Will Matthews score more than Ovechkin by the end of his career?

[Video Nasty]

I have issues with 70% of WHA.

Regardless, if you do that, you gotta give Ovi his time missed too.

40 goals in 2005
23 goals in 2013
10 goals in 2020
14 goals in 2021

That’s 87. So between that and next year, Ovi without lockouts and covid is 1,000 goals. Over 100 more goals than Hull, 2 more rockets (in a more competitive worldwide league too).

I understand yours is just a response to someone else, so I’m only putting this back out there.

Completely different trajectory if Ovechkin plays the lost 2004-2005 season. Who knows how long the NHL would allow scoring to decline as it had through 2003-2004? Ovechkin certainly wouldn’t be coming into a league where PP’s were juiced through the roof during his first two years.

I’m also a firm believer that the late start to the 2012-2013 season allowed him to recover from a horrible 2011-2012. I’m not so sure his goal totals change that much in an alternate reality where the offseason proceeded as normal. It also doesn’t seem like a coincidence that he had his best first half in 2021-2022 about a dozen years after having to play only 70 games in 18 months due to COVID affecting play in 2019-2020 and 2020-2021.

That’s why we just have to go with how reality unfolded.

The guy is going to own the record with well over 900 goals, play 21 seasons and 1550+ games as is, so it’s probably one of the most favorable simulations out there.

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

I understand yours is just a response to someone else, so I’m only putting this back out there.

Completely different trajectory if Ovechkin plays the lost 2004-2005 season. Who knows how long the NHL would allow scoring to decline as it had through 2003-2004? Ovechkin certainly wouldn’t be coming into a league where PP’s were juiced through the roof during his first two years.

I’m also a firm believer that the late start to the 2012-2013 season allowed him to recover from a horrible 2011-2012. I’m not so sure his goal totals change that much in an alternate reality where the offseason proceeded as normal. It also doesn’t seem like a coincidence that he had his best first half in 2021-2022 about a dozen years after having to play only 70 games in 18 months due to COVID affecting play in 2019-2020 and 2020-2021.

That’s why we just have to go with how reality unfolded.

The guy is going to own the record with well over 900 goals, play 21 seasons and 1550+ games as is, so it’s probably one of the most favorable simulations out there.

There were two work stoppages/shortened seasons during Gretzky's career and he also had 46 goals in the WHA if we want to nitpick but why bother? Ovechkin deserves this and it's good for the game,

 

[Video Nasty]

There were two work stoppages/shortened seasons during Gretzky's career and he also had 46 goals in the WHA if we want to nitpick but why bother? Ovechkin deserves this and it's good for the game,

I agree. Every all-timer has at least some what if or two attached to them. My point is, Ovechkin is going to set a record that’s going to be extremely hard to top, to the point where he may own it as long as Howe and Gretzky did together. I don’t really understand anyone wanting even more.

 

[Randyne]

Who knows how long the NHL would allow scoring to decline as it had through 2003-2004?

NHL allowed scoring to decline 12 years since Ovechkin entered the league. And without any stoppages it's now 3 GPG.

I’m also a firm believer that the late start to the 2012-2013 season allowed him to recover

He played in KHL. He didn't rest. Readjusting from KHL took away another Ross from him.

I don’t really understand anyone wanting even more.

A: I wonder where Mike Bossy would've been if he played more games.
Video Nasty - zero reaction
B: I wonder where Bobby Hull would’ve been.
Video Nasty - zero reaction
C: Ovi missed time too.
Video Nasty - "No he wouldn't get more because I'm a firm believer... I don’t really understand anyone wanting even more".

There were two work stoppages/shortened seasons during Gretzky's career

Only one was shortened the other just postponed. His pace was low, missed only 8 goals. Not 87 like Ovechkin.

and he also had 46 goals in the WHA

Ovechkin had 55 goals in KHL/RSL

 

[HF007]

Mathew’s can’t even outscore OV rn

 

[Satoru Gojo]

No sir

 

[Schennanigans]

No. I don’t think he’ll have a long career.

 

[Dingo]

There were two work stoppages/shortened seasons during Gretzky's career and he also had 46 goals in the WHA if we want to nitpick but why bother? Ovechkin deserves this and it's good for the game,

two?

 

[Video Nasty]

A: I wonder where Mike Bossy would've been if he played more games.
Video Nasty - zero reaction
B: I wonder where Bobby Hull would’ve been.
Video Nasty - zero reaction
C: Ovi missed time too.
Video Nasty - "No he wouldn't get more because I'm a firm believer... I don’t really understand anyone wanting even more".

I don’t like playing what if games…for anyone. But yeah, I’m not exactly going to chime in when Bossy and Hull combined for about 1800 games together.

Ovechkin is probably going to play 1570 games and score 900+ goals. What exactly is the big mystery here?

Why is it so wrong to point out that it’s absolutely pointless to wonder how many games and goals he might have?

 

[Sol]

Worst thread ever l.

 

[Garbageyuk]

No chance. He’s slowing down already while surrounded by several elite offensive players in their primes.

 

[stephenball]

Seems like the “easy” part is keeping up with Ovechkin in your 20’s (still not easy but Matthews is an all time elite goal scoring talent), the tough part is keeping it up and doing what Ovechkin has done through his 30’s.

 

[PolishPrince21]

The person who will break Ovis record which will probably be between 930-940 isn’t even born yet. So ovi will play 21 years and finish his nhl career. So 935/21 is 44.5 goals a year for 21 years , good luck.

 

[frightenedinmatenum2]

Ovechkin isn't just a generational goal scorer. He has generational durability. He will be 40 in September and has not suffered many major injuries. Add in that he was fortunate enough to start his career during a period where rules allowed for higher scoring and also end it during a period where changes in the rules have also increased production.

There is a reason Ovechkin breaking this record is so unbelievable. It's a record that was never meant to be broken. If you combine Ovechkin's durability and his goal scoring, generational is an understatement.

Matthews would have to play about 12 more seasons at his current career pace of 52 goals to break the record. That's assuming Ovechkin retires at the end of the season and doesn't add another 25-50 next year.

It is going to require a major rule change for it to get broken. Something like powerplays go the full two minutes regardless of goals scored.

 

[TheLegend27]

No chance. He’s slowing down already while surrounded by several elite offensive players in their primes.

Yeah the Leafs aren’t going to get better. Even if Matthews doesn’t regress, his team’s playmaking certainly will after the main core reaches into their 30s. That’s going to add to the challenge.

 

[Divine]

Not likely if he keeps having health issues. He hasn't played 82 games since his rookie season.

Ovechkin has stayed relatively healthy throughout his career. Matthews misses like 10-20 games most seasons. He's played 75+ games twice in 9 seasons.

 

[22Brad Park]

Leafs will go through a rebuilding phase against so I can't see it happening

 

[Video Nasty]

There is a reason Ovechkin breaking this record is so unbelievable. It's a record that was never meant to be broken. If you combine Ovechkin's durability and his goal scoring, generational is an understatement.

People say that and it’s certainly been the drum that’s been beat, part of the mystique of the chase, but it’s made me wonder if anyone has looked at Gretzky’s long list of records. The goals record has always stuck out as the most achievable to me, one of the most seemingly human of all his records. I guess for awhile, during DPE 1.0 and the bottoming out of scoring, it could have been seen as untouchable, but I’m not so sure the thought crossed anyone’s mind with any seriousness. Gretzky had only just retired 5 years before the lockout, so I don’t think it was something we were actively deciding was unbreakable, since we hadn’t had time to even digest it being the final mark.

That’s not to say that I believed Ovechkin would do it until it became inevitable, but this isn’t exactly Gretzky’s assist total which still remains more than anyone else has points—a fun sentence with limited life since McDavid should be able to make a serious push at 2000 points.

 

[pld459666]

In 17 years Phil Kessel had 190 hits.

Ovi had 188 in his age 37 season

Further, Ovechkin is 3rd all time in hits in the NHL.

His durability is insane

 

[pezpunk]

Add in that he was fortunate enough to start his career during a period where rules allowed for higher scoring

LOL WHAT

 

[Plastic Joseph]

People say that and it’s certainly been the drum that’s been beat, part of the mystique of the chase, but it’s made me wonder if anyone has looked at Gretzky’s long list of records. The goals record has always stuck out as the most achievable to me, one of the most seemingly human of all his records. I guess for awhile, during DPE 1.0 and the bottoming out of scoring, it could have been seen as untouchable, but I’m not so sure the thought crossed anyone’s mind with any seriousness. Gretzky had only just retired 5 years before the lockout, so I don’t think it was something we were actively deciding was unbreakable, since we hadn’t had time to even digest it being the final mark.

That’s not to say that I believed Ovechkin would do it until it became inevitable, but this isn’t exactly Gretzky’s assist total which still remains more than anyone else has points—a fun sentence with limited life since McDavid should be able to make a serious push at 2000 points.

Yeah I started watching hockey in the early 00s DPE and at the time I couldn't fathom anyone breaking the record. It was almost impossible to score 50 goals at that point. But I agree with your point that the goals record is actually the most likely, even then.

If you asked me which I could see getting broken between 215 pts, 92 goals , 163 assists,1963 assists, 2857 pts, ans 894 goals, I would have easily said the goals because the rest are all so insane they are still seemingly unreachable for eternity

 

[villacco]

Ovechkin had 475 goals on his 30th birthday (10 years in the league)
Matthews has 397 right now (9 years). So he will finish the season with around 400 goals (28th birthday).
Matthews might not even get to 475 goals in two years. But even if you are optimistic, he wont have more than like 500 goals on his 30th birthday.

Not a big advantage considering what Ovechkin has done after his 30th birthday.
It will make it nearly impossible for Matthews to break the rekord. Betting on Matthews to score 400 goals after his 30th birthday will leave you dissapointed. Only Howe and Ovechkin did it.

 

[TheLegend27]

it’s possible that scoring rises even higher with talks of possible 36 team league with expansions. That could help Matthews pad his stats in his 30s… still the odds are against him

 

[Chet Manley]

Further, Ovechkin is 3rd all time in hits in the NHL.

His durability is insane

Ovechkin is 3rd in hits since they started tracking them in the 2007-08 season.

 

[Rpenny]

Only if he plays till he is 40