Speculation: Wings spare parts at the deadline (Actually, the tank thread)

[Pavels Dog]

Not trading Bert is a mistake. I'm sorry, but I don't want to miss getting something when I honestly believe we are missing the playoffs. We are close now with games in hand, but we got 4 of our 5 wins against two teams in complete disarray. I want playoffs too, but I don't think we will end up making it, and if we don't trade Bert and then lose him for nothing, is not what our team needs right now. 5 wins in a row is already super good, how many are we realistically going to get. Larkin isn't going to keep scoring 1-2 goals for a long stretch here.

So lets say we make the playoffs and lost 1st round, we draft later, we gain no assets from keeping UFAs and a few playoff games don't really make a world of difference experience wise for players.

Not trying to be a downer, but a realist!

Let's say we sell him for a 2nd round pick this year. Lockerroom morale is destroyed, the team goes into tailspin to finish the year. Larkin realizes the team doesn't want to win and leaves for nothing in UFA. Seider and Raymond question Yzerman's committment to winning and sign only short-term deals. Big UFAs see that Detroit's still firmly in a rebuild, not even attempting to make the playoffs, and sign elsewhere.

Not trying to be a downer, but a realist.

 

[norrisnick]

Let's say we sell him for a 2nd round pick this year. Lockerroom morale is destroyed, the team goes into tailspin to finish the year. Larkin realizes the team doesn't want to win and leaves for nothing in UFA. Seider and Raymond question Yzerman's committment to winning and sign only short-term deals. Big UFAs see that Detroit's still firmly in a rebuild, not even attempting to make the playoffs, and sign elsewhere.

Not trying to be a downer, but a realist.

The trick is you trade for Meier first.

 

[TheOctopusKid]

Let's say we sell him for a 2nd round pick this year. Lockerroom morale is destroyed, the team goes into tailspin to finish the year. Larkin realizes the team doesn't want to win and leaves for nothing in UFA. Seider and Raymond question Yzerman's committment to winning and sign only short-term deals. Big UFAs see that Detroit's still firmly in a rebuild, not even attempting to make the playoffs, and sign elsewhere.

Not trying to be a downer, but a realist.

Why did you stop there? After all the free agents refuse to sign here, Steve realizes this is a lost cause and retires from hockey altogether and goes into seclusion. Angry Pro Yzerman supporters, enraged by his self exile, storm LCA and capture the Ilitches, to demand they reach out and return Stevie to his rightful place. This leads to a standoff with local authorities, eventually the feds get involved in an obvious Detroit secession attempt, bingo bango, everyone dies in nuclear fire.

All because we traded Bertuzzi.

 

[lilidk]

Why did you stop there? After all the free agents refuse to sign here, Steve realizes this is a lost cause and retires from hockey altogether and goes into seclusion. Angry Pro Yzerman supporters, enraged by his self exile, storm LCA and capture the Ilitches, to demand they reach out and return Stevie to his rightful place. This leads to a standoff with local authorities, eventually the feds get involved in an obvious Detroit secession attempt, bingo bango, everyone dies in nuclear fire.

All because we traded Bertuzzi.

Sometimes little things could change everything, you never know .

 

[Frk It]

Not trading Bert is a mistake. I'm sorry, but I don't want to miss getting something when I honestly believe we are missing the playoffs. We are close now with games in hand, but we got 4 of our 5 wins against two teams in complete disarray. I want playoffs too, but I don't think we will end up making it, and if we don't trade Bert and then lose him for nothing, is not what our team needs right now. 5 wins in a row is already super good, how many are we realistically going to get. Larkin isn't going to keep scoring 1-2 goals for a long stretch here.

So lets say we make the playoffs and lost 1st round, we draft later, we gain no assets from keeping UFAs and a few playoff games don't really make a world of difference experience wise for players.

Not trying to be a downer, but a realist!

I have to believe that part of that report is not just that they want Bert for a possible playoff push but also that they believe they are in a good spot to re-sign him.

Would be stupid to take him off the trade block for our low % odds at the playoffs and end up losing him for nothing.

 

[SirloinUB]

I have to believe that part of that report is not just that they want Bert for a possible playoff push but also that they believe they are in a good spot to re-sign him.

Would be stupid to take him off the trade block for our low % odds at the playoffs and end up losing him for nothing.

To me this development has to be indicative of what the offers are/were at for Bertuzzi. If Yzerman was getting an O’Reilly type of return he probably would have pulled the trigger already.

With that in mind I’m probably aligned with Pavels Dog. Selling Bertuzzi for a 2nd would be a good way to piss off larkin and lower expectations for the organization.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Why did you stop there? After all the free agents refuse to sign here, Steve realizes this is a lost cause and retires from hockey altogether and goes into seclusion. Angry Pro Yzerman supporters, enraged by his self exile, storm LCA and capture the Ilitches, to demand they reach out and return Stevie to his rightful place. This leads to a standoff with local authorities, eventually the feds get involved in an obvious Detroit secession attempt, bingo bango, everyone dies in nuclear fire.

All because we traded Bertuzzi.

It's just like that ashton kutcher movie, the bertuzzi effect.

 

[Snuggs]

I've never really been in the camp that'll he'll fetch a 1st plus.

He's in an injury ridden, down year. He'll need to be resigned and most likely... hits the market as a UFA wherever he goes.

Pure rental to wherever he's going to be traded. I don't see a ton of teams lining up to cough up a first rounder, let alone more. I think if Red wings do trade Bertuzzi it'll be for a 2nd rounder and some filler or a swap like Alexis Lafreniere(not necessarily him; just a reclamation project like him.)

Not sure it makes much sense to keep him and lose him for nothing, playoff push or not. Red Wings actually have enough depth to replace Bertuzzi, imo. Wish he'd just resign at 3years for 4 million so we could keep him, but there are guys knocking on the door that could help ease the loss of Bertuzzi.

I think this is smoke, trying to drive up offers. I'm not sure he stays on the team unless literally teams are offering up 4th rounders and mid-level prospects. Likely to hold on to him till TDL day to squeeze as many games as possible out of him, imo.

 

[SirloinUB]

I've never really been in the camp that'll he'll fetch a 1st plus.

He's in an injury ridden, down year. He'll need to be resigned and most likely... hits the market as a UFA wherever he goes.

Pure rental to wherever he's going to be traded. I don't see a ton of teams lining up to cough up a first rounder, let alone more. I think if Red wings do trade Bertuzzi it'll be for a 2nd rounder and some filler or a swap like Alexis Lafreniere(not necessarily him; just a reclamation project like him.)

Not sure it makes much sense to keep him and lose him for nothing, playoff push or not. Red Wings actually have enough depth to replace Bertuzzi, imo. Wish he'd just resign at 3years for 4 million so we could keep him, but there are guys knocking on the door that could help ease the loss of Bertuzzi.

I think this is smoke, trying to drive up offers. I'm not sure he stays on the team unless literally teams are offering up 4th rounders and mid-level prospects. Likely to hold on to him till TDL day to squeeze as many games as possible out of him, imo.

But if it’s a 2nd from a contender it’s going to be a late one. The 53rd overall pick and a B prospect isn’t valuable and is even worse within the context of competing for a playoff spot. If a 1st isn’t on the table Bertuzzi has more value to this team helping the playoff push.

Trading him for a menial pick sewers the team and would probably be the nail in the coffin for keeping Larkin.

 

[14ari13]

Why did you stop there? After all the free agents refuse to sign here, Steve realizes this is a lost cause and retires from hockey altogether and goes into seclusion. Angry Pro Yzerman supporters, enraged by his self exile, storm LCA and capture the Ilitches, to demand they reach out and return Stevie to his rightful place. This leads to a standoff with local authorities, eventually the feds get involved in an obvious Detroit secession attempt, bingo bango, everyone dies in nuclear fire.

All because we traded Bertuzzi.

I think you have a talent for writing a book. How about the drama around the trade deadline?
I think it would work.

 

[Reddwit]

Cross off Bert

Lots of caveats here:
“For now…”
“For the time being”

Still a good chance he’s moved if/when the Wings slow down the next week or two.

 

[heyfolks]

I'd like to see Bert resigned but if that deal isn't inked by the deadline, he will be dealt. Yzerman isn't a fool. He isn't losing top 6 talent for nothing. He also understands winning 20 of the last 29 or so isn't realistic. Wings have a tough end of season schedule.

On the flip side, no way he kills the team build started by George! The team wants to make it tough on him, so he accepts the challenge.... OK boys, no trades. Lets se what you have. Of course they lose the next game, but a good trip. That Caps game is big. < Look at their SOS. They'll pile up points.

NHL Remaining Schedule Strength | Tankathon

Shows the remaining strength of schedule for NHL teams based on the points per game of the opponents left on their schedule.

www.tankathon.com

 

[RED WINGS STOMP]

I think 94-96 points gets you into the playoffs. 15 wins coupled with some OT losses can get you there. Winning games against the competition will be critical.

 

[ViD]

Is there a possibility of Larkin being traded in the off season, before the draft, if the extension can’t be negotiated ?

Would Detroit be interested in a deal built around Laine?

Columbus would obviously want to reach extension agreement with him; I wonder if he would be interested to be reunited with Werenski and another American superstar JG

 

[datsyukfan]

Is there a possibility of Larkin being traded in the off season, before the draft, if the extension can’t be negotiated ?

Would Detroit be interested in a deal built around Laine?

Columbus would obviously want to reach extension agreement with him; I wonder if he would be interested to be reunited with Werenski and another American superstar JG

Doubt it, and definitely not for laine

 

[Oddbob]

Let's say we sell him for a 2nd round pick this year. Lockerroom morale is destroyed, the team goes into tailspin to finish the year. Larkin realizes the team doesn't want to win and leaves for nothing in UFA. Seider and Raymond question Yzerman's committment to winning and sign only short-term deals. Big UFAs see that Detroit's still firmly in a rebuild, not even attempting to make the playoffs, and sign elsewhere.

Not trying to be a downer, but a realist.

Even if I was a player, I would know you need lots of talent to win in the playoffs and we are not there yet. I honestly feel as though Steve would likely be more open with the captain of the team about what his plans are in the near future and Dylan and many others would know we aren't good enough yet to lost pieces for nothing. What is the benefit if we miss the playoffs anyways as we are likely to do, and lose key pieces for nothing?

Also, why would morale be destroyed. Are players not human beings who would understand the motivation of a GM who is trying to make the team better?

 

[Oddbob]

I have to believe that part of that report is not just that they want Bert for a possible playoff push but also that they believe they are in a good spot to re-sign him.

Would be stupid to take him off the trade block for our low % odds at the playoffs and end up losing him for nothing.

Do we really want him re-signed long term though? I agree it could just be media posturing because we are close right now though. My concern is Bert gets hurt every season, and if he can't last healthily through a regular season, how is he going to be able to make it through playoffs. I know the two hand things were flukes, but it also can just be he is injury prone as well, as he also had a lower body injury this season as well.

 

[Oddbob]

But if it’s a 2nd from a contender it’s going to be a late one. The 53rd overall pick and a B prospect isn’t valuable and is even worse within the context of competing for a playoff spot. If a 1st isn’t on the table Bertuzzi has more value to this team helping the playoff push.

Trading him for a menial pick sewers the team and would probably be the nail in the coffin for keeping Larkin.

I agree that isn't an exciting return, but neither is losing a player like him for free. If we were already a playoff team and we keep him with the risk of losing him that makes sense. But games in hand or not, we aren't going to win all of them. To me, the Seattle game is how we play most games, not that many chances from our team, and if we don't get some early goals we lose because we aren't out-chancing teams ahead of us in the standings. You can't win on the regular unless you are at least even in this regard or you have Hasek in net.

Is there a possibility of Larkin being traded in the off season, before the draft, if the extension can’t be negotiated ?

Would Detroit be interested in a deal built around Laine?

Columbus would obviously want to reach extension agreement with him; I wonder if he would be interested to be reunited with Werenski and another American superstar JG

I absolutely wouldn't. Laine is a good offensive player, but he isn't as good as Dylan in the other areas of the game, and we would be in serious trouble if Laine is the replacement for Larkin. This team only does well if Larkin does well, and Laine doesn't have that same pull from what I have seen on his team.

 

[Claypool]

Do we really want him re-signed long term though? I agree it could just be media posturing because we are close right now though. My concern is Bert gets hurt every season, and if he can't last healthily through a regular season, how is he going to be able to make it through playoffs. I know the two hand things were flukes, but it also can just be he is injury prone as well, as he also had a lower body injury this season as well.

The time to trade Bert and Larkin was this past offseason. That was when their value was at their maximum.

There was no point in keeping either player because there was a good chance Yzerman would be in the same position he's in right now. He probably could have gotten a 1st round pick for both, and likely a blue chip prospect or two, but now there's a chance both walk for nothing. Bad asset management.

 

[Oddbob]

The time to trade Bert and Larkin was this past offseason. That was when their value was at their maximum.

There was no point in keeping either player because there was a good chance Yzerman would be in the same position he's in right now. He probably could have gotten a 1st round pick for both, and likely a blue chip prospect or two, but now there's a chance both walk for nothing. Bad asset management.

Not sure what you mean the time to trade them was the offseason. UFAs to be either get resigned or traded at the deadline every single year.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Even if I was a player, I would know you need lots of talent to win in the playoffs and we are not there yet. I honestly feel as though Steve would likely be more open with the captain of the team about what his plans are in the near future and Dylan and many others would know we aren't good enough yet to lost pieces for nothing. What is the benefit if we miss the playoffs anyways as we are likely to do, and lose key pieces for nothing?

Also, why would morale be destroyed. Are players not human beings who would understand the motivation of a GM who is trying to make the team better?

Vancouver famously took a major step back when the GM traded away some key pieces of that lockerroom.

I'm just tired of the narrative that there are no downsides to trading away players.

Consider another scenario: we trade away Bertuzzi, but still make the playoffs. We lose in round 1, narrowly, and Bertuzzi kills it in the playoffs for another team, making it look as though he could have pushed us to at least the 2nd round.

Players are human beings, and humans are driven way more by emotions than by stone-cold logic. It's one thing to be 5-10 points out of the playoffs. 2-3 points with games in hand? Only a terrible GM pulls the rug out from a team that's finally putting something together.

 

[Snuggs]

But if it’s a 2nd from a contender it’s going to be a late one. The 53rd overall pick and a B prospect isn’t valuable and is even worse within the context of competing for a playoff spot. If a 1st isn’t on the table Bertuzzi has more value to this team helping the playoff push.

Trading him for a menial pick sewers the team and would probably be the nail in the coffin for keeping Larkin.

Vancouver famously took a major step back when the GM traded away some key pieces of that lockerroom.

I'm just tired of the narrative that there are no downsides to trading away players.

Consider another scenario: we trade away Bertuzzi, but still make the playoffs. We lose in round 1, narrowly, and Bertuzzi kills it in the playoffs for another team, making it look as though he could have pushed us to at least the 2nd round.

Players are human beings, and humans are driven way more by emotions than by stone-cold logic. It's one thing to be 5-10 points out of the playoffs. 2-3 points with games in hand? Only a terrible GM pulls the rug out from a team that's finally putting something together.

K guys... we need to realistically look at the chances of making the playoffs, let alone making hypotheticals about winning a series, yadda yadda.

The odds say, Red Wings aren't going to make the playoffs and that Bertuzzi won't be resigned by UFA season.

Yzeman can read the situation are react or do nothing. Doing nothing, is potentially the costliest. I actually don't think a playoff appearance hinges on Bertuzzi.

Larkins resigning seems to have nothing to do with Bertuzzi/the team and more to do with term, money. He's already said he'd like to say unless he's just lying.

Maybe even think of this as reverse.... Would anyone here give up a 2nd rdp even for a guy like Bertuzzi just for a playoff push? I'm not ready to bring in a winger 1 year for a 2nd rdp plus, so why would I want to keep one when teams are offering something similar to what I said (2nd rdp plus)? For a playoff run that I can still maintain with or without the particular player. IT's not even giving up, it's just a situation. If either side was anywhere in the ballpark in terms of resigning, different, but they've sounded far apart for a while now and I really think Bertuzzi's best interest in terms of money is to hit the open market.

 

[Henkka]

We should keep Bertuzzi.

You keep the better players. Tuzzi is cleary a Top6 guy, for next 5 years, before any masses of Red Wings propects are ready to beat out out from the roster.

It takes 5 years, and Tuzzi can be signed for that era, easily, without creating any kind of problem. He is a great add on the team, and he is not gonna break the bank more from UFA than he will get from Steve.

 

[Snuggs]

We should keep Bertuzzi.

You keep the better players. Tuzzi is cleary a Top6 guy, for next 5 years, before any masses of Red Wings propects are ready to beat out out from the roster.

It takes 5 years, and Tuzzi can be signed for that era, easily, without creating any kind of problem. He is a great add on the team, and he is not gonna break the bank more from UFA than he will get from Steve.

He's not signing here though.

So your whole point is really moot. It really really is.

This is a bad take. He'll literally get more in UFA. I almost guarantee it.

 

[jkutswings]

Not counting his rookie cup of coffee, here's how many games Bert has played each year:

48/82
73/82
71/71
9/56
68/82
24/55

Total: 293/428 (68.46%, or an average of 56 games out of 82)

I like his skill set. But I'm not sticking with a guy who misses nearly a third of the season. If there's a decent deal, I'm trading him.