Will Matthews score more than Ovechkin by the end of his career?

[mcdingdong]

It’s highly improbable that Matthews only scores an average of 16 goals per season for the next 12 years (600 goals). In fact, even a 25 goals per year average (700 goals) is very likely to be low.

I'm more likely to snip 40 goals in the NHL next year than Matthews is to play 12 more reasonably healthy seasons.

 

[filinski77]

Here is the best analysis I think anyone can put together on how possible it is. None of this "If Matthews just scores 40 goals a year for 12 more years" crap.

Let's give Matthews a big benefit of the doubt and ASSUME that he will score 110 goals in the next 2 years (55 per year). That would require him to:
a) Stay healthy, which is never a given
b) Score at a rate much higher than 2 of his last 3 seasons, which is still possible as he has peaked way above that. But when looking at a player entering that age where statistically goalscoring starts to fall off, it is still a stretch goal for sure.

So, starting from age 30 season onwards:
What I have here is a chart of all of the 'x' aged goal scoring seasons.

For example, the highest goal total for a 30-year-old is 69, the 2nd is 55, the 20th is 42 goals.
-> Note: I removed Ovechkin from these totals, as Ovi is the biggest anomaly and holds a bunch of these statistical records for x-aged totals.

The result, Matthews would need to do BOTH of the following:
a) Play until 40 years old,
b) Finish on average, with the 5th best goal total for each age from 30 to 40.

That would put him around where Ovi will finish.

The question then becomes, how hard will it be for him to do those 2 things above?
a) Play until 40 years old:

Pretty unlikely that he even plays out his 39/ or 40 year old season. It just doesn't happen very often. Look at the last 10 years and how hard it is to stay in this league at 39 or 40 years old.

And those few guys in this sample who did play out a 40 year old season were putting up like 10 goals or less lol.

b) Averages with the 5th best goal total for his age group:

He has done this exactly 2 times out of his 9 year career.... unlikely to do it for 13 more years LOL.

 

[Video Nasty]

I don’t necessarily disagree with your premise but I chuckled at this sentence caveating Matthews’s performance with “clearly injured” when 39 year old Ovi literally broke his leg, missed 20% of the season, and is going to comfortably outscore him in his prime.

I’m chuckling now too. Freak season by a freak player. It’s mind boggling that Ovechkin is probably going to pot 45+ during a season he is 39 and misses 17 games (I’m assuming they sit him for the finale to rest up for the playoffs).

 

[westc2]

A lot of players score at that pace for their first 10 or so season. Ovechkin is special because he kept up the scoring for 20 seasons.

I don't think he has the consistency to get close even if he plays another 10 years.

 

[Tie Domi Esquire]

Matthews doesn't love hockey, so I can see him pulling chute on his career after signing his next overpayment contract.

 

[kmart]

Matthews doesn't love hockey, so I can see him pulling chute on his career after signing his next overpayment contract.

but the leafs love hockey, they can decide to pay him until he turns 50 years old

 

[WarriorofTime]

The big reason to think the answer is a hard no regardless of any factor pertaining to Matthews keeping pace through x games with Ovechkin career to date, even without having to make assumptions about how well/poorly Matthews could age, is that scoring shot way up from where it was prior beginning in 2017-18 when Ovechkin was 32. This is the primary factor that has kept Ovechkin's goals per 82 (age 32-39) at 48.8, relatively constant to his 49.7 (age 20-31) to basically give raw outputs that aren't far off from his prime to mask a relative decline to league. Basically if scoring was at its current levels for Ovechkin's whole career, he likely would have ripped through the record a while ago and been insurmountable. If scoring stayed at the levels it had been for most of Ovechkin's career, his output would have fallen in line with the League.

Unless Matthews is a beneficiary to scoring averages going up even higher than they are now in his later career, his relative stature likely slipping through his 30s will see a more dramatic decline in raw output. It's just basic math.

 

[GrumpyKoala]

Lol

 

[surixon]

Mathews has missed too much time to date due to injuries to have any shot. He's not even halfway to Ovie's totals through the first 9 years of his career.

If he ages well he'll probably be able to play another decade. He'd have to be healthy and maintain a similar career pace to even sniff it. I'd peg that as extremely unlikely.

 

[ruaware41]

As long as he has Marner attached to him, then he has a legit shot to come close (within a couple hundred goals) but won't score more.

why were people laugh reacting to this? What was so crazy about him coming within a couple hundred goals? This forum can be so ridiculous sometimes. Coming within a couple hundred is within reasonable projection and Marner is an elite playmaker

 

[discobob]

Ovechkin is a brick s***house

His beef was the key to being able to pass Gretzky's raw goal totals while playing in a much lower scoring timeframe. Obviously, he's an amazing goal scorer.... others may be able to match that part at their peak... combine that with his physical stature? NOT HAPPENING

 

[the valiant effort]

Can a mod please add the poll? I figure we can get this thread closed shortly after for lopsidedness

 

[SPLBRUIN]

Not a chance, he dosen't have the drive to even seriously challenge OV.

 

[centipede2233]

Matthews doesn't love hockey, so I can see him pulling chute on his career after signing his next overpayment contract.

Agreed. Matthews doesn’t have the passion ovie, Sid, mcdavid, Mack or drasaitl have.

 

[BallardEra]

Crazy to think that next season will already be his 10th.

Time flies.

 

[Lou Sassole]

Ovechkin is 3rd in hits since they started tracking them in the 2007-08 season.

Exactly, he's definitely first when you take into account how much he hit his first 2 years when clutterbuck and Martin weren't even in the NHL.

 

[TheDawnOfANewTage]

i don’t think it’s a drive thing, Matthews just can’t stay healthy. Already a major wrist issue, this year it’s his back? Bro don’t have the body for it, his skills will recede faster than.. coastal property values.

 

[BB79]

I don't think he will. It's incredibly difficult record to best and Ovi is still adding to it

 

[Lou Sassole]

I truly think that Matthews is hurt this year but I see your point.

I heard Boudreau and Trotz both mention that they've seen Ovie so hurt that they were surprised he even played.

Makes you wonder how many times this happened during their down years.

Orpik was on with Kypreos and Bourne this week and said he saw Ovie play through multiple knee and other injuries where the doctors/trainers told them it would be 2 to 4 weeks at least, and he was on the ice in a day or 2 and not missing any games. I remember the Kadri hit in the playoffs, I was at that game and thought he was out for sure with a blown knee. Nope, he was back out the next period, it was f***ing amazing.

 

[DFC]

Ovy just scored more at 39 than Matthews did at 27.

This is not an easy record to break.

 

[BallardEra]

Ovy just scored more at 39 than Matthews did at 27.

This is not an easy record to break.

Age 25 Ovechkin had 32 goals and age 26 Ovechkin had 38.

I wouldn't judge Matthews on one year at this point in time.

 

[DFC]

Age 25 Ovechkin had 32 goals and age 26 Ovechkin had 38.

I wouldn't judge Matthews on one year at this point in time.

The point is the length of time he has to go without slowing down

 

[Djp]

Matthews is currently scoring at a higher pace than Ovechkin's career G/GP (.622 vs .610) and has shown he can potentially hit higher than 40g per season. Is there a chance that he has the longevity to reach Ovie after another 10 seasons?

About 400g on 9 seasons. 28 at start of next sesson.

Assume next sesson us Ovies last and he has 940.

He would need 540g . If he plays 12 seasons he'd need to avg 45g per.

Can he maintain that?

If in the next 4 seasons he puts up 250g then thst puts him beeding around 300 over thr next 8 seasons which could be doable.

 

[blankall]

Of course he could do it...will he though? There have been plenty of players who've scored goals at a very high pace in the first half of their career. What sets Ovy apart, is his ability to do it through the last half of his career, and so consistently. 42 goals in 61 games, at age of 39 is incredible.

That's much better than Matthews' current 27 year old season at 30 goals in 63 games.

 

[zappa4ever]

///

If in the next 4 seasons he puts up 250g then that puts him needing around 300 over thr next 8 seasons which could be doable.

That's 21 seasons.
the doable-ness is dubious
I doubt AM34 makes it to 1200GP let alone the 1450+ that's likely required

plus a 62.5g average the next 4 seasons? wowie zowie abba zabba great googly moogly