Who's the better goal scorer, Drake Batherson or Mitch Marner?

[ChantTropolis]

Speak your mind HF

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[NyQuil]

Mitch Marner.

They are both playmakers primarily but have to go with the guy with the more extensive goal scoring resume.

 

[jbeck5]

Sens fan voting Marner.

I'm sure they will be pretty close in terms of goals going forward.

What I generally expect on an average year in their prime is:

Batherson: 20-25 goals, 30-40 assists. 50-65 points.
Marner: 20-25 goals, 50-60 assists. 70-85 points.

 

[CatchyTune]

Sens fan voting Marner.

I'm sure they will be pretty close in terms of goals going forward.

What I generally expect on an average year in their prime is:

Batherson: 20-25 goals, 30-40 assists. 50-65 points.
Marner: 20-25 goals, 50-60 assists. 70-85 points.

why do you expect Marner to be that low? he already has a 94 point season, and is playing to a 104 point season this year (under 82 games)

 

[HockeyVirus]

IDK but Marner isn't a goal scorer. So if Batherson has any ability likely him.

 

[Spirit of 67]

I'd like to wait until one has played significantly more than 85 games when the other has played almost 350.

My answer is: Maybe.

 

[CatchyTune]

IDK but Marner isn't a goal scorer. So if Batherson has any ability likely him.

thats a pretty shitty argument. Marner doesnt score a ton of goals but Batherson hasnt showed he can score more than him yet

 

[jbeck5]

why do you expect Marner to be that low? he already has a 94 point season, and is playing to a 104 point season this year (under 82 games)

Can probably up the assists another 10. I also think the last year or two and maybe the next year or two he produces more than the next like 5-6 that I was thinking of. Kinda like how spezza and Heatley put up over 100 pts paces together for a couple hot years and then are more of a point per game for most of their career otherwise.

 

[HockeyVirus]

Can probably up the assists another 10. I also think the last year or two and maybe the next year or two he produces more than the next like 5-6 that I was thinking of. Kinda like how spezza and Heatley put up over 100 pts paces together for a couple hot years and then are more of a point per game for most of their career otherwise.

Ok but he has scored at a 90+ point pace for 3.5 seasons now.

 

[NyQuil]

IDK but Marner isn't a goal scorer. So if Batherson has any ability likely him.

Even he admits he's not that much of a goalscorer.



Ottawa has a pretty good set of playmaking guys (Batherson, Stutzle, Norris) and some sandpaper guys with offence (Tkachuk, Formenton, Paul) but we are still missing that sniper.

Dadonov was supposed to be it, but that's not really how he plays.

 

[CatchyTune]

Can probably up the assists another 10. I also think the last year or two and maybe the next year or two he produces more than the next like 5-6 that I was thinking of. Kinda like how spezza and Heatley put up over 100 pts paces together for a couple hot years and then are more of a point per game for most of their career otherwise.

if anything expect him to improve as he enters his prime. not regress. he had 94 points at 21 years old. they werent anomaly years as he put up 94 point pace twice, now is up to 104 pace... better not worse man. but this isnt what this thread is about

 

[jbeck5]

Ok but he has scored at a 90+ point pace for 3.5 seasons now.

2.5 years.

Go look at spezza. He also put up 90+ point paces multiple years with Alfie and Heatley. These lines don't last forever.

The leafs haven't had much success so I can see a lot of things happen. If they lose in the first round again I could see a trade happen. They aren't trading Matthews but they might trade Marner. Marner away from Matthews probably only gets 85 points. Throw in the other possibility that he starts playing more complete game at the expense of offense if they don't have playoff success like Yzerman did. they might split up the duo if they don't get team success. Also throw in the fact players typically have a few years of peak offensive performance which I believe Marner is in now.

It's just a prediction. Over the next like 6 years I see him averaging a little over a ppg probably. No need to get insulted.

 

[NyQuil]

Kinda like how spezza and Heatley put up over 100 pts paces together for a couple hot years and then are more of a point per game for most of their career otherwise.

Part of it was probably them peaking a little bit physically at the time but it's also due to the fact that PP opportunities jumped 40% in 2005-2006 with the crackdown.

 

[HockeyVirus]

2.5 years.

Go look at spezza. He also put up 90+ point paces multiple years with Alfie and Heatley. These lines don't last forever.

The leafs haven't had much success so I can see a lot of things happen. If they lose in the first round again I could see a trade happen. They aren't trading Matthews but they might trade Marner. Marner away from Matthews probably only gets 85 points. Throw in the other possibility that he starts playing more complete game at the expense of offense if they don't have playoff success like Yzerman did. Also throw in the fact players typically have a few years of peak offensive performance which I believe Marner is in now.

Uhh but he hasn't been playing on one line when he put up the points?

This year and last he was playing with Matthews.

Year before he put up 91 points at 21 with Tavares as his center.

Year before that, from Jan onwards he played at a 91 point pace (when he broke out) with Bozak and JVR..

3.5 years, 3 different lines.

 

[NyQuil]

The leafs haven't had much success so I can see a lot of things happen. If they lose in the first round again I could see a trade happen. They aren't trading Matthews but they might trade Marner. Marner away from Matthews probably only gets 85 points. Throw in the other possibility that he starts playing more complete game at the expense of offense if they don't have playoff success like Yzerman did. Also throw in the fact players typically have a few years of peak offensive performance which I believe Marner is in now.

There's a lot of moves I would pursue before trading Marner, even if they were to get knocked out in the first round.

 

[jbeck5]

Uhh but he hasn't been playing on one line when he put up the points?

This year and last he was playing with Matthews.

Year before he put up 91 points at 21 with Tavares as his center.

Year before that, from Jan onwards he played at a 91 point pace (when he broke out) with Bozak and JVR..

3.5 years, 3 different lines.

Reminds me of spezza, who also didn't keep putting up 110 point paces for a decade even if he did it for a few seasons.

 

[jbeck5]

There's a lot of moves I would pursue before trading Marner, even if they were to get knocked out in the first round.

Me too, but I'm just repeating what they say.

I hear they aren't trading Matthews.
I hear Tavares doesn't have that much value with that contract.
I hear they aren't trading Nylander because he makes much less than the others...

Obviously I'm not in the inner circle but those are the things Toronto media often mention. How they would be better having some of those resources on defense and though Marner is good, Matthews is untradeable so Marner might be the only choice?

I'm just repeating what I hear.

 

[The Podium]

2.5 years.

Go look at spezza. He also put up 90+ point paces multiple years with Alfie and Heatley. These lines don't last forever.

The leafs haven't had much success so I can see a lot of things happen. If they lose in the first round again I could see a trade happen. They aren't trading Matthews but they might trade Marner. Marner away from Matthews probably only gets 85 points. Throw in the other possibility that he starts playing more complete game at the expense of offense if they don't have playoff success like Yzerman did. they might split up the duo if they don't get team success. Also throw in the fact players typically have a few years of peak offensive performance which I believe Marner is in now.

It's just a prediction. Over the next like 6 years I see him averaging a little over a ppg probably. No need to get insulted.

This is ridiculous, first and foremost Marner wont be traded, if it falls apart again Nylander and Tavares are the big 4 that go. Marner has 150 games worth of 90 point pace away from Matthews, including a full season with Tavares and half a season with Bozak and JVR. Marner and Matthews line is already pretty solid defensively so they wont pull a Yzerman, although Tavares appears to have done just that this season.

 

[smitty10]

Reminds me of spezza, who also didn't keep putting up 110 point paces for a decade even if he did it for a few seasons.

But you said in his prime. Mitch Marner is 23 and this is his third season where (pro-rated for obvious reasons) he's pacing over 92 points. Right now his pace is 104.

What part of his game reminds you of Spezza? He's far closer to a Patrick Kane comparison than he is a 6'3 center.

 

[NyQuil]

Me too, but I'm just repeating what they say.

I hear they aren't trading Matthews.
I hear Tavares doesn't have that much value with that contract.
I hear they aren't trading Nylander because he makes much less than the others...

Obviously I'm not in the inner circle but those are the things Toronto media often mention. How they would be better having some of those resources on defense and though Marner is good, Matthews is untradeable so Marner might be the only choice?

I'm just repeating what I hear.

I guess it's not really something to worry about until/if it happens.

 

[HockeyVirus]

Reminds me of spezza, who also didn't keep putting up 110 point paces for a decade even if he did it for a few seasons.

You said it reminded you of the Spezza line and how chemistry fades. I showed you he has scored at this pace on 3 different lines over 3.5 seasons. It sounds more like you are just in denial about how good Marner is.

 

[jbeck5]

This is ridiculous, first and foremost Marner wont be traded, if it falls apart again Nylander and Tavares are the big 4 that go. Marner has 150 games worth of 90 point pace away from Matthews, including a full season with Tavares and half a season with Bozak and JVR. Marner and Matthews line is already pretty solid defensively so they wont pull a Yzerman, although Tavares appears to have done just that this season.

I mean, I guess we'll see.

I'm sure a lot of sens fans predicted spezza to be more than a PPG the next 5 years after putting up 269 points over 211 games over 3 years.

All in saying is I think Marner is currently in his offensive peak and peaks don't always last more than a handful of seasons. I don't think it's that crazy to say that if you look back in 6 years or something, he'll average around ppg or a bit above. Unless you think he's boardeline generational and will put up 100+ point paces for a decade or something...I just don't see it. No need to turn it into a pissing match, I'm just taking a conservative approach.

Just like many sens fans would also hope for more than 50 points per year out of batherson but that's how I do. I've predicted players to do much than they have so many times that I've lowered my expectations across the board.

Btw, when I say 50-65 points for batherson and 70-85 points for marner(later adjusted to 80-95), I'm saying I'm not including random good years here and there. Marner may have 1 or 2 100+ point seasons for sure.

Think of it this way, I called Bonk and McEachern 50-60 point players even though they had 70 and 72 point years.

So me saying marner will be a 80-90 point forward doesn't mean he can't have 1 or 2 100 point seasons, it just means for the most part, over the next many years, aside from one or two 100+ point seasons, he'll likely fall more in the 80-90 point range.

 

[jbeck5]

But you said in his prime. Mitch Marner is 23 and this is his third season where (pro-rated for obvious reasons) he's pacing over 92 points. Right now his pace is 104.

What part of his game reminds you of Spezza? He's far closer to a Patrick Kane comparison than he is a 6'3 center.

I never said they played the same style, though they were both playmakers. I'm just using an example of a top offensive guy, who was not generational like Crosby or malkin, like many others where you see produce ridiculous numbers for a few seasons then settle to something more consistent.

Maybe this is semantics but I see peak as your top few seasons and your Prime as much longer for the most part.

Using spezza as an example. His peak would be the pizza line years whereas his prime would be everything but the first couple years and the last few years where his offense went down big time.

So 90+ pace was his peak, and 70+ point pace was his prime. He had 3 seasons of peak and like 8-9 seasons of prime or whatever. So prime, to me, is everything but your developing or declining years. Peak is your best couple seasons that are generally outliers to the rest of your Prime.

 

[jbeck5]

You said it reminded you of the Spezza line and how chemistry fades. I showed you he has scored at this pace on 3 different lines over 3.5 seasons. It sounds more like you are just in denial about how good Marner is.

No, it's really not that. Like I said, I'm more conservative with my predictions. This is bathersons first full season and he's putting up a 50 point pace and yet I don't see you complaining that I have his prime window starting at 50 points. It has nothing to do with a bias or anything. Marner is my favourite players on the leafs.

It's honestly about how I often make predictions and more often than not, I overshoot with my predictions, so to be more accurate, I've lowered my expectations across the board.

In the past I would predict someone like marner keeps putting up 100 points, but 7-8-9 times out of 10, they end up getting less than I predict.

Crosby had 100 points in 4 of the first 5 years. 100+ pace in 5 of 5. I predicted him to get 100+ points for the next decade unless an off year. He's only hit 100 points twice in the next 11 years.

Ovechkin had 100+ points in 4 of the first 5 years. I expected him to reach that target many times. It's been 11 years now and he's never hit it again.

Malkin had over 100 points in 3 of the first 6 years. I thought he would keep doing it almost half the time. Hasn't hit the mark again in 9 years.

Can you atleast see why I'm thinking the way I do? It doesn't mean I don't think marner won't be a top offensive player for a long time, I just think it's very hard to keep putting up 100 point seasons for a decade. Not even the best of the best can do it. Maybe McDavid can?

 

[34]

These two player can not be further apart. Marner is on another world.