Win Probability Added (WPA) - playoff point scoring

[overpass]

I created a WPA model with a Poisson scoring distribution for NHL playoff scoring. Briefly, the model calculates the team's probability of winning before the goal, after the goal, and assigns a value to the goal based on the difference.

Win probability is calculated using the assumption that a team is equally likely to score at any time throughout the game (i.e. a Poisson distribution), with a scoring frequency equal to the average of team GF and opponent GA.

No difference is made between goals and assists, and a player gets full credit for a goal on which he receives a point (just as he does with the points statistic).

Here are the top WPA point scoring playoff seasons since 1980.

1. Evgeni Malkin 2009 - 7.88 WPA
2. Joe Sakic 1996 - 7.08 WPA
3. Doug Gilmour 1993 - 6.77 WPA
4. Nikita Kucherov 2020 - 6.53 WPA
5. Brayden Point 2020 - 6.39 WPA
6. Connor McDavid 2024 - 6.38 WPA
7. Mario Lemieux 1991 - 6.38 WPA
8. Mark Recchi 1991 - 6.27 WPA
9. Wayne Gretzky 1993 - 6.24 WPA
10. Peter Forsberg 2002 - 6.23 WPA

I think it's interesting to see a playoff scoring leaderboard that isn't dominated by Gretzky and Lemieux, although they are present.

Here are the top WPA per game playoff seasons since 1980 (minimum 15 GP)
1. Leon Draisaitl 2022 - 0.372 WPA/GP
2. Connor McDavid 2022 - 0.354 WPA/GP
3. Mario Lemieux 1992 - 0.342 WPA/GP
4. Wayne Gretzky 1988 - 0.333 WPA/GP
5. Evgeni Malkin 2009 - 0.328 WPA/GP
6. Doug Gilmour 1993 - 0.323 WPA/GP
7. Joe Sakic 1996 - 0.322 WPA/GP
8. Wayne Gretzky 1985 - 0.312 WPA/GP
9. Peter Forsberg 2002 - 0.312 WPA/GP
10. Matthew Tkachuk 2023 - 0.298 WPA/GP

And here are the top WPA per point playoff seasons since 1980 of the seasons I've calculated (which is far from all of them).
This shows whose points were the most valuable, on average. It favours players in lower scoring eras, as well as players who frequently scored key points and rarely scored meaningless points.

1. Joe Nieuwendyk 1999, 0.258 WPA/P
2. Jarome Iginla 2004, 0.252 WPA/P
3. Matthew Tkachuk 2023, 0.248 WPA/P
4. Patrick Kane 2013, 0.231 WPA/P
5. Peter Forsberg 2002, 0.231 WPA/P
6. Evgeni Malkin 2009, 0.219 WPA/P
7. Joe Sakic 1996, 0.208 WPA/P
8. Daniel Briere 2010, 0.206 WPA/P
9. David Krejci 2013, 0.206 WPA/P
10. Sidney Crosby 2008, 0.203 WPA/P

And the lowest WPA per point (higher scoring eras, more meaningless points). Playing for dominant teams also lends itself to lower WPA.

1. Mike Bossy 1981, 0.115 WPA/P
2. Wayne Gretzky 1985, 0.119 WPA/P
3. Steve Yzerman 1998, 0.127 WPA/P
4. Wayne Gretzky 1984, 0.128 WPA/P
5. Rick Middleton 1983, 0.130 WPA/P

 

[Bear of Bad News]

I like this a lot - it's also consistent with the knowledge that in high-scoring eras, it takes more goals to "buy" a victory.

 

[overpass]

I like this a lot - it's also consistent with the knowledge that in high-scoring eras, it takes more goals to "buy" a victory.

Yeah, the scoring era adjustment is built in.

The scoring level of goals/game can be compared with the inverse of WPA/game. Both could be considered the number of goals to buy a victory.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

Thanks for sharing. This is exactly what I was planning to get to (at some point). Do you have a summary of the highest career scorers under this method? (Obviously that favours players who played in more playoff games, but curious to see how Gretzky looks compared to Crosby/Sakic/Yzerman).