Prospect Info: Wings come in at #9 on Scott Wheeler's Prospect Pool Rankings (Paywall: The Athletic)

[ArmChairGM89]

But that wouldn't only raise the Wings. Then we have to include all the other Zadina-like players that got left off other teams lists?

In the comments he says if he kept zadina in the list they would improve to as high as 6th. Doesnt address you whole post but ads a little insight.

 

[Frk It]

But the huge difference is in football, these guys are 21-24 already by draft day. So you've already watched their entirely college development and they've turned into men during that time. Even with that advantage, there's plenty of busts. But fewer big surprises than when you're plucking kids out of junior leagues at age 17-18.

And they are all playing in the same league, the NCAA.

Hockey you have these kids spread out across the QMJHL, WHL, OHL, USHL, USHS, DEL, SHL, KHL, VHL, MHL, Liiga, Mestis, and on and on...

Different countries, different age groups, different continents... it's absolutely insane.

How do I evaluate Lucas Raymond getting 10 min a night in a Swedish men's league and compare him to Jaime Drysdale playing 24 min a night in the OHL against teenagers?

 

[Bench]

And they are all playing in the same league, the NCAA.

Hockey you have these kids spread out across the QMJHL, WHL, OHL, USHL, USHS, DEL, SHL, KHL, VHL, MHL, Liiga, Mestis, and on and on...

Different countries, different age groups, different continents... it's absolutely insane.

How do I evaluate Lucas Raymond getting 10 min a night in a Swedish men's league and compare him to Jaime Drysdale playing 24 min a night in the OHL against teenagers?

Man, this is super true, too. It really is insane all the factors you have to take into account. You're projecting 5 years out on kids that are playing in different parts of the world.

 

[ArmChairGM89]

How do I evaluate Lucas Raymond getting 10 min a night in a Swedish men's league and compare him to Jaime Drysdale playing 24 min a night in the OHL against teenagers?

you draft Tim Stutzle, that’s how.

haha I kid I kid.

 

[Ezekial]

Meanwhile, I watched all 4 of my NFL team's top draft picks play this year with a full-time job on the roster. Immediately. Drafted in spring, boom, on the field in fall. And 2 of them were full-time starters.

Well, Bench, not everyone is a fan of the great Green Bay Packers, and are blessed with such watchable football seasons (generally)

 

[Hen Kolland]

Givani Smith has played 18 games for the Wings this year and I'm sure Zadina will "bounce back" to the AHL for the playoffs, so it is kind of stupid. He's technically been sent down 2 times since New Years, and played in the AHL once.

I think you're entering the realm of nitpicking with Zadina. He's been a part of the Griffins team once since his most recent call-up. Paper transactions are not relevant. He went down because the team had the flexibility and the NHL team wasn't playing.

Eye test alone tells us that Zadina has graduated.

 

[Flowah]

Honestly, it's so much harder for me to get excited about the NHL draft compared to the NFL draft for that reason. NHL draft is like "Wooo we got Seider! Can't wait to see him play in... 2 years? 3? Probably 3 until he's full-time. And all the other picks, hell yeah, see you guys in 4 years!"

That's my feeling too from the data.

Which means my strategy would be to get as many picks as possible and just take as many shots as I can.

There's basically no difference in PPG from the average player in the 2nd and 5th round. It's 0.41PPG vs 0.39 PPG. The difference is the number of players who become NHL regulars. So you have a bunch of busts in the 5th round who never play a single NHL game and don't drag down that PPG average. ~30% of forwards picked in the 3rd round play 41+ games in the NHL and only ~17% of the 5th rounders do.

Just need to get as many picks as you can and shoot your shot. Outside of getting lucky in the draft lottery there's no other way. Free agents are typically too old and too expensive as a way to build your team. Trades require you to give up decent players and high picks to get anything good in return.

 

[Hen Kolland]

Quick question: how many guys do you think the Wings could pull up from GR who couldn't contribute to Wings and look like an NHLer (at least in comparison to the guy they'd be replacing)? I could put Rasmussen or Veleno in Ehn or Perlini or Erne's spot, play them 20 games, and suddenly they are a developing young player.

Also, Zadina got his spot because of injuries, and there's no telling how long his stay would have been because he's now injured (and the Wings still aren't healthy).

And I hate to say it, but how does he look at cholowski and see a guy who looks like an NHLer right now, especially one who is contributing in any way beyond being a warm body?

I guess the point here is that the NHL team is strongly involved in determining who is and isn't a prospect based on how they are deploying them. Rasmussen's injuries have complicated things, but he had an entire year at the NHL level and they still chose to send him to GR. Prospect. Veleno has been in the AHL, has not been called up, and was released to participate in a juniors tournament. Prospect. Zadina was brought up due to injuries, but they elected to burn a year on his contract, have promoted him up the lineup, and treated him like an important part of the roster. They have not actually sent Zadina down at the risk of missing an NHL game since burning his year 1. The team has kind of planted their flag on him.

Cholowski is in a weird limbo state. He is around the point where he should be graduating, but looks like he keeps failing his finals. The kid is a semester's worth of college credits short.

 

[Ezekial]

I think you're entering the realm of nitpicking with Zadina. He's been a part of the Griffins team once since his most recent call-up. Paper transactions are not relevant. He went down because the team had the flexibility and the NHL team wasn't playing.

Eye test alone tells us that Zadina has graduated.

It's inconsistent. Adam Boqvist is the #1 hawks prospect, he's played 11 NHL games since January 1 and he's playing in #12 tonight. Zadina has played in 12. Both will have 28 gp tonight. Zadina has played in more AHL games this season as well.

 

[newfy]

2017 draft really walloped us. Maybe a third line player with our first pick(a top ten pick at that) and maybe a bottom pairing defenseman out of, what, 11 picks? Oof.

When is this stupid hating on Rasmussen shit going to end? Maybe a third liner? Its a bad draft fo sure but thats a horrible take.

Hes in what should be his first pro season and playing as the first line center of his AHL team. Hes having a really productive year while he does it and him coming back into the line up coincided with the griffins actually starting to win hockey games. He could just as easily be tracking to be a 2nd line center or top line winger but lets say hes maybe a third liner at best because it makes out point sound better

 

[ArmChairGM89]

When is this stupid hating on Rasmussen **** going to end? Maybe a third liner? Its a bad draft fo sure but thats a horrible take.

Hes in what should be his first pro season and playing as the first line center of his AHL team. Hes having a really productive year while he does it and him coming back into the line up coincided with the griffins actually starting to win hockey games. He could just as easily be tracking to be a 2nd line center or top line winger but lets say hes maybe a third liner at best because it makes out point sound better

he’s not a puck carrying play driver. To some people, that translates to bottom six checker. It’s an all or nothing world, I guess.

 

[ThankGord]

When is this stupid hating on Rasmussen **** going to end? Maybe a third liner? Its a bad draft fo sure but thats a horrible take.

Hes in what should be his first pro season and playing as the first line center of his AHL team. Hes having a really productive year while he does it and him coming back into the line up coincided with the griffins actually starting to win hockey games. He could just as easily be tracking to be a 2nd line center or top line winger but lets say hes maybe a third liner at best because it makes out point sound better

This. He's still putting up really solid numbers while the coaching staff is having him focus on getting down low to support the defense and play a responsible game. And he's only 20 years old.

Big forwards take longer to develop, think about Mantha's development.

 

[Run the Jewels]

Pretty disappointing to not even be in at east the top 5, but like Hammett said it should definitely be improving. The newly hired scouts hopefully will improve our track record.

In his article he pointed out that Detroit has had more picks than any other NHL franchise over the past 3 years. So yeah, not great being at #9 but there are some intriguing guys. He does seem to like the last draft class quite a bit which is a great sign. Hopefully we can add Lafreniere and a few other quality prospects this summer.

 

[Winger98]

I guess the point here is that the NHL team is strongly involved in determining who is and isn't a prospect based on how they are deploying them. Rasmussen's injuries have complicated things, but he had an entire year at the NHL level and they still chose to send him to GR. Prospect. Veleno has been in the AHL, has not been called up, and was released to participate in a juniors tournament. Prospect. Zadina was brought up due to injuries, but they elected to burn a year on his contract, have promoted him up the lineup, and treated him like an important part of the roster. They have not actually sent Zadina down at the risk of missing an NHL game since burning his year 1. The team has kind of planted their flag on him.

Cholowski is in a weird limbo state. He is around the point where he should be graduating, but looks like he keeps failing his finals. The kid is a semester's worth of college credits short.

How much of Rasmussen still being in GR has to do with him being injured for so long this season and literally missing the opportunity to be called up? And @Ezekial brings up Boquist who has a very similar situation to Zadina but somehow gets labeled a prospect still. How a lot of these guys are deployed rests greatly on how good the parent club is and how injuries are affecting the lineup. If Mantha and Athanasiou weren't injured, Zadina never gets called up. If not for the ridiculous junior age rule, Rasmussen probably starts in the AHL last year instead of with Detroit.

I'm not saying Wheeler's method is wrong. I'm saying it's messy because it still invites a lot of arbitrary decisions. Just like our polls are kinda messy because how we define a prospect for them is a bit arbitrary. And it's why I might just prefer to go with waiver eligibility. The guys who are legitimately good really early will game out, and the guys who have ran out the season requirement are then nearing their mid20s. And it's easy to apply to every team.

 

[Hen Kolland]

How much of Rasmussen still being in GR has to do with him being injured for so long this season and literally missing the opportunity to be called up? And @Ezekial brings up Boquist who has a very similar situation to Zadina but somehow gets labeled a prospect still. How a lot of these guys are deployed rests greatly on how good the parent club is and how injuries are affecting the lineup. If Mantha and Athanasiou weren't injured, Zadina never gets called up. If not for the ridiculous junior age rule, Rasmussen probably starts in the AHL last year instead of with Detroit.

I'm not saying Wheeler's method is wrong. I'm saying it's messy because it still invites a lot of arbitrary decisions. Just like our polls are kinda messy because how we define a prospect for them is a bit arbitrary. And it's why I might just prefer to go with waiver eligibility. The guys who are legitimately good really early will game out, and the guys who have ran out the season requirement are then nearing their mid20s. And it's easy to apply to every team.

But it’s also immensely misguiding. Elias Pettersson played a full season in the NHL last year. He’s currently playing in the NHL at over a point per game pace, and has two more years of waiver eligibility. Is he a prospect? Or is he a premier player in the league? You can’t really be both.

As for Zadina, I’m sure it’s easy for you to just assume he doesn’t get called up, but the team has also said they would move him up when it was his time and when he was ready. He was showing signs of clicking in Grand Rapids, and the Wings are a horrible team. I find it hard to believe he doesn’t get a call up despite injuries.

And on Rasmussen, you glanced over the fact that he was healthy and the team chose to send him down to start the year. While the injury has slowed his season down, he’s been back, and it’s not like the team hasn’t had a need for talented players. They still haven’t called him up.

I can’t speak for the Boqvist assessment. His application of the criteria is out of my control, but I don’t mind how he has it laid out in theory.

 

[Cyborg Yzerberg]

When is this stupid hating on Rasmussen **** going to end? Maybe a third liner? Its a bad draft fo sure but thats a horrible take.

Hes in what should be his first pro season and playing as the first line center of his AHL team. Hes having a really productive year while he does it and him coming back into the line up coincided with the griffins actually starting to win hockey games. He could just as easily be tracking to be a 2nd line center or top line winger but lets say hes maybe a third liner at best because it makes out point sound better

I don’t know what to tell you, I don’t see it. Guy looks like a third liner to me. If he turns into a top six player, great, I just don’t think that’s very likely.

 

[Hen Kolland]

I don’t know what to tell you, I don’t see it. Guy looks like a third liner to me. If he turns into a top six player, great, I just don’t think that’s very likely.

Hockey is so positionless and teams are striving for depth at this stage, so to see someone like Rasmussen play anywhere in the top 9 as a complementary winger or a depth center isn’t exactly earth shattering or unfounded to suggest.

Rasmussen has a top 9 NHL future. He might not drive his line, but neither does Tyler Bertuzzi and he’s held down a first line role for over a year now and made it to an all star game to top it off. Bertuzzi isn’t a top tier player, but his game just fits on what was a decent first line with Mantha healthy. That’s how I feel Rasmussen’s career is going to pan out. He’s either going to be among the best players on his line lower in the lineup, or he will be a very good fit as a complementary player on a higher line.

 

[Bench]

I don’t know what to tell you, I don’t see it. Guy looks like a third liner to me. If he turns into a top six player, great, I just don’t think that’s very likely.

Getzlaf was always our greatest hope with him. At age 20 Getz was dunking 33 points in 17 AHL games. And 39 points in 57 NHL games. Age 21 he throws up 58 points in 82 games. From then on he's PPG.

Just throwing that out there to say that's what it would be looking like if Ras was treading towards the top line player. Haven't given up hope he could be a second line boon and a PP weapon.

 

[newfy]

I don’t know what to tell you, I don’t see it. Guy looks like a third liner to me. If he turns into a top six player, great, I just don’t think that’s very likely.

So he makes the NHL at 19 and doesnt look great, and hes maybe a third liner? Thats different than thinking hes going to be a third liner though when you put emphasis on maybe and make it sound like if hes lucky he'll be that. He could end up a third liner for sure but hes trending in the way of a top 6 player and if hes a third liner its because of the depth Detroit will have. A 6'6 third line shut down center that can put up 50 points with PP time is a really useful weapon.

Getzlaf was always our greatest hope with him. At age 20 Getz was dunking 33 points in 17 AHL games. And 39 points in 57 NHL games. Age 21 he throws up 58 points in 82 games. From then on he's PPG.

Just throwing that out there to say that's what it would be looking like if Ras was treading towards the top line player. Haven't given up hope he could be a second line boon and a PP weapon.

Trending towards a top line player and trending towards Getzlaf are two completely different things. Hes not trending towards all star first line, top 5 center in the game like Getzlaf was at a point in time. Thats different than a top line or top 6 player though

 

[Hockeyfannnn91]

2017 draft really walloped us. Maybe a third line player with our first pick(a top ten pick at that) and maybe a bottom pairing defenseman out of, what, 11 picks? Oof.

Considering our obvious need for defensive help choosing rasmussen with the available dmen out there was a major blunder, from what i recall though the 2017 draft as a whole has been pretty crap so far

 

[deca guard]

prospects arent the whole picture , theres other factors thatll play just as important a role in redwings future . A#1 is yzerman , a huge edge as maybe the best gm in nhl . another factor is weve got some very solid peices already in place for the long haul in larkin - bertuzzi - mantha - zadina - hronek . all of them being imo guys that could play anywhere on the top 2 units of a cup challenger . not to mention imo seiders going to be a #1 dman that very few organizations have on their depth chart , a hugely important type of player that could become worth as much as anybody in nhl . and one more factor is ide bet if yzerman wants gallant its a done deal . then theres the possible 1OA . so if wheelers right and redwings are at 9th best it doesnt mean theres 8 teams that are looking to have a brighter future .

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

@decaguard I'd add Fabbri to your "solid pieces" list, the guy is producing on a near all-time bad team.

 

[KasperTheGrittyGhost]

Hockey is so positionless and teams are striving for depth at this stage, so to see someone like Rasmussen play anywhere in the top 9 as a complementary winger or a depth center isn’t exactly earth shattering or unfounded to suggest.

Rasmussen has a top 9 NHL future. He might not drive his line, but neither does Tyler Bertuzzi and he’s held down a first line role for over a year now and made it to an all star game to top it off. Bertuzzi isn’t a top tier player, but his game just fits on what was a decent first line with Mantha healthy. That’s how I feel Rasmussen’s career is going to pan out. He’s either going to be among the best players on his line lower in the lineup, or he will be a very good fit as a complementary player on a higher line.

After watching the WJC, I think Lafrenière-Rasmussen-Zadina would be absolutely deadly in a couple years. Take the puckhandling/playmaking responsibilities off Moose’s hands and let him be a force driving the ice with two extremely skilled wingers.

 

[deca guard]

After watching the WJC, I think Lafrenière-Rasmussen-Zadina would be absolutely deadly in a couple years. Take the puckhandling/playmaking responsibilities off Moose’s hands and let him be a force driving the ice with two extremely skilled wingers.

that would be a great line , ecspecially for offensive zone face offs

 

[Winger98]

But it’s also immensely misguiding. Elias Pettersson played a full season in the NHL last year. He’s currently playing in the NHL at over a point per game pace, and has two more years of waiver eligibility. Is he a prospect? Or is he a premier player in the league? You can’t really be both.

As for Zadina, I’m sure it’s easy for you to just assume he doesn’t get called up, but the team has also said they would move him up when it was his time and when he was ready. He was showing signs of clicking in Grand Rapids, and the Wings are a horrible team. I find it hard to believe he doesn’t get a call up despite injuries.

And on Rasmussen, you glanced over the fact that he was healthy and the team chose to send him down to start the year. While the injury has slowed his season down, he’s been back, and it’s not like the team hasn’t had a need for talented players. They still haven’t called him up.

I can’t speak for the Boqvist assessment. His application of the criteria is out of my control, but I don’t mind how he has it laid out in theory.

I don't think it's misguiding at all. Pettersson only has 36 more games before he loses his waiver eligibility. Assuming he doesn't get hurt, he'll have to clear waivers seven games into next season. Regardless of how good he is, I don't have a big problem with calling a 21 year old a prospect.

I'm not glancing over anything with Rasmussen. The Wings need talented players. So, why isn't Seider up? Why hasn't Hirose been brought back up? Chris Terry and Matt Puempel could arguably be upgrades over guys we're still icing every night. This doesn't take anything from Zadina, or say that he shouldn't have been called up. But I don't think it would have been surprising if Zadina never got called up if the injuries didn't hit.

Not that the particulars are really the point, the point is what you get at in the bolded. Because of the subjective nature of his criteria, it's going to inherently be messy. There are going to be things like counting Boquist as a prospect while not counting Zadina despite their situations being nearly identical. While we might not like thinking of Pettersson as a prospect for 36 more games (well, 35 after tonight), waiver eligibility also makes the argument far more black and white. And, especially for when we do our prospect lists, I like the simplicity of it over having to constantly debate about whether or not Cholowski is still a prospect.

Trending towards a top line player and trending towards Getzlaf are two completely different things. Hes not trending towards all star first line, top 5 center in the game like Getzlaf was at a point in time. Thats different than a top line or top 6 player though

The hope was that he'd be Getzlaf, but the sort of impact I've always expected has been closer to Bobby Holik. And I don't have a problem with that.