Player Discussion: Winnipeg Jets Defense

[MardyBum]

As bad as Morrissey and Booboo is, i wouldn’t dare run Booboo and Niku together. Right NOW Demelo is likely there to help with Niku.

We don't need to run them at all though?

That's why this f***ing team and coach are so frustrating.

 

[voyageur]

I'm not sure what your infatuation is with Beaulieu and his pk abilities and what it stems from. What on ice measures show he's proficient at pk and irreplaceable ? I really don't see anything all that special relative to the rest of the team.

Maybe because he's allowed 1 goal on the PK in about 10 games, and we have won most of those games. I showed in one post how his PK against Pettersson and Vancouver, changed the tide from us potentially losing to us taking the lead, within 2 shifts. These things get lost on a lot of people who look at cumulative results. But they make a difference in the game, make no mistake. I don't think he's irreplaceable, but I don't think that anyone is really a threat to replace him either, at this point of the season.

I'd rather run 3 forwards and one D on our pk than having beaulieu in the line up.

And that's why you haven't won over 700 games as an NHL coach.

 

[TheGovernment]

Maybe because he's allowed 1 goal on the PK in about 10 games, and we have won most of those games. I showed in one post how his PK against Pettersson and Vancouver, changed the tide from us potentially losing to us taking the lead, within 2 shifts. These things get lost on a lot of people who look at cumulative results. But they make a difference in the game, make no mistake. I don't think he's irreplaceable, but I don't think that anyone is really a threat to replace him either, at this point of the season.



And that's why you haven't won over 700 games as an NHL coach.

So you are saying, no other D man could have done what he did? Your reasoning is “he stopped Petterson and turned the game around?” That’s why he’s sticks around? Even though his numbers are shit?
Jesus man.....

 

[voyageur]

So you are saying, no other D man could have done what he did? Your reasoning is “he stopped Petterson and turned the game around?” That’s why he’s sticks around? Even though his numbers are shit?
Jesus man.....

I'm saying he knows his role. PK is part of that role. In close games, that could be the difference. Like last night? And we're tied for 12th on the PK, trending towards top 10. Beaulieu is what 3rd in PK minutes among Jets d-men? 3rd in GA/60 shorthanded, right behind the top 2. And we're winning with this "shit" player in the lineup, whose "shit" numbers are similar to other "good" players. So I guess what I'm saying is I like winning.

I'm also saying that there is potential for someone to replace him, but we may not have this player on the roster. That will be a management decision.

 

[Whileee]

I'm saying he knows his role. PK is part of that role. In close games, that could be the difference. Like last night? And we're tied for 12th on the PK, trending towards top 10. Beaulieu is what 3rd in PK minutes among Jets d-men? 3rd in GA/60 shorthanded, right behind the top 2. And we're winning with this "shit" player in the lineup, whose "shit" numbers are similar to other "good" players. So I guess what I'm saying is I like winning.

I'm also saying that there is potential for someone to replace him, but we may not have this player on the roster. That will be a management decision.

Every D has examples of key defensive plays, and gaffes that directly lead to goals. But what is less obvious is when a D makes a bad play or two on a potential zone exit and the team gets hemmed in their zone for an extended period, leading to a penalty or a goal against. That's what drives me crazy about Beaulieu. It's all the poor decisions with the puck that create problems in the D zone, or when he makes a bad decision or pass in transition that kills a rush or leads to a neutral zone turnover. He also provides nothing in the offensive zone. He doesn't create dangerous shots, etc.

 

[Howard Chuck]

I posted this in the GDT but it probably belongs here.

Question about the amount of shots we are allowing:

In our most successful season when we went to the semi finals, wasn’t our plan to allow a lot of shots but they were all perimeter shots? And isn’t that what we are doing again?

This is my recollection anyway.

 

[Imcanadianeh]

Just curious but do the Jets even have any defenseman currently that qualify for the expansion draft other than the three that I’m assuming they’ll protect (Pionk, Morrissey and Demelo)

 

[MardyBum]

Just curious but do the Jets even have any defenseman currently that qualify for the expansion draft other than the three that I’m assuming they’ll protect (Pionk, Morrissey and Demelo)

Beaulieu has played enough to qualify now.

 

[LowLefty]

We don't need to run them at all though?

That's why this f***ing team and coach are so frustrating.

He doesn't need to but he will as long as he gets away with it - or - the 2 on the Moose are ready to come in and take their spots.

Yes, I know - many Heinola and Samberg are ready now -
Maybe they are but any play time they can get on the Moose before making the step, will only help them - Samberg is the likely first up and he needs ice time before making the jump.

I can see them both playing with the Jets at some point this season - if not both, Samberg.
Heinola still looks 12 to me - I think he needs a little more time to grow physically and learn to play on the small ice with bigger players.
Right now, they can take advantage of the development in the A while the Jets continue to win games.

 

[MardyBum]

He doesn't need to but he will as long as he gets away with it - or - the 2 on the Moose are ready to come in and take their spots.

Yes, I know - many Heinola and Samberg are ready now -
Maybe they are but any play time they can get on the Moose before making the step, will only help them - Samberg is the likely first up and he needs ice time before making the jump.

I can see them both playing with the Jets at some point this season - if not both, Samberg.
Heinola still looks 12 to me - I think he needs a little more time to grow physically and learn to play on the small ice with bigger players.
Right now, they can take advantage of the development in the A while the Jets continue to win games.

Pionk looks 14. Who cares about how they look, how do they play?

It's not just Samberg and Heinola, Stanley should be rotated in too. He was playing well in a sheltered role and is another "I don't want to see young players sitting for a long time" player that keeps sitting.

The Moose are a Jets-esque shit tier tire-fire on their own and we haven't developed shit for defense off the Moose.

Bust after bust after bust with a mediocre replacement level player thrown in.

Edit : sorry. Morrissey. The top pairing that he is.

 

[garret9]

Maybe because he's allowed 1 goal on the PK in about 10 games, and we have won most of those games. I showed in one post how his PK against Pettersson and Vancouver, changed the tide from us potentially losing to us taking the lead, within 2 shifts. These things get lost on a lot of people who look at cumulative results. But they make a difference in the game, make no mistake. I don't think he's irreplaceable, but I don't think that anyone is really a threat to replace him either, at this point of the season.



And that's why you haven't won over 700 games as an NHL coach.

I just want to point out one thing...

This is an RAPM chart:

The point of it is to show how a player performs in multiple different stats, while adjusting for some quality of teammate, competition, and a few other factors.

The left side is 5v5. You'll notice there are 5 bars:
Goals For
Expected Goals For
Corsi For
Expected Goals Against
Corsi Against

Notice it's not five. There's no goals against?!?!

Now why is that???

Well, it's because all evidence shows that unlike goals for, there's very, very little that players control in goals against that isn't already covered by xG or Corsi that can be detected by using goals agaisnt.

Examples:
1) Laine is an elite finisher. We expect him to outperform xGF with his GF.
2) You can repeat the same thing for Laine with some elite passers.
3) Some random rookie has a high GF but only okay xGF. It could be talent or it could be luck or it could be a mix.

However, it doesn't seem to work that way with GA... while players can consistently post a high team sh% (ex: McDavid's is about 2x Brashere) so there's talent in sh% even after accounting for xGF... we don't see the same thing with sv%.

Sv% seems to be fairly random, in that players who do good one year are equally likely to do bad the next year as someone who did bad the year before. The same isn't true for Sh%.

So if 5v5 Sv% over a whole season isn't very confident enough to use goals against to talk about how good or bad defensively a player is, I wouldn't use PK goals against in an even smaller sample.

 

[AlphaLackey]

I'd just like to say that if nothing else, the Jets have a really diverse D-corps; di more ya vatch them, di verse it gets.

 

[nobody imp0rtant]

I'd just like to say that if nothing else, the Jets have a really diverse defence; di more ya vatch them, di verse it gets.

Hey, that's cultural appropriation. Don't know which culture, but it's certainly appropriate.

 

[BobTheSolarsystem]

I'd just like to say that if nothing else, the Jets have a really diverse defence; di more ya vatch them, di verse it gets.

I think I might watch Blazing Saddles tonight.

 

[AlphaLackey]

I think I might watch Blazing Saddles tonight.

If you have 5 minutes to spare, you should watch the "2021 Approved" version

 

[AlphaLackey]

Hey, that's cultural appropriation. Don't know which culture, but it's certainly appropriate.

Oh man it's total vaudeville night on HF Jets. I can all but hear Groucho Marx's accent with each quip

 

[BobTheSolarsystem]

If you have 5 minutes to spare, you should watch the "2021 Approved" version

Where?!! Where?!!

 

[LowLefty]

Pionk looks 14. Who cares about how they look, how do they play?

It's not just Samberg and Heinola, Stanley should be rotated in too. He was playing well in a sheltered role and is another "I don't want to see young players sitting for a long time" player that keeps sitting.

The Moose are a Jets-esque shit tier tire-fire on their own and we haven't developed shit for defense off the Moose.

Bust after bust after bust with a mediocre replacement level player thrown in.

Edit : sorry. Morrissey. The top pairing that he is.

It matters how they look - he looks like he needs to build up a bit (if I wasn't clear enough).
I agree Stanley should be in - hopefully he gets another crack at it soon.

I don't see BooBoo staying in the lineup - he'll be replaced at some point.
I disagree on your opinion on the Moose - Stanley has developed well during his time there and I wish he was playing.
As for D development in the A, we haven't done a lot of that in the past but we have a few that are coming up through the system now.
This has been a tough year to have players step into the line up with no camp or Preseason - they should get some time with the Moose first.
Makes sense to me -

 

[BobTheSolarsystem]

It matters how they look - he looks like he needs to build up a bit (if I wasn't clear enough).
I agree Stanley should be in - hopefully he gets another crack at it soon.

I don't see BooBoo staying in the lineup - he'll be replaced at some point.
I disagree on your opinion on the Moose - Stanley has developed well during his time there and I wish he was playing.
As for D development in the A, we haven't done a lot of that in the past but we have a few that are coming up through the system now.
This has been a tough year to have players step into the line up with no camp or Preseason - they should get some time with the Moose first.
Makes sense to me -

We did not give Beaulieu a raise and a two year contract to replace him... he's in the lineup for the rest of this season and next... Mo likes his game. He's our PK guy.

 

[AlphaLackey]

It matters how they look - he looks like he needs to build up a bit (if I wasn't clear enough).
I agree Stanley should be in - hopefully he gets another crack at it soon.

I don't see BooBoo staying in the lineup - he'll be replaced at some point.
I disagree on your opinion on the Moose - Stanley has developed well during his time there and I wish he was playing.
As for D development in the A, we haven't done a lot of that in the past but we have a few that are coming up through the system now.
This has been a tough year to have players step into the line up with no camp or Preseason - they should get some time with the Moose first.
Makes sense to me -

Whatever it takes, however it needs to happen, our D core needs to be set enough and good enough so that, for game 1 of the playoffs, Boo Boo is not in the starting lineup. About as practical and reasonable a yard stick as any I could ask for.

 

[Whileee]

We did not give Beaulieu a raise and a two year contract to replace him... he's in the lineup for the rest of this season and next... Mo likes his game. He's our PK guy.

They gave him a two year contract for one reason - so he is eligible for the expansion draft.

 

[hn777]

I posted this in the GDT but it probably belongs here.

Question about the amount of shots we are allowing:

In our most successful season when we went to the semi finals, wasn’t our plan to allow a lot of shots but they were all perimeter shots? And isn’t that what we are doing again?

This is my recollection anyway.

No, not really.

From Naturalstattrick.com, Winnipeg Jets:
2017-18: 8th in xGF%, 7th in HDCF%
2018-19: 24th in xGF%, 21st in HDCF%
2019-20: 31st in xGF%, 31st in HDCF%
2021: 31st in xGF%, 30th in HDCF%
So, we went from good underlying numbers in 2017-18 to bad in 2018-2019 to terrible since 2019.

After 2018, Toby left the team and Buff only played half the season. After 2019, Trouba, Chiarot and Myers left the team.

Is it because of different D personnel, or systemic issues? Have we been figured out?
I know, Bruce Boudreau said, he felt, the Jets had been figured out after 2018 (so, on the system), he also said, previously the Jets D zone was a war zone, and you could not easily enter (Buff, Chiarot, Trouba, Myers boxing out and clearing the crease) (so, on the D personnel).
So, probably a bit of both.

IMHO, you can only outproduce your underlying numbers to a certain degree by having elite talent.
In 2017-18, we had good underlying numbers and elite execution (scoring and goaltending) put us (almost) over the top by finishing 2nd in the Presidents Cup and appearance in the Conference Final.
Since 2018-19, we have had bad to terrible underlying numbers and elite execution (scoring and goaltending) has made us a bubble team.
IMO, we have to improve these underlying numbers from terrible to average to have a chance to go far in the play offs.

 

[Jet]

So, any ideas what broke Morrissey?

Injuries? He always looks hurt. Or was it that Buff and Trouba made him look a lot better than he is?

I don't know, honestly - maybe it's the responsibility of being the #1 guy. He doesn't hit anymore, isn't assertive, does not look comfortable with the puck, has problems with it at the offensive blueline.

I think it was last game where he was skating up the ice with the puck, no pressure, and just 'overskated' it.

I think a change of scenery might help. If we could do a swap for an equal age, salary, skill D who also needs a change that might be the best thing for him.

 

[Howard Chuck]

No, not really.

From Naturalstattrick.com, Winnipeg Jets:
2017-18: 8th in xGF%, 7th in HDCF%
2018-19: 24th in xGF%, 21st in HDCF%
2019-20: 31st in xGF%, 31st in HDCF%
2021: 31st in xGF%, 30th in HDCF%
So, we went from good underlying numbers in 2017-18 to bad in 2018-2019 to terrible since 2019.

After 2018, Toby left the team and Buff only played half the season. After 2019, Trouba, Chiarot and Myers left the team.

Is it because of different D personnel, or systemic issues? Have we been figured out?
I know, Bruce Boudreau said, he felt, the Jets had been figured out after 2018 (so, on the system), he also said, previously the Jets D zone was a war zone, and you could not easily enter (Buff, Chiarot, Trouba, Myers boxing out and clearing the crease) (so, on the D personnel).
So, probably a bit of both.

IMHO, you can only outproduce your underlying numbers to a certain degree by having elite talent.
In 2017-18, we had good underlying numbers and elite execution (scoring and goaltending) put us (almost) over the top by finishing 2nd in the Presidents Cup and appearance in the Conference Final.
Since 2018-19, we have had bad to terrible underlying numbers and elite execution (scoring and goaltending) has made us a bubble team.
IMO, we have to improve these underlying numbers from terrible to average to have a chance to go far in the play offs.

Thanks for your thoughts on this. I agree that our D was far better back then, but I could have sworn we were having the same conversation back then where we were allowing a lot of shots, but they were from the perimeter.

 

[Do or Die]

Have to admit, when I saw Niku in, and Bo on the top paring.....thought Maurice was crazy.
Turns out....half crazy