In his last negotiation, Nylander made painfully sure to set a new "bar" / "high water mark" for contracts.
Obviously not to the extent that Marner did a year later, but when you took his comparables at the time, he probably should have been paid closer to $6.5m on a 6 year deal, not $7m on a 5.5 year deal with no deduction for missing half the season.
The real question is -- after 4 years of first round playoff exits, does Nylander feel the need to set another high-water mark? does he want to be paid "fairly"? or is he prepared to take a bit of a discount to try and win?
I don't believe the latter is realistic.
The fact that the cap is likely to go up, by an undetermined yet substantial amount, is only going to make things more difficult for Dubas. As Nylander is likely to be fearful that he will regret not waiting to see exactly what the cap is for 24-25.
That being said, if we use today's dollars, on a "fair value" perspective. I imagine that Kaprizov, Brayden Point, Johnny Gaudreau and Filip Forsberg will be comparables. Heck, he'll probably bring up Jonathan Huberdeau calling out the fact that his deal begins a year later, and he's younger. Timo Meier's eventual deal will help set the bar as well.
Personally, I don't see it being any less than $9.5m with the knowledge of the cap going up. It wouldn't at all surprise me to see him push to $10m.