Why did so many of you WANT this match up

[L'Aveuglette]

Pretty bold making a poll to call everyone who was looking forward to a matchup with the Leafs "stupid".

 

[Speatleysson]

I wanted the matchup for the psychological factor.. we weren't going to beat them off of skill. Also, Sens weren't going to beat Tampa nor Florida.

 

[frightenedinmatenum2]

Pretty bold making a poll to call everyone who was looking forward to a matchup with the Leafs "stupid".

I have nothing against OP, and this isn't a personal shot, I get that it's an emotional series, but I find this thread to be embarrassing in a "main board thread" sort of way.

People don't have to be delusional and say we're going to win in 7 and go on to take the cup, and people are entitled to be upset, but the way I see it is that I'd rather lose against the Leafs than be too afraid to see the Senators face them. The series isn't over, this isn't the time for this. We'll have all summer to complain.

Again, not a personal shot. I recognize OPs name and avatar and I've never taken an issue with anything they've posted so it's not meant to be a low blow or a pile on to the OP.

 

[NyQuil]

Pretty bold making a poll to call everyone who was looking forward to a matchup with the Leafs "stupid".

Some people like to throw tantrums.

Yes, we're big fans on HF but ultimately it's still just entertainment. The home playoff atmosphere is fun, the game-tying goal by Brady was exciting.

A win at home would be nice, but if not, we try again next year. That's the business.

The Leafs have paid for this likely series win with year after year of playoff disappointment.

We may have to pay our dues as well.

 

[bicboi64]

I'm having over 3 leafers while watching a possible sweep.

Emotions are high and it sucks , but I'll take it because the win against TML would be out so ever sweet

 

[Tuna99]

delete

 

[OttawaSenators11]

Washington was really never realistic and we’d get crushed by any FLA team wouldn’t be competitive.

With a little luck we could’ve won both OT games despite the lack of scoring and crappy goaltending.

 

[dumbdick]

For real?

Did you honestly expect us to win? I still can't believe so many of you wanted the Leafs when it was clear it was the perfect match up for them: a young team that is ok but not great, not very big at all, and a goalie with a bad track record in the playoffs (and I think he's been fine, we are losing because we can't score)

So: do you regret hoping for the Leafs?

EDIT: to clarify, it isn't that I think we beat Washington. Its that losing to the Leafs is awful. This is 2001 all over again.

Why would I regret it?

We're two overtime bounces away from leading this series 2-1, against the conference-winner that we've outshot and outplayed for long stretches.

Why are you painting this like some one-sided shit kicking that everyone should have seen coming?

 

[ahmedou]

I wanted this match up. For a Ottawa remontada. For Sens in 7. Inchallah!

 

[L'Aveuglette]

Delete this thread mate.

 

[Tuna99]

You know, there are no “loser” points in the playoffs.

The Sens, were never going to measure up well, in the playoffs vs any of Leafs, Panthers or Lightning…… Washington would have been a little better for then Sens in terms of matching up….but did not enter into the playoffs expecting more than a 6 or 7 game series.

The last team I would have wanted was the Leafs, as they have a long history of playoff failures to draw upon, and they brought in a coach ….. a coach that was available when Staios decided to bring in Martin….. nevertheless a coach that was going to get the Leafs over a hump or two this time around in the playoffs…… does anyone not think from the Leafs perspective that they would, if given the choice, would have hand picked the Sens over any of the teams contending for the wildcard spot as the season wound down?


On another note…. A LOT of Sens fans were all gah gah over a meaningless mid season one of,hockey tournament…. The 4 Nations Cup… and the Sens Captain laid it all on the line for that stupid tournament…. And now we’re seeing the fallout from that tournament….. and the same will be true when the NHL gets back into the Olympics allowing star players to possibly jeopardise their NHL teams playoff success, with a mid season tournament.

Rant ended.

https://torontosun.com/sports/hocke...quinn-the-new-pat-burns-with-the-maple-leafs[

This post did not age well.

 

[Tuna99]

Oh, it’s over, you just don’t see it yet…..

This post is even worse then the one above

 

[frightenedinmatenum2]

OP, please wait until after the series to let us all know that this was a brilliant reverse jinx.

 

[bert]

This post did not age well.

Do any of his ever?

 

[BoardsofCanada]

In fairness to the OP, the Sens have been outplayed ... until tonight that is.

Yes games 2, 3 and 4 were white knuckle thrillers that could've gone either way. But the truth is Ottawa has looked nervous and the Leafs have looked like true contenders.

That is until tonight. Was Ottawa a mature playoff contender tonight or were they lucky and did the Leafs come inches from taking it? I think there is truth both ways. But tonight, I saw Ottawa in a different light. They didn't look nervous. They went toe to toe with Toronto and came out on top.

Whatever happens Thursday, this has ended up being a respectable series performance from the Sens.

 

[NyQuil]

In fairness to the OP, the Sens have been outplayed ... until tonight that is.

Yes games 2, 3 and 4 were white knuckle thrillers that could've gone either way. But the truth is Ottawa has looked nervous and the Leafs have looked like true contenders.

That is until tonight. Was Ottawa a mature playoff contender tonight or were they lucky and did the Leafs come inches from taking it? I think there is truth both ways. But tonight, I saw Ottawa in a different light. They didn't look nervous. They went toe to toe with Toronto and came out on top.

Whatever happens Thursday, this has ended up being a respectable series performance from the Sens.

It’s nice to put pressure on them for a change with the lead.

We also appeared to do a lot better at faceoffs, particularly as the game wore on.

Only halfway there, but obviously their best overall performance to date.

 

[jbeck5]

What a thread.

 

[ahmedou]

I also wanted this match up because of Patthews Curse

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

This post is even worse then the one above

I’m glad you’re happy…. I am as well… I hope to be wrong about the historical chances of a team being down 3 wins to none in a seven games series… their odds of 1.9% chance of winning are now improved… but I would still not bet the house on it….

the Sens odds of winning the series…………. The odds of a a wildcard team in the NHL playoffs coming back to win a seven-game series after being down 3-0, but then winning Games 4 and 5 and returning home for Game 6, are historically very low but improved from the initial 1.9% (approximately 1 in 52 chance) when down 3-0. Let’s break this down based on available data and reasoning.

Historical Context
NHL Playoff Comebacks from 3-0 Deficits: Since the NHL adopted the best-of-seven format, only one team has ever come back from a 3-0 deficit to win a series: the 1942 Toronto Maple Leafs against the Detroit Red Wings in the Stanley Cup Final.
Out of 211 instances where a team has led 3-0 in a best-of-seven NHL playoff series (through recent data), the team with the 3-0 lead has won the series 210 times, yielding the 1.9% comeback probability (4 wins by the trailing team, but only one in the modern era for the specific 3-0 case).
However, reaching a 3-2 deficit with Game 6 at home is a rarer and more specific scenario, as the underdog must win two consecutive games (Games 4 and 5) after losing the first three.
Analyzing the Scenario
When the underdog has won Games 4 and 5, the series is now 3-2, and Game 6 is at their home arena. The question is the probability of winning the series, which requires winning both Game 6 (at home) and Game 7 (on the road, as the higher seed typically has home-ice advantage).

Key Factors

Momentum and Home-Ice Advantage:
Winning Games 4 and 5 indicates the underdog has found some momentum, potentially exploiting weaknesses in the higher seed (e.g., goaltending struggles, injuries, or tactical adjustments).
Home-ice advantage in Game 6 is significant. In NHL playoffs, home teams win approximately 55-60% of games on average, though this varies by series and team. For simplicity, let’s assume the underdog has a 60% chance of winning Game 6 at home, given their recent success and crowd support.
Game 7 Challenge:
If the underdog wins Game 6, the series goes to Game 7, typically on the higher seed’s home ice. The higher seed, as the stronger team, likely has a better regular-season record and home performance. Historical data suggests home teams in Game 7s win about 60-65% of the time, but let’s assume a 40% chance for the underdog to win Game 7 on the road, accounting for their momentum but acknowledging the difficulty.
Probability Calculation:
To win the series, the underdog must win both Game 6 and Game 7.
Probability of winning Game 6 (home): ~60% (0.6).
Probability of winning Game 7 (away): ~40% (0.4).
Combined probability: 0.6 × 0.4 = 0.24 or 24%.
Historical Precedents

While only one team (1942 Maple Leafs) has completed the 3-0 comeback, several teams have forced a Game 7 after being down 3-0:
2010 Philadelphia Flyers vs. Boston Bruins (won Games 4-7, including Game 6 at home).
2014 Los Angeles Kings vs. San Jose Sharks (won Games 4-7, Game 6 at home).
2024 Edmonton Oilers vs. Vancouver Canucks (not a 3-0 deficit, but a notable comeback forcing Game 7).
In these cases, teams that reached Game 6 at home after winning Games 4 and 5 had a 50% chance of forcing Game 7 (2 out of 4 recent examples succeeded), and then a 50% chance of winning Game 7 (1 out of 2 won the series). This small sample suggests a roughly 25% chance (0.5 × 0.5 = 0.25), aligning with our estimate.
Odds Estimation
Starting from the 1.9% chance at 3-0, the underdog’s odds improve significantly by winning Games 4 and 5. Based on the above:
The probability of winning the series from a 3-2 deficit with Game 6 at home is approximately 20-25%.
In betting terms, this translates to odds of roughly +300 to +400 (implied probability of 20-25%), a substantial improvement from the +5200 implied by 1.9%.
Caveats
Small Sample Size: With only one true 3-0 comeback and a handful of near-comebacks, the data is limited, and outcomes depend heavily on team-specific factors (e.g., injuries, goaltending, coaching).
Team Disparity: The higher seed is typically stronger, but if the underdog is a wild card with a strong roster (e.g., 2019 St. Louis Blues), their chances may be higher than a weaker team.
Recent Performance: The underdog’s ability to win Games 4 and 5 suggests they’ve adapted, but the higher seed may counter-adjust in Game 6.
Final Answer
The odds of a wildcard team winning a seven-game NHL playoff series after being down 3-0, but having won Games 4 and 5 and returning home for Game 6, are approximately 20-25% (or betting odds of +300 to +400). This is based on historical comeback data, home-ice advantage, and the need to win both remaining games.

20 to 25% odds are much better than 1.9% after three games…. Again, I hope to be wrong, and game 6 is the first of two must win games for Both teams….

 

[DylanSensFan]

Who doesn't like the battle of Ontario, no matter the outcome? I'd be lying if I said I didn't think we have a chance against them even before the series started. Skills wise the Leafs are better than Ottawa, but we have a feisty, scrappy team.

 

[DueDiligence]

Who doesn't like the battle of Ontario, no matter the outcome? I'd be lying if I said I didn't think we have a chance against them even before the series started. Skills wise the Leafs are better than Ottawa, but we have a feisty, scrappy team.

What is becoming obvious is that the Leafs top players are soft. Great talent but soft mentally and physically. Maybe Matthews is hurting but where's the dawg in him? Marner comes across like a pouty princess. Nylander doesn't work on defense. Tavares is uninspiring. On the other hand Tanev is a real playoff warrior and must be pissed by the stars on that team.

 

[YouGotAStuGoing]

I’m glad you’re happy…. I am as well… I hope to be wrong about the historical chances of a team being down 3 wins to none in a seven games series… their odds of 1.9% chance of winning are now improved… but I would still not bet the house on it….

the Sens odds of winning the series…………. The odds of a a wildcard team in the NHL playoffs coming back to win a seven-game series after being down 3-0, but then winning Games 4 and 5 and returning home for Game 6, are historically very low but improved from the initial 1.9% (approximately 1 in 52 chance) when down 3-0. Let’s break this down based on available data and reasoning.

Historical Context
NHL Playoff Comebacks from 3-0 Deficits: Since the NHL adopted the best-of-seven format, only one team has ever come back from a 3-0 deficit to win a series: the 1942 Toronto Maple Leafs against the Detroit Red Wings in the Stanley Cup Final.
Out of 211 instances where a team has led 3-0 in a best-of-seven NHL playoff series (through recent data), the team with the 3-0 lead has won the series 210 times, yielding the 1.9% comeback probability (4 wins by the trailing team, but only one in the modern era for the specific 3-0 case).
However, reaching a 3-2 deficit with Game 6 at home is a rarer and more specific scenario, as the underdog must win two consecutive games (Games 4 and 5) after losing the first three.
Analyzing the Scenario
When the underdog has won Games 4 and 5, the series is now 3-2, and Game 6 is at their home arena. The question is the probability of winning the series, which requires winning both Game 6 (at home) and Game 7 (on the road, as the higher seed typically has home-ice advantage).

Key Factors

Momentum and Home-Ice Advantage:
Winning Games 4 and 5 indicates the underdog has found some momentum, potentially exploiting weaknesses in the higher seed (e.g., goaltending struggles, injuries, or tactical adjustments).
Home-ice advantage in Game 6 is significant. In NHL playoffs, home teams win approximately 55-60% of games on average, though this varies by series and team. For simplicity, let’s assume the underdog has a 60% chance of winning Game 6 at home, given their recent success and crowd support.
Game 7 Challenge:
If the underdog wins Game 6, the series goes to Game 7, typically on the higher seed’s home ice. The higher seed, as the stronger team, likely has a better regular-season record and home performance. Historical data suggests home teams in Game 7s win about 60-65% of the time, but let’s assume a 40% chance for the underdog to win Game 7 on the road, accounting for their momentum but acknowledging the difficulty.
Probability Calculation:
To win the series, the underdog must win both Game 6 and Game 7.
Probability of winning Game 6 (home): ~60% (0.6).
Probability of winning Game 7 (away): ~40% (0.4).
Combined probability: 0.6 × 0.4 = 0.24 or 24%.
Historical Precedents

While only one team (1942 Maple Leafs) has completed the 3-0 comeback, several teams have forced a Game 7 after being down 3-0:
2010 Philadelphia Flyers vs. Boston Bruins (won Games 4-7, including Game 6 at home).
2014 Los Angeles Kings vs. San Jose Sharks (won Games 4-7, Game 6 at home).
2024 Edmonton Oilers vs. Vancouver Canucks (not a 3-0 deficit, but a notable comeback forcing Game 7).
In these cases, teams that reached Game 6 at home after winning Games 4 and 5 had a 50% chance of forcing Game 7 (2 out of 4 recent examples succeeded), and then a 50% chance of winning Game 7 (1 out of 2 won the series). This small sample suggests a roughly 25% chance (0.5 × 0.5 = 0.25), aligning with our estimate.
Odds Estimation
Starting from the 1.9% chance at 3-0, the underdog’s odds improve significantly by winning Games 4 and 5. Based on the above:
The probability of winning the series from a 3-2 deficit with Game 6 at home is approximately 20-25%.
In betting terms, this translates to odds of roughly +300 to +400 (implied probability of 20-25%), a substantial improvement from the +5200 implied by 1.9%.
Caveats
Small Sample Size: With only one true 3-0 comeback and a handful of near-comebacks, the data is limited, and outcomes depend heavily on team-specific factors (e.g., injuries, goaltending, coaching).
Team Disparity: The higher seed is typically stronger, but if the underdog is a wild card with a strong roster (e.g., 2019 St. Louis Blues), their chances may be higher than a weaker team.
Recent Performance: The underdog’s ability to win Games 4 and 5 suggests they’ve adapted, but the higher seed may counter-adjust in Game 6.
Final Answer
The odds of a wildcard team winning a seven-game NHL playoff series after being down 3-0, but having won Games 4 and 5 and returning home for Game 6, are approximately 20-25% (or betting odds of +300 to +400). This is based on historical comeback data, home-ice advantage, and the need to win both remaining games.

20 to 25% odds are much better than 1.9% after three games…. Again, I hope to be wrong, and game 6 is the first of two must win games for Both teams….

 

[bicboi64]

We can lose on Thursday and I'll still be fine with us having TML as our first round opponent. Majority of my friends are leafers and they're all in panic mode and more legit worried because of their stars choking history. This win will be oh so sweet if it happened and if we lose, hey, we showed some resilience by pushing it to 6 and learning how to adjust to playoff hockey.

Ottawa is 0-6 in game 7s, TML is 1-13 in close out games. Hope this goes to game 7 so flippin badly

 

[starling]

I have several Leafs friends and enjoy the banter even when I was on the receiving end of it. Wouldn't be the same if it was some garbage team from the US.