Willy Ny contract thread part Se7en

[4thline]

I’m not sure the point of this l, he didn’t have 80 points he had 2 61 points which is better than when ehlers signed he has 38 and 64 why is that more impressive than 2 61 point seasons. it makes no sense and I think you know that but your gonna keep going on with a stupid hypothetical?

Which 60 points is more valuable this year, the 60 points from someone who has scored 60 points once before or the 60 points from someone who as done it twice?

Follow up- why did both the Jets and Ehlers assume that Ehlers would sit out the final year of his ELC?

 

[Kiwi]

Sure, the cap ceiling lulled the past few seasons... but since the cap was introduced, it's on average gone up somewhere near 4 million per season. This is pretty much a more back to normal cap increase. Ehler's agent would have negotiated at a cap ceiling somewhere in the ballpark of the current ceiling. If Nylander's agent makes the argument that the cap ceiling is a million or so higher than Ehler's agent negotiated, I'm ok with that. It barely changes anything.



If all Nylander has done is prove he's a 60 point player, then he should be paid like a 60 point player. All Ehlers had done was prove he's a 60 point player as well (in fact, his numbers in 2016/17 season were better overall than Nylanders.)

It cap had been pretty flat for the last few years and had only gone up because of the players escalating it, Vegas really bumped the number in a big way and using an average isn't really a good idea, the cap increased exponentially early on and has flattened out over more recent history

Nylander's agent should make the argument the cap went up 4.5M last season, that's a fact and his salary should go up over Ehlers in accordance with that raise, I certainly would and that's more that a million

Nylander has a more proven record as a 60 point player, at the time of signing Ehlers had 1 that made him a riskier proposition which lowers his cap hit

Ehlers signed last year, he could have put up 120 points or 30 points, it changes nothing but both sides took on some risk we weren't comfortable in taking

Some salaries shouldn't really increase all that much. The low end talent should only see very moderate increases which is driven more by the minimum salary numbers, and not by % of cap numbers.

You just compared elite generational players which is about the only instance where % of cap is likely a factor.

You don't receive a team benefit if all the savings you get from Crosby's salary are going to pay the increases in your lower level talent. These player's salary should see a lesser degree of inflation. Once the next generational talent hits a certain stage in their contract status, you'll see that drive the next grouping of contracts up a bit but not at the same rate.

If players want to stop paying out escrow, they need to stop driving up salaries. The more they drive up salaries, the more they are going to pay in escrow.

So players shouldn't drive up salaries? Interesting take I'd have thought that's exactly what they should do as the cap climbs

Good player's get paid, Nylander is a good player coming off 2 60 point seasons in his early 20's

As soon as Ehlers signed I'd bet good money both the Leafs and Nylander's agent worked out exactly what % of the cap that was as a guide towards what Nylander's worth is, then with the cap increase did it again

While I hope he signs soon I don't think there's any rush if it means getting him at the term and price we want. He plays our deepest position, and we're fine without him in the short term. He's arguably only our 6th most important player, maybe even 7th.

The best argument for Nylander taking a 6M-6.2M × 7 you can make imo

 

[Throw More Waffles]

I’m not sure the point of this l, he didn’t have 80 points he had 2 61 points which is better than when ehlers signed he has 38 and 64 why is that more impressive than 2 61 point seasons. it makes no sense and I think you know that but your gonna keep going on with a stupid hypothetical?

The point is that the back to back 60 points doesn't matter as much as you're arguing, and I'm using a hypothetical to prove that point.

So let's try it again. If Nylander got 80 points last season (but only 40 the year before), would he be asking for a contract of a proven 80 point player? Or because he got 40 points the year before (at age 19), the 80 point season doesn't matter?

Now, we all know the answer to that question (as much as you'll try to avoid it).

If you really can't figure out what my point is from there... then I don't even know how to proceed.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

It cap had been pretty flat for the last few years and had only gone up because of the players escalating it, Vegas really bumped the number in a big way and using an average isn't really a good idea, the cap increased exponentially early on and has flattened out over more recent history

Nylander's agent should make the argument the cap went up 4.5M last season, that's a fact and his salary should go up over Ehlers in accordance with that raise, I certainly would and that's more that a million

Nylander has a more proven record as a 60 point player, at the time of signing Ehlers had 1 that made him a riskier proposition which lowers his cap hit

But Ehler's agent would have brought up a Vegas related bigger cap ceiling increase. Why wouldn't he? His specific job is to assess and argue these issues. If we can think of it on internet forums, I assure you the professionals are miles ahead of us.

So if Nylander got 80 points last season, would it "not count" because it wasn't back to back 80 points season? No. He would ask for a contract based on a proven 80 point scorer at the age of 21.

 

[Kiwi]

The time the contract comes into effect? Pretty simple, don't make a mountain out of a molehill.
This is entirely your opinion, and it's bad business.

No one (intelligent) negotiates a multi-million dollar deal that doesn't come into effect for a full year without projecting the events of that year and where things will be on the day the deal starts. It's simple good business. Thinking otherwise is ignorance.

Ehlers having a second 60 point season maintained the status quo. The importance of past performance is in projecting future performance. Nylander hasn't proven to be any more valuable than Ehlers was when he signed, and arguably he has proven less than both the Jets and Ehlers expected Ehlers to have proven before the start date of the contract.

It's a projection on a salary cap that has only been rising because of the players escalating it and the players have seriously talked about slowing/stopping because of escrow concerns

Absolutely nobody projected that rise that I know of, nobody

Ehlers and Winnipeg had far less certainty of what he actually was at the time of signing, he could easily have only got 45 points this season, he also could have gone PPG, that's a risk the team and player were willing to take that we weren't

Nylander has 2 60 point seasons in a row i can safely say he should be paid as a 60 point player which is far more projectable than Ehlers was last season

 

[Walshy7]

The point is that the back to back 60 points doesn't matter as much as you're arguing, and I'm using a hypothetical to prove that point.

So let's try it again. If Nylander got 80 points last season (but only 40 the year before), would he be asking for a contract of a proven 80 point player? Or because he got 40 points the year before (at age 19), the 80 point season doesn't matter?

Now, we all know the answer to that question (as much as you'll try to avoid it).

If you really can't figure out what my point is from there... then I don't even know how to proceed.

Of course he would ask as a 80 point player. He isn’t though is he? He’s a 61 point player with 2 pieces of evidence proving that. I’m sure in you’re still stupid scenario leafs would be trying to say “you’ve only done it once” etc. You’re point is stupid I understand it but it’s stupid.

If you think the leafs would be trying to spin that he got the same amount of points as a negative when it’s 61 f***ing points I can see why your point is stupid and you’re not just being obtuse

 

[Throw More Waffles]

It's a projection on a salary cap that has only been rising because of the players escalating it and the players have seriously talked about slowing/stopping because of escrow concerns

Absolutely nobody projected that rise that I know of, nobody

Ehlers and Winnipeg had far less certainty of what he actually was at the time of signing, he could easily have only got 45 points this season, he also could have gone PPG, that's a risk the team and player were willing to take that we weren't

Nylander has 2 60 point seasons in a row i can safely say he should be paid as a 60 point player which is far more projectable than Ehlers was last season

60 point players don't make 7 mil per.

Nylander and Ehlers wanted long term contracts based on their potential, as they are very young. At the time of negotiating contracts, both had proven they can reach 60 points at a very young age. Ehlers was a rookie the year before his 60 point season for heavens sake.

Again, if Nylander got 80 points last season, would he be negotiating as a 60 point player, or an 80 point player? It's amusing watching you try to spin away from this argument.

 

[Leafsman]

So players shouldn't drive up salaries? Interesting take I'd have thought that's exactly what they should do as the cap climbs

Good player's get paid, Nylander is a good player coming off 2 60 point seasons in his early 20's

As soon as Ehlers signed I'd bet good money both the Leafs and Nylander's agent worked out exactly what % of the cap that was as a guide towards what Nylander's worth is, then with the cap increase did it again


The best argument for Nylander taking a 6M-6.2M × 7 you can make imo

They can drive them up and squabble over a few percentage points but it is irrelevant because they won't see that money anyway because it will be lost to escrow.

Players should negotiate and accept values based on comparables to other players of the same generation.

Nylander isn't asking for Ehlers salary + cap inflation. He is asking for $8M because he doesn't agree with the comparables or believe he is at the same level as Ehlers.

I believe there should be arbitration for all players exiting their ELC up until they reach UFA and have earned the right to demand. Nylander is a great player but has hardly proven himself to a point where he can be demanding $8M. That is just ludicrous. If he wanted $8M, he should've pulled his head out of his ass during the playoffs and played like an $8M player. Promising to do so this year and getting paid in advance is not the way things work. He was aware it was a contract year, he should've played the entire year like it was.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Of course he would ask as a 80 point player. He isn’t though is he? He’s a 61 point player with 2 pieces of evidence proving that. I’m sure in you’re still stupid scenario leafs would be trying to say “you’ve only done it once” etc. You’re point is stupid I understand it but it’s stupid.

If you think the leafs would be trying to spin that he got the same amount of points as a negative when it’s 61 ****ing points I can see why your point is stupid and you’re not just being obtuse

So if Nylander got 80 points once by the age of 21, he'd be trying to get a contract as an 80 point player.

Similarly, if Ehlers got 60 points once by the same age (which he did), he'd be trying to get a contract as a 60 point player.

Similarly still, if Nylander never passed 6
You agree. Finally. So Nylander shouldn't get any more money than Ehlers because they're both only proven 60 point players. Jeez... took long enough for you to get here.

 

[4thline]

It's a projection on a salary cap that has only been rising because of the players escalating it and the players have seriously talked about slowing/stopping because of escrow concerns

Absolutely nobody projected that rise that I know of, nobody

Ehlers and Winnipeg had far less certainty of what he actually was at the time of signing, he could easily have only got 45 points this season, he also could have gone PPG, that's a risk the team and player were willing to take that we weren't

Nylander has 2 60 point seasons in a row i can safely say he should be paid as a 60 point player which is far more projectable than Ehlers was last season

There were publicly available projections of 78-82 released within months of signing. If Ehlers agent was negotiating based on expectation of a flat cap he was a moron, plain and simple. He might not have been guessing 79.5, but he definitely wasn't assuming 75.

Yes, and he did neither of those things, hence status quo. The risk of progression/regression cuts both ways, so assuming that maintaining status quo = player value add is specious at best, especially when you consider that the team didn't give him 42 f***ing million dollars on the assumption that he would regress.

 

[Kiwi]

But Ehler's agent would have brought up a Vegas related bigger cap ceiling increase. Why wouldn't he? His specific job is to assess and argue these issues. If we can think of it on internet forums, I assure you the professionals are miles ahead of us.

So if Nylander got 80 points last season, would it "not count" because it wasn't back to back 80 points season? No. He would ask for a contract based on a proven 80 point scorer at the age of 21.

We haven't had an expansion draft in recent memory, nobody had a clue what was going to happen with anything including the cap because of it, hell who thought they would be even decent?

Nylander would have a 60 point and 80 point track record and no longer be a comparable to a 60 point Ehlers but his track record would be longer so we have more certainty of what he is and that will increase his cap hit in theory

Waiting to sign guys has benefits and negatives, you have more certainty of what the player is before you sign him which is good but if the cap or his points totals jump your going to be on the hook for a higher AAV

Signing Marner and Matthews now would be a decent idea if it's possible

 

[4thline]

Of course he would ask as a 80 point player. He isn’t though is he? He’s a 61 point player with 2 pieces of evidence proving that. I’m sure in you’re still stupid scenario leafs would be trying to say “you’ve only done it once” etc. You’re point is stupid I understand it but it’s stupid.

If you think the leafs would be trying to spin that he got the same amount of points as a negative when it’s 61 ****ing points I can see why your point is stupid and you’re not just being obtuse

No you don't. Because he's not saying that 2x 60 points is a negative, he's saying that the 2nd 60 point season isn't much of a positive either. 1 time or two he's going to want to be paid as a 60 point player. Doing it twice provides some assurance to the team that it's not a fluke, but at his age and calibre no one is negotiating under the assumption that it was... so what value does it really bring to the table?

 

[Notsince67]

7 x7 = 49
8x6.25 = 50

Sure but what will the 1st year after 7 cost. That is how you value it

 

[4thline]

Signing Marner... now would be a decent idea if it's possible

Well of course, if his agent is as dumb as you think Ehlers' was than Mitch's FMV contract would be near identical to Nylander's... 2x 60 point seasons under a 79.5 million dollar cap, not allowed to project future events

 

[kb]

They can drive them up and squabble over a few percentage points but it is irrelevant because they won't see that money anyway because it will be lost to escrow.

Players should negotiate and accept values based on comparables to other players of the same generation.

Nylander isn't asking for Ehlers salary + cap inflation. He is asking for $8M because he doesn't agree with the comparables or believe he is at the same level as Ehlers.

I believe there should be arbitration for all players exiting their ELC up until they reach UFA and have earned the right to demand. Nylander is a great player but has hardly proven himself to a point where he can be demanding $8M. That is just ludicrous. If he wanted $8M, he should've pulled his head out of his ass during the playoffs and played like an $8M player. Promising to do so this year and getting paid in advance is not the way things work. He was aware it was a contract year, he should've played the entire year like it was.

The bolded is not fact. It was speculated by Dreger who retracted it the next day.

 

[crump]

If Nylander signs just before the season starts, what do you think Babcock and/or Dubas will do?

1. Sit him out until he shows he's up to speed and in condition in practice?
2. Send him to the Marlies for a conditioning stint?
3. Put him on the 3rd or 4th line to ease his minutes?
4. Put him on the 3rd or 4th line to reward Ennis for playing with Matthews while they waited for him to sign?
5. Put him with Matthews right away?
6. If it's a bridge contract, put him on the 4th line and leave him the there?
7. Plan a parade?

 

[Kiwi]

60 point players don't make 7 mil per.

Nylander and Ehlers wanted long term contracts based on their potential, as they are very young. At the time of negotiating contracts, both had proven they can reach 60 points at a very young age. Ehlers was a rookie the year before his 60 point season for heavens sake.

Again, if Nylander got 80 points last season, would he be negotiating as a 60 point player, or an 80 point player? It's amusing watching you try to spin away from this argument.

Where the hell did 7M come from?

One player has 2 60 point seasons the other had 1, that's double the track record at a very young age

He's going to negotiate as an 80 point player with the cap at 79.5M just as Nylander's going to negotiate as a 60 point player with a 79.5M cap just as Ehlers negotiated as a 60 point player at a 75M cap

They can drive them up and squabble over a few percentage points but it is irrelevant because they won't see that money anyway because it will be lost to escrow.

Players should negotiate and accept values based on comparables to other players of the same generation.

Nylander isn't asking for Ehlers salary + cap inflation. He is asking for $8M because he doesn't agree with the comparables or believe he is at the same level as Ehlers.

I believe there should be arbitration for all players exiting their ELC up until they reach UFA and have earned the right to demand. Nylander is a great player but has hardly proven himself to a point where he can be demanding $8M. That is just ludicrous. If he wanted $8M, he should've pulled his head out of his ass during the playoffs and played like an $8M player. Promising to do so this year and getting paid in advance is not the way things work. He was aware it was a contract year, he should've played the entire year like it was.

The players job is to get more money if thats what he values, period and to argue anything else is simply insane, just like it's the teams job to get him at the lowest AAV possible

What's generation got to do with anything, if the cap climbs he should look for his salary to rise in accordance with that

Let's just leave Dreger and the 8mil out of this, nobody has any idea who's asking for what from what I understand

He's got no arb rights, that's why getting him in the low 6's is still possible, don't look at gift horse in the mouth

There were publicly available projections of 78-82 released within months of signing. If Ehlers agent was negotiating based on expectation of a flat cap he was a moron, plain and simple. He might not have been guessing 79.5, but he definitely wasn't assuming 75.

Yes, and he did neither of those things, hence status quo. The risk of progression/regression cuts both ways, so assuming that maintaining status quo = player value add is specious at best, especially when you consider that the team didn't give him 42 ****ing million dollars on the assumption that he would regress.

I noticed you said within months of signing, so after he put pen to paper then? Because if it's after that doesn't really matter

No Winnipeg took a calculated risk that we clearly weren't willing to make with Nylander
Or
Nylander isn't as concerned about security as Ehlers and potentially taking less money because of it

Either way it's helping Nylander's bargaining position and probably means he's getting more

 

[kb]

New

If Nylander signs just before the season starts, what do you think Babcock and/or Dubas will do?

1. Sit him out until he shows he's up to speed and in condition in practice?
2. Send him to the Marlies for a conditioning stint?
3. Put him on the 3rd or 4th line to ease his minutes?
4. Put him on the 3rd or 4th line to reward Ennis for playing with Matthews while they waited for him to sign?
5. Put him with Matthews right away?
6. If it's a bridge contract, put him on the 4th line and leave him the there?
7. Plan a parade?

5 and 7

 

[hotpaws]

The bolded is not fact. It was made up by Dreger who retracted it the next day.

yup , retracted by Dreger and his retraction gets mentioned almost every page but for some reason people continue to ignore it because they feel the need to shift the blame onto Willie

 

[Notsince67]

It's a projection on a salary cap that has only been rising because of the players escalating it and the players have seriously talked about slowing/stopping because of escrow concerns

Absolutely nobody projected that rise that I know of, nobody

Ehlers and Winnipeg had far less certainty of what he actually was at the time of signing, he could easily have only got 45 points this season, he also could have gone PPG, that's a risk the team and player were willing to take that we weren't

Nylander has 2 60 point seasons in a row i can safely say he should be paid as a 60 point player which is far more projectable than Ehlers was last season

 

[Kiwi]

Well of course, if his agent is as dumb as you think Ehlers' was than Mitch's FMV contract would be near identical to Nylander's... 2x 60 point seasons under a 79.5 million dollar cap, not allowed to project future events

It's not your money so calm down

If Marner wants to maximize his AAV he's going to wait until next off-season just like Nylander did so if the cap jumps or his points totals spike he's in line for more money because his agent doesn't really know what the Caps going to do just like Ehlers didn't

See how that works?

 

[Kiwi]

It was way less than usual however

 

[Peiskos]

I feel its high unlikely that Dubas is lowballing Nylander with something like 5.5 million for 6+ years. I firmly believe the offer Dubas has on the table is at the very minimum 6 to 6.5 million per for 6 years..comparable to Pastrnak and Ehlers.

The fact that Nylander doesn't think this is acceptable is troubling for a player who hasn't even hit 62 points in a season. Pastrnak has had a 70 and 80 point season and he accepted 6.6 million, Ehlers has had a 38, 64 and 60 point season and he accepted 6 million. Nylander as we all know has had back to back 61 point seasons.

All three players are 22. I don't understand what the hold up is, the comparables are right there in front of everyone to see including Willy, his stubborn agent Lewis Gross and his father Michael.

 

[crump]

snip .

All three players are 22. I don't understand what the hold up is, the comparables are right there in front of everyone to see including Willy, his stubborn agent Lewis Gross and his father Michael.

Bolded is the problem. It would be a good time for Wee Willy to have his belated teenage rebellion against his parents.

 

[kindalaidback]

I feel its high unlikely that Dubas is lowballing Nylander with something like 5.5 million for 6+ years. I firmly believe the offer Dubas has on the table is at the very minimum 6 to 6.5 million per for 6 years..comparable to Pastrnak and Ehlers.

The fact that Nylander doesn't think this is acceptable is troubling for a player who hasn't even hit 62 points in a season. Pastrnak has had a 70 and 80 point season and he accepted 6.6 million, Ehlers has had a 38, 64 and 60 point season and he accepted 6 million. Nylander as we all know has had back to back 61 point seasons.

All three players are 22. I don't understand what the hold up is, the comparables are right there in front of everyone to see including Willy, his stubborn agent Lewis Gross and his father Michael.

pastrnak had 26, 27 and 70 points when he signed his contract, not 80.