Player Discussion William Nylander

[thewave]

My dog couldn't wait to get on the ice with me every winter and never once injured himself playing hockey with me. Maybe your dogs aren't athletic enough. He was a 105lb German Shepherd and was incredibly agile out there.

Sounds like you've had horrible luck.

Could be, or age related and breed. I am not an expert so for all I know Shepherd and Husky are not prone to it because obviously both are exposed to icy conditions.

One was a Bulldog and the other a American Staff so who knows. I asked AI and...

Icy surfaces can be slippery, making it difficult for dogs to maintain their footing, which increases the risk of slips, falls, and injuries. Additionally, walking on ice can irritate or burn a dog’s paw pads, especially if the ice is mixed with salt or other chemicals.

Seems the dangers are with splaying the hind legs and nerve damage etc

 

[hamzarocks]

He hit 98 last year, only one point less than Marner's best, while playing with second liners instead of first liners (including the best goal scorer in the league).

If Willy isn't worth 11.5 (he isn't, more like 10) then what is Mitch worth?

Nylander played a solid stretch of games last year with Matthews.

He gets the most TOI at EVS and PP per game for the leafs.

If he was at 98 pts again (pace wise at this pt) there would be no need for this discussion.

His issue is he has underperformed this season with 50 pts in 50 games (82 pt pace) while at 11.5M

Marner has 68 in 50, he needs 30 in 32 to beat the nylandee contract year career high.

Internal capstruture wise Marner if retained will 100% be above Nylander.

He has longer track record of being a higher point producer and his peak seasons are more consistent and higher than Nylander's

Ideally we would have dealt Marner this summer instead of doublung down and having WN and MM making 25M combined

 

[ZEBROA]

Nylander played a solid stretch of games last year with Matthews.

He gets the most TOI at EVS and PP per game for the leafs.

If he was at 98 pts again (pace wise at this pt) there would be no need for this discussion.

His issue is he has underperformed this season with 50 pts in 50 games (82 pt pace) while at 11.5M

Marner has 68 in 50, he needs 30 in 32 to beat the nylandee contract year career high.

Internal capstruture wise Marner if retained will 100% be above Nylander.

He has longer track record of being a higher point producer and his peak seasons are more consistent and higher than Nylander's

Ideally we would have dealt Marner this summer instead of doublung down and having WN and MM making 25M combined

How many games has Marner played with Matthews vice versa. And how many games has Nylander played with any of them. It should help playing with the best players. Not only that , a playmaker with a sniper.

Nylander should do better as is , and would do better playing with Marner. They cant have been playing many games on the same line.

Also the season aint over yet.

 

[mclaren55]

Could be, or age related and breed. I am not an expert so for all I know Shepherd and Husky are not prone to it because obviously both are exposed to icy conditions.

One was a Bulldog and the other a American Staff so who knows. I asked AI and...

Icy surfaces can be slippery, making it difficult for dogs to maintain their footing, which increases the risk of slips, falls, and injuries. Additionally, walking on ice can irritate or burn a dog’s paw pads, especially if the ice is mixed with salt or other chemicals.

Seems the dangers are with splaying the hind legs and nerve damage etc

Well the rink in my backyard wasn't slippery, usually had a decent coat of snow on it. That's probably the key difference, not having a zamboni. Sorry to hear about your dogs luck though, that sucks.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Nylander played a solid stretch of games last year with Matthews.

He gets the most TOI at EVS and PP per game for the leafs.

If he was at 98 pts again (pace wise at this pt) there would be no need for this discussion.

His issue is he has underperformed this season with 50 pts in 50 games (82 pt pace) while at 11.5M

Marner has 68 in 50, he needs 30 in 32 to beat the nylandee contract year career high.

Internal capstruture wise Marner if retained will 100% be above Nylander.

He has longer track record of being a higher point producer and his peak seasons are more consistent and higher than Nylander's

Ideally we would have dealt Marner this summer instead of doublung down and having WN and MM making 25M combined

You avoided answering my question, but you think Marner will get $13.5M?

So the fact that he is producing more goals but fewer assists while playing with on average worse linemates this year than previously (mainly due to injuries) isn't relevant, but 12 seconds more ice time per game is?

You seem to be straying farther and farther from logic.

 

[hamzarocks]

You avoided answering my question, but you think Marner will get $13.5M?

So the fact that he is producing more goals but fewer assists while playing with on average worse linemates this year than previously (mainly due to injuries) isn't relevant, but 12 seconds more ice time per game is?

You seem to be straying farther and farther from logic.

Nylander is playing ~20 mins a game with good linemates for the most part and good PP linemates

His production has plumetted.

Marner will get 13.5M b/c he has been far more consistent than nylander.

He doesnt have 80, 87 and pacing for 82 pt seasons in 3 of his last 4 years.

His last 4 years have been

110 pts, 101 pts, 101 pts and 112 pts

Nylander avg over 4 seasons = 87 pt player at 11.5M

Marner avg over 4 seasons = 106 pt player.

So on a purely internal based system marner is worth 13 to 13.5M

On a team with proper management

Nylander at 9-9.5M

Marner at 11-11.5M.

Marners productive advantage over nylander will create some gap in AAV, so if nylander is FMV at 11.5 then what is Marner's FMV?

 

[GoonieFace]

Nylander is playing ~20 mins a game with good linemates for the most part and good PP linemates

His production has plumetted.

Marner will get 13.5M b/c he has been far more consistent than nylander.

He doesnt have 80, 87 and pacing for 82 pt seasons in 3 of his last 4 years.

His last 4 years have been

110 pts, 101 pts, 101 pts and 112 pts

Nylander avg over 4 seasons = 87 pt player at 11.5M

Marner avg over 4 seasons = 106 pt player.

So on a purely internal based system marner is worth 13 to 13.5M

On a team with proper management

Nylander at 9-9.5M

Marner at 11-11.5M.

Marners productive advantage over nylander will create some gap in AAV, so if nylander is FMV at 11.5 then what is Marner's FMV?

Marner averages 106pts/season over the past 4 seasons, yet has never got 100 points in a season. That’s something alright

 

[Gary Nylund]

Marner averages 106pts/season over the past 4 seasons, yet has never got 100 points in a season. That’s something alright

They don't call him Magic Mitch for nothing.

Nylander avg over 4 seasons = 87 pt player at 11.5M

Marner avg over 4 seasons = 106 pt player.

Do playoffs matter at all in your world?

 

[BraveCanadian]

Marner averages 106pts/season over the past 4 seasons, yet has never got 100 points in a season. That’s something alright

And yet the trolling does nothing to change the math or the reality in the comparison.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Nylander is playing ~20 mins a game with good linemates for the most part and good PP linemates

His production has plumetted.

Marner will get 13.5M b/c he has been far more consistent than nylander.

He doesnt have 80, 87 and pacing for 82 pt seasons in 3 of his last 4 years.

His last 4 years have been

110 pts, 101 pts, 101 pts and 112 pts

Nylander avg over 4 seasons = 87 pt player at 11.5M

Marner avg over 4 seasons = 106 pt player.

So on a purely internal based system marner is worth 13 to 13.5M

On a team with proper management

Nylander at 9-9.5M

Marner at 11-11.5M.

Marners productive advantage over nylander will create some gap in AAV, so if nylander is FMV at 11.5 then what is Marner's FMV?

If you think he's been playing with comparable (or even good) "linemates for the most part", I'm not sure which games you've been watching.

Willy's last 3 years: 80, 87, 98.
Mitch's last 3 years:97, 99, 85.

You can pretend all you want that Marner's slight edge in actual production isn't affected by their respective linemates, but you're really not fooling anyone.

If Willy is worth 9-9.5 then you could argue that Mitch is worth 9.5-10.

 

[ToneDog]

Marner averages 106pts/season over the past 4 seasons, yet has never got 100 points in a season. That’s something alright

I believe he also leads the league in expected Selkes. Give him the max before he decides he hates it here and decides to leave. The team may never score another goal without his playmaking.

 

[thewave]

If you think he's been playing with comparable (or even good) "linemates for the most part", I'm not sure which games you've been watching.

Willy's last 3 years: 80, 87, 98.
Mitch's last 3 years:97, 99, 85.

You can pretend all you want that Marner's slight edge in actual production isn't affected by their respective linemates, but you're really not fooling anyone.

If Willy is worth 9-9.5 then you could argue that Mitch is worth 9.5-10.

Would you do 11.5mx8 for MM with only 3 years NMC

 

[hamzarocks]

They don't call him Magic Mitch for nothing.


Do playoffs matter at all in your world?

Ofcoursw they do, if Marner was a good playoff player he'd actually be worth 13.5M

Since hes not, he is on DO NOT sign list

Nylander is a similar level playoff player but signifcantly worse regukar season player. We should have walked away from him as well (dealt at 2023 draft to kick off a major retool)

Sadly we overpaid 1 badly, and will overpay the other as well most likely

If you think he's been playing with comparable (or even good) "linemates for the most part", I'm not sure which games you've been watching.

Willy's last 3 years: 80, 87, 98.
Mitch's last 3 years:97, 99, 85.

You can pretend all you want that Marner's slight edge in actual production isn't affected by their respective linemates, but you're really not fooling anyone.

If Willy is worth 9-9.5 then you could argue that Mitch is worth 9.5-10.

Maybe post games played lol if you want to show a fair comparison

Nylander fanboys are almost as delusional as the marner fanboy's squad in his thread.

Neither are guys we should be paying such crazy money to.

The leafs team is managed and built ass backwards with failure being rewarded by high monetary value.

 

[thewave]

Ofcoursw they do, if Marner was a good playoff player he'd actually be worth 13.5M

Since hes not, he is on DO NOT sign list

Nylander is a similar level playoff player but signifcantly worse regukar season player. We should have walked away from him as well (dealt at 2023 draft to kick off a major retool)

Sadly we overpaid 1 badly, and will overpay the other as well most likely

We overpaid WN 1.5m and my fear is MM will be overpaid 2.5m and JT will get some overpay too. That right there is enough money in overpays to sprinkle a little extra on and get a Necas or pay Knies.

It all adds up

 

[notDatsyuk]

Would you do 11.5mx8 for MM with only 3 years NMC

My first thought was "first 3 or last 3 NMC?"

If he shows better in the upcoming playoffs, yes.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Maybe post games played lol if you want to show a fair comparison

Nylander fanboys are almost as delusional as the marner fanboy's squad in his thread.

Neither are guys we should be paying such crazy money to.

The leafs team is managed and built ass backwards with failure being rewarded by high monetary value.

That's every single regular season game each has been able to play in the last three seassons - the only fair comparison.

I do agree with the rest.

 

[hamzarocks]

That's every single regular season game each has been able to play in the last three seassons - the only fair comparison.

I do agree with the rest.

The "able to play" part of your sentences is there to make the comparison closer than it really was

281 in 221

Vs

265 in 245

Is a sizable gap over three years. 104 pts per 82 vs 89 pts per 82.

If we are arguing hypothecial worth of WN and MM than that gap in production is a favorable point for him to make more than WN

How much more, Im not sure

We overpaid WN 1.5m and my fear is MM will be overpaid 2.5m and JT will get some overpay too. That right there is enough money in overpays to sprinkle a little extra on and get a Necas or pay Knies.

It all adds up

So we should have sold WN but didnt

We should be selling MM but wont

Tavares who caree, his overpay period during his 7 years of this deal f***ed us already, and his next contr!ct wont matter if 16, 88 and 34 produce not enough to justify the huge AAVs.

Leafs are a team managed backwards. Regressive management/ownership.

I cant imagine how we can thinj guys who werent good enough in early to mid 20s at lower AAVs will be able to win us a cup at 13.25M, 11.5M and whatever marner gets if extendee

 

[LeafEgo]

Is a sizable gap over three years. 104 pts per 82 vs 89 pts per 82.

Putting availability aside, over those three years Mitch got on average 12% more ice time, which would bring Willy to 100 pts (against 104 pts).

Then factor in goals vs assists (the game winning kind), quality of linemates, and post season play. Also defensive play, for as far as that takes a winger.

 

[hamzarocks]

Putting availability aside, over those three years Mitch got on average 12% more ice time, which would bring Willy to 100 pts (against 104 pts).

Then factor in goals vs assists (the game winning kind), quality of linemates, and post season play. Also defensive play, for as far as that takes a winger.

1. Marner is a significantly better defensive player than Nylander - Not that defense matters for me for reg season wingers

2. How much of marners TOI was PK? Nylander didnt PK much until last year while Marner plays heavy PK minutes

3. Post season play isnt relevant to the discussion but post season play is pretty even ocer last 3 years.

WN at 9.5M

MM at 11M

Those were fair value deals based on external comparables and what both had accomplished as leafs over their careers. Marner has been consistently the better player the gap at 1-1.5M is fair just WN at 11.5M means MM needs to be overpaid way too much to fit in and compete

 

[notDatsyuk]

The "able to play" part of your sentences is there to make the comparison closer than it really was

281 in 221

Vs

265 in 245

Is a sizable gap over three years. 104 pts per 82 vs 89 pts per 82.

If we are arguing hypothecial worth of WN and MM than that gap in production is a favorable point for him to make more than WN

How much more, Im not sure

So you think the ability to stay healthy is a handicap? 16 points in three seasons is "sizeable"?

If we are arguing real worth instead of hypothetical then the points are similar but the goals are in favour of Willy.

How much more, I'm not sure.

 

[hamzarocks]

So you think the ability to stay healthy is a handicap? 16 points in three seasons is "sizeable"?

If we are arguing real worth instead of hypothetical then the points are similar but the goals are in favour of Willy.

How much more, I'm not sure.

Alright Im done with this thread.

PUtting it on ignore so I dont spaz out anymore and let you guys discuss Nylander.

Will check back in around end of season and see how the opinion is for his play

 

[LeafEgo]

1. Marner is a significantly better defensive player than Nylander - Not that defense matters for me for reg season wingers

2. How much of marners TOI was PK? Nylander didnt PK much until last year while Marner plays heavy PK minutes

3. Post season play isnt relevant to the discussion but post season play is pretty even ocer last 3 years.

WN at 9.5M

MM at 11M

Those were fair value deals based on external comparables and what both had accomplished as leafs over their careers. Marner has been consistently the better player the gap at 1-1.5M is fair just WN at 11.5M means MM needs to be overpaid way too much to fit in and compete

We could nickel and dime it for days, there's no precise answer. I'll just say that they are very comparable players and you can see that on all the RW rankings going into the season - Willy typically one slot higher.

I prefer Willy as I believe he is a more valuable winger when it comes to winning important games. Others will have a different opinion and that's fine, but they're the same tier - Jfresh calls it 'tier-3 franchise winger'. Denigrating one over the other with enthusiasm is misguided imo.

 

[ULF_55]

Best Leafs tonight.

 

[Aashir]

Best Leafs tonight.

doesn't really say much when we scored 1 goal

 

[ULF_55]

doesn't really say much when we scored 1 goal

Yeah, especially when it was scored by Nylander and two 3rd. liners (being generous).