Big year for Brackett. You would really like to see at least one of Rossi, Yurov, Ohgren, Wallstedt or Lambos show some star qualities.
Prospect Info: Wild Prospect Thread 2023-2024
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Ok I might have mis interpreted that a bit but still the point stands. Just take football for example, of the 5 star college recruits (same age as nhl drafted players) only about half of them get drafted into the nfl and even then a much smaller numbers are 1st rounders or impact players.
It's not not comparable to me, those are 2nd round NHL draft pick odds. 50% get drafted and 3/4 of them get retained or a 37% chance of becoming a pro player of any sort.
NHL 1st rounders should be expected to be contributors and make that 100 game mark. It's reasonable to expect (in an average quality draft):
- a NHL top-10 pick to become a top half of the lineup player (top-6 FWD, starting goalie, or a 1-3D).
-10-20 pick to be a middle of lineup player (middle-6 FWD, 2nd pair d-man, still a starting goalie)
-20-30 pick to be a bottom half of the lineup player (bottom-6 FWD, 4-6D, still a starting goalie).
-30-45 pick to be a depth player/roster filler, backup goalie
-after 45 are the injury callup/replacements.
-any prospect that meets/exceeds this is a win, and prospect that doesn't is a loss.
Hockey players have a much larger sample size compared to football players their pre-draft year. Highschool football is 10-14 games in a season. CHL kids (Dewar) play 70+ games. Mitts had 50 games between high school and USHL. Russians (Kap) had 50+ games MHL/KHL/U-18/20. Ohgren had 50+ games between SHL and U20. College (Stramel) is 30+ games.
I think you set unreasonable expectations. It's not the number of games but the huge development curve from 18 to whenever some of these guys break into the nhl.
Not for 1st round picks. After 1 AHL (age 20+) season, skaters should be pushing the full time NHL lineup. It's pretty much the norm in the current NHL.
Of the 1st round picks (MAF, MarJo, JEE, Boldy, Hartman and Brodin) currently on the Wild. Hartman (2 AHL seasons) was the latest to be a full time NHL player (age 22).
If you add in former Wild 1sts or Leddy, Granny, Dumba, Kunin, and Tuch they all were full time at age 21.
Nino and Coyle were traded for as prospects and both in the NHL full time at age 21. This group runs the full gambit of pick #1 (MAF) to pick #30 (Hartman).
The 1st rounders that busted were Phillips and FJ (not even signed).
This isn't something that's unique to MN.
I just don't think these kinds of expectations are based on the reality of the draft, there are just too man examples of players not meeting or far exceeding any expectations in all rounds.
I just read something interesting; you can't develop a #1 defenseman by having him play a bottom pair role. And I think there is something to be said about that. Minnesota takes a different approach though and I'm wondering if that is what the problem is.
DANOZ28
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don't forget major bust aj thelen. disappointments b pouliot; j sheppard; colton gillies just to name a few
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BagHead
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Alternative possibility: future top pairing defensemen are too good to put on lower pairings, but the Wild never draft one that's that good.
Closest was Brodin, and he played top pairing in the NHL right away (once he was called up), before Spurgeon took that spot permanently.
So the closest player they had to a #1 defender was the guy they developed by not playing him in a bottom pair role.
The other guy they drafted who was supposed to reach close to that level was Dumba. Who they tried to bring along by playing him in a bottom pair role and his development was by no means quick. Seems there may be something to that mentality and Dumba should have been stuck in Iowa for a while.
Dr Jan Itor
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Dumba was a 50 point player, playing 24 minutes per night, at 23 years old. His "development" was fine; his ability to maintain, injury or not, wasn't.
But if you apply that to guys in the top 6/top role as well. Like they are putting Rossi on the 3rd and 4th lines and then are shocked he isn't producing.
Oh, cool, he must have been good defensively then too? Or was this the guy drafted with huge offensive talent who needed to develop his defensive game? Plug him in for 23 minutes per night in 14-15 and he probably hits close to 50. His development was on the other side of the ice. And it's some selective memory if you're going to pretend he wasn't a huge liability at 23 and still for years following.
BagHead
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They shouldn't be shocked. I think everyone not named Kaprizov would struggle to put up assists with Foligno and Gaudreau as their wings. My point was simply that if a player is that high-end, they might just force you to pay them on the top lines/pairings with their play, and that may be why that's how it usually happens for those guys.
Well they played him in the top 6 for 4 preseason games and he registered 8 points including a goal and assist the one game with Kaprizov and Zuccarello. Then they put him on the 4th line for the final preseason game with the full roster and he didn't register a point. It seems he did all he could to force them to play him and Dean just went with the lineup he picked before preseason for the top 9 anyway.
BagHead
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I'm not defending Dean for that decision, Rossi deserved top-6 time immediately after his preseason showing but didn't get it. After that, he also didn't show enough to stick in the top-6 again. Both are true.
It's quite a small sample, but of his time in the NHL regular season last year, he spent 23.2% of it with Boldy, and another 4.1% centering Kaprizov and Zuccarello. That's more than a quarter of his time spent in the top-6, during which he had 1 point of production (with Kaprizov and Jost). All the talk about him not getting a chance in the top-6 ignores that he did have a couple of chances there, just not right away, and he did nothing with those chances.
Source: Dobbersports
EDIT: Of course, putting Foligno on the Boldy-Rossi line did nobody any favors. Why they kept going to that over and over I don't know.
EDIT 2: To be clear on what I'm saying, it's fair to say they didn't immediately put him in a position to succeed, but it's also clear that he isn't of the top line quality, at the moment, that would force a team to play him there. He isn't a Pat Kane, a Trevor Zegras, or even a PLD.
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- Dec 10, 2012
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I guess they like something about Dean, but from what I've seen, I wouldn't want him around all the young players as they come up the next few years. Seems like he doesn't really have the time of day for young, unpolished players. The NHL isn't a development league, and NHL coaches should always try to win games, but you gotta have ice time and opportunity available for these guys as they come up, and when they make mistakes, there has to be a teaching moment, followed by opportunity for them to correct the mistake and adjust going forward.
Some guys just aren't ready yet and that's fine, but you can't really know they're not ready until they have a real opportunity (including making mistakes and being given the leash to try to adjust) in a position to succeed.
Some guys just aren't ready yet and that's fine, but you can't really know they're not ready until they have a real opportunity (including making mistakes and being given the leash to try to adjust) in a position to succeed.
Spurgeon
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The problem I have with Rossi’s usage was that there was no absolutely no consistency in his linemates. Dean shifted him around so much that those “10 games” with Boldy are a total of 66 minutes of 5v5 ice time.
Even using the 66 minutes, Boldy’s numbers were just flat out better away from Rossi.
I don’t think Rossi did anything in any position at the NHL level to distinguish himself from Steel, Jost or Petan.
At this point we are just hoping that a switch will flick with Rossi, both physically and mentally. What bothered me a bit in his brief time in the NHL was that he didn’t seem to adjust well to the speed,strength, and smarts of the NHL. I think that Dean will have little to do with whether he succeeds or not as a NHL’er. If Rossi is going to make it as a top 6 guy it will because his talent and level of play will not be denied, not because he gets coached up.
Al Lagoon
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- Feb 22, 2012
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BagHead
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He can be, and has been often for the Wild, but not always. I've seen plenty of people speculating on a Foligno - Rossi - Gaudreau line this season. Especially The Athletic. This is from there (Joe Smith):
My own personal take on this lineup is that it would be a mistake. They should start Rossi off with a scoring winger. He's a playmaker, if you don't put him with a scorer you can't expect offense from him.
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The good thing about Rossi’s NHL struggles is that he was so obviously overwhelmed that we can’t judge him longterm. His confidence was non-existent and he was paralyzed from fear of making a mistake. He didn’t give us his best and come up short - instead he showed he wasn’t ready yet. We saw in the pre-season that he can play and his AHL & CHl resume remain impressive. My gut says he may be a bust or more of a 3C but it’s just too soon still.
DeagleJenkins
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Bump Hartman to third line RW and move Gaudreau to C. Ek to 1C and Rossi to 2c. Start the year like that, give him 10 games with Boldy and Johansson in an offensive sheltered roll that they already get. If he doesn’t produce then we know it’s not because of where he is played in the lineup. 10 games is enough to at least show competence with offensive ability and more offensively inclined players.
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