Who would you want at 3rd overall?

[Juxtaposer]

My mistake, I forgot he didn't make that team either.

And like I said he had a better 5v5 xGF% than his teammates. I see a lot of room for growth personally, including his point totals regressing to the mean after this year.

Was just saying I'd be a lot more concerned that it took Misa until his 3rd season in the OHL to finally produce at an elite level, than Hagen's "underwhelming" year in the NCAA.

Misa was busy winning a Memorial Cup championship instead of going to the U18. Spouting off more nonsense about Misa, I see.

Misa OHL season 1: 56 points in 45 games as a 15 year old, outscoring Connor McDavid's 15 year old OHL season.
Misa OHL season 2: 75 points in 67 games as a 16 year old (so keep in mind this is elite production for a 16 year old in the OHL), while playing out of position on the third line for a stacked Memorial Cup-winning team, still lead the team in scoring for a forward.
Misa OHL season 3: Lead the OHL in scoring as a 17 year old.

If you see more upside in Hagens, great. I don't see it, and neither to scouts. You must be truly exceptional.

Hagens played with Leonard and Perreault most of the season, and when he was separated from them he faced softer competition. It's no shock that his xGF% (which I will be needing a source for, now that I think about it) was a little higher than those guys.

 

[LilLeeroy]

Misa was busy winning a Memorial Cup championship instead of going to the U18. Spouting off more nonsense about Misa, I see.

Misa OHL season 1: 56 points in 45 games as a 15 year old, outscoring Connor McDavid's 15 year old OHL season.
Misa OHL season 2: 75 points in 67 games as a 16 year old (so keep in mind this is elite production for a 16 year old in the OHL), while playing out of position on the third line for a stacked Memorial Cup-winning team, still lead the team in scoring for a forward.
Misa OHL season 3: Lead the OHL in scoring as a 17 year old.

If you see more upside in Hagens, great. I don't see it, and neither to scouts. You must be truly exceptional.

Hagens played with Leonard and Perreault most of the season, and when he was separated from them he faced softer competition. It's no shock that his xGF% (which I will be needing a source for, now that I think about it) was a little higher than those guys.

He did not play with Leonard and Perreault most of the season, he played with them for a handful of games to start the season and I think that line was reunited for maybe one or two games the rest of the year.

I don't know just thinking that the prospect that has been projected as the best player in this class for years has maintained that position I don't think makes me exceptional, that seems a little passive aggressive.

 

[Juxtaposer]

He did not play with Leonard and Perreault most of the season, he played with them for a handful of games to start the season and I think that line was reunited for maybe one or two games the rest of the year.

I don't know just thinking that the prospect that has been projected as the best player in this class for years has maintained that position I don't think makes me exceptional, that seems a little passive aggressive.

He played with Leonard and Perreault for 75% of the season. All the way until just before the WJC, a couple games after, and then in Februaryish he played with Stiga and a rotating third, and then for a few games it was Stiga-Hagens-Perreault. He was reunited with them at least five games before the Hockey East tourney. I may not have my dates perfect but that's about how it went.

The point is that Hagens didn't maintain his standing over the season. He is exactly the same player I watched at the U18 last spring. I don't see how you can possibly pretend that's not concerning and has some impact on his ultimate upside.

I see you're completely ignoring my rebuttal of your made-up Misa claims. Checks out.

 

[LilLeeroy]

He played with Leonard and Perreault for 75% of the season. All the way until just before the WJC, a couple games after, and then in Februaryish he played with Stiga and a rotating third, and then for a few games it was Stiga-Hagens-Perreault. He was reunited with them at least five games before the Hockey East tourney. I may not have my dates perfect but that's about how it went.

The point is that Hagens didn't maintain his standing over the season. He is exactly the same player I watched at the U18 last spring. I don't see how you can possibly pretend that's not concerning and has some impact on his ultimate upside.

I see you're completely ignoring my rebuttal of your made-up Misa claims. Checks out.

Looks like they were split up on the 19th game of the year and then reunited on the 32nd so I guess I was wrong sorry. So it was only 1/3rd of the season.

 

[coooldude]

Current state of Sharks HFB with two weeks until the lottery, not much prospect action, no new public releases of scout insight or analysis, and nothing else to talk about:

Can't wait until the summer arguments about Jumbo and Marleau and Goodrow and Kovalenko/Kostin! But honestly can't wait until the damn lottery.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Looks like they were split up on the 19th game of the year and then reunited on the 32nd so I guess I was wrong sorry. So it was only 1/3rd of the season.

So to recount:

1. You were wrong about Hagens and Misa going head to head at the U18
2. You were wrong about why Misa wasn't at the U18 and suggested it was because he wasn't good enough to make it as evidence that Hagens is better
3. You were wrong about Misa never having elite production until this year in the OHL
4. You were wrong about how many games Hagens played with and without Leonard and Perreault, suggesting that you didn't exactly watch a ton of his games
5. Once your claims about Misa were disproven, you decided to ignore that evidence

So tell me, how am I supposed to have a good-faith discussion about this with you?

 

[CanadienShark]

Frondell is intriguing. Hagens is more redundant, but if he's most talented, go for it - let Smith be a full time winger with Macklin. Martone is another intriguing one, but I'm not totally confident in him long term. On paper, he seems like the most obvious choice.

 

[CanadienShark]

I mean realistically is there a defenseman out there (never mind handedness) that is realistically available that you’d move 3rd overall for and the other team would accept that trade? Cause I just don’t see it.

I'd want something more, but totally open to a Nemec deal.

 

[LilLeeroy]

So to recount:

1. You were wrong about Hagens and Misa going head to head at the U18
2. You were wrong about why Misa wasn't at the U18 and suggested it was because he wasn't good enough to make it as evidence that Hagens is better
3. You were wrong about Misa never having elite production until this year in the OHL
4. You were wrong about how many games Hagens played with and without Leonard and Perreault, suggesting that you didn't exactly watch a ton of his games
5. Once your claims about Misa were disproven, you decided to ignore that evidence

So tell me, how am I supposed to have a good-faith discussion about this with you?

You know you don't have to be a jerk right? You said it was 75% of the year which was also wrong. You were also the one who posted Bader's model talking about how abnormal it is to have an elite draft year after not having an elite D-1 year

 

[Yummyshark]

I'd want something more, but totally open to a Nemec deal.

3OA way too much for him IMO, and not sure what NJ could add to this to make it better that they would be okay with. Honestly I think Nemec has a pretty high bust potential at this point, it's his D+4 coming up and he still hasn't yet shown he belongs. It's also concerning that his sophomore season was quite a bit worse than his rookie year and his defensive play was pretty bad.

Now if we are talking about Dal 1 + 33 + a B-tier prospect then sure, worth the risk (unlikely NJ will accept though). Not saying he's 100% gonna fail but he's definitely not worth his draft pedigree at this point and should be revalued accordingly. Also Kovocevic just signed a 5x4 deal and you already have Dougie and Pesce locked up to long term deals and Casey is still in the mix so NJ will probably be highly motivated to move him. Honestly not sure what the hell the Devils are doing with their defense. They also need to prepare room for the coming of the Quinn.

 

[DG93]

Current state of Sharks HFB with two weeks until the lottery, not much prospect action, no new public releases of scout insight or analysis, and nothing else to talk about:

View attachment 1020988

Can't wait until the summer arguments about Jumbo and Marleau and Goodrow and Kovalenko/Kostin! But honestly can't wait until the damn lottery.

Just wait until Goodrow gets named captain LOL (jk, I hope...)

 

[Juxtaposer]

You know you don't have to be a jerk right? You said it was 75% of the year which was also wrong. You were also the one who posted Bader's model talking about how abnormal it is to have an elite draft year after not having an elite D-1 year

I don't see how calling you out for making bad arguments is being a jerk, personally. When you make a bunch of claims in an argument that all turn out to be false because you point blank made them up for the purposes of arguing with me, I don't feel like I should be expected to coddle you.

If you want to quibble about a 7% difference, be my guest. I was reciting from memory so I'm pretty pleased that I was so close.

 

[Jargon]

The more I read about Frondell the more I’m starting to lean toward him over Martone. I mean Martone would be really exciting but I love the idea of Celebrini - Smith - Frondell down the center, that’s a hell of a spine down the middle. I think it feels a bit more balanced and every line can score in fun, different ways. If Frondell hits his ceiling, we have the option of putting Smith back on the wing. I don’t know, it’s tempting to build center-out.

 

[LilLeeroy]

I don't see how calling you out for making bad arguments is being a jerk, personally. When you make a bunch of claims in an argument that all turn out to be false because you point blank made them up for the purposes of arguing with me, I don't feel like I should be expected to coddle you.

If you want to quibble about a 7% difference, be my guest. I was reciting from memory so I'm pretty pleased that I was so close.

Because the point of the post was not to argue with (I honestly thought you ignored me years ago at this point), it was just to bring up that Hagens had a very good year at 5v5 and it is being underrated. He was also a key part of a gold medal while Misa was left at home to play with himself.

 

[coooldude]

Because the point of the post was not to argue with (I honestly thought you ignored me years ago at this point), it was just to bring up that Hagens had a very good year at 5v5 and it is being underrated. He was also a key part of a gold medal while Misa was left at home to play with himself.

I'm surprised you're as positive as you are on Hagens, but I do see the arguments and he is taking over from Martone as the most polarizing prospect in the top 10.

What's your take on the others available though? Let's say something crazy happens, we're at 3 and someone takes Hagens 2. Between Misa, Martone, Desnoyers, Frondell, Eklund, or someone else (O'Brien?), how do you rank them?

I've said it on this thread -- I don't like picking 3 at all but I guess Grier has them Schaefer, Misa, Martone, Frondell, Hagens, Desnoyer, Eklund (Eky might even be below like Smith or Mrtka or someone else).

I personall yprobably have them in similar order but tiers of Schaefer / gap / Misa / Frondell, Martone, Hagens / Desnoyer, Eklund, Smith, Aitcheson, Mrtka, etc etc etc .

 

[CanadienShark]

3OA way too much for him IMO, and not sure what NJ could add to this to make it better that they would be okay with. Honestly I think Nemec has a pretty high bust potential at this point, it's his D+4 coming up and he still hasn't yet shown he belongs. It's also concerning that his sophomore season was quite a bit worse than his rookie year and his defensive play was pretty bad.

Now if we are talking about Dal 1 + 33 + a B-tier prospect then sure, worth the risk (unlikely NJ will accept though). Not saying he's 100% gonna fail but he's definitely not worth his draft pedigree at this point and should be revalued accordingly. Also Kovocevic just signed a 5x4 deal and you already have Dougie and Pesce locked up to long term deals and Casey is still in the mix so NJ will probably be highly motivated to move him. Honestly not sure what the hell the Devils are doing with their defense. They also need to prepare room for the coming of the Quinn.

If we could build a package around 3rd overall for Mercer + Nemec, I'd be over the moon. Basically any prospect would be on the table aside from Dickinson, if it were me.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Because the point of the post was not to argue with (I honestly thought you ignored me years ago at this point), it was just to bring up that Hagens had a very good year at 5v5 and it is being underrated. He was also a key part of a gold medal while Misa was left at home to play with himself.

I lost a lot of my block list because of the server issues a few months ago. No idea if you were on it or not. But the point is that I believe in calling out mistruths and bad information in a discussion setting. Apologies if that isn't how you do things.

If we could build a package around 3rd overall for Mercer + Nemec, I'd be over the moon. Basically any prospect would be on the table aside from Dickinson, if it were me.

Really? I would be spitting mad if we traded #3 for Mercer and Nemec, never mind adding. I'm talking livid, "fire Grier" rhetoric.

 

[CanadienShark]

I lost a lot of my block list because of the server issues a few months ago. No idea if you were on it or not. But the point is that I believe in calling out mistruths and bad information in a discussion setting. Apologies if that isn't how you do things.


Really? I would be spitting mad if we traded #3 for Mercer and Nemec, never mind adding. I'm talking livid, "fire Grier" rhetoric.

Ok. Let's maybe not be so hyperbolic.

 

[sharski]

Current state of Sharks HFB with two weeks until the lottery, not much prospect action, no new public releases of scout insight or analysis, and nothing else to talk about:

View attachment 1020988

Can't wait until the summer arguments about Jumbo and Marleau and Goodrow and Kovalenko/Kostin! But honestly can't wait until the damn lottery.

We talk to each other like this because we're family and do it out of love for each other, I assure you

 

[Juxtaposer]

Ok. Let's maybe not be so hyperbolic.

I'm not being hyperbolic is the thing.

 

[CanadienShark]

I'm not being hyperbolic is the thing.

 

[LinkGaetz23]

I lost a lot of my block list because of the server issues a few months ago. No idea if you were on it or not. But the point is that I believe in calling out mistruths and bad information in a discussion setting. Apologies if that isn't how you do things.


Really? I would be spitting mad if we traded #3 for Mercer and Nemec, never mind adding. I'm talking livid, "fire Grier" rhetoric.

Does that extend to comparing USHL players in their D+2 years to AHL players performing at a far higher level or is your highness simply beyond reproach?

 

[Le Rosbeef]

Because the point of the post was not to argue with (I honestly thought you ignored me years ago at this point), it was just to bring up that Hagens had a very good year at 5v5 and it is being underrated. He was also a key part of a gold medal while Misa was left at home to play with himself.

I can't believe you didn't realise Jux is the board spokesperson and arbiter of correct opinions. Wind your neck in.

Hagens is being demonised by some because it's what people do. He's a solid prospect.

 

[matt trick]

I can't believe you didn't realise Jux is the board spokesperson and arbiter of correct opinions. Wind your neck in.

Hagens is being demonised by some because it's what people do. He's a solid prospect.

The reality is I think all there's about nine guys who could end up being the best prospect in the draft. Beyond Schaefer, I'd feel most comfortable betting on Misa's combination of upside (speed, goal scoring) and well-rounded skillset. Maybe not as high of hockey IQ, but I see a faster Couture.

1. Hagens could be Keller/Cooley or he could be Victor Arvidsson.
2. Martone could be Rantanen or he could be Nino Niederreiter
3. Desnoyers could be Eriksson Ek or Laughton
4. Frondell could be Stone or Nichuskin
5. McQueen could be Tage Thompson or back injuries could hold him back.
6. No idea on Mrtka, he's raw, but the physical package is perfect. Could be D. Hamilton, could be Oleksiak, could bust. Production is excellent, but not sure the skillset actually projects as a top pair offensive D, wouldn't be surprised if he get's converted to a defensive D.

Eklund could be right-handed William Eklund or...right-handed William Eklund. Seriously, young Ek looks to be a better goal scorer, and maybe a bit more gritty. Other than Schaefer and Misa, I think he's the safest, but also has less upside then the other top 10 (O'Brien, Martin, and Smith are likely also there).

It's the type of draft- perhaps even more than usual- where you're likely to look silly down the line. There are so many guys with broad projections.

I trust the Sharks will make a good pick. I trust a large section of the board won't love it. And, I trust that at least one of us will have had the right 'my guy' who ends up better than the Sharks pick. Regardless, I'm confident we'll be coming away with an excellent prospect.

 

[Stewie Griffin]

Really? I would be spitting mad if we traded #3 for Mercer and Nemec, never mind adding. I'm talking livid, "fire Grier" rhetoric.

Agreed, especially when factoring in what Jiricek just got, you shouldn't trade Nemec for a 3rd overall pick. Mercer also had a down year. I'd love both, but no where near at that cost.