Will Ovechkin hit 20 goals this season?

[jigglysquishy]

He's clearly still going to hit 20 and will almost certainly hit 30.

He's historically been a streaky player. If he's still at this level at game 20 then raise the alarm bells.

The Capitals are awful this year so he's not getting any help.

 

[Toby91ca]

He indeed plays games on an o going basis

I was replying to a comment that was made after last night's game (game 12)

 

[wetcoast]

Gary Suter's hit on Gretzky in the 1991 Canada Cup really impacted Gretzky as an offensive player.

People say this and then ignore that he was already on the downside aging curve that almost every player has in history.

 

[Mick Riddleton]

If the Suter hit doesn’t happen he is at over 1000 goals. He went from being a 170 point pace player in ‘89-‘91 who could still score roughly 50 goals per full year to a guy who would never eclipse or pace for more than 135. He lost so much of what made him Gretzky as an offensive player. It’s not that he missed games it’s that he was diminished in those he played after ‘91. Sure he was naturally declining at 30 but at the end of the ‘91 season he had 718 G, 1424 A, 2142 PTS in 925 GP. His career after that with the effects of that injury was a far cry from even his first 3 kings seasons level. Anyone reasonable would know and estimate his goal total at far beyond 894.

The record would be safe with him. And both Gretzky and Mario would most likely have eclipsed 1K. My fandom has nothing to do with facts here. Ovechkin breaking the record will still be cool to see. I’ve never hated him as a pens fan I actually stand up for opposing players objectively. The fact that 99 would have 1K goals and 3K points isn’t really something that well read fans of the game would really dispute. The fact that through the same point in their careers Ovechkin taking nearly 1700 more shots than Gretzky with less goals is also true.

Gretzky did score a total of 1016 goals in the NHL regular season and playoffs. Ovie's total before this year is 894 plus the 2 he has this season for a grand total of 896. That's a 120 goal differential.

 

[TheNumber4]

Let’s hope he doesn’t hit it. Ovie having the goal record who be a stain on the history books.

 

[Video Nasty]

2 goals in 10 games?

4 goals in the next two games and hes back to 6 in 12 - a 40 goals pace

Of course he needs to score those 4 goals, but his shooting percentage is extrenely low relative to his norm. It wouldnt be too surprising if he did

He indeed plays games on an o going basis

You posted that after the conclusion of game 12. Simple mistake, no need to deflect. 2 goals in 12 games. So 4 goals in the next 2 games would only get him back to a 35 goal pace.

Capitals have only scored 28 goals overall. If they keep up that low pace, they’ll finish with just 191 goals.

If we’re being kind and assuming he scores the same percentage of his teams’ goals as he has over the past decade, while contributing more as an individual, (215 of his teams’ 1,239 goals over the last 5 seasons, or 17.4%), that’s 33 goals.

If we’re not being kind…well….

 

[TropicOfNoReturn]

Lol ok. And what makes you so assured of this prediction?


Not a reverse jinx, 2 goals in 10 games is absolute garbage for this guy. I would not be surprised to see him retire mid season if things don't sort out for him out of shame. A winner like him can't handle embarrassement for too long.

Mulletman already started a thread today.

 

[WalterLundy]

Gretzky did score a total of 1016 goals in the NHL regular season and playoffs. Ovie's total before this year is 894 plus the 2 he has this season for a grand total of 896. That's a 120 goal differential.

That’s true and that one won’t be surpassed. At least I don’t think so. I was just talking regular season obviously but you are correct.

 

[Crease]

More likely Ovi goes on a 20 in 20 heater than finishes with 20 total.

 

[WalterLundy]

People say this and then ignore that he was already on the downside aging curve that almost every player has in history.

There’s no question that’s true but you have to consider that he would be following a steady decline from the 170 pace range post ‘91 and not plummeting to 121 in 74 (130 point guy) as the starting point. Most of which was Even strength play and his goal scoring. Nobody is saying that he’d be able to stay at his ‘89-‘91 level for years after but he’d be dropping to a presumed 45 or more goal guy and 150 point guy for the ‘92-‘94 years. You can kind of fill in his rate of decline from there considering league scoring, his supporting cast, etc.

His decline was inevitable but there is a huge difference in his starting point here in this scenario that leaves a lot of points (and more relevant here) and goals on the table is all. Not that you are flat out wrong though.

 

[Strangle]

He'll hit 25.

The problem is that still leaves him about 50 Behind 99.

He'll be 39 next year. It isnt going to get easier.

I havent checked, is he around 75 goals behind gretzky now?

That doesn’t seem like a lot to cover, but it can be a ing way off without another 40-50 goal season.

You’d need 4 more 20 goal seasons, and things might get more difficult.

He’s SO CLOSE!

 

[Toby91ca]

People say this and then ignore that he was already on the downside aging curve that almost every player has in history.

Sure, but he was still scoring 40+ goals and 160+ points before that......of course he wouldn't continue doing that for 8-10 years as there would be decline, but that injury really set him back....especially goal scoring.

 

[TeeTee]

If you've seen him play recently, he floats around a lot waiting for someone to feed him the puck. Relies on PP and empty net goals now.

In fact, of his 2 goals this year, 1 was on PP and 1 was ENG. The PP goal vs Leafs was with 11 seconds left in the period. So, its conceivable he could have had ZERO goals currently.

Recently? This has been his game for years.

Nothing motivates Ovi more than goals. Not winning, not the playoffs, nothing.

He is going to get his goals. He will go on a tear and score in bunches.

 

[Junohockeyfan]

Have to admit, i haven't watched Ovi play this year. But i am cheering for him NOT to break Gretzky's goal record.

 

[hockeykicker]

thanks op!

 

[Bigrigwilly43]

He's about to start burning down villages.

 

[LeafalCrusader]

You just know this thread is getting bumped every time he scores lol.

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

You just know this thread is getting bumped every time he scores lol.

Yup, it will be my pleasure to do so.

Go Ovi!

 

[stevo61]

I dont get why people are against Ovi breaking the record. I hope he breaks it sooner than later

 

[wetcoast]

You just know this thread is getting bumped every time he scores lol.

His milestone chasing Gretzky thread has been really quite for a while so bumps happen.

I dont get why people are against Ovi breaking the record. I hope he breaks it sooner than later

There are 2 obvious reasons
1) the one everyone knows about but won't be mentioned

2) the zealousness of an extremely vocal minority that think Ovi owning the goal scoring title will someone make him a better player than Crosby.

Personally I don't really care if he breaks the record as I've had him as the best goal scorer in history for several years now but his recent overall play and top line deployment doesn't exactly cast the best light on this quest.

 

[stevo61]

His milestone chasing Gretzky thread has been really quite for a while so bumps happen.


There are 2 obvious reasons
1) the one everyone knows about but won't be mentioned

2) the zealousness of an extremely vocal minority that think Ovi owning the goal scoring title will someone make him a better player than Crosby.

Personally I don't really care if he breaks the record as I've had him as the best goal scorer in history for several years now but his recent overall play and top line deployment doesn't exactly cast the best light on this quest.

Hes also 36 on an aging team. Im not going to hold it against him or the team to just pursue that record as they are obviously nowhere near Cup contenders. The biggest shame is Backstrom no longer there to help Ovi on that quest for the record

 

[wetcoast]

Hes also 36 on an aging team. Im not going to hold it against him or the team to just pursue that record as they are obviously nowhere near Cup contenders. The biggest shame is Backstrom no longer there to help Ovi on that quest for the record

Sure but some people might raise their eyebrows at over %MPG on the PP and offensive zone starts and just really bad production for those kind of deployments and usage.

I saw first hand on how many Canuck fans still though the Sedins were elite when they deployment was sheltering them somewhat.

I guess Ovi fans won't care but some hockey fans will, it is what it is.

 

[HabsCode]

thanks op!

For what lmao? Are you gonna get all jiggly every times the dude scores

 

[stephenball]

Sure but some people might raise their eyebrows at over %MPG on the PP and offensive zone starts and just really bad production for those kind of deployments and usage.

I saw first hand on how many Canuck fans still though the Sedins were elite when they deployment was sheltering them somewhat.

I guess Ovi fans won't care but some hockey fans will, it is what it is.

To be fair, who on the Capitals would take his place at the moment offensively? The whole team is struggling to score, it’s correct to keep Ovechkin in those positions because he’s the most likely to start producing again.

 

[wetcoast]

To be fair, who on the Capitals would take his place at the moment offensively? The whole team is struggling to score, it’s correct to keep Ovechkin in those positions because he’s the most likely to start producing again.

The Capitals simply aren't going to do they aren't trying to develop players (and most teams in the NHL don't because they play to win) but that's the rub the caps are playing for the record a little too much here.

Put another way if Ovi was say 150 goals behind his retirement would probably happen earlier but the focus is what it is and overall when he gets close it will be a great hype machine for hockey and get the NHL mass media coverage perhaps but as a hokey fan I sure hope it doesn't get more embarrassing than what it looks like will happen given last season and the start of this one.

Also with 5 minutes left and with a 3-1 lead when the Isles pull their goalie they will be pushing Ovi out there for that goal.