Buffalo Bills Season over. Ow.

[ValJamesDuex]

 

[ValJamesDuex]

Josh on wgr: Has a bit of beat up hand/wrist (new injury before halftime). Will have to discus with docs.

 

[Jim Bob]

Wasn't Dorsey offense top in the league in epa?

Bills fire OC Dorsey after MNF loss, tab J. Brady

The Bills have fired offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey and named Joe Brady as his interim replacement.

www.espn.com

But under Dorsey's time as offensive coordinator, the Bills have struggled to find offensive consistency and put together drives, with 21% of drives ending in a turnover since Week 5, last in the NFL (after 12% ended in a turnover through the first four games). Buffalo's offense has not scored more than 25 points since Week 4 and turnovers have been a major issue, especially for Allen, who leads the NFL with 14 turnovers and 11 interceptions.

"Josh and I speak daily. And this decision was made by me alone [to fire Dorsey]," McDermott said. "Beyond that, it's Josh's responsibility and job to come out and help Coach Brady formulate the game plan and to come out and execute the game plan and take care of the football and be our offense more than anything."

Allen's turnovers are two more than the next closest players (Desmond Ridder and Mac Jones) and his 33 turnovers since Dorsey became coordinator are six more than the next player (Trevor Lawrence).

Statistically, the Bills' offense looks among the best in the NFL, ranking third in offensive EPA per play, second in completion percentage (70.3%) and third in yards per play (6.0). But the reality for the Bills is that performing at a high level wasn't consistently happening despite a relatively healthy offense, and frustration was clearly building since the offense took a turn for the worse after Week 5.

They were 3rd in EPA/play when Dorsey was let go last season.

But, they were also turning the ball over a lot and they did not have the balance that the offense had this season.

 

[Der Jaeger]

I like Watts and think he would be a good addition, but I think at this point he's more of a day 2 guy than a trade up in the first big splash type.


One thing that surprised me if how many Bills content creator types (Cover 1 folks, etc.) are already talking about WR as one of their top needs, a possible first round pick or high end FA signing, etc. Certainly if Cooper leaves they need to replace him. But uhm, was I imagining us just having the best offense in the nfl? I just can't even fathom looking at this team and what they did this year and even this game and going "yep what they need is one elite WR to push them over the edge!"

As for McDermott, firing him talk is silly. What I do wish is he would embrace the stuff he's good at (leader of me, team organization, etc.) and become more of a Dan Campbell type coach and hand the defenses reigns fully over to an Xs and Os defensive guy. Maybe it's Babbich. Maybe it's a more seasoned Leslie Frasier type. I don't know. But while I like McDermott the head coach, I increasingly don't like McDermott the DC.

Agree. If Beane gets a WR, someone like Darius Slayton should be on his radar. Or trading for Jalin Wyatt. Boundary receiver with speed who can free up the other receivers.

I think McDermott is going to let go even more next season with Babich and Brady. And it'll be a good thing, at least for a season.

I think the expectation is that Cooper walks given his age and likely cost. That opens up a hole at starting boundary WR. I mean, I really don't see them going into next year with just Coleman/Hollins/Samuel there again, considering they've already basically acknowledged that isn't good enough. Nor do I see them ponying up big money for a WR in free agency. That leaves the draft to fill the hole. Most likely in the first or second round.

Don't get me wrong, there are plenty of other holes on this team. Hell, they were probably starting 4 guys at LB/CB/S yesterday that wouldn't start on 20+ teams in the league. They'll most likely need to replace Von. And it would be great if they could start getting guys cooking behind the likes of Dion/Daquan/Taron. But I would still expect WR to be pretty high on their draft day shopping list.

I don't think this will be the direction at WR at all. Coleman is going to be expected to step into some of Cooper's role. The Bills need a boundary receiver who can pull coverage deep. They won't need a high draft pick for that. And looking at the draft, they're aren't any Brian Thomas' in the first round anyway. Not even in the 2nd, really.

I know folks are feeling down on the Kincaid/Coleman picks right now. But the offense just had it's best year in forever and they were apart of that. So maybe they're good picks that are working just fine, despite the lackluster production.

I long for the pre-social media days when we gave a player three season before making a judgment on them. I still think Coleman and Kincaid are going to be amazing.

Kincaid/Coleman aren’t bad players but I think it’s fair to say that you’d like to see more out of your last two top draft picks in big games like this.

See above. They're going to get better and this game will only serve to help.

 

[Willgamesh]

1. D-Line needs more impact why I was advocating paying whatever it took for Myles Garrett.I did like Eds game last night.
2. Wow is our CB situation dire we need 2. CB looking like a draft steal to not being able to stay on the field as well as Douglas dropping off a cliff.
3. The Worthy vs Keon/Carter stuff still needs time to play out. His play design here would be nothing like it is in KC. His big catch should have been incomplete.
4. Not having Rapp clearly hurt but he's another player who is getting older and is always injured. His play style will just lead to more of this as well as hurting teammates.
5. TE's Knoxs cap hit for what he does is laughable. Dalton has to make that catch.
6. James Cook loved how we stopped running him when he was averaging 6ypc. Was so infuriating watching the sneak over and over.

 

[KiwiGriff]

Brady will study this game and learn, I hope. I know the Bills were outcoached, but remembering this is a team on the way to three in a row. Everyone is losing to them. Rampant coaching changes feel like they would only lead to a step back.

Defense seems to be where the Bills get stomped on. I keep hearing Patrick beats Josh. That he has his measure. A stupid line of thought. I'm pretty sure QBs don't play on the field at the same time against each other. Patrick and Andy have the measure of the defense.

They gave up 40 to the Rams, 40 to the Lions, 30 to the Chiefs. That isn't a winning plan.

Overhaul the D-Line. In fact upgrade in all positions. I'd say coaching too but who knows how much of the D is Babich and how much is McD.

 

[zenthusiast]

Agree. If Beane gets a WR, someone like Darius Slayton should be on his radar. Or trading for Jalen Wyatt. Boundary receiver with speed who can free up the other receivers.

I think McDermott is going to let go even more next season with Babich and Brady. And it'll be a good thing, at least for a season.

I don't think this will be the direction at WR at all. Coleman is going to be expected to step into some of Cooper's role. The Bills need a boundary receiver who can pull coverage deep. They won't need a high draft pick for that. And looking at the draft, they're aren't any Brian Thomas' in the first round anyway. Not even in the 2nd, really.

I long for the pre-social media days when we gave a player three season before making a judgment on them. I still think Coleman and Kincaid are going to be amazing.

See above. They're going to get better and this game will only serve to help.

I mean, some players just don’t make that progression. Coleman could easily be Devante Parker 2.0, which wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world, but still not what you want for that value. Kincaid I’m more bullish on but considering we’re posting on HF Sabres I think we all know development isn’t a guarantee

 

[Der Jaeger]

I went on to Spotrac and looked at what Beane can do to improve the Bills. The Bills cap situation is way better than last season. I don't think we'll see the blood letting we saw with last season's hard reset. They're still going to eat $4M in dead cap for White, but it's a way better situation overall.

Using the roster management tool, I re-structured Allen, Miller, Knox, and Samuel with no void years, with the rookie salaries counted into the overall cap. I got to almost $17M in cap space. Not a ton but not bad. If I just released Miller outright, it's $14M with $15M in his dead cap hit.

I don't think there's going to be massive cuts like last season. Nor should there be. I think the roster is in a good spot. I'd look to re-sign Cooper (if he takes a huge hometown discount), Hollins, Gilliam, Ty Johnson, Ferguson, and maybe Phillips. A lot of potential still in this roster with a lot of draft picks coming.

Agree. If Beane gets a WR, someone like Darius Slayton should be on his radar. Or trading for Jalin Wyatt. Boundary receiver with speed who can free up the other receivers.

Check that. Slayton's projected cap hit is arund $15M. Too much.

I like the idea of moving Elam to the Giants for Hyatt. That'd improve the Bills a bit, and I think the Giants are looking for corners. Hyatt has been a disappointment, but he's fast.

 

[misterchainsaw]

I see the hot takes are still flying around a bit. Let me add fuel to the fire.

Brady's offensive game plan was really good last night. This cherry picking of a handful of plays throughout the game to criticize gets tiresome, particularly when you consider how much power the QB has to switch to a run, switch to one of their "check" plays, or shift coverages on the line. Often what is called is not what ends up being run. Criticizing individual plays is missing the forest for the trees.

But what the Bills overall offensive game plan did is largely neuter KC's pass rush/blitz package - they had 2 sacks and one was on a dropped snap by Allen. The Bills' empty possessions were largely self-inflicted/poor execution as opposed to the defense shutting them down. They moved the ball with short passes and hit the Chiefs on blitzes downfield at least twice (to Hollins) as well as finding Shakir downfield in a void. The halfbacks were also open on checkdowns quite a bit and frankly Allen could have used them more. The run-pass balance was still real close to 50-50 in a game they were trailing for quite a bit of.

And to get to the sneaks, they did stop running them on 4th and 1. Although I find it hard to believe KC did anything schemeatic and they were just beating our guys at the point of attack, which is somewhat disappointing to say the least. Then when it got to 4th and a foot, they ran it again, because needing a foot is not needing a yard. And frankly, they got it if it weren't for the league's garbage replay review office.

 

[Jim Bob]

 

[brian_griffin]

this wasn't on coaching yesterday.

Stone Hands Kincaid is the reason the Bills lost. He makes the catch, they likely score the TD there

Kincaid reversed his body and dove back a full body length towards a ball which was wobbly and thrown behind him. Agree if he makes the catch they are in a great position, but it was no small feat to be in position to catch it.

There was a lot of that, the panic throwing to guys who were well covered. Could see the writing on the wall when he nearly threw three interceptions on two passes to start the game. Just none of the sharpness, poise and swagger, we looked beat before they ever scored a point against us. Losing Benford was the nail in the coffin, we can’t win with Elam in a key role, not ever.

Agreed.

I have a hard time crediting Brady for turnovers. I think ball security was emphasized but I don't think he specifically did much to help it.


Brady called dumb stuff multiple times in big moments this year. It felt like most of our big plays were Josh chucking down field and receivers making contested catches. We ran rarely seemed to have those drives good teams have against us, full of 7 yard passes to guys who have been schemed into space

Setting a game plan, formations, personnel, etc., which reduce risk of turnover is absolutely something an OC can partially contribute.

I agree. I don’t think anyone needs to be fired (other than smiley) but they need some fresh ideas on defense.

One thing they have to figure out - stop spotting teams 7 points to start every game. For whatever reason the defense always seems to struggle on the opening drives of games. Way too often they let the other team march right down the field. Then they seem to dial in after that, but it continues to put them in a hole. This has been going on all the way back to Leslie Frazier, so it’s not a new issue. It’s weird how it’s continued with both McDermott and Babich calling plays (last season and this one).

I also think they just need more talent on defense (and offense). I feel like the Bills have very few true difference makers on defense (and especially the D line). I don’t think there’s a single player on defense that other teams have to game plan for. The coaching staff always gets them playing well as a collective unit but they need some game breakers. They could use some on offense too.

I like Beane, but I think he needs to step up a bit more too. He drafts pretty well, but not quite as well as some of the other contenders. He really needs to hit some home runs in the draft.

IIRC, the prior year they didn't give up a game-opening TD drive until something like game #13 of the season. Or maybe that was 2022.
Things ebb and flow.

 

[1point21Gigawatts]

Brady will study this game and learn, I hope. I know the Bills were outcoached, but remembering this is a team on the way to three in a row. Everyone is losing to them. Rampant coaching changes feel like they would only lead to a step back.

Defense seems to be where the Bills get stomped on. I keep hearing Patrick beats Josh. That he has his measure. A stupid line of thought. I'm pretty sure QBs don't play on the field at the same time against each other. Patrick and Andy have the measure of the defense.

They gave up 40 to the Rams, 40 to the Lions, 30 to the Chiefs. That isn't a winning plan.

Overhaul the D-Line. In fact upgrade in all positions. I'd say coaching too but who knows how much of the D is Babich and how much is McD.

And a team whose first regular season loss was to Buffalo. KC, like it or not, is an elite team. I just wish someone would slap Patrick Mahomes because if there was ever a person who needed a good open palm slap....

 

[Selanne00008]

Throwing my hat in the ring:

- Tush push was a real struggle. No bootleg? No fake push and hit the TE or RB for a quick out? I was waiting for it ALL year.
- The Kincaid 4th down desperation catch was not easy.
- I did think they kept spotting the ball back too much for us. As Portnoy said, what if the ball was given to the ref on the far side of the field on the 4th down? I believed Josh got it, and Kincaid even on 3rd down.
- I feel for Benford man. He looked TOAST in the cart
- I only felt good ONE time all game. Up 1, with the ball and driving. The entire first half I felt like it wasn't going our way at all and KC was ready. Props to a few adjustments and battling back for the lead. We just can't seem to put the knee on the neck when we need to.
- REALLY wish Bishop would have came down with that ball. It looked like he hawked it and had it. Easily could have been ruled INC as well.
- WAY too many Mahomes rushes for 7-13 yards. Was Milano or anyone spying at all on those? Or were those man D schemes?
- Man Cook looked nice. i'm never about resigning RBs to second contracts. Wish we gave him the ball even more yesterday.


We got where we did with 70 million in dead cap. I'm guessing we will probly be in the 20-30 million dead cap area come late summer?

What are needs? CB, DL, WR?

I do think Rapp and Benford could have made a difference.

I will, i'm sure, come around and watch the SB. But, I have thought about not watching.

As much as Eagles fans are insufferable at times, I'd like to see Saquon get his, to spite Giant fans and that organization. Seems like a good dude and he's GREAT.

 

[misterchainsaw]

IIRC, the prior year they didn't give up a game-opening TD drive until something like game #13 of the season. Or maybe that was 2022.
Things ebb and flow.

Personally, I think the idea we struggled against the fresh game plan when we didn't know what exactly was coming points to a talent deficit, and the ability to adjust and rally as the game went on points to good coaching adjustments. You never know exactly how a team is going to attack you until the game starts.

Of our back 7 that played the vast majority of the game last night, I'd call 3 of them starting calibre players (T. Johnson, Milano, and Douglas). I've soured a bit on Bernard on a down to down basis but he's at least close. But on the flip side of that coin I'm not sure Milano was back to full speed/instincts back to his elite level either.

 

[misterchainsaw]

And a team whose first regular season loss was to Buffalo. KC, like it or not, is an elite team. I just wish someone would slap Patrick Mahomes because if there was ever a person who needed a good open palm slap....

Yep, and they were much, much better towards the end of the season on offense. People want to pretend they're still the offense that struggled through a lot of 2023 and the first half of 2024, but Hollywood Brown getting healthy and adding DHop gave them just enough on the edges where you had to be more "pick your poison" and opened up space for guys like Worthy.

Over their last 10 games of the season, their opposition had the lead and the ball in just 2 games. Against us in week 11 (for most of the game), and 22-21 yesterday. Sure they played with their food a bit, but towards the end of the season they got ahead multiple scores and stayed that way. If they actually needed 30 points in any of those last 4 games (HOU x2, PIT, CLE) they would have gotten there - and those aren't terrible defenses.

 

[1specter]

This loss really is the worst one. The other ones hurt, but this one in a different way that's going to sit with me for a while. I really did feel like despite the team's deficiencies they were actually better on paper than KC for once. And while I want to have hope in Beane, his recent drafting leaves a lot to be desired. Feels like there are too many holes still

 

[zenthusiast]

they probably should have won that game, but also probably should have lost to the ravens. Agony and ecstasy I suppose

 

[1specter]

 

[TehDoak]

 

[Zman5778]

Jesus. Hopefully he comes back healthy and closer to the version we hoped for this year.

 

[JLewyB]

Almost typed up a post yesterday about Kincaid possibly fighting through an injury because he acted injured at 3 times a game this year. Shouldve just been put on IR but just like the Sabres we actively put our players at 70% at they actively hurt the team

 

[Zman5778]

Here's the end zone version of that last 4th down play.

If Hollins doesn't slow up because he sees Kincaid........there's a pretty solid chance that he catches that easy.

 

[zenthusiast]

Here's the end zone version of that last 4th down play.

If Hollins doesn't slow up because he sees Kincaid........there's a pretty solid chance that he catches that easy.

From that angle it looks like it might have been meant for him

 

[zenthusiast]

Kincaid walking wounded makes sense but if he’s going to be noticeably off his game I’d rather he just rest and recover while they work with Knox

 

[Der Jaeger]

Kincaid walking wounded makes sense but if he’s going to be noticeably off his game I’d rather he just rest and recover while they work with Knox

That's a hard ask. Guy wants to win and will do whatever to help his team.

I predict he's going to come back next season with a vengeance and take everything out on the league.