Willy Ny contract thread part Se7en

[mix1home]

Guys, do you think it is possible that Willy had plans to play 2C behind Matthews this year? Perhaps his agent planned to use Draisaitl example and argue for 8m if not 8.5m. If that was their plan then it went all to garbage bin with Tavares signing. They are quite delusional if they think that Willy can get his own line now and there goes that dream. Since he never played C in NHL we cannot recover assets for him as center as no other team will pay premium and then try winger at C (well, except maybe mtl lol).
So I think delay might be because Willy’s side argues for him to play C in nhl and be compensated as such, but Leafs want nothing to do with it and say that he is and will be winger.

 

[Nineteen67]

yup , we could channel our inner Dregger and make a statement like

"according to non confirmed Leaf sources the rumor is the Leafs are holding firm at a 3.5m x 8yr offer"

and if we repeat it enough Clueless Shilton and the rest of the media will pick it up and run with it and when it's repeated enough everyone will think it's a fact and believe the Leafs mgmt are being unreasonable and blame them for the stalemate

Unfortunately the media does this far too often. Sometime is naivety, like some covering the Leafs , sometimes it’s agenda driven, like CNN, MSNBC, Fox News.
Which is why I never believe anything I hear.

 

[Walshy7]

Guys, do you think it is possible that Willy had plans to play 2C behind Matthews this year? Perhaps his agent planned to use Draisaitl example and argue for 8m if not 8.5m. If that was their plan then it went all to garbage bin with Tavares signing. They are quite delusional if they think that Willy can get his own line now and there goes that dream. Since he never played C in NHL we cannot recover assets for him as center as no other team will pay premium and then try winger at C (well, except maybe mtl lol).
So I think delay might be because Willy’s side argues for him to play C in nhl and be compensated as such, but Leafs want nothing to do with it and say that he is and will be winger.

I mean he has said maybe a dozen times in interviews he doesn't care where he plays wing or center, he may have been trying to be diplomatic but youd think if he was a desperate as you think in your post he would have been adamant he was a center

 

[MyBudJT]

no Nylander proved he is a 60 point player twice in contract negotiations, Ehelers proved he could do it once when he signed. If Ehlers was up for contract right now with 2 60 point seasons he would be asking for more than $6M he chose security Nylander chose to bet on himself. I said nothing of pastrnak

You have like literally no information to base your statement regarding Ehlers... it’s okay to have the opinion, but please don’t confuse that with facts

 

[Throw More Waffles]

His agent isn't a wizard, nobody was projecting a 4.5M increase

Ehlers opted for security and the cap took a sizable jump

Woops

Sure, the cap ceiling lulled the past few seasons... but since the cap was introduced, it's on average gone up somewhere near 4 million per season. This is pretty much a more back to normal cap increase. Ehler's agent would have negotiated at a cap ceiling somewhere in the ballpark of the current ceiling. If Nylander's agent makes the argument that the cap ceiling is a million or so higher than Ehler's agent negotiated, I'm ok with that. It barely changes anything.

What Ehlers did doesn't matter his contract was already signed.
Nylander proved he's a 60 point player by doing it twice in two years, there's some value in that negotiation wise

If all Nylander has done is prove he's a 60 point player, then he should be paid like a 60 point player. All Ehlers had done was prove he's a 60 point player as well (in fact, his numbers in 2016/17 season were better overall than Nylanders.)

 

[Throw More Waffles]

no Nylander proved he is a 60 point player twice in contract negotiations, Ehelers proved he could do it once when he signed. If Ehlers was up for contract right now with 2 60 point seasons he would be asking for more than $6M he chose security Nylander chose to bet on himself. I said nothing of pastrnak

Again, the final year of an entry level contract is by far what matters the most. If Nylander got 80 points last season and only 40 the season before, make no mistake that he would be asking for far more money than he currently is.

I brought up Pastrnak because it's another contract that doesn't bode well with what Nylander is (allegedly) asking for. There's more to this negotiation than just comparing things to Ehlers you know...

 

[mix1home]

Again, the final year of an entry level contract is by far what matters the most. If Nylander got 80 points last season and only 40 the season before, make no mistake that he would be asking for far more money than he currently is.

I brought up Pastrnak because it's another contract that doesn't bode well with what Nylander is (allegedly) asking for. There's more to this negotiation than just comparing things to Ehlers you know...

I believe that Leafs should not budge from number that is well 250k-500k less than Pastrnak contract. We are competing with Boston and if our players are getting more money per goal produced than their comparable on other side then that puts us at disadvantage. We really need better value from our players contracts to finally defeat bruins.

 

[Dreakmur]

It’s quite a bit more... rumour has it that the Leafs offer is 8x6.25

7 x7 = 49
8x6.25 = 50

 

[MyBudJT]

7 x7 = 49
8x6.25 = 50

Are you suggesting we should ignore a UFA year?

 

[shakes]

Guys, do you think it is possible that Willy had plans to play 2C behind Matthews this year?

If he does and if he thinks he should be paid as such then the Leafs should bite the bullet and trade him because he's delusional. There is no way he's going to convince anyone that he's better than John Tavares and should play in front of him. The longer he sticks with these ridiculous demands (if he's indeed asking for 8M), the better chance that the Leafs trade him because that really shouldn't be an option. If they pay him that then there is virtually no chance that they are going to be able to sign AM and/or Mitch because their demands will just go up too.
Speaking of Mitch and JT, I'm wondering though if there is some sort of media manipulation going on because I'm constantly seeing "Dynamic Duo" stuff and they are really being sold as the next big thing. If you are Nylander, there is no way you don't see this and realize that you could be another Dynamic Duo with Matthews and it must be hard to see this and know that the only reason you are sitting at home is because the team only wants to pay you around 6 million dollars a season. It's not my money so he can do what he wants but NHL contracts are guaranteed (unlike the NFL) so does he need to squeeze every last dollar out of the team? Is he really worried that 48 million dollars (6mx8) is not enough money even if, God forbid, this is his only NHL contract? It's easy for me to say because it's not my money but I know that I would rather make a lot of money and help build a dominant team rather than make a lot of money and force the team to have to get rid of a player to afford you and screw up the wage structure of the team. I hope he signs but the longer this goes on, the more I'm souring on his money first attitude.

 

[Dreakmur]

Are you suggesting we should ignore a UFA year?

You think he'll take 7x7 after he declined 6.25x8 ?

 

[MyBudJT]

You think he'll take 7x7 after he declined 6.25x8 ?

I’d be upset if the Leafs even offered it to him...

 

[Walshy7]

You have like literally no information to base your statement regarding Ehlers... it’s okay to have the opinion, but please don’t confuse that with facts

What?
Please enlighten me on these facts.

The facts are ehlers decided to sign last off-season with a 38 point season and a 64 point season he signed before this last season.

Nylander has 2 61 point seasons and a 13 point quarter of a season not sure that relevant but he did.he improved his 5 on5 scoring.

So it’s ok to say I have no facts but please provide the facts that I don’t have.

 

[MyBudJT]

What?
Please enlighten me on these facts.

The facts are ehlers decided to sign last off-season with a 38 point season and a 64 point season he signed before this last season.

Nylander has 2 61 point seasons and a 13 point quarter of a season not sure that relevant but he did.he improved his 5 on5 scoring.

So it’s ok to say I have no facts but please provide the facts that I don’t have.

You have no basis to suggest that Ehlers would have asked for more than 6mil had he not signed his 7yr x 6mil contract... Its okay to THINK that, but to state it as FACT is not right...

 

[Martin Skoula]

You think he'll take 7x7 after he declined 6.25x8 ?

7x7 is massively better value from Nylander's perspective than 6.25x8, what are you talking about?

 

[Menzinger]

Re the Pasta contract

An often overlooked fact in this thread is that the deal was only for 6 years. If he was signed for 7-8 years he would be making 7-8 mil per.

 

[Dreakmur]

7x7 is massively better value from Nylander's perspective than 6.25x8, what are you talking about?

Depends what the next CBA looks like. He wants 8 years for a reason.

 

[rent free]

Meh. This will end up going like Hampus Lindholm's negotiations. The leafs will win this game of chicken and sign him for about $6.5 million by the end of October.

The only thing I find slightly irritating is that Ennis is getting a shot with Matthews and not Kapanen.

they have a point in giving that spot to a guy with a history of producing goals/points rather than to the next michael grabner.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

What?
Please enlighten me on these facts.

The facts are ehlers decided to sign last off-season with a 38 point season and a 64 point season he signed before this last season.

Nylander has 2 61 point seasons and a 13 point quarter of a season not sure that relevant but he did.he improved his 5 on5 scoring.

So it’s ok to say I have no facts but please provide the facts that I don’t have.

So if Nylander had 80 points last year (the final year of his entry level contract), and only 40 the points the season before, would he be seeking a contract as a proven 80 point player? Would he be seeking more money than the back to back 60 points seasons he had?

 

[Leafsman]

It's a very good guideline, far better than saying look at what that guy signed for before the cap rose, if that happened salaries would never increase



Nylander's best comparable signed at a totally different salary cap number, % of cap is the fairest way of doing it for both sides

When the cap goes up salaries go up, once the player signs and is on his new contract if the cap rises over time his deal becomes more of a bargain like Crosby's, when that was signed it was close to McDavid's 12.5M as a % of the cap but now looks like a bargain at 8.7M

There's your team benefit

Some salaries shouldn't really increase all that much. The low end talent should only see very moderate increases which is driven more by the minimum salary numbers, and not by % of cap numbers.

You just compared elite generational players which is about the only instance where % of cap is likely a factor.

You don't receive a team benefit if all the savings you get from Crosby's salary are going to pay the increases in your lower level talent. These player's salary should see a lesser degree of inflation. Once the next generational talent hits a certain stage in their contract status, you'll see that drive the next grouping of contracts up a bit but not at the same rate.

If players want to stop paying out escrow, they need to stop driving up salaries. The more they drive up salaries, the more they are going to pay in escrow.

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

While I hope he signs soon I don't think there's any rush if it means getting him at the term and price we want. He plays our deepest position, and we're fine without him in the short term. He's arguably only our 6th most important player, maybe even 7th.

 

[Kiwi]

@Kiwi that's a very simplistic way of looking at things, when negotiating for something starting a year out both sides are projecting, both performance and and cap situation.

Ehlers was signed to be a 60+ point winger in a 77+ million dollar cap environment for 7 years starting in October 2018. Both sides gambling on what could happen in the interim year.

The only difference for Nylander is that the cap went up *slightly* more than most anticipated, and that there is no interim year gamble. The team can't argue risk of regression prior to contract start, he can't argue chance of progression prior to contract start.

Throw in the extra RFA year Nylander has and Dubas has a strong case that a 7 year should be no more than 6.2 (the approximate delta between a 77m cap and 79.5.

Ehlers signed a 6M × 7 contract with the cap at 75M and one 60 point season behind him, that was his decision, he values security and wasn't willing to take the risk Nylander did

Nylander will sign his deal with 2 60 point seasons behind him and a 79.5M cap

Those are indisputable facts not projections, you get paid at the rate the cap dictates at the time of signing, you can try to project what the cap will do but I seriously doubt teams are handing over money to RFA's because the cap may go up in the future, what's the cut off date? One year into the future? Five? A team would be mad to allow that while they have leverage

When the deals start isn't the real issue here its what the cap was when both players put pen to paper

6.2M × 7? Bloody hell that's low
6.65M- 6.75M × 7 is where I think it ends up over 7

 

[Walshy7]

You have no basis to suggest that Ehlers would have asked for more than 6mil had he not signed his 7yr x 6mil contract... Its okay to THINK that, but to state it as FACT is not right...

Ok, I’m out dude.

 

[Walshy7]

So if Nylander had 80 points last year (the final year of his entry level contract), and only 40 the points the season before, would he be seeking a contract as a proven 80 point player? Would he be seeking more money than the back to back 60 points seasons he had?

I’m not sure the point of this l, he didn’t have 80 points he had 2 61 points which is better than when ehlers signed he has 38 and 64 why is that more impressive than 2 61 point seasons. it makes no sense and I think you know that but your gonna keep going on with a stupid hypothetical?

 

[4thline]

Ehlers signed a 6M × 7 contract with the cap at 75M and one 60 point season behind him, that was his decision, he values security and wasn't willing to take the risk Nylander did

Nylander will sign his deal with 2 60 point seasons behind him and a 79.5M cap

Those are indisputable facts not projections, you get paid at the rate the cap dictates at the time of signing, you can try to project what the cap will do but I seriously doubt teams are handing over money to RFA's because the cap may go up in the future, what's the cut off date? One year into the future? Five? A team would be mad to allow that while they have leverage

When the deals start isn't the real issue here its what the cap was when both players put pen to paper

6.2M × 7? Bloody hell that's low
6.65M- 6.75M × 7 is where I think it ends up over 7

The time the contract comes into effect? Pretty simple, don't make a mountain out of a molehill.
This is entirely your opinion, and it's bad business.

No one (intelligent) negotiates a multi-million dollar deal that doesn't come into effect for a full year without projecting the events of that year and where things will be on the day the deal starts. It's simple good business. Thinking otherwise is ignorance.

Ehlers having a second 60 point season maintained the status quo. The importance of past performance is in projecting future performance. Nylander hasn't proven to be any more valuable than Ehlers was when he signed, and arguably he has proven less than both the Jets and Ehlers expected Ehlers to have proven before the start date of the contract.