Speculation: Will the Boston Bruins Go Big In Free Agency???

[BMC]

If they're getting a 1C it's going to have to come via trade. There is no true 1C available in the UFA market.

Don't have the assets to outbid for a 1C .

Get wingers who can score, like Guntzel add/or Rienhart.

I would change that to wingers that can score on their own. If they need someone to feed them pucks then the Bruins should pass.

 

[Kalus]

It wasn’t doubts. It was cap trouble. Choosing the one year kept the AAV down as much as they could.

Of course it was doubts. The point is the team could have been bold and taken a risk and locked him in for a long term contract under fair market value. The downside risk is that he wasn’t as good as they projected and they ended up overpaying in cap hit and/or term. The upside is that he is as good or better than they projected and they lock him in for a lower cap hit than full market value.

They chose not to take the risk, play the safe side, and now they have to pay full market value over a long term contract.

Risk/reward and all that.

 

[MarchysNoseKnows]

Of course it was doubts. The point is the team could have been bold and taken a risk and locked him in for a long term contract under fair market value. The downside risk is that he wasn’t as good as they projected and they ended up overpaying in cap hit and/or term. The upside is that he is as good or better than they projected and they lock him in for a lower cap hit than full market value.

They chose not to take the risk, play the safe side, and now they have to pay full market value over a long term contract.

Risk/reward and all that.

They literally didn’t have the cap room to sign him long term.

 

[NDiesel]

Probably. A good comp is Rask who signed his deal when he was about Swayman’s age and stature for 10.89% of the cap. With next year’s cap at $88M, that would be about $9.5M.

Bruins had enough doubts to bring him to arb and then to choose the one year option for his award. They took a conservative approach and now they are going to likely have to pay full market value as a result. That’s just how these things work.

Rask also had a cup run under his belt when he signed, Swayman has won a series. Over 8.5 mil for him seems steep, and I love the guy and what he brings.

 

[Bruinswillwin77]

Rask also had a cup run under his belt when he signed, Swayman hasn't won a series. Over 8.5 mil for him seems steep, and I love the guy and what he brings.

You forgot the Toronto series.

 

[Aussie Bruin]

His Top 3 targets should be in no particular order - Guentzel, Stamkos, and Marchessault. His primary focus if he's going shopping should be to get one of these 3 players. Primary scorers.

Instead, he's going to go to the 2nd tier where the secondary scorers and complimentary players are and pay Elias Lindholm a boatload of money and term to do the job Charlie Coyle is already doing adequately.

You're right, as usual. The market for top centers is not good. So even though our greatest need is a 1C, instead of forcing it and overpaying for someone mediocre, I'd look at a more moderate add in the middle (I wonder how much Stephenson wants?) and spend more on a genuine scoring winger like Guentzel. Get that right and it could help a lot.

Then see how it goes and if they're on track for a playoff run, you can look to trade for another pivot at the deadline if needed.

 

[UncleRico]

Rask also had a cup run under his belt when he signed, Swayman hasn't won a series. Over 8.5 mil for him seems steep, and I love the guy and what he brings.

He nearly single handedly won the bruins the Toronto series this year. He played well enough to make it much further this postseason as well.

Unfortunately the rest of the team wasn’t up to the task.

 

[BruinDust]

You're right, as usual. The market for top centers is not good. So even though our greatest need is a 1C, instead of forcing it and overpaying for someone mediocre, I'd look at a more moderate add in the middle (I wonder how much Stephenson wants?) and spend more on a genuine scoring winger like Guentzel. Get that right and it could help a lot.

Then see how it goes and if they're on track for a playoff run, you can look to trade for another pivot at the deadline if needed.

I like that Stephenson brings more of what they don't have, speed up front. He'll come a bit cheaper with likely less term I think than suspected main target Lindholm who frankly is more of what they already have. And if someone comes along in the C position externally or internally, I'd wager Stephenson wouldn't have much trouble shifting to the wing where he could use his speed more. We know that Lindholm on RW in his career is a mixed bag and really a waste of his skillset.

More speed, more flexibility, more cap space to add a Guentzel or another primary scorer. I think it's a no-brainer personally if given the choice between Stephenson and Lindholm.

I said this in another post but watch how much Edmonton's speed pushes the Florida D back off the blueline and allow cleaner more consistent zone entries. Bruins need more of that speed up front that way the opposing D can't cheat and hold that blueline all the time.

 

[NDiesel]

He nearly single handedly won the bruins the Toronto series this year. He played well enough to make it much further this postseason as well.

Unfortunately the rest of the team wasn’t up to the task.

Sorry don't know why I blanked on him winning this year lol

You forgot the Toronto series.

Yep you're right, my bad

 

[Aussie Bruin]

I like that Stephenson brings more of what they don't have, speed up front. He'll come a bit cheaper with likely less term I think than suspected main target Lindholm who frankly is more of what they already have. And if someone comes along in the C position externally or internally, I'd wager Stephenson wouldn't have much trouble shifting to the wing where he could use his speed more. We know that Lindholm on RW in his career is a mixed bag and really a waste of his skillset.

More speed, more flexibility, more cap space to add a Guentzel or another primary scorer. I think it's a no-brainer personally if given the choice between Stephenson and Lindholm.

I said this in another post but watch how much Edmonton's speed pushes the Florida D back off the blueline and allow cleaner more consistent zone entries. Bruins need more of that speed up front that way the opposing D can't cheat and hold that blueline all the time.

Yeah I lean the same way. Seems like Lindholm is looking to get paid, and good luck to him on that, but not by Boston thanks. Stephenson is of much more interest to me. If he's willing to deal on fair terms, I think he'd be a very good fit for us.

 

[Mr. Make-Believe]

Yeah I lean the same way. Seems like Lindholm is looking to get paid, and good luck to him on that, but not by Boston thanks. Stephenson is of much more interest to me. If he's willing to deal on fair terms, I think he'd be a very good fit for us.

There aren't many of us, Aussie. But I agree 100%

 

[BruinDust]

Yeah I lean the same way. Seems like Lindholm is looking to get paid, and good luck to him on that, but not by Boston thanks. Stephenson is of much more interest to me. If he's willing to deal on fair terms, I think he'd be a very good fit for us.

I don't blame Lindholm for trying to still leverage that huge year he had in Calgary, but if I'm Sweeney I look at that season as a complete outlier and disregard it for the most part.

It's not even the AAV that bothers me so much about Lindholm, but giving him 7 years (which I assume he's shooting for) is a bridge to far for me.

 

[Kalus]

I don't blame Lindholm for trying to still leverage that huge year he had in Calgary, but if I'm Sweeney I look at that season as a complete outlier and disregard it for the most part.

It's not even the AAV that bothers me so much about Lindholm, but giving him 7 years (which I assume he's shooting for) is a bridge to far for me.

Agreed. In coming up with an offer, they really need to throw out that outlier year. But the bigger issue is his age. He’ll be 30 next season. Statistically, most of that next contract will see declining performance each year. If he won’t agree to a deal that bakes that into the cap hit, then I really don’t want my team to be the one saddled with that contact. We’ve seen this team have to give up too much in dealing away their bad contracts over Sweeney’s run.

 

[BruinDust]

Agreed. In coming up with an offer, they really need to throw out that outlier year. But the bigger issue is his age. He’ll be 30 next season. Statistically, most of that next contract will see declining performance each year. If he won’t agree to a deal that bakes that into the cap hit, then I really don’t want my team to be the one saddled with that contact. We’ve seen this team have to give up too much in dealing away their bad contracts over Sweeney’s run.

And the reality is we've already seen the start of that decline most likely. Reality is a player's best years are 24 through 28 generally speaking. You get the scattered outlier where guys have career years later in their career, but for the most part, their best has already passed.

 

[Kalus]

And the reality is we've already seen the start of that decline most likely. Reality is a player's best years are 24 through 28 generally speaking. You get the scattered outlier where guys have career years later in their career, but for the most part, their best has already passed.

I fully agree. And you can still sign players into their 30s, but the term and cap hit have to be right in anticipating the regression.

 

[Kalus]

They literally didn’t have the cap room to sign him long term.

Trades/buyouts etc. Teams make cap room when needed.

 

[MarchysNoseKnows]

Trades/buyouts etc. Teams make cap room when needed.

So overhaul the roster to do this, when you can bridge him for one year? Buyout a player (who?!?) and saddle yourself with future cap issues instead of getting him at a reasonable number for one year? There’s a benefit to a team having control.

 

[Kalus]

So overhaul the roster to do this, when you can bridge him for one year? Buyout a player (who?!?) and saddle yourself with future cap issues instead of getting him at a reasonable number for one year? There’s a benefit to a team having control.

They made a choice. They decided to take the risk that he outperforms in order for the surety of not overpaying in the event he underperforms. It’s all good. We wouldn’t be happy if they signed him long term when he was up and he never developed into a true #1. A Talbot/Petersen type of situation.

My point is that they had a choice. It could have been done. Simple example: unload Griz when Swayman was up. Or trade Ullmark and get a veteran backup to free up $2.5M or so. They then sign Swayman to a $5.5M/6 year deal or something. That contract would look great right about now. But, to be fair, not so much if it ended up being a Talbot/Petersen situation.

That’s the choice they made. Upside, Swayman seems like the real deal and now they can lock him up. Downside, it’s going to take a lot more cap than if they had been proactive and taken a measured risk.

 

[BigBadBruins7708]

no, they'll be "interested" in guys but we'll be watching Pastrnak-McAvoy-Marchand-Swayman carry a group of bottom 6 guys again

 

[Number8]

They literally didn’t have the cap room to sign him long term.

Not sure why this is so complicated for everyone.

Dom was doing the math for us on the daily.

Sometimes it was down to an extraordinarily small amount of money.

Of course, why the Bruins didn't sign Swayman to an $8M (8Y x $1M) deal back then was beyond me. Poor asset management I guess.

 

[BruinsJoe]

This team needs very urgently to add top 6 talent, a big defensive and physical defenseman, a bottom 6 that can hit anything that moves and a enforcer, but Sweeny is awesome and could squander the $6 into poor-quality bottom 6 players he loves it, He’ll probably sign Swayman, definitely sign Heinen that I don’t think the Bs need, keep Ullmark and lose him for nothing next year and lose Debrusk who will be hard to replace...Hope i m wrong!

 

[Ursus8]

Stephenson not good enough not worth the commitment. Not a positive enough player on a stacked Vegas team. Marchessault I like though. Dude knows how to score win and should be affordable.

Center is gonna be a problem. Not paying lindholm that money. They need to find a kid they think can breakout with more minutes. Like a barret hayton or something. Hertl would’ve been nice…..

 

[BigBadBruins7708]

Rask also had a cup run under his belt when he signed, Swayman has won a series. Over 8.5 mil for him seems steep, and I love the guy and what he brings.

Yeah but Swayman isn't the reason they didnt go deeper. If he had the offensive support 2013 Rask had they'd have gone as far

 

[Gonzothe7thDman]

Yeah but Swayman isn't the reason they didnt go deeper. If he had the offensive support 2013 Rask had they'd have gone as far

I can't think of many playoff series the Bruins lost because of goaltending, but I feel if you could sub in this postseasons Swaymans performance into another year in the last decade Bruins probably would have another cup.

It was that good. But like you said the team in front of him just wasn't constructed in a way to take advantage of it. Hopefully we get to see that type of performance again

 

[bruinmann77]

I would not mind Guentzel he a proven playoff scorer