last year it was Bitetto, I guess Sbisa too, year before I remember the narrative we could not win with guys like Benny, who was under constant scrutiny for icing the puck, and getting caught going for the big hit on the boards. Before him Myers was the whipping boy. Morrow, Stuart, you name it.

It's as though HF Jets boards has a group of qualified defensemen who are ready to take over at any time.

2 years ago Niku was the savior, he wasn't very good but he was good, the hell with the underlying stats.

Now it's Samberg, who has 0 points, and is -2 on the Moose.

Yeah Beaulieu makes some dumb dumb plays. He will never get credit for the smart plays he makes, I counted about 6 occasions where the Habs rush died from his stick or body contact, or that he saved a breakaway from Armia shooting the gut, by reading it quickly. If he makes a bad first pass, the swords are out, if he makes a good first pass, you won't here about here. I am thinking of the zone clear he made against Montreal, with the lob, as he uses it more than anyone else, that falls into Scheifele beyond the blue line, but the Scheif overhandles it, and Boo Boo and Mo get caught out for a long 2nd period shift that bled shots.

What does concern me about Beaulieu is that he stops skating when tired, and that's a bad place to be on the ice. That gets you exposed on the cycle, and caught in no man's land.

I do think that the Jets will look for guys who are able to be more effective at shot suppression to replace Beaulieu. To bolster the depth of the defense. I'm still not sure that Beaulieu doesn't end up as #6 for the playoffs, down with De Melo, who is his friend off the ice, which helps a bit chemistry wise, by the time playoffs come. That would allow him to be a bit more aggressive offensively, as he plays pretty deep now defensively in the offensive zone, to avoid the 2-1 counterattack, or breakaways.

I wouldn't mind seeing Morrissey with Heinola again, that would be more of true top 4. Samberg is looking like a guy who might need more time to progress, but when he does, there will be no looking back.

The caveat I would add to your argument... is that none of the players you mention were used on our top pairing or as our top PK - with the exception of Myers who fans have since been proven right with his performance as #1 pairing in Vancouver

Beaulieu is fine on our third pairing - but as our #1 LHD that forces our most talented LHD to play his off-side... he deserves the bullseye... this is Mo falling in love with a player again for grit or sand when we actually need hockey IQ and speed

 

[JetsWillFly4Ever]

There was only one + defenseman last year in the playins, any guesses who? Albeit he was on the ice for some bad PK goals.

It's frustrating that every year we have a defenseman we want to torch: last year it was Bitetto, I guess Sbisa too, year before I remember the narrative we could not win with guys like Benny, who was under constant scrutiny for icing the puck, and getting caught going for the big hit on the boards. Before him Myers was the whipping boy. Morrow, Stuart, you name it.

It's as though HF Jets boards has a group of qualified defensemen who are ready to take over at any time.

2 years ago Niku was the savior, he wasn't very good but he was good, the hell with the underlying stats.

Now it's Samberg, who has 0 points, and is -2 on the Moose.

Yeah Beaulieu makes some dumb dumb plays. He will never get credit for the smart plays he makes, I counted about 6 occasions where the Habs rush died from his stick or body contact, or that he saved a breakaway from Armia shooting the gut, by reading it quickly. If he makes a bad first pass, the swords are out, if he makes a good first pass, you won't here about here. I am thinking of the zone clear he made against Montreal, with the lob, as he uses it more than anyone else, that falls into Scheifele beyond the blue line, but the Scheif overhandles it, and Boo Boo and Mo get caught out for a long 2nd period shift that bled shots.

What does concern me about Beaulieu is that he stops skating when tired, and that's a bad place to be on the ice. That gets you exposed on the cycle, and caught in no man's land.

I do think that the Jets will look for guys who are able to be more effective at shot suppression to replace Beaulieu. To bolster the depth of the defense. I'm still not sure that Beaulieu doesn't end up as #6 for the playoffs, down with De Melo, who is his friend off the ice, which helps a bit chemistry wise, by the time playoffs come. That would allow him to be a bit more aggressive offensively, as he plays pretty deep now defensively in the offensive zone, to avoid the 2-1 counterattack, or breakaways.

I wouldn't mind seeing Morrissey with Heinola again, that would be more of true top 4. Samberg is looking like a guy who might need more time to progress, but when he does, there will be no looking back.

Bitetto, Sbisa, Stuart are/were brutal, Myers has proven to be a bottom pair guy way overpaid, Chiarot similar, though he did have a good season last year. Myers and Chiarot are much better than the first three though. Beaulieu is closer to the first 3. He should be a press box guy who comes in when there are injuries. He should never be on your top pairing.

 

[voyageur]

Bitetto, Sbisa, Stuart are/were brutal, Myers has proven to be a bottom pair guy way overpaid, Chiarot similar, though he did have a good season last year. Myers and Chiarot are much better than the first three though. Beaulieu is closer to the first 3. He should be a press box guy who comes in when there are injuries. He should never be on your top pairing.

I agree with the latter statement, he is miscast on a top pairing. And probably closer to a pressbox player. But when you spend $51 million on forwards, and invest in a Vezina goalie, there's go to be a soft spot in your roster somewhere.

We're counting on ELCs to fill those gaps in the coming years, while investing in some players that have warts. Forbort, Beaulieu, Niku. It is not easy to find a workable free agent at $1 million to fill a major hole in your lineup.

It's hard to have to true top 4, like say the Wild, when you have the firepower we do up front. And the Wild still needed a guy like Ian Cole, who is out of our salary range for a #5 to become legitimate contenders.

You look around the North, I guess Toronto is in the best shape with Dermott, Bogo, Lehtonen in their 5,6,7. But Bogo was here, and he was definitely not a keeper, more of a Boo Boo at a higher cost. Edmonton is pretty good with Larsson, Barrie, Bear, Bouchard on the right side, but look at what they are spending on Kris Russell, for negative results. And they have Slater Koekkok in their regular rotation with worse results than BooBoo. However they could be stronger when/if Klefbom comes back. Montreal has Kulak, who is probably in the same boat of players as Boo Boo, if you follow Habs fans thoughts. Chiarot is probably not a 1st pairing d-man on any other team but Montreal. Down the line Flames have a pretty good defensive group, but with the investment in goaltending as well, they have left themselves short at forward. Vancouver with Hamonic is not much better off than we are. In fact looking at the PK stats, I'd say we dodged bullet, and I would say I was wrong in respect to this player. Add to him the overpaid Jordie Benn types in the 5-6 slot, maybe top 4 in a pinch, and you get a similar picture.
So every team has some degree of a hole in their lineup. I think it might be easier for us to replace the hole we have on defense this year, than the holes we had centre previous years, which also affected our prospect currency.

We're definitely not rushing our development players, and I think you will see change between now and the playoffs, I'm just not sure if it will be internal or external. Internally the push to replace Beaulieu will come from either Stanley or Samberg, at some point. It's definitely harder to make the change when you are winning, as a coach.

 

[Jet]

There was only one + defenseman last year in the playins, any guesses who? Albeit he was on the ice for some bad PK goals.

It's frustrating that every year we have a defenseman we want to torch: last year it was Bitetto, I guess Sbisa too, year before I remember the narrative we could not win with guys like Benny, who was under constant scrutiny for icing the puck, and getting caught going for the big hit on the boards. Before him Myers was the whipping boy. Morrow, Stuart, you name it.

It's as though HF Jets boards has a group of qualified defensemen who are ready to take over at any time.

2 years ago Niku was the savior, he wasn't very good but he was good, the hell with the underlying stats.

Now it's Samberg, who has 0 points, and is -2 on the Moose.

Yeah Beaulieu makes some dumb dumb plays. He will never get credit for the smart plays he makes, I counted about 6 occasions where the Habs rush died from his stick or body contact, or that he saved a breakaway from Armia shooting the gut, by reading it quickly. If he makes a bad first pass, the swords are out, if he makes a good first pass, you won't here about here. I am thinking of the zone clear he made against Montreal, with the lob, as he uses it more than anyone else, that falls into Scheifele beyond the blue line, but the Scheif overhandles it, and Boo Boo and Mo get caught out for a long 2nd period shift that bled shots.

What does concern me about Beaulieu is that he stops skating when tired, and that's a bad place to be on the ice. That gets you exposed on the cycle, and caught in no man's land.

I do think that the Jets will look for guys who are able to be more effective at shot suppression to replace Beaulieu. To bolster the depth of the defense. I'm still not sure that Beaulieu doesn't end up as #6 for the playoffs, down with De Melo, who is his friend off the ice, which helps a bit chemistry wise, by the time playoffs come. That would allow him to be a bit more aggressive offensively, as he plays pretty deep now defensively in the offensive zone, to avoid the 2-1 counterattack, or breakaways.

I wouldn't mind seeing Morrissey with Heinola again, that would be more of true top 4. Samberg is looking like a guy who might need more time to progress, but when he does, there will be no looking back.

Very good post. I think this is very close to reality.

 

[garret9]

Jets 2.0 21 worst performances in expected goals:

 

[voyageur]

Jets 2.0 21 worst performances in expected goals:

Interesting that Morrissey makes the list twice, since Trouba was traded, Niku twice, and potentially a 3rd, as I think his CF% is the worst it's been, and this is partially a shots based model? Also Poolman twice, and Heinola.

 

[garret9]

Interesting that Morrissey makes the list twice, since Trouba was traded, Niku twice, and potentially a 3rd, as I think his CF% is the worst it's been, and this is partially a shots based model? Also Poolman twice, and Heinola.

1) Morrissey
Morrissey also has a season in the Jets top 20 (2017-18 ranks 7th best). Definitely a shift post Trouba and pre Trouba. How much of it is usage change, how much of it is Morrissey being over leaned on, how much of it is Morrissey needs a partner like Buff or Trouba to work? Who knows.

2) Niku
Ya Niku's two years are rough. This season isn't great but much less bad (28th worst with Stanley being 27th worst). Niku's Corsi is legit bad but it looks worse than it is because he's mostly played in games where everyone in the team has been shelled and/or with partners who are not playing that great (Morrissey).

3) Heinola
I'm not afraid of too much. Only the elites come off the bat killing it consistently and his was a really small sample.

 

[GumbyCan2]

1) Morrissey
Morrissey also has a season in the Jets top 20 (2017-18 ranks 7th best). Definitely a shift post Trouba and pre Trouba. How much of it is usage change, how much of it is Morrissey being over leaned on, how much of it is Morrissey needs a partner like Buff or Trouba to work? Who knows.

2) Niku
Ya Niku's two years are rough. This season isn't great but much less bad (28th worst with Stanley being 27th worst). Niku's Corsi is legit bad but it looks worse than it is because he's mostly played in games where everyone in the team has been shelled and/or with partners who are not playing that great (Morrissey).

3) Heinola
I'm not afraid of too much. Only the elites come off the bat killing it consistently and his was a really small sample.

Tough to tell on Niku in that he has not had a true steady run with a defined pairing, or ice-time usesage consistently. Just 2 seasons ago on the Rangers, Neal Pionk had the league worst defensive numbers. There could be hope for improvememt in Niku? By the time we really find out in Mo's coaching style, players preference, useage, if Niku is worthy of a real role in this roster, Heinola should be more than ready and likely out-shines Niku in his showing, skill-set.

 

[Duke749]

Jets 2.0 21 worst performances in expected goals:

Sorry but where’s +/-? That’s a big indication of good defense right?

 

[DRW204]

Jets 2.0 21 worst performances in expected goals:

Yet Maurice continues to ice Beaulieu and niku regularly. Smh. Probably the internal analytics

 

[garret9]

Sorry but where’s +/-? That’s a big indication of good defense right?

The far left column is 5v5 +/- adjusted for ice time and usage

 

[garret9]

Just for some fun... here's the Rental Market*

*All I did was pull pending UFA dmen on teams that were statistically high probability of missing the playoffs by my numbers. Obviously some of these players may be unavailable and there may be RFA or more than 1 year on contract players avaailable.

 

[BobTheSolarsystem]

Just for some fun... here's the Rental Market*

*All I did was pull pending UFA dmen on teams that were statistically high probability of missing the playoffs by my numbers. Obviously some of these players may be unavailable and there may be RFA or more than 1 year on contract players avaailable.

That is an ugly list.

Hakanpaa might be a good add - RHD and 6'5... don't know much about him - numbers seem ok. But that's it for me.

 

[Atoyot]

Tough to tell on Niku in that he has not had a true steady run with a defined pairing, or ice-time usesae consistently. Just 2 seasons ago on the Rangers, Neal Pionk had the league worst defensive numbers. There could be hope for improvememt in Niku? By the time we really find out in Mo's coaching style, players preference, useage, if Niku is worthy of a real role in this roster, Heinola should be more than ready and likely out-shines Niku in his showing, skill-set.

I mentioned it when the pairing was announced, but I think DeMelo is pretty much as ideal a pairing that Niku could ask for. Forbort could work as well.

My frustration with Niku, and this could just be me wanting him to succeed and having a preset bias for him, but I feel like he came into the lineup and was told to stop focusing on the things that make him effective, and focus on the things that he's bad at. There's nothing wrong with him being told to improve his defensive game, it definitely needs work, but if you take away the things that make him good then all you have left are the things that make him bad. Let him activate more, his skating and smarts makes it so he rarely is the cause of odd man rushes and that's been consistent wherever he's played. His problems lie inside our own blueline, focus and work on that but let him do what he's good at outside of our own blue line.

Or maybe he's just that bad. Who knows.

 

[voyageur]

Sorry but where’s +/-? That’s a big indication of good defense right?

I don't know how much stock I would put into Xgoals either. When you get outshot by a more than 2:1 margin, your CF% goes right in the crapper, and so to your Xgoals. apparently.

I'd like to see some real stats though. Like those kill plays that Maurice talked about. Passing efficiency. One on one battles. Then you'd have a real picture. When we had Buff, we could make any d-man who played beside him look good, because he was that dominant. Now it's harder to measure the output, and one thing that never gets mentioned is the relation between centres and d-men. When we played Morrissey with Lowry, not surprisingly he had more shots, because his line moved the possession arrow. And Trouba was somewhat notorious for shooting, even if they were not quality shots. Morrissey is usually out with Scheifele now, last year too, and those numbers have dropped. Upon further analysis...

 

[Huffer]

Just for some fun... here's the Rental Market*

*All I did was pull pending UFA dmen on teams that were statistically high probability of missing the playoffs by my numbers. Obviously some of these players may be unavailable and there may be RFA or more than 1 year on contract players avaailable.

Curious where Ryan Murray and our old friend Kulikov would fit on this list

 

[Slimy Sculpin]

Interesting table. Can someone give me layperson definitions for the headings of the three columns on the right?
Asking for a friend.
Thanks in advance.

 

[DRW204]

Interesting table. Can someone give me layperson definitions for the headings of the three columns on the right?
Asking for a friend.
Thanks in advance.

efficiency stats per toi

shot-attempt differential rates
and xG (a measure of shot quality based on distance, type etc.) differential rates

 

[Whileee]

I mentioned it when the pairing was announced, but I think DeMelo is pretty much as ideal a pairing that Niku could ask for. Forbort could work as well.

My frustration with Niku, and this could just be me wanting him to succeed and having a preset bias for him, but I feel like he came into the lineup and was told to stop focusing on the things that make him effective, and focus on the things that he's bad at. There's nothing wrong with him being told to improve his defensive game, it definitely needs work, but if you take away the things that make him good then all you have left are the things that make him bad. Let him activate more, his skating and smarts makes it so he rarely is the cause of odd man rushes and that's been consistent wherever he's played. His problems lie inside our own blueline, focus and work on that but let him do what he's good at outside of our own blue line.

Or maybe he's just that bad. Who knows.

Maurice has publicly said he wants Niku to play to his strengths as a mobile puck mover, and Niku has been very active in that area, including activating in the offensive zone. I don't see any evidence that he's been shackled by the coaches. Niku struggles when the other team has the puck in the Jets zone. That's just a fact. The question is whether his strengths outweigh that. So far, I don't think the balance is in his favour overall, but he's had a couple of encouraging games.

 

[GumbyCan2]

Yet Maurice continues to ice Beaulieu and niku regularly. Smh. Probably the internal analytics

Niku? Played regularly?? He was in last 2 games before tonight, and missed his shift a few times when Maurice decided to change oairings, making him miss his next shift in sequence.

 

[DRW204]

Niku? Played regularly?? He was in last 2 games before tonight, and missed his shift a few times when Maurice decided to change oairings, making him miss his next shift in sequence.

that's enough for a dman that can't put up points and is the worst in the league in almost every measurable on-ice metric over his career