ForsbergForever
Registered User
- May 19, 2004
- 3,360
- 2,107
A couple of those old slow vets are first and second in team scoring, maybe its the kids who are the problem...
Why Can't the 2014-2015 Avalanche Score Goals?
- Thread starter Avsboy
- Start date
A couple of those old slow vets are first and second in team scoring, maybe its the kids who are the problem...
TheAngryHank
Expert
- May 28, 2008
- 18,402
- 6,922
Cyborg Yzerberg
Registered User
Hard to say. Losing Statsny, who was very, very good last year. Ate the hardest minutes and did a pretty good job with them hurts a bit too. The regression was something everyone in the analytics crowd saw coming. Varlamov has been phenomenal though. Either way I wouldn't be worried long term. Duchene, Mackinnon, and Landeskog are as good of young core players as you can build around. With good front office moves (drafting, trades, etc) everything will fall into its place soon. (Though the Stuart and Iginla contracts were both questionable and the Briere trade was also questionable. I'd be a little nervous about the the front office, though also too soon to fairly evaluate). I'm not sure if Roy is a good possession coach yet or not. Too soon to say still. Young team with holes in the roster.
To;dr too soon to really point the finger at anyone. Young team, needs to develop.
Possession numbers seem to correlate to playoff success though, generally. So it IS important.
BB1133
Registered User
- Apr 4, 2010
- 1,269
- 0
Yep, the kids have folded under the expectations, but I can't really put much blame on them. The problem is roster construction. Some of it was inherited, but current management hasn't done a whole lot to fix it either. If it wasn't for goaltending, the Avs would be in the McDavid sweepstakes.
Their blueline is shaky and they don't have a Stastny type two-way forward to fall back on, so the whole forward group has to be thinking backcheck all the time, can't commit and it screws up the offensive game and takes away the focus.
There are several things. Certainly the defense and possession could be better. The teams shooting percentage is also bottom 1/3. I think the talent is there to be top 1/3. At minimum they should be average. They're young and streaky. In our case, streaks and slumps seem to last a full season. Iggy and Tanguay were brought in to dig a young team out of a slump. They're doing their part, but nobody is following their lead.
I wouldn't be at all surprised if this team was back in the top 10 for goals next year. The problem is they might be back in the bottom ten the following year. They need to find some consistency, especially Duchene. MacKinnon gets a pass for now.
I wouldn't be at all surprised if this team was back in the top 10 for goals next year. The problem is they might be back in the bottom ten the following year. They need to find some consistency, especially Duchene. MacKinnon gets a pass for now.
cgf
FireBednarsSuccessor
Because Duchene is a bust, MacKinnon peaked last season, Landeskog is a 4th liner, O'Reilly is already mentally moved on to the KHL team he'll be playing for the season after next (once the ruble has bounced back), Stastny was actually the best playmaker in the NHL (only no one knew it because they didn't realize Landy and MacK sucked so hard), and because Patrick Roy wishes he was only as bad as Sacco. That's why we're leading the race for McEichel despite everything that could go right for this team, going right for us this year.
I think that covered everything, now just give up on the avs, find a new team, and take the rest of the entitled and irrational misers with you.
I think that covered everything, now just give up on the avs, find a new team, and take the rest of the entitled and irrational misers with you.
This team can score plenty of goals. Why they aren't...who knows. I'll wait til next season at least to judge the Avs for this year. Either the entire team just has its collective head up its rear, or last year was an aberration and THIS is your real Colorado Avalanche team. I'm inclined to believe the former over the latter. Stastny left, and your four top talents of MacKinnon, Landeskog, Duchene, and O'Reilly have a total of 120 points through 212 man games. I mean...the 4 of them COMBINED are barely averaging a half a point per game. Your leading point scorers are two players that have been around since the Pleistocene Era.
But hey...at least you can say you're getting balanced scoring. You have 7 players within 5 points of the team scoring lead. So there's that, I guess. Oh yeah, Colorado's power play is 2nd to last in the league...which is just mind blowing.
It'll be interesting to see if this team shows any sign of life the rest of the way out or if this just turns out to be one of the biggest single season steps backward any team's made in some time. One season you're beating out Chicago, St. Louis, and Minnesota for the Central division and posting one of the best records in the entire league. The next you're just outside of picking in the top 10 of the draft and picking up steam.
But hey...at least you can say you're getting balanced scoring. You have 7 players within 5 points of the team scoring lead. So there's that, I guess. Oh yeah, Colorado's power play is 2nd to last in the league...which is just mind blowing.
It'll be interesting to see if this team shows any sign of life the rest of the way out or if this just turns out to be one of the biggest single season steps backward any team's made in some time. One season you're beating out Chicago, St. Louis, and Minnesota for the Central division and posting one of the best records in the entire league. The next you're just outside of picking in the top 10 of the draft and picking up steam.
cgf
FireBednarsSuccessor
Picking up steam? The avs have been moving closer to a playoff spot, not a top pick, for a couple of months now. And they've achieved that despite having Varly miss significant time early in the season to sap the team's mojo, and EJ missing significant time now.
I understand how reading some of our fans posts about how the sky continues to be falling might make one not realize this, but that's where we stand.
613Leafer
Registered User
- May 26, 2008
- 13,021
- 3,960
Bad depth and a weak blueline.
A blueline that can move the puck well can help move thhe puck up to the forwards, and help with the cycle in the offensive zone both 5 on 5 and on the PP, which can help boost everyones offensive stats.
The lack of depth up front also lets opposing teams focus in on Colorado's top lines. Plus the weaker 3rd/4th lines means possession for the team is fairly weak (also enhanced by the poor blueline), which means every forward line starts in the defensive zone 30%+ of the time.
Stamkos/Kane for example get around 40% offensive zone starts vs ~23% defensive zone starts. Other top scoring forwards on good teams often get 5%+ zone starts in the offensive zone relative to the defensive zone, but every single forward on Colorado has more defensivr zone starts than offensive zone starts (except Briere, who has the same in both).
I think it has more to do with weak depth + weak blueline as opposed to Colorado's scoring lines being composed of poor possession/two-way players. Which is where Stastny comes in, because he was eating up a lot of quality minutes for them last season.
The thing is, with a weak farm system, there's no obvious answer coming in. They need to add a major blueliner and add 2-3 quality 3rd/4th line players. Free agency would be a very expensive avenue to try and address that, but the farm is in no position to fix it either. Letting Stastny walk for nothing could prove very costly, he could have gotten then 2-3 solid depth pieces i would imagine, or a solid #2-3 dman.
A blueline that can move the puck well can help move thhe puck up to the forwards, and help with the cycle in the offensive zone both 5 on 5 and on the PP, which can help boost everyones offensive stats.
The lack of depth up front also lets opposing teams focus in on Colorado's top lines. Plus the weaker 3rd/4th lines means possession for the team is fairly weak (also enhanced by the poor blueline), which means every forward line starts in the defensive zone 30%+ of the time.
Stamkos/Kane for example get around 40% offensive zone starts vs ~23% defensive zone starts. Other top scoring forwards on good teams often get 5%+ zone starts in the offensive zone relative to the defensive zone, but every single forward on Colorado has more defensivr zone starts than offensive zone starts (except Briere, who has the same in both).
I think it has more to do with weak depth + weak blueline as opposed to Colorado's scoring lines being composed of poor possession/two-way players. Which is where Stastny comes in, because he was eating up a lot of quality minutes for them last season.
The thing is, with a weak farm system, there's no obvious answer coming in. They need to add a major blueliner and add 2-3 quality 3rd/4th line players. Free agency would be a very expensive avenue to try and address that, but the farm is in no position to fix it either. Letting Stastny walk for nothing could prove very costly, he could have gotten then 2-3 solid depth pieces i would imagine, or a solid #2-3 dman.
The only reasons fall like that is possible is that they made one of the largest leaps in NHL history in the prior year.
That's pretty accurate. We definitely need better bottom six player that we can start in the defensive zone against the tougher players and finish in the offensive zone. Right now we're having to use our best lines for that, so it's kind of making them pull double duty. They're having to dig the puck out of their own zone and try to set something up in the offensive zone. The problem is that it's usually about time for a line change by the time they get it down there.
As for the weak farm system, we do have some potential depth coming up in Bleackley and several others. Our farm system is mostly weak because it lacks top end talent. We only have 3 guys that have top 6/4 potential. We have a bunch of guys that project as depth players. Bleackley is the only forward who is going to show upon any prospect rankings because he's the only one with a shot of being top 6, but we could have a few more bottom sixers in there. And with Bigras and Siemens we should have at least one more top 4 defenseman, maybe 2. We do desperately need a top line defenseman, but that's really the only spot where we should need to spend big money.
Last edited:
avsfan09
Registered User
Our team has no ability to transition the puck. We also have weak bottom Six depth so we play our top two lines almost every time our puck is in the dzone. Which is alot.
Whenever our d do get the puck it it's because they managed to float it up high and not ice it. Although they ice it more often than not. Teams have figured out how to pressure our dmen and keep the puck deep all game.
Basically if we had an ability to move the puck and our forwards were getting the puck with speed I don't think we'd be out of the playoffs. That and we need a new PP coach because their is no reason for a team with this much talent to not be able to even get the puck into the other end with possession on a five on four.
Whenever our d do get the puck it it's because they managed to float it up high and not ice it. Although they ice it more often than not. Teams have figured out how to pressure our dmen and keep the puck deep all game.
Basically if we had an ability to move the puck and our forwards were getting the puck with speed I don't think we'd be out of the playoffs. That and we need a new PP coach because their is no reason for a team with this much talent to not be able to even get the puck into the other end with possession on a five on four.
Need better puck moving dmen and the bottom 6 is weak too. They will be fine. Still think it's absurd Duchene made TC over Girioux
David Castillo
Registered User
Last season Colorado was 20th in shots for with 2420. This season Colorado is 24th in shots for at 1508, on pace for only 71 less shots than last season. The less shots you take, the less likely you are to score. I know Avs fans are sick of it, but this is what regression looks like, plain and simple. Corsi only allows one Cindarella to the ball each year. Two seasons ago it was Toronto. Last season, Colorado. This season, Montreal. Defenders are a big part of drive possession because they play the most minutes, and drive possession into the zones that forwards capitalize on and Colorado has a dreadful defensive core. It's not complicated.
Ghost of Kyiv
Wanted Dead and Alive
It doesn't matter how good your forwards are at putting pucks in the net if they are forced to play the majority of the game either without the puck or in there own zone.
I've only watched their games against the Wild so it may not be the best snap shot, but they seem to spend an awful lot of time chasing the puck in their own zone. If their defense was better they would spend more time playing offence, and probably score more goals.
Duchene and Landeskog (and now Tanguay) have to be playing with undisclosed injures.
Avs used to have great depth and puck skillz with Parenteau, Stastny, and Downie. The problem though is two of the three are not long term solutions and Stastny is more of a benefit to the club and the most expendable.
Stastny of course is not the answer since Avs sucked when he was having top 6 minutes at a consistent basis. That cap space was for depth, which has been all injured this year. Winchester who makes our 4th line so much better played a couple of preseason games and then has been shutdown for the rest of the year due to constant concussion symptoms. He is a good puck possession player for the bottom 2 lines. McGinn is out for the season with back surgery, brings some great secondary scoring. Rendulic who looked great as a temporary replacement on the top line broke his Tibia (good grinder with some skill).
So the reason why Avs lost in the playoffs last season, which is depth, is all injured. But it is still an area of weakness Avs need to improve on, especially in the puck skills and passing department. Stoll would be the most perfect player.
Yes Avs overpayed with picks for players, but they also made moves to increase cap space for potential free agents in off season with perhaps even trades in mind. Having this cap space is probably made for the idea of re-signing players like EJ and MacKinnon, but to also improve the defensive core and winger depth. So this season might be a lost caused, except for a great draft class, and also a learning curve, but we will see how Sakic and Roy conduct business at the trade deadline/June.
Avs used to have great depth and puck skillz with Parenteau, Stastny, and Downie. The problem though is two of the three are not long term solutions and Stastny is more of a benefit to the club and the most expendable.
Stastny of course is not the answer since Avs sucked when he was having top 6 minutes at a consistent basis. That cap space was for depth, which has been all injured this year. Winchester who makes our 4th line so much better played a couple of preseason games and then has been shutdown for the rest of the year due to constant concussion symptoms. He is a good puck possession player for the bottom 2 lines. McGinn is out for the season with back surgery, brings some great secondary scoring. Rendulic who looked great as a temporary replacement on the top line broke his Tibia (good grinder with some skill).
So the reason why Avs lost in the playoffs last season, which is depth, is all injured. But it is still an area of weakness Avs need to improve on, especially in the puck skills and passing department. Stoll would be the most perfect player.
Yes Avs overpayed with picks for players, but they also made moves to increase cap space for potential free agents in off season with perhaps even trades in mind. Having this cap space is probably made for the idea of re-signing players like EJ and MacKinnon, but to also improve the defensive core and winger depth. So this season might be a lost caused, except for a great draft class, and also a learning curve, but we will see how Sakic and Roy conduct business at the trade deadline/June.
FYI Avs are missing their two best defensemen due to injures. It's not an excuse, but it greatly impacts Avs chances of winning and losing since Johnson and Barrie are the two best puck rushing Dmen.
bohlmeister
...................
- May 18, 2007
- 17,854
- 456
I commented on that watching one of the games last week. Duchene and Mackinnon never have the puck. Blueline is obviously the glaring issue. They can't make a 10 foot pass and the team just ends up chasing the puck.
Great post.
I'd say both. Roy system heavily requires the goalie to basically be a god. It doesn't help that their D and bottom 6 is not where it should be. And that they lost quite possibly the most important piece of their team for free.
It'll be a little bit until Mack is able to properly adjust to center, but when that happens, watch out. I hope they find a way to keep ROR. He's perfect for that team. I'd also love for them to go after Sekera via FA. They're really entertaining to watch.
If they find a way to keep ROR, add a top 4 LHD that can move the puck and is responsible AND renovate the bottom 6 they can make a big comeback next year. They're not as top heavy as Edmonton or Dallas IMO. If they can have a NYI type of offseason that'd be great. I would personally target some cash strapped teams. Maybe Chicago,St. Louis and even others.
perfectly put
Avs44
Registered User
- May 16, 2011
- 21,884
- 10,662
Great post. Refreshing to see an intelligent, well thought out piece from an opposing fan rather than the usual.
Wild fan here.
From what I've seen this year, the biggest issue is their inability to effectively breakout of their zone, and their bottom 6 has been laughably ineffective.
There's talent in that top 6, but they spend too much time in their own zone defending, mostly because 4 of the 6 defenders are barely nhl calibre. Combine that with the injuries to the defense and they are basically reduced to chipping the puck out over and over; which again forces the forwards to play entirely too much defense.
From what I've seen this year, the biggest issue is their inability to effectively breakout of their zone, and their bottom 6 has been laughably ineffective.
There's talent in that top 6, but they spend too much time in their own zone defending, mostly because 4 of the 6 defenders are barely nhl calibre. Combine that with the injuries to the defense and they are basically reduced to chipping the puck out over and over; which again forces the forwards to play entirely too much defense.
The Macho King
Back* to Back** World Champion
- Jun 22, 2011
- 49,057
- 29,932
Reminds me of Tampa's first season under Yzerman. Played much better than expected and made a good run - people thought the rebuild was over. Over-achieving happens. Building a contender takes longer than one/two offseasons.
Seriously, the Avs have an awful blueline. Even if the guys back there aren't scoring, you need guys that can pinch down and maintain possession, move the puck quickly on a breakout, and force the players on D to respect them when they have the puck. They've got one (maybe two) guys that aren't complete crap back there.
I disagree, I think it's a fantastic excuse. Let's just call a spade a spade. The Avs have a terrible defensive group; so when the two best, and in my opinion the only two viable members of that group are gone, you are left with a defensive group very few teams could compete with.
It's become fashionable to promote this "next man up" mentality, and while agree with it in premise, some teams just don't have anything left after that first guy. If I were an Avs fan, I would have pride that my team could even manage to earn points without Johnson or Barrie, let alone missing both.
LaCarriere
Registered User
Those two slow vets are #1-2 in scoring on the team. The young guys aren't scoring. MacK is really having a true definition of a sophomore slump season. I was expecting a lot more from him.
The scariest thing is Varly hasn't regressed nearly as much as I thought he would. Nearly identical SV% and GAA as last year, but you wouldn't believe it without looking it up.
The need a true #1-2 defensive paring, and I think that would make a world of a difference, and probably help with puck possession as well. Their top 6 are constantly defending in their own end.
