Why have the Leafs stopped drafting Canadian players since 2018?
- Thread starter Peiskos
- Start date
-
Xenforo Cloud will be upgrading us to version 2.3.5 on March 3rd at 12 AM GMT. This version has increased stability and fixes several bugs. We expect downtime for the duration of the update. The admin team will continue to work on existing issues, templates and upgrade all necessary available addons to minimize impact of this new version. Click Here for Updates
SeaOfBlue
The Passion That Unites Us All
- Aug 1, 2013
- 35,591
- 16,777
Durzi is Canadian anyways.
One could argue some of the Russian picks we made could have been better spent on players of other nationalities (including Canadians). We are not the only ones, but a lot of NHL teams fall for the trap of these really mediocre Russians who never even cross the pond because they are never good enough to justify it. Amirov, for the most part, is the only one I think that was truly justifiable. Maybe Ovchinnikov too, since Covid ruined his best opportunity to showcase himself (WJC).
You could maybe say Massimo Rizzo over Kalle Loponen? I had Rizzo over Loponen that year and Rizzo is a decent prospect for Carolina. He was a 4th/5th round type prospect for me so he would have been good value in the 7th. Other than that, I am not seeing any 2019 Canadians making me regret not taking them.
In 2020, no regrets about Niemela/Hirvonen. I had various players over Akhtyamov, but we did get one of the Canadians that I had ranked over him anyways (Villeneuve) and the others are not exactly high end prospects in their own right. Maybe better than Akhtyamov, but hardly anything the Leafs need to worry about with their draft record. Same with Ovchinnikov, but the list was mostly just Isaak Phillips and William Dufour. I would have taken McClennon or Bjorklund (or many others) over Rindell. Ronan Seeley was also a Canadian I had in the top 125 who I would have easily taken over Fusco or Rindell. No surprise that he too went to Carolina in the 7th round. Theo Rochette and Ethan Cardwell (who ultimately went in the 4th round in 2021) were the only undrafted Canadians I had in my top 125 in 2020, and I too would have taken either over some of the guys we selected. A few of the later round targets I had who ultimately were drafted or signed were Ryker Evans, Josh Pillar, Taylor Gauthier, and Xavier Simoneau.
In 2021, the main one for me would probably be taking Vrbetic over Peksa. I was also on the fence about Tyson Kozek but I had other guys ranked higher than him from outside of Canada. I have no complaints about Voit or Knies. The top 125 guys who went undrafted from Canada were Jacob Guevin, Eric Alarie, Trevor Wong, and Peter Reynolds. None of them really had great D+1 years anyways, and Graham Sward is the only late round target I am considering with a late round pick again in 2022.
Between Covid and the fact that you only get rights for 2 years with CHL players, it is not really attractive to draft non-NCAA bound Canadians in the later rounds. The ones good enough to likely develop into an ELC-caliber prospect within 2 years are likely gone by the 4th or 5th round, so short of a surprise faller like Seeley or McClennon, you are better off taking chances on Euros or NCAAers to maximize your chances.
The Devilish Buffoon
Registered User
- Dec 24, 2018
- 12,978
- 11,820
Leafs have more resources to scout overseas and in lower level leagues. Plus I am guessing if a few things fell differently (i.e a guy they like falling), they would have happily drafted more Canadians.
Woodman19
Registered User
- Jun 14, 2008
- 18,704
- 2,272
I don't know if its racism for fans to want local players to play for the Leafs, it adds that extra motivation to win. But I like the fact that the Leafs are on the ball with what I have been seeing the last 20 years, the USA is growing and surpassing Canada as a hockey producing nation and we seem to be very conscious of that fact and tapping into it proactively.
I don’t think that’s true in terms of most of the great Canadian prospects are gone. A lot of good current NHL players have been drafted in rounds 3, 4 and 5. I do think there is some truth to the fact that the leafs typically do different to Europe or USHL compared to the CHL. That simply is because of where our most trusted scouts are based out of. Which is the US, Russia and Scandinavia (Sweden).
I don’t think it’s a bad thing we’ve been hitting regardless, but I think people are comparing to Tampa who has gone pretty. CHL heavy and has had success
I don't know about you guys, but to me that list has a lot of players who have had and will likely have no NHL hockey in their lives.
Almost as if drafting in rounds 3-7 is an absolute crap-shoot and unlikely to generate any meaningful players for your club.
Almost as if drafting in rounds 3-7 is an absolute crap-shoot and unlikely to generate any meaningful players for your club.
Be careful .. skills yes USA is producing players with better skills .. but TO still produces better hockey players overall with compete .. I have seen it thousands of times teams with great skill who get crushed by TO teams who outcompete and out hockey sense them and then da skill gives up by 3rd period .. speed, power and hockey smarts still win hockey games .. when puck drops 20 Canadian trained players BEAT 20 USA trained players almost all da time when it matters
A lot of that has to do with Ex Canadian players settling in America. Their kids are becoming stars and really talented. Most of those kids are dual citizens but obviously more tied to USA Hockey as they live in the US so they are more American than Canadian even though they are descendants of Canadians.
Nylanderthal
Registered User
- Jun 9, 2010
- 7,901
- 6,252
Stop looking to a dinosaur like don cherry to get advice on the current game, once upon a time the leafs also drafted three guys from the same OHL team with three consecutive first round picks, in the same draft.
Lol only TO produces winners? Lmaooooooo
Last edited:
keonsbitterness
Registered User
Mr Bill Waters
iq >170? then lower your tone when @ing me
Judging by some of the comments around here the last couple of days, this is the type of glory some fans are wanting to return to.
tmlms13
Registered User
tmlms13
Registered User
If we go down the path of trying to be nationalistic we'll become Montreal when they would only hire French canadians and biased in drafting from the Q
Or Edmonton where a job requirement was to be a player on one of the 80's teams.
Take the best player available. I don't care if they live in f***ing Antartica if they're good at hockey take them
Or Edmonton where a job requirement was to be a player on one of the 80's teams.
Take the best player available. I don't care if they live in f***ing Antartica if they're good at hockey take them
So he used the lack of Canadians as the reason we lost again? There were 13 players from Ontario alone on the playoff roster...
Two variables: market inefficiency and lack of draft picks.
Dubas has traded a lot of picks (first and second rounders) over the years. Therefore, the scouts have to make the most optimum picks with later round picks.
Canadian junior leagues tend to be the most heavily scouted leagues as the hockey is high level for teenagers and nhl teams can exert some influence over junior teams. When comparing draft lists, i would think that in terms of canadian junior players, the best ones tend to be further up teams’ lists. As the leafs don’t have the best picks, these players tend not to be available or there are better non-canadian alternatives. The exception was in 2020 when amirov was drafted over schneider, guehle, mercer, bourque, etc).
Kyle dubas’ MO is finding value. He wants the scouts to find the players with the best skill, iq, and skating. Players can be overlooked for many reasons. Think moneyball. He rejects cognitive bias’ such as size (robertson, abbruzzese, hirvonen) and sickness (knies). If he does avoid drafting canadians, it is because the canadians available by the time the leafs are selecting probably, according to him, provide less value than what is available. You have to keep in mind that other teams assign fewer scouts in europe or european scouts are given less of a voice or there is that stereotype that europeans are soft. E.g, thommie bergman, our best scout, asked dubas for a 6th round pick to select pontus holmberg.
One benefit of drafting europeans is that they play against men or have the option to pretty early. It’s usually either u20 or liiga/khl/shl. With canadian leagues, it’s either ncaa or ohl until 20. Leafs could even send players to ahl early if the player is ok with it (sandin/liljegren).
Tl:dr
What it comes down to is “who is the best player available regardless of what shortcomings they have.” The best canadian players tend to be at the top of every team’s lists. There are more market inefficiencies in euro leagues as leafs have more scouts and resources.
Dubas has traded a lot of picks (first and second rounders) over the years. Therefore, the scouts have to make the most optimum picks with later round picks.
Canadian junior leagues tend to be the most heavily scouted leagues as the hockey is high level for teenagers and nhl teams can exert some influence over junior teams. When comparing draft lists, i would think that in terms of canadian junior players, the best ones tend to be further up teams’ lists. As the leafs don’t have the best picks, these players tend not to be available or there are better non-canadian alternatives. The exception was in 2020 when amirov was drafted over schneider, guehle, mercer, bourque, etc).
Kyle dubas’ MO is finding value. He wants the scouts to find the players with the best skill, iq, and skating. Players can be overlooked for many reasons. Think moneyball. He rejects cognitive bias’ such as size (robertson, abbruzzese, hirvonen) and sickness (knies). If he does avoid drafting canadians, it is because the canadians available by the time the leafs are selecting probably, according to him, provide less value than what is available. You have to keep in mind that other teams assign fewer scouts in europe or european scouts are given less of a voice or there is that stereotype that europeans are soft. E.g, thommie bergman, our best scout, asked dubas for a 6th round pick to select pontus holmberg.
One benefit of drafting europeans is that they play against men or have the option to pretty early. It’s usually either u20 or liiga/khl/shl. With canadian leagues, it’s either ncaa or ohl until 20. Leafs could even send players to ahl early if the player is ok with it (sandin/liljegren).
Tl:dr
What it comes down to is “who is the best player available regardless of what shortcomings they have.” The best canadian players tend to be at the top of every team’s lists. There are more market inefficiencies in euro leagues as leafs have more scouts and resources.
SeaOfBlue
The Passion That Unites Us All
- Aug 1, 2013
- 35,591
- 16,777
Even the Leafs are still figuring out Russia, but they do seem to have Finland and Sweden figured out (for the most part) at least.
The leafs ‘ russian amateur scouts seem to have too much influence. Korshkov, kara were such weird picks. The conversion rate for leafs drafting in russia is quite bad. Even if one omits amirov, the closest thing to a hit might be ovchinnikov. Interestingly, we haven’t picked a swede since 2018 even though leafs have done so well there, but then again, there’s probably not a market inefficiency there.
I think the russian development program regresses badly after the mhl unless a surefire prospect gets consistent khl time. The czechia league may be the new market inefficiency.
If you were out and about rinks across Toronto and occasionally Boston, Michigan and Chicago for over 25+ years of coaching/watching elite level players from 6 to 20+ in both winter and spring tournaments then you might have some appreciation for what I said .. Da Matty, Eichel, Mitch, McJesus, TK, Crouse, Stromey, Domi, Paul, Bracco, McLeod etc all played in them whether Ronald McD, Mission, Beanpot, Quebec, LC, etc etc .. TO doesn't win every one of course but da vast majority of them YES
Nylanderthal
Registered User
- Jun 9, 2010
- 7,901
- 6,252
DraftSchmaft
Registered User
- Jul 29, 2021
- 2,350
- 2,936
acrobaticgoalie
Registered User
- Jun 18, 2014
- 3,468
- 3,561
Shocker that Cherry thinks we need to draft more Canadians. Don't know why anyone still pays attention to him.
We are drafting for skill and upside. There is no bias against certain countries and there is no bias against size. If they have the projectable skills like skating, stick handling, and hockey IQ, we take them. If they have the size to go with it (Knies), BONUS!!!.
Also, Cherry needs to wake up and realize that all these other countries are catching up to us or even surpassing us like the U.S. Look at some if the recent drafts and you're seeing countries like Switzerland and Germany with players going in the top 10 and we are seeing less Canadians going in the 1st round.
We are drafting for skill and upside. There is no bias against certain countries and there is no bias against size. If they have the projectable skills like skating, stick handling, and hockey IQ, we take them. If they have the size to go with it (Knies), BONUS!!!.
Also, Cherry needs to wake up and realize that all these other countries are catching up to us or even surpassing us like the U.S. Look at some if the recent drafts and you're seeing countries like Switzerland and Germany with players going in the top 10 and we are seeing less Canadians going in the 1st round.
