Will McDavid Score 150 Points+?

[Danarqhy]

Currently 22 points in 10 games for 2.2 PPG. Even if he cools off to a more reasonable PPG his strong start will propel him close to that number. Last to do it is Mario Lemiux in 1995, Jagr was close with 149. McDavid is just an absolute monster out there right now, I wouldn't put it past him to remain at 2.0 PPG the whole season.

Will McDavid do it? Discuss!

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[BallardEra]

24 points in 11 games.

 

[HockeyVirus]

He's shooting double his career shooting % so I doubt he keeps this up

 

[Divine]

It feels like we get this thread at the beginning of every season

 

[Frosty415]

He can definitely do it if he doesn't slump or catch his seasonal flu

 

[koyvoo]

Despite already being by far the best player in the world, he actually took another major step forward last playoffs.

A lot of things have to go right for 150. Safe bet is still the under. But if he has a perfect storm season, it’s not out of his reach.

 

[Mr Kot]

yea

 

[zar]

He's shooting double his career shooting % so I doubt he keeps this up

It feels like we get this thread at the beginning of every season

OILER THREAD!! OILER THREAD!!!
OILER THREAD!! OILER THREAD!!!
OILER THREAD!! OILER THREAD!!!

 

[TheNumber4]

He's shooting double his career shooting % so I doubt he keeps this up

Doubt… hope and pray… same thing.

 

[Hynh]

No but 130 is in play which would be the only one outside of the 26 season span from 1970-71 to 1995-96.

 

[CokenoPepsi]

Maybe, I hope so.

But I'd lean to no

 

[severian]

I say no but I think he gets close. Definitely tops 50 goals this season.

 

[MardyBum]

I doubt it, but I hope he does it. A Rocket on top of a historic modern day point total would be a big feather in the cap of one of the most talented hockey players of all time.

 

[QJL]

I think he gets 136

55 + 81 = 136

 

[Hockey Outsider]

Yes, there's a legitimate chance McDavid scores 150 points this year.

Without getting into all of the math, scoring in hockey generally follows the Poisson probability distribution. We need to make a few assumptions (ie what is McDavid's "true" scoring rate), but this models the range of outcomes.

My best guess (under the important assumption that he misses no games), I give McDavid about an 86% chance of reaching 130 points, and a 22% chance that he reaches 150 points.

Don't get too excited. This still means there's a 78% chance that he doesn't reach 150. And if he misses even a few games, the probability rapidly drops off. But it's incredible that there's a small but reasonable chance that this could actually happen.

 

[Dempsey]

I don't think so. The season is just too much of a grind. He'll go through stretches where he's "only" 1 PPG and it'll bring his pace down.

 

[danny90]

50+ goals for sure

 

[Rengorlex]

The league is so high scoring right now that I see it as a real possibility. Both 5vs5 scoring and powerplay opportunities are up. McDavid is by far the best powerplay producer in the league and will feast just more and more if the calls keep being made.

 

[Calderon]

Would be cool to see but I doubt it. Look at last season's start: the same 22 points in the first 10 games. And then his sh% was at 18.8 (now at 29), so this time it'll be tougher to keep up. I think there's a very good chance he breaks 130 for the first time but even 140 is tough. The Oilers' top 6 is very very good this time around though so he has better help.

 

[Video Nasty]

If he plays all 82 games, I think he pots 70 goals and 150 points. This season (which includes the playoffs) has the feel of a perfect storm brewing that puts to bed most of the criticism leveled at him.

Far-fetched perhaps, but 95% of this forum also thought it was impossible for him to hit 100 points in 2020-2021. I trust my own analysis, noting his focus to work on his shot going into this season, his overall consistency, parallels in history, and so on compared to what others think here.

McDavid is the type of player who alters what one thinks is possible in the current league environment. He had 42 points in his first 22 games last year which actually gave him 150 points in his previous 82 regular season games up to that point. He then went into what was a cold spell for him for 20 games, due to multiple reasons. This season, I think he avoids that stretch where he only picked up 18 points in 20 games.

I didn’t project 150 going into the season; I was in the 130-135 camp, but it seemed clear that he was going to be the first player since Ovechkin in 2007-2008 to sweep the Hart, Lindsay (Pearson), Art Ross, and Rocket, if healthy.

130 would be fantastic and anything more is gravy. Would love to finally witness another 150 point campaign and his skill, combined with the scoring environment of the league, including increased power plays, makes this more of a possibility than it has been in a long time.

Can he score 126 points in his final 71 games? It’s going to be fascinating to find out.

 

[BenchBrawl]

I think he will if he doesn't suffer injuries.

This is gonna be the best season of his career.

He's at the age to do it. He's now in complete control of his game, both youth and veteranship combined together. This won't last long. This year, maybe next year, then he's gonna have to adjust to his body gradually slowing down, like Mario did from 1993 to 1996, where he became more of a chess master and cerebral player.

 

[JAS 39 Gripen]

Hope so, but can see it ending up around 120-130. Combining his talent with the defense/goalies of todays NHL, he should be sniffing that 150 threshold for a few more years. To bad he plays where he does (it's hard to catch Oilers games while living in Sweden, unless you don't like sleeping at all)

 

[PM88RU]

He hasn’t even reached Kuch’s record 128 pts for the modern era, and you assume he will surpass it by 20 pts, really?

Though McDavid is now the best hockey player, 150 is a very bold prediction.

 

[bobholly39]

There's a chance because he's exceptional, and so is Drai. But I'd say this is ~5% chance at most.

Last year was the first time in a few years where he didn't go too crazy in production at end of season - and last year is the first time where he did good (it's actually great) in playoffs. I think there's a good chance he tries to repeat that this year, and slows down a bit late in season if Oilers are safely in playoffs, to ensure he's fresh.

Even without this - 150 points is a ridiculously high bar

 

[Mulletman]

A new career high in goals and points seems like a sure thing. But even last season Mcdavid looked like he had a shot at 150 points after a big chunk of the season. Then the Oilers play dropped and he ended up with just 123 points in order to lose the Hart and Lidsay in devestating fashion. Pretty crazy that McDavid has put up 70 points in his last 32 games and he still might struggle to reach even 130 points once the season is over.