News Article: Why the Blackhawks could be major players for Mikko Rantanen, others this offseason

[Taze em]

With Eliotte Friedman talking about giant jumps in Cap upcoming and NBA style Cap smoothing, we need to get out of this 2010-2020 mindset on nickle and diming a roster together. For better and worse you need to switch to thinking NBA-style. It's actually a kind of dangerous time for the Hawks, teams can afford their elite forwards in a 10% cap increase per year environment. If a guy shakes loose you have to try. Have to.

 

[Hull2Roenick2Kane]

what comes off the books this year? almost 20 mil? what needs to be replaced? a couple of wingers and a center? Korchinski or Lev should be able to replace Martinez next year possibly? Will Cole Guttman get another shot? if most of the pieces leaving can be replaced(in house) then that's a lot of money to toss at one player.

 

[MHO]

what comes off the books this year? almost 20 mil? what needs to be replaced? a couple of wingers and a center? Korchinski or Lev should be able to replace Martinez next year possibly? Will Cole Guttman get another shot? if most of the pieces leaving can be replaced(in house) then that's a lot of money to toss at one player.

They currently have ~$5M in cap space with the cap at $88.5M. The best estimate now is that the cap next year goes up to $95M and there is about ~$11M coming off the books in simply dead money spent (Rantanen, Athanasiou, McCabe, and Bailey). Then another $11M comes off with Kurashev, Smith, Maroon, Donato, and Martinez.

So that would give them ~$33.5M in cap space going into next year with 10 forwards, 6 defensemen (including brodie), and 2 goalies signed. Crevier, Kaiser, and Soderblom probably get $5-6M between them as RFAs so they'll have $28M in cap space for 3 forwards assuming they don't trade anyone or buy anyone out. They can also give Savoie or Guttman a chance to fill out the roster but yeah, they should definitely spend.

They just gotta be careful because Bedard, Nazar, and Korchinski will be due for raises at the end of next season and more ELC's end the year after that. So if they can go apeshit on some short term deals, I'd love it. I also wouldn't mind Rantanen getting 7 X $14M either with a continuing rising cap.

 

[WarriorofTime]

what comes off the books this year? almost 20 mil? what needs to be replaced? a couple of wingers and a center? Korchinski or Lev should be able to replace Martinez next year possibly? Will Cole Guttman get another shot? if most of the pieces leaving can be replaced(in house) then that's a lot of money to toss at one player.

Donato, Maroon, Smith, Athanasiou are UFA. Kurashev is RFA. Some other free agents at AHL level, including Guttman who is RFA.

Martinez is UFA. Crevier and Kaiser are RFA.

Soderblom is RFA. Mrazek and Broissoit are both signed for one more year.

I'd like to see Guttman get one more chance to kick the tire around there. I don't think Kurashev is going to be back. I'm not sure about Kaiser, but I think he'd be more likely to be traded than just unqualified. I'd expect Crevier back. They'll probably look to move one of the goalies in order to re-sign Soderblom to a backup goalie contract.

Donato is only UFA who is maybe re-signed if not traded before the deadline.

Foligno, Dickinson, Mikheyev, Murphy, Brodie, Mrazek and Broissoit will all be vets heading into the last year of their deal, and then a boatload of RFAs to be, Bedard, Nazar, Reichel, Dach, Allan, Del Mastro, Korchinski, and Commesso at AHL level (so should decide at that point if he's part of the future or not). So that summer is going to be a bit of a spending spree as is.

So I don't necessarily agree that just because cap space is overly plentiful right now, the Hawks shouldn't have an eye on. The big ticket free agents this summer are in a semi-weird spot where they'll get the benefit of the rising cap on their contracts but a lot of their peers will still have multiple years left on their flat cap deals. So they're not going to be overly desirable in the short terms as whomever gets them is going to be jealous looking at teams that are getting better bang for their buck on UFA deals, and then once you turn the halfway point on the deals, it starts to be a question of to what extent they age and if they're still useful players in their primes.

You also worry about the "internal cap" on the perspective of RFAs. It's easier to get good young guys locked in at 8 years at a reasonable percentage coming off their ELCs if they don't see a guy only as good or worse on their team making top 5 player money.

 

[Bubba88]

There will be no dead Cap Hit after the season (as of now). Hawks will have plenty of Cap Space and the year after will get even more with Foligno, Dickinson, Mikheyev, Murphy, Mrazek and Brodie coming off.

That said, if you have a chance to sign a 100+ point player in Rantanen or Marner you do. If McDavid hits the market you go after him and worry about all that other stuff later.

 

[Castle8130]

Most off-seasons don't have this many big names as UFAs. You have no idea how long it will be until we get another shot like this. The cap is also probably much higher by the next time there are UFAs this good. Our prospect pool is great. Lets start taking our shots

 

[Crow]

I went into the year thinking marner might be a good buy low candidate if he had a mediocre year and another underwhelming playoff but he’s been anything but mediocre. Maybe he’ll have a shit playoff and be available. I don’t really like any of the other guys as a fit.

 

[Beukeboom Fan]

Rantanen is a big dude, will he fall-0ff in his early 30's like most big wingers?
The only real outliers are Jagr and Ovechkin. All the other great, big wingers fell off pretty hard. Shanahan, Leclair, Andreychuk, etc.

I'd love to see Boeser on Bedard's wing but I don't know what the cap hit would look like.

Just IMO, but Rantanen is a much better skater than the guys you list who didn't age well. That said, I do think that Marner will age better over a long term deal.

If you have a chance, you lock that type of player down. If you can get a Rantenen or MM, you don't pass on them for a 1% chance at McDavid.

 

[MHO]

I'm starting to change my mind on the big UFAs. Rantanen, while is amazing now, doesn't profile as a winger who will age well so I wouldn't want to give him the 7 X 14M it would take to get him to sign here. Marner hasn't shown well in the playoffs so I'm not crazy about breaking the bank for him either. Now the Hawks will have to spend to get to the floor and I'd be cool going after the secondary guys like Ehlers or Boeser, etc.

I'd also like to see if they could go crazy with guys like Tavares or Duchene and see if they'd sign for like 1 year and $12M. But I really think it would be best before committing to anyone long term to give the prospects one more year of developing and see what you have. Another year of data will be very beneficial to see how good certain guys are, how much they will likely cost to resign, and what holes you might have.

Then in 2026, go nuts after Kaprizov, McDavid (probably not), Necas, Connor, etc. We probably won't need to overpay as much anyway as the team will likely be looking a lot better.

 

[Drumman44]

What's with all the late breaking votes for Marner? Wouldn't you rather a 6'4" body (who is a playoff performer) on Bedard's wing?

 

[Muffinalt]

What's with all the late breaking votes for Marner? Wouldn't you rather a 6'4" body (who is a playoff performer) on Bedard's wing?

I'd prefer defense, speed and skill to be honest.

 

[WarriorofTime]

What's with all the late breaking votes for Marner? Wouldn't you rather a 6'4" body (who is a playoff performer) on Bedard's wing?

Marner more likely to age better

 

[belfour30]

For everyone who is anti big game hunting for an elite player that costs you no assets… when will be the right time for you

When the core shows promise at the NHL level. When there are multiple players not named Bedard that KD drafted that show they can play.

 

[Hull2Roenick2Kane]

do any of you guys think Crevier will get a contract like Vlasic did at the end of last year or maybe even Nazar? Hopefully Bedard will get an extention out of the way. 8 year 90mil range would be fantastic... not sure he would sign for that though.

So that would give them ~$33.5M in cap space going into next year with 10 forwards, 6 defensemen

3 forwards assuming they don't trade anyone or buy anyone out. They can also give Savoie or Guttman a chance to fill out the roster but yeah, they should definitely spend.

They just gotta be careful because Bedard, Nazar, and Korchinski will be due for raises at the end of next season and more ELC's end the year after that. So if they can go apeshit on some short term deals, I'd love it. I also wouldn't mind Rantanen getting 7 X $14M either with a continuing rising cap.

say there are 3-4 forward slots that need to be filled, and hypothetically with all those extensions given out how much cash do you guys think will be available? 15 mil?

 

[Cullksinikers]

The Blackhawks are in no position to be turning down upper-echelon NHL talent. Timelines go out the window when it comes to fantastic players under 30.

They're going to draft in the top 3-5 again this year (conservatively). You just took Levshunov second. How much longer do we need to be cellar dwellers?

If Rantanen and/or Marner want to come, you sign the first guy of two that's willing to put his pen to paper. Rantanen is 29. There will be plenty in the tank when this team is ready to compete, and he's a proven guy in the playoffs. It also lifts the spirits of the young core (mainly Bedard and Vlasic) that the front office is trying to aggressively get out of the cellar.

The Blackhawks are an incredibly profitable team, and the Cap is going up. By three years from now, I think you can pretty comfortably pay three or four guys $10M+ AAV. You easily could at the end of one of these 7-year deals (unless you deal for their rights and go 8).

I'm not saying this will happen (almost certainly won't), but you could extend Bedard and bring in Rantanen, Marner, and Kaprizov if you really, really wanted to and they all three (for some reason) wanted to play in Chicago.

 

[belfour30]

The Blackhawks are in no position to be turning down upper-echelon NHL talent. Timelines go out the window when it comes to fantastic players under 30.

They're going to draft in the top 3-5 again this year (conservatively). You just took Levshunov second. How much longer do we need to be cellar dwellers?

If Rantanen and/or Marner want to come, you sign the first guy of two that's willing to put his pen to paper. Rantanen is 29. There will be plenty in the tank when this team is ready to compete, and he's a proven guy in the playoffs. It also lifts the spirits of the young core (mainly Bedard and Vlasic) that the front office is trying to aggressively get out of the cellar.

The Blackhawks are an incredibly profitable team, and the Cap is going up. By three years from now, I think you can pretty comfortably pay three or four guys $10M+ AAV. You easily could at the end of one of these 7-year deals (unless you deal for their rights and go 8).

I'm not saying this will happen (almost certainly won't), but you could extend Bedard and bring in Rantanen, Marner, and Kaprizov if you really, really wanted to and they all three (for some reason) wanted to play in Chicago.

They need at least another elite forward through the draft. Preferably two

 

[kmwtrucks]

how they handle Soda and Crev this year as RFA could be interesting

as I read it SODA is RFA 2 more years and Crev is 3 more. the real question is do you sign them longer or shorter. IE 1 year deal for SODA and 2 year for Crev and then deal with ARB rights or go longer. I tend to think longer. I know historical teams don't give terms to backups or bottom pairing guys but there is less risk then that compared to middle paring and Avg starters. the Buried threshold is 1.150 so you can bury about 1/3 of the below.
Arvid 1 year at $2 Crev 2 year at $1.5
Arvid 3 year at 2.5-3 Crev 4 year at $2-$2.5
Arvid 4 year at $3-$4 Crev 5 year at $2.5-$3

 

[WarriorofTime]

Crevier has played 45 NHL games. What's the risk of just a 2 year bridge? He's not going to put up big points that require a big $ commitment on the other end of it.

 

[MHO]

The Blackhawks are in no position to be turning down upper-echelon NHL talent. Timelines go out the window when it comes to fantastic players under 30.

They're going to draft in the top 3-5 again this year (conservatively). You just took Levshunov second. How much longer do we need to be cellar dwellers?

If Rantanen and/or Marner want to come, you sign the first guy of two that's willing to put his pen to paper. Rantanen is 29. There will be plenty in the tank when this team is ready to compete, and he's a proven guy in the playoffs. It also lifts the spirits of the young core (mainly Bedard and Vlasic) that the front office is trying to aggressively get out of the cellar.

The Blackhawks are an incredibly profitable team, and the Cap is going up. By three years from now, I think you can pretty comfortably pay three or four guys $10M+ AAV. You easily could at the end of one of these 7-year deals (unless you deal for their rights and go 8).

I'm not saying this will happen (almost certainly won't), but you could extend Bedard and bring in Rantanen, Marner, and Kaprizov if you really, really wanted to and they all three (for some reason) wanted to play in Chicago.

Just remember how bringing in Campbell and Huet too early cost them keeping Ladd, Byfugien, and Versteeg.

 

[Taze em]

Just remember how bringing in Campbell and Huet too early cost them keeping Ladd, Byfugien, and Versteeg.

Flat cap vs astronomically increasing cap.

 

[Clownish]

Crevier has played 45 NHL games. What's the risk of just a 2 year bridge? He's not going to put up big points that require a big $ commitment on the other end of it.

Why not lock him up for 4 years?

 

[southsideIrish]

The Blackhawks are in no position to be turning down upper-echelon NHL talent. Timelines go out the window when it comes to fantastic players under 30.

They're going to draft in the top 3-5 again this year (conservatively). You just took Levshunov second. How much longer do we need to be cellar dwellers?

If Rantanen and/or Marner want to come, you sign the first guy of two that's willing to put his pen to paper. Rantanen is 29. There will be plenty in the tank when this team is ready to compete, and he's a proven guy in the playoffs. It also lifts the spirits of the young core (mainly Bedard and Vlasic) that the front office is trying to aggressively get out of the cellar.

The Blackhawks are an incredibly profitable team, and the Cap is going up. By three years from now, I think you can pretty comfortably pay three or four guys $10M+ AAV. You easily could at the end of one of these 7-year deals (unless you deal for their rights and go 8).

I'm not saying this will happen (almost certainly won't), but you could extend Bedard and bring in Rantanen, Marner, and Kaprizov if you really, really wanted to and they all three (for some reason) wanted to play in Chicago.

Agreed, they need to do something. Too many fans think sitting on picks or tanking and hoping you draft elite talent - which doesn't always blossom into NHL talent, will eventually make you good by itself.

I've said before they've gone 10 years since a legit playoff series win, that's inexcusable for a team with the Hawks pedigree. So is rotting in the cellar year after year. I know many longtime ticketholders that are frustrated, despite the promise of Bedard, etc. Other teams in the NHL have turned things around much faster, using various means.

Your point on lifting the spirits of the young guys is an excellent one. How much longer will they be happy playing with mediocre stiffs who are just picking up a check? ESPN's half season awards article referred to the Hawks as a floundering bottle rocket, not knowing what direction to go. It was pretty spot on and also made the point that Bedard will be unhappy before long.

Spend some money guys.

 

[x Tame Impala]

Agreed, they need to do something. Too many fans think sitting on picks or tanking and hoping you draft elite talent - which doesn't always blossom into NHL talent, will eventually make you good by itself.

I've said before they've gone 10 years since a legit playoff series win, that's inexcusable for a team with the Hawks pedigree. So is rotting in the cellar year after year. I know many longtime ticketholders that are frustrated, despite the promise of Bedard, etc. Other teams in the NHL have turned things around much faster, using various means.

Your point on lifting the spirits of the young guys is an excellent one. How much longer will they be happy playing with mediocre stiffs who are just picking up a check? ESPN's half season awards article referred to the Hawks as a floundering bottle rocket, not knowing what direction to go. It was pretty spot on and also made the point that Bedard will be unhappy before long.

Spend some money guys.

Do you have zero patience? Who are these teams that "quickly" turned things around? It certainly wasn't the Panthers, Avalanche, Lightning, Penguins, or Blackhawks of the last 20 years.

Rebuilds take a long time. Bowman royally screwed this team by not acknowledging a rebuild was necessary sooner. He signed Jones and Fleury, thinking they along with mid-30's Toews & Kane, Debrincat, and Strome were going to turn us into a contender again.

 

[Wally1112pac]

Rebuilds take a long time. Bowman royally screwed this team by not acknowledging a rebuild was necessary sooner. He signed Jones and Fleury, thinking they along with mid-30's Toews & Kane, Debrincat, and Strome were going to turn us into a contender again.

Notice how there is only 1 Dman named. Replace Keith, Seabrook and Hammer with Jones..

The wheels fell off the Dynasty when the D died.

Contrast that with today. We are stacked with young D prospects. They are all a lot more talented than Mitchell, Crys and Joker. When they gain traction in the NHL, we will be back.

 

[southsideIrish]

Do you have zero patience? Who are these teams that "quickly" turned things around? It certainly wasn't the Panthers, Avalanche, Lightning, Penguins, or Blackhawks of the last 20 years.

Rebuilds take a long time. Bowman royally screwed this team by not acknowledging a rebuild was necessary sooner. He signed Jones and Fleury, thinking they along with mid-30's Toews & Kane, Debrincat, and Strome were going to turn us into a contender again.

Sure, patience. Well that's one thing Chicago sports fans have in spades these days right?

Hawks - as I said, zero playoff series wins in ten years.
Bears - since the 06 SB run, one solitary playoff win and that was 15 years ago.
Bulls - Five playoff series wins this century, only one past the 1st round and zip the last 10 years.
Sox - 3 playoff wins (games, not series) since the WS - and icing on the cake, a historically bad team last year.
Cubs - ironically the most "successful" here. WS win in 2016. One playoff win since and nothing in 7 years.

It's amazing how the major pro teams in this city go years and years being garbage. How much patience should fans have? Sure seeing Bedard do awesome things here and there is great. Between those though they're getting pushed all over the ice, getting outshot 39-16, outhit, outworked most nights and hoping the goalie bails them out. It's boring and embarrassing and isn't good for Bedard & co.

Let's just say I'm way past the "hey they'll be good in 2-3 years....maybe" stuff. You mentioned Strome and Debrincat - two examples of good young Hawks players that were dumped and are now playing very well for other teams. This team is a mess - if you're happy with things ok. Lots of fans aren't and even people that cover the sport aren't sure what the Hawks plan is. The Rantanen deal was a perfect example. I said the other night the best grade I saw the Hawks get on that was a C. Most were worse than that.

That's enough venting for now.