Will Connor McDavid win the 2024-2025 Art Ross Trophy?

[bobholly39]

This season is looking similar to last year already...McDavid injured early on, might miss 2-3 weeks, and Oilers started out the season poorly. Will have to climb back up the scoring race, if possible. Last year people wrote him off early after a poor start/injury, but he made a hell of a comeback. He did fall short of Kucherov/Mack for Art Ross, but they were both fantastic seasons of their own - in most years, the bar would have been lower, and McDavid might have still won the Art Ross.

So the question is - McDavid is now injured, and news is he's out of ~2-3 weeks - does he still win the Art Ross this year? Does he even finish top 3 in scoring?

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[jetsforever]

Top 3

 

[Calderon]

Can Draisaitl seize the day and take it down like he did in 2020? It'd do wonders for his legacy. The injury opens the door for a new AR winner, too, such as the current scoring leader Kaprizov.

I voted top3, I think the healing time may give McDavid much needed mental rest for the grueling ~60 games the Oilers will have left when CM comes back.

 

[ViD]

He’s already 8 points behind the lead, will likely be around 20 points when returns

No chance he wins it and likely will finish outside of top 3.

Kucherov, Panarin, MacKinnon, Kaprizov will likely determine the winner

 

[Mr Kot]

No, he was injured only a few games last season and lost it. Losing any more games probably means he just loses it again.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

No, but he’ll be close. Someone will sustain their pace around 115-125, and the slow start and injury will make it so he doesn’t reach more than a little above 100.

 

[McPoyle]

Missing 2-3 weeks means he misses 8-12 games. And he already had a slow start with 10 points in 9 games. So its a pretty small chance at this point.

 

[Three On Zero]

A healthy motivated McDavid can be a scary thing when he comes back, top 3 finish at worst.

 

[eXile3]

Voted yes. He makes it hard to bet against him. He’s that good.

 

[bobholly39]

Missing 2-3 weeks means he misses 8-12 games. And he already had a slow start with 10 points in 9 games. So its a pretty small chance at this point.

His ppg 2 years ago was 1.87, last year was 1.74 Assuming he can maintain somewhere in that range, and misses ~10 games, I'd say he has a good chance.

If McDavid misses 10 games, and matches 1.74 ppg, that puts him at ~125 points in 72 games.
If McDavid misses 10 games, and matches 1.87 ppg, that puts him at ~135 points in 72 games.

Kucherov and MacKinnon are the only players to have surpassed 128 points in any of the last 6 years, and it was a career year for both last year. Is that repeatable? Will they themselves miss games, and score less this year?

The odds aren't great for him - but assuming McDavid puts forth another great season after he's back, I still think he has a pretty good chance.

 

[Crosby2010]

5 Art Rosses is something only Gretzky, Lemieux and Howe have surpassed. Jagr and Esposito have 5, as does McDavid. Not that he isn't the best player in the NHL still, because he is, but I don't know how long people think a player can maintain that level against the entire field of the NHL for so long. McDavid did it 5 times, even without getting hurt this year I wasn't sure if he could do more than 6 even. It's hard. MacKinnon had 140 points last year and Kucherov had 144. I am going to say MacKinnon is the Art Ross winner this year.

 

[dalewood12]

Certainly possible for him to do it, but my money is on Kucherov.

 

[Regal]

It wouldn’t be surprising but I think there’s so much talent today that I’d say no. Kucherov, MacKinnon, Draisaitl, Panarin and maybe even Kaprizov are capable of 120+ imo, and McDavid would probably be in that range with 10 missed games considering his 10 point start already.

 

[Regal]

His ppg 2 years ago was 1.87, last year was 1.74 Assuming he can maintain somewhere in that range, and misses ~10 games, I'd say he has a good chance.

If McDavid misses 10 games, and matches 1.74 ppg, that puts him at ~125 points in 72 games.
If McDavid misses 10 games, and matches 1.87 ppg, that puts him at ~135 points in 72 games.

Kucherov and MacKinnon are the only players to have surpassed 128 points in any of the last 6 years, and it was a career year for both last year. Is that repeatable? Will they themselves miss games, and score less this year?

The odds aren't great for him - but assuming McDavid puts forth another great season after he's back, I still think he has a pretty good chance.

At the same time, he already has 10 points in 10 games. So if he misses 10 that would only give him 62 more games. In order to hit 125 he’d need to be at 1.85 in those remaining games. In order to hit 135 he’d need to be at 2.02.

Not that that’s out of the ordinary for him really as he had 119 in his final 62 last year, but it’s a lot less likely he goes much over 125 than if he had a strong start.

 

[2023FriendshipTour]

Not a chance now barring other star player injuries. He's already behind and will miss 8 or more games probably. Could still finish top 5 which would be pretty darn good considering.

 

[Cup or Bust]

No, I don't think this season.

 

[bobholly39]

At the same time, he already has 10 points in 10 games. So if he misses 10 that would only give him 62 more games. In order to hit 125 he’d need to be at 1.85 in those remaining games. In order to hit 135 he’d need to be at 2.02.

Not that that’s out of the ordinary for him really as he had 119 in his final 62 last year, but it’s a lot less likely he goes much over 125 than if he had a strong start.

Yes - I'm definitely basing this projection on what he did the last 2 years. And that's obviously a super high bar, so no guarantee he produces at the same rate. But it is McDavid, and he did it 2 years in a row, so assuming he paces at that level again and misses those ~10 games, that's probably the highest range he'd reach. And if he did reach that - he's probably in the running.

 

[KrisLetAngry]

Can Draisaitl seize the day and take it down like he did in 2020? It'd do wonders for his legacy. The injury opens the door for a new AR winner, too, such as the current scoring leader Kaprizov.

I voted top3, I think the healing time may give McDavid much needed mental rest for the grueling ~60 games the Oilers will have left when CM comes back.

Draisaitl went ballistic in 2020. Excited to see him bulldoze talent in 2024 2025.

 

[Luigi Lemieux]

Not this year. He went all out last year trying to recover from a poor team start and then a long grueling playoffs. Even before he got injured he was very much not himself and looked just so so for his standards. I believe it was the worst ten game stretch of his career. Which is crazy considering it was still 10 points in 10 games.

 

[Monsieur Miz]

Nah he's cooked.