Speculation: Why are the Leafs so hesitant to change the main pieces?

[Captain Crunch]

Teams are regularly letting players walk at the end of a contract. Samsonov is the first one that comes to mind, and we're probably better without him.

The issue is more a high profile player. It becomes a question of "can you get equivalent value using just the freed up cap space", and not necessarily in a single player. If, as most people seem to think, he is overpaid at his current $11, let alone at the projected $12.5, then it may not be easy, but shouldn't be impossible.

I agree with you 100% on this! I believe that would be a win for us!

 

[Captain Crunch]

NY Islanders

Yes, like I pointed out in my reply to Tonedog, I totally messed up on that! Thanks to you as well for pointing that out!

 

[Tak7]

on a line with matty and marner im pretty sure

Only heard it on Overdrive - they mentioned Tavares/Marner, which suggests that their plan is not only to have Marner come back, but to utilize him with Tavares to help bleed as much from the JT stone as they can and hopefully get him back up to producing at a higher level than last season.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Our goaltending was a mess of scrap heap projects

If your team doesn't have one of a handful of elite goalies primarily drafted by their team a decade ago, then these are the quality of goalie options that exist. Welcome to the NHL. Treliving is spending less on goaltending, and going for even more unproven and obscure options.

Our defence was marginal at best

Our defense was very good, for once, after spending the rest of the cap era near the bottom of the league. Treliving destroyed that in one offseason.

God no, the message has been pretty clearly articulated for years: The one common thread among all of these years of playoff failure is Matthews, Marner, Tavares, Reilly, Nylander & Shanahan.

The message has been clearly articulated for years. You show it again in this very statement. It's not about an actual plan to improve the team. You want change, and these players existed before, so change them. That is change for change's sake.

This. There is a huge drop for all the core 4 in Playoff production vs regular season production

Matthews 75.65%
Marner 79.27%
Nylander 90.9%
Tavares 78.72%

Famed playoff "choker" Joe Thornton was at 80%, for scale. Three of the core 4 are below that.

Over the past 3 years, Tkachuk has dropped to 80% of his regular season scoring in the playoffs. Clearly, he's a playoff choker who will never win.

 

[Ianturnedbull]

Habs fan coming in peace. Not looking for drama, just a question since yesterday and this morning.

I look at the Bolts the last two days. They went to three Stanley cup finals and won 2 out of 3. They then lose two first rounds.

The team is not standing pat and riding with the same core after all their success.

Moving up a young dman who yes got injured in Sergachev. They cleaned up their mistake with Jeannot. Stamkos their captain coming off a 40 goal season is likely not to re-sign. They want to do what the fans of Toronto want with Marner to take a cap reduction with term. I know their ages and one is a UFA but they tend to want to move up unless getting the player for Pennie’s on the dollar over term.

But speaking of age the leafs then are trying to lock up 35 year old Tanev to term.

I just was wondering where I know Leafs fans are split on Marner and changes needed. Why is it the Lightning are willing to tear down a portion of their team to re-tool which they acknowledge they need to get better and this after 2 years removed from 3 consecutive years of Stanley cup appearances all the while keeping the same coach and such as well.

Again not looking for trouble just a honest question why the Leafs are hesitant to try something new to get over that potential hump.

If Treliving moves Robertson this offseason I will be impressed by the change.

 

[TMLBlueandWhite]

Business is good in Leafs land. Why upset that with a trade?

Sure it would likely help the hockey performance but at the end of the day players like Willie, Marner, AM34 etc sell tickets and jerseys.

Also it's impossible to move those deals...

Everyone who sucks at their job should just say "It's not possible to do that".

State it with the authority of an absolute truth. Then don't even bother trying at your job. That sounds an awful lot like the Brendan Shanahan way.

Sounds an awful lot like the Toronto Maple Leafs way too.

When something's too hard give up. That's the spirit champ. Let some other self-entitled prick who wants it more have it.

If it's not worth fighting over it's not worth having.

The players have made it clear the cup isn't worth fighting over. But they'll go to the wall for their contracts. Including making sure to have a NMC so they can hold the team hostage when they want to trade one of these losers.

Just like Kadri did.... until he got traded.

McCabe too for that matter.

 

[Racer88]

If your team doesn't have one of a handful of elite goalies primarily drafted by their team a decade ago, then these are the quality of goalie options that exist. Welcome to the NHL. Treliving is spending less on goaltending, and going for even more unproven and obscure options.

Our defense was very good, for once, after spending the rest of the cap era near the bottom of the league. Treliving destroyed that in one offseason.

The message has been clearly articulated for years. You show it again in this very statement. It's not about an actual plan to improve the team. You want change, and these players existed before, so change them. That is change for change's sake.

Over the past 3 years, Tkachuk has dropped to 80% of his regular season scoring in the playoffs. Clearly, he's a playoff choker who will never win.

As far as Tkachuk goes the team he is on has not spent 50% of their cap on 4 similear forwards so they can afford to build a good team at all positions..

 

[nuck]

I don't see this team being a serious SC contender this year so I'd be open to moving Marner at the TDL if he agrees to waive. Maybe that is the best return you can get, given nobody is breaking Tre's door to acquire him. We know Trotz kicked tires, but signed the 3 best available UFAs instead.

So long as they are firmly in a playoff position I can't see Marner as a TDL move. Too disruptive to the team that relied on him to help get that far. I can't think of a historical precedent. They would move him as a pure rental and get a fraction of his full season value with no chance of getting the kind of assets back that will help in a playoff run and 100 pt clubs always think they are in the hunt.

As far as people breaking Tre's door down, all we know is no dance partner has been leaked, which isn't the same thing. A club has to be agreeable to absorbing that much salary and then paying a somewhat inflated value next season and for years thereafter. And of course have the minimum assets the Leafs would need back. Thats maybe only 3 teams so they might be tinkering with a counter offer or just stewing over someone's best and final. If the offers for a re-signed Mitch are too few or weak they may even be considering trading him as a summer rental to get a few more teams in play.

Or maybe they are legit considering a long term deal for him as the moves they made so far seem like the penny pinching steps of a club that is going to try to carry the $10.9 all year. FWIW I don't think I would give him 8 unless he took Willie's deal but Tre seems to get rag dolled as bad as KD did so I would not bet money on restraint.

 

[Larcos_Unal]

Only heard it on Overdrive - they mentioned Tavares/Marner, which suggests that their plan is not only to have Marner come back, but to utilize him with Tavares to help bleed as much from the JT stone as they can and hopefully get him back up to producing at a higher level than last season.

This works ONLY if you have a 3rd line. You need to give JT's line way more offensive zone starts and have Matthews and the 3rd line shoulder more of the defensive load.

JT can't do it anymore, Matthews is in his prime and is the highest paid player in the league...he should play the toughest minutes.

 

[Nineteen67]

All good as long as you guys keep buying tickets and merch and Bieber jerseys I for one won't step foot in the Scotiabank palace

One of the last places in the league I’d go to watch a Leafs game. Only ahead of Minny and Seattle

 

[darrylsittler27]

You have several problems with moving Marner. One he is RW, no one builds a contender around a 12 m winger unless it's Bossy. Two, Marner has to want to go there. Three, you can't get burned i.e Tckacuk. They looked at all their options. If they lose first round again Marner walks and 12 million goes elsewhere. This whole thing could blow up next summer from Shanny down.

 

[Racer88]

You have several problems with moving Marner. One he is RW, no one builds a contender around a 12 m winger unless it's Bossy. Two, Marner has to want to go there. Three, you can't get burned i.e Tckacuk. They looked at all their options. If they lose first round again Marner walks and 12 million goes elsewhere. This whole thing could blow up next summer from Shanny down.

It should have been blown up this summer and as early as last summer

 

[darrylsittler27]

It should have been blown up this summer and as early as last summer

The minute we resigned Keefe we were a write off and most knew it. Most also knew Samsonov wasn't the guy.

 

[57 Years No Cup]

It should have been blown up this summer and as early as last summer

It should have been blown up after the Montreal Series.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Treliving is afraid to move on from shitty overpaid plugs like Kampf. I don't think he'd even dream about trading a star player after how badly he lost the Tkachuk trade

 

[BlueBaron]

I think each piece us it's own case.

Matthews. The franchise.

Marner. Top 5 playmaking winger from ontario, compliments an elite sniper well, limited options due to cap hit.

Nylander. Top 10ish right winger who is our most consistent play off performer. Gets better each year.

JT. Contract makes trading without retention doubtful. Then creates a hole at C. Likely wanted back on a cheaper deal.

Morgan. Some say he is the defacto Captain. Top ten offensive d on a good contract. Longest serving Leaf.

All home drafted except for JT.

I'm going to say we only have 2 line drivers in Auston and Willy. Marner adds that boost to any line.

I'd say we could even let jt walk. Cap goes up a bit and we have 12 or 13 mil to get a 2c and top 6 winger. It might be worth waiting out.

If we assume Knies is our #2LW we have until the deadline for him and Robertson to prove they aren't 1 and 2. I kind if feel we are in a great position right now if Jt only dips 10 points or so.

Marner or Nylander? Both special players and totally different. Both 11+mill so not easy trades for fair value. What are you trading for? a young #2C. Does that make sense. No one is giving us a C or D of equal talent so we are trading a superstar for depth. It's hard to do that unless the deal is awesome, like a ready to step in future star rookie.

You need a partner who makes it worth doing.

If not you will regret it forever.

Truth is though, it may be as simple as Shanny being stubborn.

 

[57 Years No Cup]

I think each piece us it's own case.

Matthews. The franchise.

Marner. Top 5 playmaking winger from ontario, compliments an elite sniper well, limited options due to cap hit.

Nylander. Top 10ish right winger who is our most consistent play off performer. Gets better each year.

JT. Contract makes trading without retention doubtful. Then creates a hole at C. Likely wanted back on a cheaper deal.

Morgan. Some say he is the defacto Captain. Top ten offensive d on a good contract. Longest serving Leaf.

All home drafted except for JT.

I'm going to say we only have 2 line drivers in Auston and Willy. Marner adds that boost to any line.

I'd say we could even let jt walk. Cap goes up a bit and we have 12 or 13 mil to get a 2c and top 6 winger. It might be worth waiting out.

If we assume Knies is our #2LW we have until the deadline for him and Robertson to prove they aren't 1 and 2. I kind if feel we are in a great position right now if Jt only dips 10 points or so.

Marner or Nylander? Both special players and totally different. Both 11+mill so not easy trades for fair value. What are you trading for? a young #2C. Does that make sense. No one is giving us a C or D of equal talent so we are trading a superstar for depth. It's hard to do that unless the deal is awesome, like a ready to step in future star rookie.

You need a partner who makes it worth doing.

If not you will regret it forever.

Truth is though, it may be as simple as Shanny being stubborn.

Marner's cap space can buy you the player you can't trade for.

 

[BlueBaron]

Marner's cap space can buy you the player you can't trade for.

Well if you are suggesting dumping him for nothing then I don't think you're realistic. You are throwing away a 100 point player for depth. If Marner were not so good defensively there might be a case but I think best case you trade him for a physical first liner or something but let's not pretend it doesn't create a huge hole where inferior players take his minutes.

 

[m1ker]

trade them all for picks and start over, it's impossible to win with no goalie, rielly the #1, and forwards that cant score in the playoffs

We lost our chance when we signed Tavares, traded Kadri, signed marleau, gave marner and willy too much money and let Anderson go

The year everyone was a rookie we had so many forward prospects, it makes no sense how we didn't flip anyone for defence prospects

 

[Bust]

This is what happens when you draft BPA every draft, don’t properly build your team and try and retain all your assets.

At some point you have to build. You can’t have all the pieces fall into your lap and expect success.

We have never made any calls along the way.

Cross your fingers and hope for the highest draft pick, take BPA, and hope for success - no successful model was accomplished this way.

Bunch of cowards. I think Tre is built a bit different - it took balls to deal with the situation he did in CGY, but if he’s being cuffed there’s no hope until Shanny is gone.

 

[Bust]

This is what happens when you draft BPA every draft, don’t properly build your team and try and retain all your assets.

At some point you have to build. You can’t have all the pieces fall into your lap and expect success.

We have never made any calls along the way. It’s always been the easy way with this regime.

Cross your fingers and hope for the highest draft pick, take BPA, and hope for success - no successful model was accomplished this way.

Bunch of cowards. I think Tre is built a bit different - it took balls to deal with the situation he did in CGY, but if he’s being cuffed there’s no hope until Shanny is gone.

 

[BlueBaron]

This is what happens when you draft BPA every draft, don’t properly build your team and try and retain all your assets.

At some point you have to build. You can’t have all the pieces fall into your lap and expect success.

We have never made any calls along the way.

Cross your fingers and hope for the highest draft pick, take BPA, and hope for success - no successful model was accomplished this way.

Bunch of cowards. I think Tre is built a bit different - it took balls to deal with the situation he did in CGY, but if he’s being cuffed there’s no hope until Shanny is gone.

Uh are you sure? I mean the Pens drafted 3 c and a goalie to build around.

Think it has more to do with the draft year and your pick position. Other than taking Hanifin in Marners year I don't recall a top d we passed over. We had 2 first round d of which we traded one.
We draft really well but we don't trade as well. Boston always gets the guy we need because we're to cheap to pay those prices.

Regardless we have the best player in franchise history and we need to find a way to get a cup out of him.

 

[Bust]

Uh are you sure? I mean the Pens drafted 3 c and a goalie to build around.

Think it has more to do with the draft year and your pick position. Other than taking Hanifin in Marners year I don't recall a top date passed over. We hadc2 first round d of which we traded on.
We draft really well but we don't trade as well. Boston always gets the guy we need because we're to cheap to pay those prices.

Regardless we have the best player in franchise history and we need to find a way to get a cup out of him.

Are you talking about Crosby, Malkin, Staal and MAF? My man, the pieces we drafted aren’t those guys, and that right there has been our problem.

We needed to trade someone at some point. Even in your example, Staal then eventually MAF was traded.

I agree, you build around Matthews - that should have been the easy part.

By all accounts, drafting BPA is genius - but we needed to make deals along the way. We never made any real decisions, just kept adding and hoping things would work out.

Inaction is an action. Simple as that.

 

[57 Years No Cup]

As expected, money always talks. You outed yourselves again.