Will Matthews score more than Ovechkin by the end of his career?

[Divine]

I imagine that if Ovie’s record is broken eventually, he will still hold the post-30 goals record forever. He’ll pass Howe next year and wherever he stops, if that record does fall eventually, it won’t be to anyone who is currently 27. Someone will have to put up closer to 550-600 in the first half of their career, IMO. No one is gonna have an Ovie level 30-40 as a goal scorer.

Someone likely will one day.

I made a thread about how Ovechkin could pass Gretzky years ago with a bunch of numbers and the argument back then was how there's no way Ovechkin can keep scoring 30+ into his 30's...and he did.

There's two ways to beat the record:

1.) Score a ton of goals really fast - This is how Gretzky did it.
2.) Consistently score a decent amount of goals and play as long as Jagr.

Ovechkin was a hybrid between the two. The longer a player plays the more obtainable it becomes.

 

[Erik Alfredsson]

The guy isn't even outscoring 39 year old Ovi even though he's in the prime of his career. He will obviously not catch Ovechkin.

I imagine he will finish his career around 700 goals, which is still very impressive. The one thing he does have working for him in regards to chasing Ovi is that Matthews is absolutely the type of guy to chase an individual record above anything else.

 

[BallardEra]

The one thing he does have working for him in regards to chasing Ovi is that Matthews is absolutely the type of guy to chase an individual record above anything else.

I don't get that at all from him. Different generation so maybe he doesn't even want to play as long as Ovechkin has.

 

[Divine]

The guy isn't even outscoring 39 year old Ovi even though he's in the prime of his career. He will obviously not catch Ovechkin.

I imagine he will finish his career around 700 goals, which is still very impressive. The one thing he does have working for him in regards to chasing Ovi is that Matthews is absolutely the type of guy to chase an individual record above anything else.

He's outscored Ovechkin in each of their first 623 games though. Ovechkin had down years too. So to say he's not outscoring Ovechkin while being in his 'peak' is misleading. If this is his peak, then he's outscoring peak Ovechkin.

Matthews not thinking about chasing Ovechkin's goal scoring record | TSN

Toronto Maple Leafs superstar and captain Auston Matthews is focusing on the present, not the future, a day after Washington Capitals legend Alex Ovechkin broke Wayne Gretzky's all-time goal record.

www.tsn.ca

Currently in his ninth season with the Maple Leafs, the 27-year-old has 398 career goals in 623 games.

Some have already started to muse that Matthews could be the best current hope to be the new all-time goal king down the line. When you take a look at the stats, it's easy to see why the speculation is warranted.

At the age of 28, Ovechkin played the 623rd game of his career on Nov. 23, 2013 against the Maple Leafs, scoring the 391st goal of his career in that contest. Like Matthews, it was also the ninth season of his NHL career.

To your latter point, the exact same argument was made about Ovechkin - until he won 14 years after being drafted. Matthews is in his 9th season.

 

[zappa4ever]

Health. Durability.
- Ovechkin's is legendary, proven in reality over 20+ years.
- Matthews' is the reason I put his chances < 1%

To dismiss this major factor in his chances is... hopeful at best

There's little indication he's going to end up Top-50 in longevity
maths is: (GP x gpg rate = projected g ttl) (gms to go / # of full 82gm seasons needed)

if AM34 makes it to:
50th in GP = 1378GP (1378 x .6388 = 880g) (755 more games = 9 82gm seasons + 17gms)
40th = 1411GP (1411 x .6388 = 901g) (788 more games = 9 82gm seasons + 50gms)
30th = 1457GP (1457 x .6388 = 931g) (834 more games= 10 82gm seasons + 14gms)

(career gpg rate 398g / 623gp = .6388)

Let's be reality.
the odds of AM34:
1) keeping the gpg rate for the next 10 seasons
2) actually lasting for 10 more seasons (19 ttl) while playing 95%+ gms total AND keeping that .6388 gpg rate throughout

1% odds seem generous in that light

 

[Fataldogg]

It's highly unlikely. I don't think people realize how hard it is to score that many goals after the age of 30 and still be that productive at 39. Even if Matthew's skill and shot remain at an elite level, he would need perfect health, no lockouts, etc the rest of his career.

Ovechkin hit 895 with two lockouts and COVID shortened season. He would already be over 1,000 by now.

 

[Sypher04]

I think his career stat line upon retiring might look something like Stamkos' stats right now, but with fewer games played. I agree that he can get to 600 but not sure if he will.

Oh come on now.
He’s only 202 goals from 600 at 27 years old.
If he plays until similar age to Ovechkin, that’d only be like 16 goals per year average

I fully don’t expect Matthews to catch Ovechkin, but he should fairly easily reach 700

 

[McFlash97]

Draisaitl has a better chance. More consistant and durable.

 

[Sypher04]

Draisaitl has a better chance. More consistant and durable.

No he doesn’t.

 

[Bizz]

Draisaitl has a better chance. More consistant and durable.

That's a funny way of spelling "Celebrini".

 

[bobholly39]

Curious about the percentages, do you have some calculations behind them or is it more of a analysis/educated guess?

Will be interesting to see in the upcoming years how Matthews paces against OV's career. Goal-scorers often slow down around 30-years old. But truly great ones manage to stay as league leading threats up until 35-36. That's where Matthews needa to be if he is going to break Ovechkin's record. Unless of course, like you said, scoring goes up.

Just a guess here. But I've made posts before with deeper analysis - there's a thread on the history board a few pages back that digs into it a bit deeper.

But it's as you say - short of a career ending injury or falling off a cliff in game play (both of which are very unlikely) - just with normal expectant ageing curve, he's for sure going to surpass 600 and 700, and has a great chance at 800+.

900+ is way too soon to tell. But considering he's ahead of Ovechkin age for age - and considering scoring is higher today than it was for Ovechkin at a similar age - there's a reasonable chance. We'll get a better sense ~3-4 years from now how plausible that is or not.

 

[AD1066]

Draisaitl has a better chance. More consistant and durable.

He's turning 30 next season and is about 43% of where he'll need to be when Ovi is done (assuming 925 goals or so). I could see him finishing top 10 though, as one of the very best scorers of this generation.

I think the next guy to seriously make a run at the record isn't in the league or possibly hasn't been born yet.

 

[ViD]

Will Matthews surpass 895? It's at least possible. I'd say:

~99% he hits 600+
~95% he hits 700+
~50%+ he hits 800+
~10% he hits 895+

He hasn’t been durable enough to warrant such high chances.

Stamkos once was proclaimed the best scorer in the NHL and possible to surpass Ovie, he’s at 580 now, most likely will not hit 650.

 

[bobholly39]

He hasn’t been durable enough to warrant such high chances.

Stamkos once was proclaimed the best scorer in the NHL and possible to surpass Ovie, he’s at 580 now, most likely will not hit 650.

Right but with Stamkos he slowed down quite early due to major injuries. Matthews is still ahead of Ovechkin age for age after his age 27 season.

After age 27 - Matthews has 50 more goals in 40 less games than Stamkos. Career average of ~53 per 82 games vs 43. It's not an insignificant difference.

For what it's worth - my percentages for Matthews imply good health. Not 100% perfect health - just good overall health, with no big, major injuries. So yes - if Matthews has major injuries that'll decrease his odds.

If Matthews plays till age 38 (11 more years) as an example - he'd have to hit an average of 27 goals a season those 11 years to surpass 700 career goals. That's such a low target for a goal-scorer of his stature. I feel very comfortable saying ~95%+ odds.

To hit 800+ goals - he'd need an average of 36 goals per year for 11 seasons. That's also a very reachable target for Matthews - even with some injuries. ~50% seems fair.

900+ is where it gets a lot more unlikely, obviously. He'd need to average 45 goals a year for 11 straight seasons...that's a much, much higher bar. The only way he gets there is if he can rifle up a few more ~55-60+ goal seasons while still young in next ~3-4 years to build a gap...and then avoid major injuries, and also play long enough. It's possible - but a lot of things have to go right, so it's a super high bar and too early in his career to tell if he'll have a legitimate shot. At Matthews's current age - no one really expected Ovechkin to have a shot either.

 

[ViD]

Oh come on now.
He’s only 202 goals from 600 at 27 years old.
If he plays until similar age to Ovechkin, that’d only be like 16 goals per year average

I fully don’t expect Matthews to catch Ovechkin, but he should fairly easily reach 700

This is only possible if:

The Leafs are a perennial contender and he’s surrounded with elite talent.

He is physically stable without serious injuries affecting his shot.

After age 27 - Matthews has 50 more goals in 40 less games than Stamkos. Career average of ~53 per 82 games vs 43. It's not an insignificant difference.

For what it's worth - my percentages for Matthews imply good health. Not 100% perfect health - just good overall health, with no big, major injuries. So yes - if Matthews has major injuries that'll decrease his odds.

Matthews had a serious injury this season and has been scoring at a 42 goals pace over 82 games which is pretty low for him.

 

[Sypher04]

This is only possible if:

The Leafs are a perennial contender and he’s surrounded with elite talent.

He is physically stable without serious injuries affecting his shot.

It’s highly improbable that Matthews only scores an average of 16 goals per season for the next 12 years (600 goals). In fact, even a 25 goals per year average (700 goals) is very likely to be low.

 

[Rhaegar Targaryen]

Matthews is turning 28 and his goal-scoring is receding quicker than his hairline, which is saying something.

 

[gtrower]

True statement, but another way to look at it is this:

Ovechkin had his own “blemishes” at the ages you’re focusing on for Matthews.

…

No question that Ovechkin at 39 setting the record in style is having a better season than the clearly injured age 27 Matthews, but that doesn’t mean Matthews still can’t continue scoring goals at a torrid clip going forward.

…

Matthews isn’t out of it yet.

I don’t necessarily disagree with your premise but I chuckled at this sentence caveating Matthews’s performance with “clearly injured” when 39 year old Ovi literally broke his leg, missed 20% of the season, and is going to comfortably outscore him in his prime.

 

[BallardEra]

I don’t necessarily disagree with your premise but I chuckled at this sentence caveating Matthews’s performance with “clearly injured” when 39 year old Ovi literally broke his leg, missed 20% of the season, and is going to comfortably outscore him in his prime.

I truly think that Matthews is hurt this year but I see your point.

I heard Boudreau and Trotz both mention that they've seen Ovie so hurt that they were surprised he even played.

Makes you wonder how many times this happened during their down years.

 

[BallardEra]

Matthews is turning 28 and his goal-scoring is receding quicker than his hairline, which is saying something.

This made me laugh but come on man. We need to see how the next 2-3 years play out.

 

[filinski77]

It's highly unlikely. I don't think people realize how hard it is to score that many goals after the age of 30 and still be that productive at 39. Even if Matthew's skill and shot remain at an elite level, he would need perfect health, no lockouts, etc the rest of his career.

Ovechkin hit 895 with two lockouts and COVID shortened season. He would already be over 1,000 by now.

Yeah,

Here is a list of the most goals up until end of age 27 season. The reality is, is that being close to Ovechkin up until age 27-30 is completely irrelevant. Because all of these guys that were anywhere from 100 goals ahead, to 30 goals behind are now 100-250 goals BEHIND Ovechkin. The only exception was Gretzky, who had a 250 goal lead and still lost it.

 

[TheDoldrums]

Yeah,

Here is a list of the most goals up until end of age 27 season. The reality is, is that being close to Ovechkin up until age 27-30 is completely irrelevant. Because all of these guys that were anywhere from 100 goals ahead, to 30 goals behind are now 100-250 goals BEHIND Ovechkin. The only exception was Gretzky, who had a 250 goal lead and still lost it.


View attachment 1008347

Aside from Matthews and I guess kinda Jagr, all of those guys ahead of Ovi did it in a vastly higher scoring era. Scoring at their younger paces in the mid-1990s and beyond would have been extremely unlikely even if their skill and performance remained consistent, just because of how the scoring environment changed.

I really don’t see the NHL entering another dead puck era anytime soon so that’s something unlikely to impact the modern guys.

 

[zappa4ever]

///

If Matthews plays till age 38 (11 more years) as an example///

That "If" of yours is carrying so much weight it's unbelievable.

That's 908 potential gms from rn

Let's say he's fairly healthy and averages 77gms/season, that's 55 missed gms = 853 gms

add 853 to his 623 already played = 1476GP = 29th all-time GP

I don't think anyone here thinks he's got that kind of longevity

 

[BallardEra]

All of those guys ahead of Ovi did it in a vastly higher scoring era, aside from Matthews and Jagr. Scoring at their paces in the mid-90s and beyond would have been extremely unlikely even if their skill and performance remained consistent.

I really don’t see the NHL entering another dead puck era anytime soon.

I agree but health and longevity is a tough thing to predict and account for across any era.

 

[filinski77]

All of those guys ahead of Ovi did it in a vastly higher scoring era, aside from Matthews and Jagr. Scoring at their paces in the mid-90s and beyond would have been extremely unlikely even if their skill and performance remained consistent.

I really don’t see the NHL entering another dead puck era anytime soon.

Minus Gretzky (due to being hundreds of goals ahead and still not maintaining #1), and minus Pasta/McDavid/Matthews since they are still young).

Take those guys out and you have the FIFTEEN closest guys to Ovechkin up to the end of age 27. Regardless of if they were ahead of Ovi by a good bit, or just slightly behind, Ovechkin ended up decimating all of them by the end of it.

That's the point. We have high scoring environments, we have lower scoring environments. It doesn't matter.

My point is that history has shown that being close to Ovi in goals up to the age 27 has 0 correlation with finishing close to 900 goals (unless you start with 250 more goals like Gretzky did).