Why will this team not go all in?

[Antropovsky]

Marner helped create a lot of offense and goals during the playoffs - even scoring some himself - but there's no point in going through every playoff goal again when you've already made up your mind that literally everything that happens while Marner is on the ice is either bad or because of somebody else. When Marner gets an assist, it's only an assist - why he no score goal? When Marner scores a goal, it was set up because of the other guy. When Marner makes a quality play that generates an offensive chance but doesn't get credited with a point, it doesn't matter because he didn't get a point. When Marner makes a nice defensive play, it was actually because of the goalie or defenseman and it's only defense - we can pay scrubs for that, right? When Marner gets points, hits, blocked shots, takeaways, and considerably tilts the ice in every way in a game, it doesn't matter because he didn't personally get a shot that one time.

I'm not sure there's actually anything Marner could do where you'd give him his proper credit.

Literally only one of those 9 things I named was an "expected number", and whether you want to acknowledge it or not, expected goals are a valuable metric.
You seem to think paying somebody their worth means an automatic series win. That's not how this works. Everybody's operating under the same cap. You pay players more to bring more value and impact to your team. Marner does, and is far, far, far from the reason we've lost in the playoffs.
And for the record, the GF/60 stuff was to disprove the false claim that was made about Matthews producing better away from Marner.

Long term, there's still more to evaluating GMs and coaches than looking exclusively at playoff series wins and losses with zero context. While that is a result that we as fans highly value, that is just one of many types of results, and one that is usually not actually very representative of much. It can get an organization into a lot of trouble if they put too much stock into it. For example, the likes of Vancouver, Montreal, Islanders, etc. held onto bad, destructive GMs and made counterproductive moves for the health of their franchise because they overemphasized a playoff run instead of looking at the bigger picture, where their franchise was at, and how those individuals were actually doing at their job. 3 and 4 years is also not long-term.

In game 7, Marner had an assist, 2 hits, a takeaway, a shot block, and he helped tilt the ice considerably while he was on the ice at ES, with 90% of the shot attempts, 91% of the shots, 94% of the scoring chances, 83% of the high danger chances, and 86% of the expected goals. Marner is far, far, far from the reason we lost game 7 or the series.

Matthews-Marner together generated 5.13 GF/60. Matthews without Marner generated 3.39 GF/60.

There's more to evaluating GMs and coaches than exclusively playoff series wins and losses with zero context.

Matthews-Marner together generated 5.13 GF/60. Matthews without Marner generated 3.39 GF/60.

Any reason you didn't put Marners gf/60 without matthews? I'd be interested in those stats for this year and last.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Any reason you didn't put Marners gf/60 without matthews?

Because it had nothing to do with the discussion. Your claim was that Matthews produced better away from Marner. That's wildly incorrect. Both produce better with the other.

 

[NoTeeth]

I think Florida tried to go "Al in" and it's been a complete bust. No 1sts until 2026.

 

[Antropovsky]

Because it had nothing to do with the discussion. Your claim was that Matthews produced better away from Marner. That's wildly incorrect. Both produce better with the other.

Why did you delete the rest of my question?

What is the stats of Marner away from Matthews vs Matthews away from Marner on the website you use?

 

[Dekes For Days]

Why did you delete the rest of my question?
What is the stats of Marner away from Matthews vs Matthews away from Marner on the website you use?

I answered the one and only question in your post.
If you're interested in additional information, you're welcome to go look it up. Probably should have done that before making your false claim in the first place.

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

I think Florida tried to go "Al in" and it's been a complete bust. No 1sts until 2026.

Florida is basically hoping that their core of mid-late 20s guys can carry them for the next 3 seasons as contenders. When these guys all hit their 30s and start declining Florida will have to pay the piper for all these sold futures, but if they manage to get a Cup out of it they won’t care.

With that defence of theirs though I’m not sure how realistic their Cup aspirations are. Maybe they’ll outscore all their problems again.

 

[NoTeeth]

Florida is basically hoping that their core of mid-late 20s guys can carry them for the next 3 seasons as contenders. When these guys all hit their 30s and start declining Florida will have to pay the piper for all these sold futures, but if they manage to get a Cup out of it they won’t care.

With that defence of theirs though I’m not sure how realistic their Cup aspirations are. Maybe they’ll outscore all their problems again.

I think they've really regressed this offseason.

 

[Notsince67]

Why did you delete the rest of my question?

What is the stats of Marner away from Matthews vs Matthews away from Marner on the website you use?

At even strength, Marner played with a combination of 142 different configurations of forwards. Are you including the 1 second ice time or has your robust analysis rounded off to a more substantive sample size?
Do you know? Are you focusing on his time away with Nick Ritchie? You consider Matthew Marner & Ritchie combination that failed to score a goal and let 3 in? Are you looking at even strength, 5x5, PP, PK or all of the above.
Please answer all questions and don't delete any of them.

 

[Antropovsky]

At even strength, Marner played with a combination of 142 different configurations of forwards. Are you including the 1 second ice time or has your robust analysis rounded off to a more substantive sample size?
Do you know? Are you focusing on his time away with Nick Ritchie? You consider Matthew Marner & Ritchie combination that failed to score a goal and let 3 in? Are you looking at even strength, 5x5, PP, PK or all of the above.
Please answer all questions and don't delete any of them.

Why are you two sensitive over someone asking what Marners stats away from Matthews are vs Matthews away from Marner?

I didn't post any stats.... @Dekes For Days is the one who posted gfx stats....though I didn't see you asking him all these questions about how he came up with his numbers? Why didn't you care then?

I answered the one and only question in your post.
If you're interested in additional information, you're welcome to go look it up. Probably should have done that before making your false claim in the first place.

I could, what site do you use? Fair to speculate that Marners stats away from Matthews are worse than Matthews stats away from Marner considering you don't want to post them?

 

[Dekes For Days]

I didn't post any stats....

No, just made a false claim about them without bothering to do the research.

@Dekes For Days is the one who posted gfx stats...

I posted GF/60 statistics. I don't know what "gfx stats" are. Graphics stats?

I could, what site do you use? Fair to speculate that Marners stats away from Matthews are worse than Matthews stats away from Marner considering you don't want to post them?

I used Naturalstattrick. I posted the stats that were relevant to your claim - Matthews/Marner together, and Matthews away from Marner. I'm not really interested in doing your irrelevant research for you so that you can make bad arguments against Marner.

 

[Antropovsky]

No, just made a false claim about them without bothering to do the research.

I posted GF/60 statistics. I don't know what "gfx stats" are. Graphics stats?

I used Naturalstattrick. I posted the stats that were relevant to your claim - Matthews/Marner together, and Matthews away from Marner. I'm not really interested in doing your irrelevant research for you so that you can make bad arguments against Marner.

Have you heard of xgf or xga

 

[Dekes For Days]

Have you heard of xgf/60 or xga/60?

Yes, and not only did I not post them, they are xGF/60 and xGA/60 stats, not "gfx stats".

 

[Antropovsky]

Yes, and not only did I not post them, they are xGF/60 and xGA/60 stats, not "gfx stats".

Even professionals at work sending emails don't expect the level of perfection you do on a hobby message board. It makes me question whether you've graduated high school, or have a real job. It's laughable.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Even professionals at work sending emails don't expect the level of perfection you do on a hobby message board.

I don't expect perfection, but if you're going to make snarky posts, false claims, and then tag me and talk about the statistics I posted literally a few posts prior, and you not only refer to the wrong statistic, but also refer to the wrong statistic in the wrong way, don't be surprised when you're corrected. That's not expecting perfection. That's expecting literally the bare minimum, and the fact that you're choosing to lash out instead of just acknowledging your mistake and moving on really says it all.

 

[Antropovsky]

I don't expect perfection, but if you're going to make snarky posts, false claims, and then tag me and talk about the statistics I posted literally a few posts prior, and you not only refer to the wrong statistic, but also refer to the wrong statistic in the wrong way, don't be surprised when you're corrected. That's not expecting perfection. That's expecting literally the bare minimum, and the fact that you're choosing to lash out instead of just acknowledging your mistake and moving on really says it all.

Snarky posts and false claims? Where? Can you explain these snarky and false claims...because I see you focused entirely on a small grammatical error.

Let's talk hockey... there are plenty of grammar forums for you to join if that is your passion.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Let's talk hockey...

Note how you've isolated a comment simply correcting a mistake that you made when referring to my posting of stats, and deflected away from talking about hockey, because when we were talking about hockey, you made a false claim about Matthews producing better away from Marner and it was called out. I'd very much like to get back to talking about hockey.

 

[Antropovsky]

Note how you've isolated a comment simply correcting a mistake that you made when referring to my posting of stats, and deflected away from talking about hockey, because when we were talking about hockey, you made a false claim about Matthews producing better away from Marner and it was called out. I'd very much like to get back to talking about hockey.

You were asked to post stats showing Marner away from Matthews vs with (because you posted other stats showing Matthews away from Marner).. you've proceeded to attack grammar and refuse to post the stats ever since.

If you want to talk hockey - why not just post the stats instead of making a huge issue out of it? Why were you so please don't post the Matthews stats but so bothered by being aked for the Marner ones?

 

[Hockey 4 Life]

I think the Leafs have to wait and see what they have in regards to goaltending before they go all in. They also need to make a small move or two to sign Sandin and be cap compliant. Once both of those scenarios are complete they can isolate their biggest weakness and swing for the fences. Preferably they target someone who fits the cores age and has a contract beyond this season.

 

[Dekes For Days]

You were asked to post stats showing Marner away from Matthews vs with (because you posted other stats showing Matthews away from Marner)..

I posted the stats of Matthews away from Marner because it was directly relevant to your claim. If you want additional stats, you can look yourself. I've already given you the site I used.

 

[Antropovsky]

I posted the stats of Matthews away from Marner because it was directly relevant to your claim. If you want additional stats, you can look yourself. I've already given you the site I used.

Sure, i did - Marner's GF/60 was quite heavily affected by playing with Matthews (in both the two seasons they've been on the same line), while Matthews GF/60 was less effected when Marner was not on his line. Why do you think this is?

 

[Dekes For Days]

Marner's GF/60 was quite heavily effected by playing with Matthews, while Matthews GF/60 was less effected when Marner was not on his line.

Both Matthews and Marner saw significant drops in GF/60 when not playing with the other, relative to when they played together (where they created arguably the best line in the league).

Of course, some of that has to do with the mishmash of non-ideal and non-offensive situations that are being patchworked together to create the "away from each other" samples, and any difference between the two players would primarily be a result of their unique situations and normal variations in conversion rates in small samples. Obviously, trying to draw conclusions about the individual players based on a minor discrepancy in one surface level outcome in the "away from" samples would be ridiculous, but I'm sure you know that.

 

[Antropovsky]

Both Matthews and Marner saw significant drops in GF/60 when not playing with the other, relative to when they played together (where they created arguably the best line in the league).

Of course, some of that has to do with the mishmash of non-ideal and non-offensive situations that are being patchworked together to create the "away from each other" samples, and any difference between the two players would primarily be a result of their unique situations and normal variations in conversion rates in small samples. Obviously, trying to draw conclusions about the individual players based on a minor discrepancy in one surface level outcome in the "away from" samples would be ridiculous, but I'm sure you know that.

Marners gf/60 was effected much more than Matthews, from being apart (specifically the year before this one, but this one too).. as for the rest of your post, sounds like your making another excuse for stats that appear negative to your bias. Your comments are pure speculation. Do you have hard facts to support your argument?

 

[Dekes For Days]

Marners gf/60 was effected much more than Matthews, from being apart (specifically the year before this one, but this one too).. as for the rest of your post, sounds like your making another excuse for stats that appear negative to your bias. Your comments are pure speculation. Do you have hard facts to support your argument?

Lol. The guy making yet another non-Marner thread all bout his dislike of Marner is accusing others of having bias. The guy that made a false claim about Marner because he didn't bother to do the research is accusing others of using speculation instead of hard facts, even though I'm the one that countered your speculation with the hard facts that you're now using incorrectly. Thanks for the laugh.

Both Matthews and Marner saw significant drops in GF/60 when not playing with the other, relative to when they played together (where they created arguably the best line in the league). Nobody who understands how to utilize these statistics would ever try to draw conclusions about a player based on one contextless surface level outcome in the "away from" sample that represents a tiny portion of their overall time.

We know the "away" samples are a mishmash because Matthews-Marner spent the majority of their time together, and there are no other regular line combinations featuring these players. We can see from the line combinations and their deployment measures that these were not the same type of situations that they were deployed in together. We can also see that Marner's "away" deployment skewed more to the defensive side than Matthews, which would explain some of the discrepancy. No doubt some of this is a result of Marner being out there after PKs in defensive situations, before Matthews gets to come out fresh with a loaded offensive combination while Marner is resting from the PK - something we see Keefe do a lot. Conversion rates are going to inherently fluctuate in small samples like these in any situation - it's just a part of hockey, and we can see that their line conversion is extremely abnormal in these samples for both of them. We can see that a big part of the GF discrepancy comes down to Marner seeing a bigger discrepancy in the away sample between his xGF and GF (-0.58 vs. -0.21).

Matthews is a better player than Marner, and arguably the best player in the world, so it wouldn't exactly be a surprise if he did perform slightly better when separated, but that doesn't change the fact that Marner is also one of the best players in the world, and these arguments you're attempting to make are horrible.

 

[Antropovsky]

Lol. The guy making yet another non-Marner thread all bout his dislike of Marner is accusing others of having bias. The guy that made a false claim about Marner because he didn't bother to do the research is accusing others of using speculation instead of hard facts, even though I'm the one that countered your speculation with the hard facts that you're now using incorrectly. Thanks for the laugh.

Both Matthews and Marner saw significant drops in GF/60 when not playing with the other, relative to when they played together (where they created arguably the best line in the league). Nobody who understands how to utilize these statistics would ever try to draw conclusions about a player based on one contextless surface level outcome in the "away from" sample that represents a tiny portion of their overall time.

We know the "away" samples are a mishmash because Matthews-Marner spent the majority of their time together, and there are no other regular line combinations featuring these players. We can see from the line combinations and their deployment measures that these were not the same type of situations that they were deployed in together. We can also see that Marner's "away" deployment skewed more to the defensive side than Matthews, which would explain some of the discrepancy. No doubt some of this is a result of Marner being out there after PKs in defensive situations, before Matthews gets to come out fresh with a loaded offensive combination while Marner is resting from the PK - something we see Keefe do a lot. Conversion rates are going to inherently fluctuate in small samples like these in any situation - it's just a part of hockey, and we can see that their line conversion is extremely abnormal in these samples for both of them. We can see that a big part of the GF discrepancy comes down to Marner seeing a bigger discrepancy in the away sample between his xGF and GF (-0.58 vs. -0.21).

Matthews is a better player than Marner, and arguably the best player in the world, so it wouldn't exactly be a surprise if he did perform slightly better when separated, but that doesn't change the fact that Marner is also one of the best players in the world, and these arguments you're attempting to make are horrible.

Horrible arguments... weren't you the one who posted xgf to show that Matthews produces more with marner than without... but when asked to show both their stats without each other to see who is more effected without the other... instead of posting the stats you through a hissy fit and said the sample sizes are too small?

Why weren't the sample sizes too small when you wanted to show how Mathews produced more with Marner than without?? Your the LOL around here.

 

[rocketman588]

The Habs have a 5th round pick good enough to be on a line with bedard in the upcoming world juniors (admittedly a watered down edition however) and we're jerking ourselves happy over Curtis Douglas