Will Connor McDavid win the 2024-2025 Art Ross Trophy?

[Nathaniel Skywalker]

Kuch n makar smell blood...

 

[The Gr8 Dane]

He will roar back and have some ridiculous pace but fall short to Kuch imo

 

[Albatros]

56th to start with and potentially missing games, no.

 

[Video Nasty]

Even I’m having a bit of trouble imagining this one. If he misses up to 12 games and only plays 70 games total, he could come back, average 2 PPG for the rest of the year, and still “only” hit 130 points. There is so much top end competition that I’m not confident it is enough.

Kucherov and MacKinnon are off to better starts this season and they still hit 140 last year. Panarin hit 120 and he’s there again this season so far. Makar and Kaprizov are having really exciting starts. These guys make up half of the top 2-10 players in the world and they’re already sitting at or near the top of the scoring race.

It’s also worth noting that for McDavid to not be rushed back, Draisaitl will need to shoulder the load and if he does as expected, we’re talking about a 20 point difference to make up right there.

I’m skeptical that he needs to care about making up a potential 35 point deficit in the Art Ross race, knowing how close the Oilers got last postseason. I’m letting this one go.

All that said, he is McDavid and it wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest to see him come back and win it, but put me down for him not doing it so I can enjoy however the race unfolds without that baggage and hope he can heal up without needless pressure to return.

 

[authentic]

Theres no chance of that happening. Do you know how many points Lemieux had by the 10 game mark of that season? 32.

If Lemieux had as cold of a start as McDavid was having even he probably wouldn't have won.

Really puts into perspective how unlikely it is. I don’t even think he finishes top 10 this year to be honest.

 

[TheGoldenJet]

He was very mediocre for the first 10 games, when fully healthy.

SCF hangover perhaps?

 

[KaN19]

Voted top 3. And even putting the injury aside, McDavid's already likely peaked. Oilers will regret not winning the cup last year.

 

[Pablo El Perro]

Theres no chance of that happening. Do you know how many points Lemieux had by the 10 game mark of that season? 32.

If Lemieux had as cold of a start as McDavid was having even he probably wouldn't have won.

I didn't mean to claim he's Lemieux. Just saying, bad start, injury, it's hard to doubt his ability to put together a stretch that will get him back in the race.

 

[bobholly39]

Really puts into perspective how unlikely it is. I don’t even think he finishes top 10 this year to be honest.

Top 10?

The 10th scorer had 98 points last year. The year before, 102 points. The year before, 97 points. So ~97-102 points is the range it seems.

If McDavid misses 12 games, he'd need a ppg of 1.46 to hit 102 points. The last time McDavid was below 1.46 ppg was 7 years ago, in a much lower scoring league.

Unless you're simply thinking he's going to miss a whole lot more than 12 games, I don't think finishing top 10 is going to be too difficult for him.

 

[Nathaniel Skywalker]

I didn't mean to claim he's Lemieux. Just saying, bad start, injury, it's hard to doubt his ability to put together a stretch that will get him back in the race.

Just shows you how great lemieux was. He missed 24 games. Yet still won by 12 points. And those 24 games were missed due to radiation treatment. A mind blowing 56 points in 20 games upon return. GOAT

 

[bobholly39]

Just shows you how great lemieux was. He missed 24 games. Yet still won by 12 points. And those 24 games were missed due to radiation treatment. A mind blowing 56 points in 20 games upon return. GOAT

He actually took ~3 games to really get going too. If you only look at his final 17 games, it's even more impressive.

17 games, 29 goals, 24 assists, 53 points.

29 goals in 17 games is a pace of 140 goals in 82, to put it in perspective.

 

[KevinRedkey]

Voted yes. He makes it hard to bet against him. He’s that good.

Kucherov has beaten a healthy McDavid twice.

Not saying McDavid isn't good (he's amazing) but I don't see him catching Kucherov as long as Kuch stays healthy.

 

[Luigi Lemieux]

He actually took ~3 games to really get going too. If you only look at his final 17 games, it's even more impressive.

17 games, 29 goals, 24 assists, 53 points.

29 goals in 17 games is a pace of 140 goals in 82, to put it in perspective.

Still convinced we were robbed of the greatest season of all time. Was on pace for 97 goals and 224 points.

 

[authentic]

Kucherov has beaten a healthy McDavid twice.

Not saying McDavid isn't good (he's amazing) but I don't see him catching Kucherov as long as Kuch stays healthy.

McDavid wasn’t healthy last year, played hurt at the beginning of the season and missed some games afterwords. Before that McDavid hadn’t reached his true prime/peak yet. Still though I don’t see McDavid really giving much of a care about his regular season stats now and he’s dealing with an injury that will both have him out for a while and could make it harder to be at 100% shortly after returning. I don’t see a top 5 point finish from him and although it is still easily possible I think top 10 isn’t happening either for the reasons I mentioned combined with his slow start.

 

[Regal]

Kucherov has beaten a healthy McDavid twice.

Not saying McDavid isn't good (he's amazing) but I don't see him catching Kucherov as long as Kuch stays healthy.

Kucherov also has two healthy seasons between those years that weren’t close to the Art Ross (25 points back in ‘20 and 40 points back in ‘23). He does look primed to have another big year though.

 

[authentic]

Kucherov also has two healthy seasons between those years that weren’t close to the Art Ross (25 points back in ‘20 and 40 points back in ‘23). He does look primed to have another big year though.

Hey now I wonder if Kucherov wins the Art Ross again when does the conversation about McDavids grace period begin?

Top 10?

The 10th scorer had 98 points last year. The year before, 102 points. The year before, 97 points. So ~97-102 points is the range it seems.

If McDavid misses 12 games, he'd need a ppg of 1.46 to hit 102 points. The last time McDavid was below 1.46 ppg was 7 years ago, in a much lower scoring league.

Unless you're simply thinking he's going to miss a whole lot more than 12 games, I don't think finishing top 10 is going to be too difficult for him.

See my post above responding to Kevinredkey. I still wouldn’t exactly be surprised with a top 10 finish though.

 

[Regal]

Hey now I wonder if Kucherov wins the Art Ross again when does the conversation about McDavids grace period begin?

I know you’re making a joke, but I wasn’t suggesting McDavid is necessarily that far ahead, just that Kucherov isn’t an automatic 130-140 point player. It’s still possible the Art Ross is won in the 120ish range even with healthy seasons from the rest of the usual suspects.

 

[Crow]

Kucherov is going to empty net his way to another art ross.

 

[authentic]

I know you’re making a joke, but I wasn’t suggesting McDavid is necessarily that far ahead, just that Kucherov isn’t an automatic 130-140 point player. It’s still possible the Art Ross is won in the 120ish range even with healthy seasons from the rest of the usual suspects.

Yeah I was just thinking back to when Crosby was beat twice in a row in points and points per game and some posters joked about his grace period when others still considered him the best. If Kucherov beats McDavid again in both I think most would still consider McDavid the better player but if it happened the third time things could get interesting.

 

[Jetcetera]

He's cooked

 

[Nathaniel Skywalker]

Yeah I was just thinking back to when Crosby was beat twice in a row in points and points per game and some posters joked about his grace period when others still considered him the best. If Kucherov beats McDavid again in both I think most would still consider McDavid the better player but if it happened the third time things could get interesting.

Its funny because some posters were looking down on fact that crosby finished third in scoring at 27 and 28. Yet mcdavid finished third last year at 27 (76 gp is more than enough) n this year started off slow n is now injured.

 

[crowfish]

He is capable of winning it if he really wants to try, but I don't think he cares anymore about racking up regular season stats. He looks like he is happy to play a safer game instead of trying to beat guys 1 on 1 driving to the net and risking injury. I hope he gets a Cup in the next 2 seasons so we can see another year like 2020 or 2022 where he goes all out in the regular season.