Buffalo Bills Season over. Ow.

[Ace]

On one hand the defense shut down Kelce and limited the running backs.

On the other hand Xavier Worthy did exactly what some people said he would in the exact spot they said he would do it on the night he was drafted with the pick we traded them

Undone by a QB we traded them the pick for to a WR we traded them the pick for. While a corner they traded ahead of us for did good work and we watched the slop left over at the same position get picked on all night.

Cant wait to see what we cook up in the draft this year

 

[Zman5778]

I'm not 100% sure how I missed that replay in real time. But holy christ.......that's going right up there with Charles Clay's drop to not win that Miami game.

 

[Taro Tsujimoto]

As a 1st place team, Bills play five 1st place teams next season. All three other AFC division winners, the cross-conference full-division slate, which obviously includes a division winner, and the Bills 17th game next season is the 1st place Eagles, in the same way the Lions were the 17th game this season.

So the Bills will play this year's Super Bowl winner in HIghmark stadium next season, guaranteed.

Bills home slate next year is loaded. 4 playoff teams (Chiefs, Eagles, Ravens, Bucs) and 2 that just missed (Dolphins, Bengals).

 

[Husko]

If there's one position, other than DL which is obvious, that I'd endorse them throwing some money at a young FA or trading up for a splash player, it's safety. How many defenses have we seen get serious shots in the arm because of a safety the last few years. Hamilton. Branch. DeJean (more of a NB but wrecks the game in the same way). Moreover, McDermott's defense was at it's best when we had two good safeties. Obviously a game wrecking DE is everyone's pipe dream. But those are hard to find. Safety is much cheaper in both FA and draft investment and it's so easy for me to imagine a ball hawk paired with Bishop giving this defense a serious shot in the arm.

I'll say more in the new thread that's coming.......(monday or tuesday)

But I am not on the re-sign Bernard train.

I know he's not perfect, and the constant injuries are a concern, but I imagine his cost (average MLB's don't make much) will be well worth it for someone that's clearly very important to the defense being functioning, aligned right, etc.

 

[brian_griffin]

On one hand the defense shut down Kelce and limited the running backs.

On the other hand Xavier Worthy did exactly what some people said he would in the exact spot they said he would do it on the night he was drafted with the pick we traded them

Undone by a QB we traded them the pick for to a WR we traded them the pick for. While a corner they traded ahead of us for did good work and we watched the slop left over at the same position get picked on all night.

Cant wait to see what we cook up in the draft this year

I remember your 2024 draft tirade musings.
The Bills set a Buffalo team record for both 16 and 17-game seasons total points scored. 2nd in NFL.
1st team in modern NFL history with 6 TDs, 0 turnovers in a game and lost. Prior teams were 245-0 before Bills-Rams.
Their issue wasn't offense / Worthy / outscoring Mahomes, regardless of your first sentence.

 

[Husko]

If there's one position, other than DL which is obvious, that I'd endorse them throwing some money at a young FA or trading up for a splash player, it's safety. How many defenses have we seen get serious shots in the arm because of a safety the last few years. Hamilton. Branch. DeJean (more of a NB but wrecks the game in the same way). Moreover, McDermott's defense was at it's best when we had two good safeties. Obviously a game wrecking DE is everyone's pipe dream. But those are hard to find. Safety is much cheaper in both FA and draft investment and it's so easy for me to imagine a ball hawk paired with Bishop giving this defense a serious shot in the arm.


I know he's not perfect, and the constant injuries are a concern, but I imagine his cost (average MLB's don't make much) will be well worth it for someone that's clearly very important to the defense being functioning, aligned right, etc.

Kyle Hamilton and Brian Branch were both considered top end talent that fell in the draft because they didn't play a premium position.

This year the premium safety is Malaki Starks. He should be way out of range for the Bills. If somehow he falls to striking distance because he plays safety, I'd pull the trigger. Exactly what our defense needs.

 

[Dubi Doo]

[/QUOTE]

If there's one position, other than DL which is obvious, that I'd endorse them throwing some money at a young FA or trading up for a splash player, it's safety. How many defenses have we seen get serious shots in the arm because of a safety the last few years. Hamilton. Branch. DeJean (more of a NB but wrecks the game in the same way). Moreover, McDermott's defense was at it's best when we had two good safeties. Obviously a game wrecking DE is everyone's pipe dream. But those are hard to find. Safety is much cheaper in both FA and draft investment and it's so easy for me to imagine a ball hawk paired with Bishop giving this defense a serious shot in the arm.

I wanted DeJean so badly. Even over Coleman. I'm hoping Coleman progresses into a impact player. DeJean could be an All Pro, though. Pain.

As for the Bills vs Chiefs, we're just running into one of the greatest coaching + QB combos ever. Let's just hope we get 1 from the Allen era because it's far from guaranteed. There are so many great QBs in the conference.

In the meantime, just enjoy shitting on 95% of the league. The other 5% will be the thorns in our sides.

Cheers everyone! It's been a fun year. We'll be a great team again next year. Pray the football gods have mercy, and deliver us a championship.

 

[Krieger Bot]

They usually don't even have one NT. Daquan Jones is hardly a big space eater. And when he's gone out and gotten someone like Linval McDermott barely played him. It's clear McDermott prefers even his 1-tech to be more of a gap shooter than a space clogger. Not sure if he'll ever move off that.

I know a lot of people want a big NT, but I'm not sure adding one would make much of a difference. The Bills run defense is 4th in EPA/play against, and 9th in success rate.** Their gap shooting scheme is working just fine in defending the run.

Their larger issues on defense are in coverage IMO (it's just one metric, but we have the second lowest team coverage grade on PFF -- ahead of only the Raiders). Which is not surprising given how much turnover there's been in the second and third levels of the defense over the past 2 years.

**I usually don't count week 18 when I run these stats, since half the league isn't trying that week. I also take out situations where one team has a 80%+ win probability, as your playcalling is very different under those circumstances.

I'll say more in the new thread that's coming.......(monday or tuesday)

But I am not on the re-sign Bernard train.

Yeah, same here. It's fine to be an undersized linebacker with the way the game is played today. But you really need to be a high end coverage guy if you're going to try to play LB at just 224 pounds. And...Bernard isn't that either. He should be fighting for a starting position next year IMO. Not being given a contract extension.

 

[Krieger Bot]

Nah this is bullshit. The Chiefs offense played down to their opposition for much of the year with two score leads (certainly in the second half of the year). Whenever their offense has needed it, they've gotten it. Against anyone (except us in the first meeting, though being down two scores put them in impossible mode in that game)

Let's also not pretend that the Chiefs are the same team right now as they were in, say, week 5, when Justin Watson led their WRs in snaps (he had 9 snaps tonight, for reference). They are healthier, their young guys have gotten better, and they are playing much better football right now than they were for most of the season.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

Been a Bills fan since 1990 when I was 5 and got to watch Norwood miss wide right. Tonight felt like that kind of a gut punch. Between Kincaid biffing it at the end there, the 4th that Allen converted with his forward progress, and that pass in the 1st half that was bizarrely called a completion. Just cursed Bills stuff, man...

 

[Krieger Bot]

Kincaid isn’t a massive bust like Elam but definitely not justifying what Beane sold him as.

I even give Elam a bit of a pass today. Did he get picked on when he came in? Absolutely. But every veteran QB goes after the guy who just came into the game. How about we don't leave him one-on-one in man coverage play-after-play while he's trying to get his feet wet in the middle of the game? Maybe give him some safety help. In that situation, I'm much less concerned about an aging Kareem Hunt beating me because my box is too light.

 

[zenthusiast]

The fade to coleman on X and goal made me want to shoot myself

 

[Krieger Bot]

Brady was very lackluster these playoffs

Too conservative against the Ravens

Awful against the Chiefs. Pitch to Ty Johnson? Screen on 3rd and long?

Too conservative today too. There was a stretch of 26 plays where we didn't attempt a pass that traveled more than 2 yards in the air. That's an offense you call for Trent Dilfer. Not Josh Allen. That conservatism is Brady's kryptonite.

 

[Krieger Bot]

The fade to coleman on X and goal made me want to shoot myself

Against McDuffie too if memory serves. I don't understand that one. Felt like a panic throw by Josh, rather than just letting the routes play out on the left hand side of the field.

 

[zenthusiast]

eventually they will stop giving up 35 points per game to the chiefs in the playoffs and maybe then they can actually win

Until that point we will be tortured over and over

 

[Corto]

OK, so... It's 7.53 AM, game started 00.30h my time, and ended, I don't know, 3-3.5 hours ago. Haven't slept, can't sleep.

So in short, acknowledging all the misshaps and missplays, all the things that the Bills could've done better:
- Brady's playcalling (too passive IMO and then not giving Cook a run on the last drive)
- Kincaid's drop
- defense which was carved up a couple of times (but it's been a "we get turnovers" D all year)
- no Rapp and Benford out
- insisting on the QB sneak / tush push when the Chiefs were obviously prepared for it
- etc etc.

Being aware of all that, still...
Josh got that 4th and 1 and I can't get over that. THAT'S the game (very likely) right there.
I was 99% sure he got it from the first couple replay angles, and a 100% sure from the overhead.
That's the SEASON, for BOTH teams... And the NFL bottles the call.

The Worthy catch was maybe even more inexcusable. OK, there was a flag for Hamlin on the field, but the Chiefs got 15 free yards out of it. But I have never seen that, a receiver with one hand on the ball and the ball hitting the ground, and the refs calling it a catch. I have never ever seen that gives as a catch - because it isn't one.

This one hurts. Partly cause the boys were close, partly cause I was sure Josh got the 4th and 1 and the game was there for the taking.

Great season, horrible ending.

They need to use the offseason to get bigger and better on D. Relying on turnovers is very shaky ground and eventually loses you some big games (who knows what happens with the seeding if the Rams don't score 40+ points, for example).

Superbowl... Go Eagles I guess... Eww.

 

[Ace]

I’ve lived through four straight Super Bowl losses, a 17 year playoff drought, the Chiefs/refs/McDermott D playoff era, wide right, home run throwback, 13 seconds, no goal, the Kevyn Adams do nothing GM era that never ends, running every good player out of town and watching them lift cups and a 14 year and ongoing NHL playoff drought

The curse is real.

Let’s start burning things down.

 

[Ace]

I'm not 100% sure how I missed that replay in real time. But holy christ.......that's going right up there with Charles Clay's drop to not win that Miami game.

That guy is the biggest investment they have in an offensive weapon on the roster.

And the defense is still the problem.

It’s time to question how to get out of it. McDermott can’t stop KC in the playoffs. He can’t. He just can’t. We traded them the Mahomes and Worthy picks and they beat us tonight. They traded up to beat us to an all pro corner and we got Elam instead. We lose to them at the draft as consistently as we lose to them in the playoffs.

Every level of this organization…except for Josh Allen…and today James Cook…is Kansas City’s bitch. Beane is their bitch on draft day. McDermott is their bitch in the playoffs. His defense is their bitch. Our special teams are their bitch. Our receiving weapons are nonexistent so they’re everyone’s bitch. We just had a season where MACK HOLLINS led the team in receiving tds. Our outside receiving options are the worst in the league. The whole thing. With a bad defense. What have they been building?

How we fixing that?

I mean…stop helping them draft who they want is the next possible chance to stop being their bitch…but the McDermott thing doesn’t end.

 

[Ehran]

I hope the Eagles smash the ever loving f*** out of KC.

Yes. I'm bitter. f*** 'em.

 

[Corto]

Nah this is bullshit. The Chiefs offense played down to their opposition for much of the year with two score leads (certainly in the second half of the year). Whenever their offense has needed it, they've gotten it. Against anyone (except us in the first meeting, though being down two scores put them in impossible mode in that game)

I mean, this just isn't true.
- they won the Denver game on a blocked FG (not because their offense stepped up)
- they won the Raiders game on a muffed LV snap, one play away from shooting a game-winning FG (not because their offense stepped up)

Those two are just non-negotiable one-offs.

They also won:
- the Ravens game cause Likely's toe was 1 inch too big
- the Bengals game on a 4th and 16 on a pass-interference call (lets say it was PI, though I've seen those not called in big games)
- the very next game the Falcons game where a Falcons did not get a blatant PI call (much more obvious than the Bengals one)
- I think it was against the Chargers on a doink FG that went in... I mean, it's fine, you expect the kicker to make it - but a LOT of doinks don't doink the right way

Look, great teams "make their own luck" and corny phrases like that.
But the amount of actual one-off WTF plays and the fact that they get 2-3 iffy ref calls a game... Make a team that's already a champion very hard to beat.
Also, Jawaan Taylor is a one-man flag crew - the man can be flagged on every single play for false start... Yet somehow he never is (or very rarely).

I am salty, yes. But not wrong IMO.

 

[OkimLom]

We’ve gone as far as McDermott, his idea of a defense, and this coaching staff will take us. It’s just not it.

 

[Der Jaeger]

The best thing the Bills did this past offseason, though inadvertent, was get younger. That would be my big push:

• Re-sign Mack, Gilliam, and Johnson, but otherwise let most of the UFAs walk
  • Don't even consider re-signing Douglas, Hamlin, Austin Johnson
  • Only re-sign Cooper if he's dirt cheap
• Cut Von and either cut or force pay cuts on Daquan and Epenesa
• Figure out a way to make Knox's cap hit not 14 million
• Prioritize Benford, Bernard, and Shakir for extensions, consider trading Rousseau if you're not going to be able to pay him too
• Spam defense in the draft, especially on DL.
• Other than plugging small holes, use FA to take some value swings on young guys, no more olds

Good post. Only thing I’d add is my perennial ask for a big, short yardage back. Plenty of them always available in free agency.

They usually don't even have one NT. Daquan Jones is hardly a big space eater. And when he's gone out and gotten someone like Linval McDermott barely played him. It's clear McDermott prefers even his 1-tech to be more of a gap shooter than a space clogger. Not sure if he'll ever move off that.

Tyleik Williams is the McDermott 1DT.

Kyle Hamilton and Brian Branch were both considered top end talent that fell in the draft because they didn't play a premium position.

This year the premium safety is Malaki Starks. He should be way out of range for the Bills. If somehow he falls to striking distance because he plays safety, I'd pull the trigger. Exactly what our defense needs.

Xavier Watts?

I wanted DeJean so badly. Even over Coleman. I'm hoping Coleman progresses into a impact player. DeJean could be an All Pro, though. Pain.

As for the Bills vs Chiefs, we're just running into one of the greatest coaching + QB combos ever. Let's just hope we get 1 from the Allen era because it's far from guaranteed. There are so many great QBs in the conference.

In the meantime, just enjoy shitting on 95% of the league. The other 5% will be the thorns in our sides.

Cheers everyone! It's been a fun year. We'll be a great team again next year. Pray the football gods have mercy, and deliver us a championship.

I like Coleman but wanted DeJean or Sweat at 33.

 

[HaNotsri]

Why is that surprising? Is it that easy to replace Brady / Babbich / McDermott with a staff which is hands-down better than Nagy / Spagnola / Reid?

Exactly

No. THey are in really good shape to be a high playoff seed. Beyond that, high playoff seed teams need luck (turnovers for or against), stay injury free, and face playoff opponents they match up well against.

Douglas has likely aged out / won't be extended/renewed. I don't think Bishop and/or Rapp need to be replaced.

Bills hardly ran it back again. Beane clearly did not do that this season.

Agree.

Excellent post. Agree with your 1st, 2nd, 3rd bullets.
I'd add Hollins to your list of extensions.
Agree on staying young, not pursuing aging vets.
I'd like the Bills to get another "missile" at safety. Maybe that's Bishop, maybe not.

==================
The Kincaid "non-catch" on 4th and 5... the ball was a wounded duck Allen heaved up there. Kincaid had to dive back a body length and the ball was not spiraling when it reached his hands; it was 90 degrees turned. Yes, he could have caught it, but I'm not going to say he should have caught it.

Bills D-line could have been far more impactful.

REally disliked the refereeing in this one. The non-penalty possession and placement calls against BUF were very lopsided. I also find it hard to believe Alec Anderson failed to report as eligible.

Look at the box score.
Very even game. Every stat.
Play it 9 more times, Bills win 5 and lose 4 more.

Chiefs have shitty uniforms.

As a 1st place team, Bills play five 1st place teams next season. All three other AFC division winners, the cross-conference full-division slate, which obviously includes a division winner, and the Bills 17th game next season is the 1st place Eagles, in the same way the Lions were the 17th game this season.

So the Bills will play this year's Super Bowl winner in HIghmark stadium next season, guaranteed.

100% agree. One of these games came down to a literal coinflip, we are fighting a dynasty in the playoffs.

This season we crushed Dolphins and Jets, teams some people had above us. Those teams have tried to change and improve but we stomp them over and over.

We beat the mvp and a nightmare matchup in the playoffs. Some experts even thought we could lose in the wildcard round.

Making huge changes to staff likely takes us further away from the super bowl. We are not as good as the Chiefs. Their management team is better in every single department but they are also the best in the league.

We need to make incremental improvements and hopefully we get another opportunity or two to go all the way.

This season was a step in the right direction after hitting the reset button.

 

[K8fool]

And for guys to f***ing make plays in the biggest moments. Ultimately, that's what it comes down to: our guys don't make the plays when they matter most.

Eli Manning won a Super Bowl because David Tyree of all people made a miracle catch.

Josh Allen is going home again because Dalton Kincaid couldn't make a tough, but makeable catch. Meanwhile Xavier Worthy made the play to take the ball away from Bishop. Their DL made the play on the tush pushes. In the critical moments, their guys find ways to make the plays, and ours don't.

we're going home for one reason Brady had spagnola dead if he stopped trying to sneak Josh left or throw down field after winning conservatively w the amazing effort of cook scoring even though he was bear at the goal line
it starteed at the ravens where he lost two drives over running click refusing to target Cooper Coleman or hollins or Samue down field as they are stacking box

it's sickening the lack of balls not on Kincaid Go down swinging McD trying not lose or keep a lead instead of scoring fast occasionally giving game to our D

fook that poosy play calling invomptave putting ball in Josh hands rolling left on second down mixing anything up

disgusting incompetence

players balles out and d overcame banford

this is all coaching f*** u McD yet out

 

[K8fool]

Cook made the play of the game. Hollins had an insane catch. Josh threw a miracle pass that Kincaid failed to catch.

We survived Baltimore on a drop despite the MVP putting together a great drive. Ravens missed two point conversions, now the Bills did the same.

The biggest moments are defined by the winning team.

It sucks to lose against the Chiefs but considering the team is in a re-tool with massive dead cap this was a great performance.

Great team effort Chiefs as well this is all on McD Brady b.s. trying to perfectly run clock w same FOOKING PLAY that spagnola stacked line and stopped sickening