William Nylander

[yubbers]

Nylander is a better Phil Kessel. He's an ancillary piece. Not a leader.

Don't expect him to be and he's fine.

 

[ULF_55]

The thing is, they all have NMC's if I'm not mistaken, and Nylander seems like he really wants to win in Toronto more so than any of the others so the only way he'd even consider agreeing to waive, is if all the others are gone first, and it's obvious that we're tanking. Not sure Rielly would agree either.

Anyhow, I don't see them doing anything much. Marner will probably leave, the rest of the key players will stay and they'll take another run at it next season.

Nylander seems like the only one who really wants to be on the Leafs.
I think he got overpaid, but heck he was 2nd. in goals in the league this year. Yes, part of that was because he played 82 games. He usually plays all the games. He also lead the Leafs in goals and points this year playoffs on his new contract.

Tavares wanted to be in Toronto, but is stoic in his appreciation.

Opinion only:

One likes to play for Leafs because he never had to move away from home.
One was drafted and got the contracts he wanted, on the terms he wanted. He also left the door open to leave early.
One moved back to Toronto (home) after the first half of his career was over.

In the post-season, and with his absolute non-defensive game ... -2. Hugely different than +2, right?

 

[Ports]

Sucked in the Florida series.


Willie was the passenger.

He was but he wasn’t alone.

 

[GoonieFace]

Let's break some of this information down a bit here:

On the surface, round 2 of the playoffs has Willy, Matthews, Marner, Tavares, Knies, Domi looking like this:

	G	A	Pts	EV Pts	Shots	Hits	Blocks	Hits Taken	Takeaways	Giveaways	PK ToI
Nylander	3	3	6	5	19	3	3	9	1	5	0:04
Marner	1	4	5	4	8	17	11	14	1	7	14:12
Matthews	1	3	4	4	26	19	6	8	6	8	10:56
Tavares	2	0	2	1	23	13	7	11	1	9	0:05
Knies	2	2	4	4	15	19	4	7	1	6	11:47
Domi	2	3	5	4	11	6	1	5	2	5	0:00

Under the surface, then things get a bit more interesting.


Individually:

	ToI	Shots	Expected Goals	Scoring Chances	High Danger	Rebounds Created	Offensive Zone Starts	Defensive Zone Starts	O. Zone Faceoffs	D. Zone Faceoffs
Nylander	132:26	19	1.82	17	8	0	32	8	58	30
Marner	154:34	8	0.6	6	1	2	42	39	67	69
Matthews	143:34	26	3.33	26	14	7	40	37	67	69
Tavares	134:19	23	2.76	28	14	8	27	11	50	37
Knies	137:16	15	3.65	21	15	2	34	23	54	44
Domi	87:37	11	1.21	14	4	2	14	10	22	24

As a line:

	Shots For	Shots Against	Goals For	Goals Against	Expected Goals For	Expected Goals Against	Scoring Chances For	High Danger	Scoring Chances Against	High Danger
Nylander	78	82	7	7	10	6.61	83	42	74	25
Marner	67	58	7	9	9.55	5.66	75	40	79	23
Matthews	67	54	7	7	9.9	5.59	77	42	74	20
Tavares	77	83	6	9	10.42	6.36	75	41	70	27
Knies	63	50	7	10	9.11	6.54	72	37	79	24
Domi	39	42	5	2	4.2	3.82	32	13	42	17

What do these numbers show?

Well, they clearly illustrate a set of players whose job was to do nothing but generate offense.
It shows a different set of players whose job was to create offense, but also to stymie the offensive line of the opposition, and to kill penalties.

What it also shows, clearly, is that the set of players whose entire job was to generate offense, barely, if at all, outperformed the other set of players in that 1 duty they had.

As it pertains specifically to Nylander, these numbers paint a picture of a player:
1. Entirely offensive usage
2. Generally stayed in the perimeter with lots of shots and 0 rebounds created
3. Did not engage in physical play


That's purely from stats. The eye test showed that Nylander was very much engaged offensively, always looking for quick breaks, and generated quite a few breakaway chances.
Hmm, that seems to reinforce the idea gained from the stats.


Lastly, how did these players get matched up in the series?

Florida currently has 2 Selke finalists on that top line of theirs - Sasha Barkov and Sam Reinhart.

Let's say that the Leafs' top line faced off against those 2 players for 78 minutes each, while the 2nd line faced off against them for just over 32 minutes.

Sam Reinhart scored 50 goals last year. Barkov is a 90+ point player. They were neutralized by Matthews, Marner and Knies. Sure, they neutralized the Leafs' top line as well, and thus the biggest weapons for each team were essentially taken off the board.

And yet, the 2nd line for the Leafs, while facing drastically lesser opposition, did not fare well.

Looks like Marner was invisible, which he was

 

[hullsy47]

You’re just bringing it with bad take after bad take, huh …

Lol well.seems like everything in leafland is in code

 

[ULF_55]

Nylander is a better Phil Kessel. He's an ancillary piece. Not a leader.

Don't expect him to be and he's fine.

I'm curious how it will play out now that the dynamic dual are likely to be separated and the Leafs in room leadership changes.

I picture marner standing beside Matthews looking down on the other players. It just could be his upbringing, center of the universe. His screaming at the bench kind of supports that perception. All the while he's producing nothing. How many players went up to him and screamed at him for his junior league spin-o-rama pass?

If marner returns, I don't think things get better. The blame game will remain the same.

Knies might be the leader to step up, because other than Tavares there has not been anyone who has. Blaming others isn't leadership.

 

[yubbers]

I'm curious how it will play out now that the dynamic dual are likely to be separated and the Leafs in room leadership changes.

I picture marner standing beside Matthews looking down on the other players. It just could be his upbringing, center of the universe. His screaming at the bench kind of supports that perception. All the while he's producing nothing. How many players went up to him and screamed at him for his junior league spin-o-rama pass?

If marner returns, I don't think things get better. The blame game will remain the same.

Knies might be the leader to step up, because other than Tavares there has not been anyone who has. Blaming others isn't leadership.

Marner is 100% gone
I'd be fine with moving Matthews for the right return as well

I'm done with both of them.

 

[Stephen]

Nylander is a better Phil Kessel. He's an ancillary piece. Not a leader.

Don't expect him to be and he's fine.

Yeah exactly.

Plus you gotta respect him for just being a rink rat and loving the game enough to go to the WC.

 

[KAWAIlllI]

Yeah exactly.

Plus you gotta respect him for just being a rink rat and loving the game enough to go to the WC.

Somewhere, Marner is watching the Nylander Amazon Prime-episode for the 20th time (even though he said he wouldn’t watch it - what a teammate!), screaming into his pillow, calling his agent to start the Nylander smear-talk, calling Kypreos and Dreger to hike up his salary and to call Nylander out, while simultaneously messaging Matthews asking what to do/say next

 

[Caesium]

Next season should be fun. Maybe the fans here will start running Willy out of town when they get tired of their $11.5M player standing at the red line while the opposition has the puck.

 

[KAWAIlllI]

Next season should be fun. Maybe the fans here will start running Willy out of town when they get tired of their $11.5M player standing at the red line while the opposition has the puck.

Haven’t you tried that for years now though? Still remember one season when they had a huge banner outside the arena, highlighting some players. Tavares was there. Marner was. Matthews was. Holl (?!) was. Nylander wasn’t

 

[scotian1]

So Nylander is off to play with the Swedish team. He should be well rested as he took the last couple of games off vs Florida.

 

[Eye of Ra]

 

[Janvonpobben]

Nylander will win gold for sweden.

 

[ULF_55]

So Nylander is off to play with the Swedish team. He should be well rested as he took the last couple of games off vs Florida.

Yeah, well the leaders stepped forward and said "We got this!"

They proceeded to ...

 

[ULF_55]

Let's break some of this information down a bit here:

On the surface, round 2 of the playoffs has Willy, Matthews, Marner, Tavares, Knies, Domi looking like this:

	G	A	Pts	EV Pts	Shots	Hits	Blocks	Hits Taken	Takeaways	Giveaways	PK ToI
Nylander	3	3	6	5	19	3	3	9	1	5	0:04
Marner	1	4	5	4	8	17	11	14	1	7	14:12
Matthews	1	3	4	4	26	19	6	8	6	8	10:56
Tavares	2	0	2	1	23	13	7	11	1	9	0:05
Knies	2	2	4	4	15	19	4	7	1	6	11:47
Domi	2	3	5	4	11	6	1	5	2	5	0:00

Under the surface, then things get a bit more interesting.


Individually:

	ToI	Shots	Expected Goals	Scoring Chances	High Danger	Rebounds Created	Offensive Zone Starts	Defensive Zone Starts	O. Zone Faceoffs	D. Zone Faceoffs
Nylander	132:26	19	1.82	17	8	0	32	8	58	30
Marner	154:34	8	0.6	6	1	2	42	39	67	69
Matthews	143:34	26	3.33	26	14	7	40	37	67	69
Tavares	134:19	23	2.76	28	14	8	27	11	50	37
Knies	137:16	15	3.65	21	15	2	34	23	54	44
Domi	87:37	11	1.21	14	4	2	14	10	22	24

As a line:

	Shots For	Shots Against	Goals For	Goals Against	Expected Goals For	Expected Goals Against	Scoring Chances For	High Danger	Scoring Chances Against	High Danger
Nylander	78	82	7	7	10	6.61	83	42	74	25
Marner	67	58	7	9	9.55	5.66	75	40	79	23
Matthews	67	54	7	7	9.9	5.59	77	42	74	20
Tavares	77	83	6	9	10.42	6.36	75	41	70	27
Knies	63	50	7	10	9.11	6.54	72	37	79	24
Domi	39	42	5	2	4.2	3.82	32	13	42	17

What do these numbers show?

Well, they clearly illustrate a set of players whose job was to do nothing but generate offense.
It shows a different set of players whose job was to create offense, but also to stymie the offensive line of the opposition, and to kill penalties.

What it also shows, clearly, is that the set of players whose entire job was to generate offense, barely, if at all, outperformed the other set of players in that 1 duty they had.

As it pertains specifically to Nylander, these numbers paint a picture of a player:
1. Entirely offensive usage
2. Generally stayed in the perimeter with lots of shots and 0 rebounds created
3. Did not engage in physical play


That's purely from stats. The eye test showed that Nylander was very much engaged offensively, always looking for quick breaks, and generated quite a few breakaway chances.
Hmm, that seems to reinforce the idea gained from the stats.


Lastly, how did these players get matched up in the series?

Florida currently has 2 Selke finalists on that top line of theirs - Sasha Barkov and Sam Reinhart.

Let's say that the Leafs' top line faced off against those 2 players for 78 minutes each, while the 2nd line faced off against them for just over 32 minutes.

Sam Reinhart scored 50 goals last year. Barkov is a 90+ point player. They were neutralized by Matthews, Marner and Knies. Sure, they neutralized the Leafs' top line as well, and thus the biggest weapons for each team were essentially taken off the board.

And yet, the 2nd line for the Leafs, while facing drastically lesser opposition, did not fare well.

I have been told by several people that Maurice switched up his coverage moving his top defensive line against Tavares line.

So once Tavares line was shutdown it was up to the Matthews line to carry the load. They scored 1 goal the last 4 games?

So the 1st. line for the Leafs, while facing drastically lesser opposition the last 4 games, did not fare well?

 

[Budz]

For me:

-I would ask Willy and Rielly about waiving. Target a 2C.
-Not resigning Marner for anything
-I would consider JT as a 3C or 2 LW - at 5.5-6 million.

Build depth and playoff type players.
Allow Bérubé to have heavy input.

 

[ITM]

For me:

-I would ask Willy and Rielly about waiving. Target a 2C.
-Not resigning Marner for anything
-I would consider JT as a 3C or 2 LW - at 5.5-6 million.

Build depth and playoff type players.
Allow Bérubé to have heavy input.

So you'd build playoff depth by starting with asking the best point producer over the last five seasons to waive?

 

[ULF_55]

For me:

-I would ask Willy and Rielly about waiving. Target a 2C.
-Not resigning Marner for anything
-I would consider JT as a 3C or 2 LW - at 5.5-6 million.

Build depth and playoff type players.
Allow Bérubé to have heavy input.

I'd sell the damaged properties and recoup as much as possible and invest in the future.

 

[Budz]

So you'd build playoff depth by starting with asking the best point producer over the last five seasons to waive?

Yes, I don’t negate Willy’s immense talent. I just would want to build my team differently.

Look at Florida’s scoring in the playoffs.

I will also say - I think the Leafs are closer than most fans thinks. Also, points are overrated by fans.

 

[ITM]

Yes, I don’t negate Willy’s immense talent. I just would want to build my team differently.

Look at Florida’s scoring in the playoffs.

I will also say - I think the Leafs are closer than most fans thinks. Also, points are overrated by fans.

I think they are as well.

 

[ULF_55]

Yes, I don’t negate Willy’s immense talent. I just would want to build my team differently.

Look at Florida’s scoring in the playoffs.

I will also say - I think the Leafs are closer than most fans thinks. Also, points are overrated by fans.

Team points, or player points?

I support Belak points.

One billion passes without a goal are just passes.
A goal without a pass is still a goal.

 

[pcruz]

I have been told by several people that Maurice switched up his coverage moving his top defensive line against Tavares line.

So once Tavares line was shutdown it was up to the Matthews line to carry the load. They scored 1 goal the last 4 games?

So the 1st. line for the Leafs, while facing drastically lesser opposition the last 4 games, did not fare well?

This is easy to check for ourselves with actual facts, instead of conjecture.

Let's see exactly who faced how many minutes against that top line of Barkov and Reinhart, over the course of the series.



For Barkov:

	Game 1	Game 2	Game 3	Game 4	Game 5	Game 6	Game 7	Total
Matthews	13:34	17:04	9:19	5:42	9:01	11:40	11:13	77:37
Marner	14:28	17:13	9:48	6:28	9:06	13:22	11:22	81:48
Knies	10:46	16:31	8:46	5:46	8:07	6:51	9:40	66:28
Tavares	5:13	5:10	10:55	8:37	3:16	6:46	2:58	42:58
Nylander	3:40	4:15	10:16	8:30	4:15	6:04	2:46	39:49

For Reinhart:

	Game 1	Game 2	Game 3	Game 4	Game 5	Game 6	Game 7	Total
Matthews	13:13	16:40	9:16	6:01	9:07	11:58	11:07	77:22
Marner	14:03	16:37	9:39	7:00	9:22	13:39	11:21	81:43
Knies	10:22	17:01	9:45	5:49	8:16	6:43	9:31	67:28
Tavares	6:07	5:37	11:48	7:49	3:31	7:28	2:58	45:22
Nylander	4:31	4:40	10:25	7:18	4:33	6:57	3:04	41:30

See how problematic it is to just straight up believe everything one is told, without so much as a cursory glance ourselves as to the veracity of the "information".


Seems to me, that the more Matthews, Marner and Knies were matched up against Barkov and Reinhart, the better the chances for the Leafs.

 

[ULF_55]

This is easy to check for ourselves with actual facts, instead of conjecture.

Let's see exactly who faced how many minutes against that top line of Barkov and Reinhart, over the course of the series.



For Barkov:

	Game 1	Game 2	Game 3	Game 4	Game 5	Game 6	Game 7	Total
Matthews	13:34	17:04	9:19	5:42	9:01	11:40	11:13	77:37
Marner	14:28	17:13	9:48	6:28	9:06	13:22	11:22	81:48
Knies	10:46	16:31	8:46	5:46	8:07	6:51	9:40	66:28
Tavares	5:13	5:10	10:55	8:37	3:16	6:46	2:58	42:58
Nylander	3:40	4:15	10:16	8:30	4:15	6:04	2:46	39:49

For Reinhart:

	Game 1	Game 2	Game 3	Game 4	Game 5	Game 6	Game 7	Total
Matthews	13:13	16:40	9:16	6:01	9:07	11:58	11:07	77:22
Marner	14:03	16:37	9:39	7:00	9:22	13:39	11:21	81:43
Knies	10:22	17:01	9:45	5:49	8:16	6:43	9:31	67:28
Tavares	6:07	5:37	11:48	7:49	3:31	7:28	2:58	45:22
Nylander	4:31	4:40	10:25	7:18	4:33	6:57	3:04	41:30

See how problematic it is to just straight up believe everything one is told, without so much as a cursory glance ourselves as to the veracity of the "information".


Seems to me, that the more Matthews, Marner and Knies were matched up against Barkov and Reinhart, the better the chances for the Leafs.

Thanks, how much of this time is even strength?

So Berube had last change in Toronto and put Matthews out against Barkov?

Game 3 and 4, Maurice had last change and had Barkov against Tavares and Nylander.

Games 5 - 7 Barkov against Matthews, but less minutes, 9, 12, 11, rather than 13.5 and 17. But Leafs by that time were just hanging on.

So Maurice did change it up for games 3 and 4, Leafs lost both.

And of course, Matthews and marner outscored Tavaes and Nylander by 1 goal the last 4 games.

 

[pcruz]

Thanks, how much of this time is even strength?

So Berube had last change in Toronto and put Matthews out against Barkov?

Game 3 and 4, Maurice had last change and had Barkov against Tavares and Nylander.

Games 5 - 7 Barkov against Matthews, but less minutes, 9, 12, 11, rather than 13.5 and 17. But Leafs by that time were just hanging on.

So Maurice did change it up for games 3 and 4, Leafs lost both.

And of course, Matthews and marner outscored Tavaes and Nylander by 1 goal the last 4 games.

One could do a more detailed break-down game 3 onwards.


Game 3:

There is absolutely no question that Toronto should have won that game. Woll was abysmal in the game and gave up 2 really bad goals, an ok goal, and then the OT goal came from that 2nd line getting hemmed in so badly that Nylander literally stood still for lengths of time. And it wasn't a great goal to allow either.

Anyway, Barkov, at Even Strength, vs Toronto in Game 3:

	ToI	Shots For	Shots Against	Scoring Chances For	Scoring Chances Against	xG For	xG Against	High Danger Chances	High Danger Against	Goals For	Goals Against
Matthews	5:55	4	3	5	6	.82	.51	2	3	1	1
Marner	6:18	1	3	1	6	.12	.51	0	3	1	1
Knies	6:01	1	3	1	6	.12	.51	0	3	1	1
Tavares	10:10	7	2	4	0	.39	.05	1	0	0	0
Nylander	9:31	10	2	8	0	1.1	.05	3	0	0	0

That 2nd line of the Leafs got absolutely decimated all night long, and was very lucky that Barkov didn't light them up.




Game 4:

Obviously, nobody did well in that game, except Woll. He was phenomenal. I mean, Bob was very good, if relatively untested.

Anyway, Barkov at Even Strength, vs Toronto in Game 4:

	ToI	Shots For	Shots Against	Scoring Chances For	Scoring Chances Against	xG For	xG Against	High Danger For	High Danger Against	Goals	Goals Against
Matthews	2:27	1	1	2	0	.11	.01	1	0	0	0
Marner	2:58	1	1	2	0	.11	.01	1	0	0	0
Knies	2:28	1	1	2	0	.11	.01	1	0	0	0
Tavares	7:43	6	4	5	2	.32	.18	1	2	0	0
Nylander	7:13	5	3	5	2	.3	.18	1	2	0	0

Interestingly, Matthews, Marner and Knies played against the line that absolutely demolished our 2nd line the rest of the series (at Even Strength):
Lundell, Luostarinen, and Marchand

This is how our first line (Matthews specifically, but a fair representation of the other 2 as well) fared against that 3rd line of Florida, in Game 4.

	ToI	Shots	Shots Againt	Scoring Chances For	Scoring Chances Against	xG For	xG Against	High Danger For	High Danger Against
Marchand	9:25	3	1	8	3	.92	.06	5	1
Lundell	10:16	4	2	8	4	.93	.32	5	2
Luostarinen	10:22	4	2	8	4	.93	.32	5	2