Why do the Buffalo Sabres (always) keep sucking.. no matter what..

[BFLO]

I could write a book on why they aren't successful this season.

Before diving into the "Why", lets look at what has happened, as many in this thread seem ignorant of how the Sabres have played/looked and their stats.

The defensive play has not improved, despite the narrative some homers are touting. All strengths xGA/60 of 3.46, 26th in the NHL. Last year 3.3, 24th in the NHL. The only forward who got better defensively so far this season is Tage Thompson. Everyone else is worse.

The goaltending has improved, aside from Levi. GA/60 3.24, 20th in the NHL. Last year 3.58, 26th. Despite the team getting worse at allowing shot quality against, they are allowing fewer goals.
Comrie and UPL have been better so far.

Levi looks like an overwhelmed kid way out of his depth. He has made some incredible saves due to his talent, but it's obvious he is lacking in fundamentals and needs a lot of seasoning to become an NHL starter or even a back up. The only person who didn't seem to see this coming was Kevyn Adams.

The offense has disappeared. xGF/60 of 2.77, 30th in the NHL. Last year 3.24, 12th. This year GF/60 of 2.87, 23rd and last year 3.53, 3rd in the NHL. Last year they were good at creating shot quality and were phenomenal at shooting/finishing. This year are 3rd from the bottom at creating shot quality.

The Sabres have played really well in 4 games this season.
4-0 W Avalanche
6-4 W Maples Leafs
3-1 W NYI
3-2 OTL Hurricanes

Played OK
3-2 OTW Lightning

Played like crap, but managed to win anyway through some lucky shooting and/or goaltending standing on it's head
6-4 W Sens
5-2 W Flyers
3-2 W Wild

Got run over
5-1 Rangers
3-2 NYI
4-3 Flames
3-1 MTL
5-4 Devils
5-1 Flyers
4-0 Pens
5-2 Bruins


Now onto WHY.

The Sabres missed the playoffs by 1 point last year. They had 2 streaks where they lost a bunch of games due to not having enough depth to replace injured players. And the goaltending was crap.

I think the GM assumed they didn't actually need to improve much, or at all outside of internal growth to make the playoffs this season, and that sentiment seems to have trickled down through to the coaches and players.

Look at the offseason moves.

Forwards In: Benson(rookie)
Forwards Out: Hinostroza

Defensemen In: Clifton, Eric Johnson, Ryan Johnson(rookie)
Defensemen Out: Lyubushkin, Bryson(moved down the depth chart by the above additions, but is still with the team)

Goalies In: Levi(rookie with no AHL experience)
Goalies Out: Anderson(retired)

That's a team so high on their own supply that they thought all they needed were a few more bottom pairing defensemen to help ride out injuries.

It reeks of an attitude of "we've arrived, no need to improve" from the GM. And that trickled down to the coaches, who made no changes to the staff, and no changes to their systems.

And that trickled down to the players who did not use the time from April to October to improve their games. Seems like many of them were on cottage time for a full 6 months. Why work to improve during the offseason when our coaches and GM clearly think we've already made it?

 

[EpochLink]

Inconsistent goaltending.

 

[DiglettDangles]

Got run over
5-1 Rangers
3-2 NYI
4-3 Flames
3-1 MTL
5-4 Devils
5-1 Flyers
4-0 Pens
5-2 Bruins

What I noticed during that game is how Montreal were having a field day physically.
Xhekaj would run over 2 guys per shift and Buffalo wouldn't do anything about it.
So other guys started playing a power game in full confidence (Anderson, Guhle, etc.).
I think in the end they don't appear to be "scaring" anyone this year.

Even though I have a lot of respect for the current and future forwards on Buffalo, I came out of that game with the clear impression they'd never get anywhere while being baby soft (talking from experience with the 2010's vanilla Habs).

Since you clearly watched more BUF games than I did, is what I described often replicated?

 

[Luck 6]

For teams where they have a very talented core, and the bulk of their core is in their early to mid twenties, it really just takes some time. Buffalo looks so balanced with talent on the back end, and up front, they'll pick it together at some point.

 

[majormajor]

It's a different story each season. This year they have a ton of potential but are not really going for it like I'd hope. I think they've been cheap.

They've filled out their roster with waiver fodder in Jost and Greenway rather than getting good hardworking veterans. A Zach Hyman type player or two would make a big difference there.

No vet goalie and still no RD.

 

[Panthaz89]

It's a different story each season. This year they have a ton of potential but are not really going for it like I'd hope. I think they've been cheap.

They've filled out their roster with waiver fodder in Jost and Greenway rather than getting good hardworking veterans. A Zach Hyman type player or two would make a big difference there.

No vet goalie and still no RD.

Greenway is waiver fodder? In what world

 

[Mattilaus]

It's a different story each season. This year they have a ton of potential but are not really going for it like I'd hope. I think they've been cheap.

They've filled out their roster with waiver fodder in Jost and Greenway rather than getting good hardworking veterans. A Zach Hyman type player or two would make a big difference there.

No vet goalie and still no RD.

Greenway has been one of our most consistent forwards, best defensive forward, and best penalty killer all season. He was sorely needed. I want like 2 more of him.

 

[tucker3434]

My theory based entirely on anecdotal evidence is that accumulating talent is half the battle and the other half getting enough guys that hate to lose. When you go through a rebuild, losing is common. Happens all the time. You've got to break that mindset. Ideally one of the young stars (Dahlin) leads the charge. Sometimes all it takes is one guy to set a very high standard, lead by example, and hold everyone to it.

 

[GeeoffBrown]

Maybe handing out massive 8 year deals to a bunch of young guys who haven't even made the playoffs much less proven themselves in them yet isn't the 4D chess GMing this board seems to think it is.

What's the motivation to get better exactly? To put in the extra hours at the rink, in the gym, in the video room? Just a vague idea that winning would be nice? Everyone thinks winning would be nice, you need to have the edge and the drive to actually get there.

I believe these contracts are a symptom of the salary cap. Without a salary cap, teams might be more prone to reward players for past success instead of trying to predict future success. However, because there's a salary cap and the best performing players are in their mid-20s, it makes sense mathematically for these to be the highest paid players.

I wonder if there are models that compare the performance of RFAs on bridge deals to RFAs who get long deals

 

[avsfan9]

Ralph Krueger?

 

[Bocephus86]

I know the gospel on HFBoards is that young talent is the answer, hence the off season threads about up and coming teams as well as the love of the tank here. I'm sure a part of it is that these teams are great for video game franchises where all players progress every year, and mentality is not a factor.

I think the skill that often gets lost is that winning mentality. Teams that have tanked, have given up and did big sell offs, or have made it clear that the objective 'today' is not to win 'today' introduce a toxic cloud into the organization & room. It breeds a mentality of giving up when its hard today and looking at tomorrow, it dulls focus, it trains the idea that giving it 100% isn't something you need to do all the time.

Removing that mentality is really hard. The players that are involved in these tanks are still the majority of the room even if you have a bunch of prospects all move up at once. Players are human, the vast majority adapt to fit into their surroundings. It takes exceptional leadership to break that mold and stand out. And it takes a willingness of those around those leaders to break their habits and follow.

Some teams have figured it out, like the Avs. But they have a Mackinnon that seems like a guy who can either root out or prevent that atmosphere from fully forming. I think that's why we keep seeing these young hot teams never actually truly make it. The best most teams can really hope for is incremental steps forward each year, identifying players/coaches that are toxic and replacing them, and trying to find/uplift potential leaders. But a lot of them fail at this, and the cycle repeats. Finding that unique combination of true leadership ability & the skill to back it up is REALLY hard.

I don't know enough about the Canucks to know their on ice leaders, and I'd be really curious to hear from their fans on whose those are (though I guess not in this thread to avoid the threadjack).

I'll wrap it up with this: I think that factor that is often ignored is why we see the same teams never taking the next step, and why we see some teams never taking that step back despite all the predictions that 'this is the year.

Edit; But maybe I'm biased because I am a Bruins fan

 

[BFLO]

What I noticed during that game is how Montreal were having a field day physically.
Xhekaj would run over 2 guys per shift and Buffalo wouldn't do anything about it.
So other guys started playing a power game in full confidence (Anderson, Guhle, etc.).
I think in the end they don't appear to be "scaring" anyone this year.

Even though I have a lot of respect for the current and future forwards on Buffalo, I came out of that game with the clear impression they'd never get anywhere while being baby soft (talking from experience with the 2010's vanilla Habs).

Since you clearly watched more BUF games than I did, is what I described often replicated?

Yes, they are extremely soft. They get pushed around or outmatched physically in nearly every game and mostly refuse to go to the "dirty areas" of the ice. I don't really care about their lack of hits, as hits do not correlate to success, but their overall lack of physicality and refusal to go to the dangerous areas of the ice absolutely sink them.

It's a different story each season. This year they have a ton of potential but are not really going for it like I'd hope. I think they've been cheap.

They've filled out their roster with waiver fodder in Jost and Greenway rather than getting good hardworking veterans. A Zach Hyman type player or two would make a big difference there.

No vet goalie and still no RD.

Kind of.

I think it’s more that the Sabres are missing solid veterans in the middle of the line up at forward and defense.

 

[wgknestrick]

Buffalo is a cursed city that can only house choke artist sport teams.

 

[jackjohnson]

Last season was very promising, right? They have been drafting well, also smart trades.
That roster is play-offs quality roster, right?

But once again, they give you the typical Buffalo Sabres season, .. currently 7th in the Atlantic
Only 3 worse teams in East this season so far.

What gives?.. 'cause i don't get it.

Good coaching
Good management
Good roster

Sure its early season but... yeah.

They remind me of Canucks. Growth isn't always linear and they are pretty young. Their young players will get it together after more NHL experience.

 

[jackjohnson]

They literally finished last with all of them

….

Anyway…this is the 13th full season that Terry Pegula has owned the team.

Remind me again what year of missing the playoffs this will be?

There is your answer.

….

Certainly does not help that Kevyn Adams takes a vacation for the entirety of every goddamned off-season.

Lack of patience did them in. Look at the Canucks, at some point Hughes, Boeser and Pettersson were not playing great but we stuck with them even when there were some points in previous years fans wanted to trade them like Boeser. I think you got to be patient with young players. Even Canucks have made mistakes trading McCann and Forsling

 

[TageGod]

That's a team so high on their own supply that they thought all they needed were a few more bottom pairing defensemen to help ride out injuries.

It reeks of an attitude of "we've arrived, no need to improve" from the GM. And that trickled down to the coaches, who made no changes to the staff, and no changes to their systems.

And that trickled down to the players who did not use the time from April to October to improve their games. Seems like many of them were on cottage time for a full 6 months. Why work to improve during the offseason when our coaches and GM clearly think we've already made it?

There is not a single word in this that is true. What nonsense are you spewing?

Two starting D acquired.

Analytics supported that team D and not goaltending is what deflated our goalies stats. UPL and Comrie are considerably better this year. Comrie .914 UPL .910 this year. Any talk about goals against is specifically due to Levi.

intentional focus on Defense to start the season.

How do you know what these players are doing? A few photos of vacations?

How do you know what Granato is saying to his staff?

In what world do you think Granato of all coaches would tell his players they have made it time to chill?

Why would a top scoring offense team go out an acquire a bunch of forwards just for the sake of it? It clearly wasn't a need going into this season.

 

[Mattilaus]

Lack of patience did them in. Look at the Canucks, at some point Hughes, Boeser and Pettersson were not playing great but we stuck with them even when there were some points in previous years fans wanted to trade them like Boeser. I think you got to be patient with young players. Even Canucks have made mistakes trading McCann and Forsling

We Didn't lack patience with Eichel, he requested a trade. Him going signified the end of that failed rebuild so we understandably shipped out the other parts.

 

[BFLO]

There is not a single word in this that is true. What nonsense are you spewing?

Two starting D acquired.

Analytics supported that team D and not goaltending is what deflated our goalies stats. UPL and Comrie are considerably better this year. Comrie .914 UPL .910 this year. Any talk about goals against is specifically due to Levi.

intentional focus on Defense to start the season.

How do you know what these players are doing? A few photos of vacations?

How do you know what Granato is saying to his staff?

In what world do you think Granato of all coaches would tell his players they have made it time to chill?

Why would a top scoring offense team go out an acquire a bunch of forwards just for the sake of it? It clearly wasn't a need going into this season.

Two bottom pairing D were added. Yes. I mentioned that. A top 4 right shot was what we needed.

Analytics supported that we had terrible team D and terrible goal tending last year. This year the analytics say that UPL and Comrie are pretty decent and that team D is slightly worse than last season. Overall goals against has improved over last year and it’s due to UPL and Comrie improving,

If they’re intentionally focused on defense why do the analytics says that they’re worse at defense?

I know that Granato and the players did not use the offseason to make improvements by simply having watched how unprepared they were in pre-season and still are well into the regular season.

A high scoring forward group would add some quality vets to the lineup to shore up their paper thin depth and add much better two way play.

 

[jackjohnson]

We Didn't lack patience with Eichel, he requested a trade. Him going signified the end of that failed rebuild so we understandably shipped out the other parts.

Yeah I guess you can't do anything about that one unfortunately. I think for Canucks McCann did ask for a trade but he isn't a major piece like Pettersson or Hughes.

 

[Beerz]

They make us play home games

 

[StreetHawk]

Still in the mix of the WC race.

But, need to figure out the right mix of players.

Don't rely on just prospects to fill your needs. Be willing to make a trade using those prospects to fill a need.

 

[Yatzhee]

Last season was very promising, right? They have been drafting well, also smart trades.
That roster is play-offs quality roster, right?

But once again, they give you the typical Buffalo Sabres season, .. currently 7th in the Atlantic
Only 3 worse teams in East this season so far.

What gives?.. 'cause i don't get it.

Good coaching
Good management
Good roster

Sure its early season but... yeah.

The GM, Kyven Adams, stayed the course. He basically didn't address goaltending, defense and grizzled veteran additions this past off season. The Sabres are the youngest team in hockey, rebuilding an initial tear down and rebuild failure. It may not be noticeable, but they are better than they were 4 years ago.
But yes, by going with the young guys throughout the line up, including in net while having Okposo and Girgensons as your only Forward veteran presence with Eirk Johnson as your only D vet presence and it becomes clear they are in a hold status, not progressing as a team over all.

Expect trades by Jan. Adams can't afford to sit idle until the deadline, and he has the capital in prospects, picks to swing some deals.

 

[Panthaz89]

Buffalo is a cursed city that can only house choke artist sport teams.

not in lacrosse

 

[MVP of West Hollywd]

The last time the Sabres were good certainly feels like a long time ago in my life.

 

[sabremike]

The GM, Kyven Adams, stayed the course. He basically didn't address goaltending, defense and grizzled veteran additions this past off season. The Sabres are the youngest team in hockey, rebuilding an initial tear down and rebuild failure. It may not be noticeable, but they are better than they were 4 years ago.
But yes, by going with the young guys throughout the line up, including in net while having Okposo and Girgensons as your only Forward veteran presence with Eirk Johnson as your only D vet presence and it becomes clear they are in a hold status, not progressing as a team over all.

Expect trades by Jan. Adams can't afford to sit idle until the deadline, and he has the capital in prospects, picks to swing some deals.

Adams is going to do absolutely nothing but babble on about vibes and trusting the process type BS while we sink straight back into the abyss.