Toggle sidebar

Who Wins The Rocket This Year?

Who will win the Rocket Richard Trophy in 2024-2025?

  • Total voters
    59
leafsfan5

leafsfan5

Registered User
Jun 14, 2014
14,868
25,917
jigglysquishy said:
Draisaitl seems most likely. Connor and Reinhart good bets too.

Matthews started too slow and missing 8 games will eliminate him
Click to expand...
Matthews missed 9 games in 21-22 coming off surgery and he had 6 in his first 13 games as he was getting back into form. He started with 5 in 13 this year. So, it's still possible, when he goes on his runs he's basically scoring every night and in a field where no one looks particularly strong he could definitely come back and take it

With that said, the Leafs are taking his injury very slow and want him back at 110% before he's in the lineup. I'd best against him winning due to that
 
  • Like
Reactions: Voight and authentic
Skolman

Skolman

Registered User
Feb 16, 2018
10,219
9,580
Manitoba
leafsfan5 said:
Matthews missed 9 games in 21-22 coming off surgery and he had 6 in his first 13 games as he was getting back into form. He started with 5 in 13 this year. So, it's still possible, when he goes on his runs he's basically scoring every night and in a field where no one looks particularly strong he could definitely come back and take it

With that said, the Leafs are taking his injury very slow and want him back at 110% before he's in the lineup. I'd best against him winning due to that
Click to expand...
Reinhart has 15 goals in 20 games.
Draisaitl has 15 goals in 21 games(13 even strength), that's with McDavid missing 4 games.

The Oilers PP is going to turn it around here at some point, I don't see how Matthews can realistically catch him.
 
leafsfan5

leafsfan5

Registered User
Jun 14, 2014
14,868
25,917
Skolman said:
Reinhart has 15 goals in 20 games.
Draisaitl has 15 goals in 21 games(13 even strength), that's with McDavid missing 4 games.

The Oilers PP is going to turn it around here at some point, I don't see how Matthews can realistically catch him.
Click to expand...
Reinhart is currently pacing for 62, for Matthews to match that he will have to comeback on Wednesday (which is his projected return) and score at a 73 goal pace. It is possible, if there's one guy who can score at that rate it's him as he basically did it last year. Regardless, I'd put the odds relatively low given the system we play + the leafs cautious nature with his injury

Also, Reinhart + Draisaitl are also at a stupidly high shooting%, even for the both of their standards. I'd expect some regression getting them down into the 50-60 goal range
 
  • Like
Reactions: Voight

Regal

Registered User
Mar 12, 2010
26,599
16,544
Vancouver
leafsfan5 said:
Reinhart is currently pacing for 62, for Matthews to match that he will have to comeback on Wednesday (which is his projected return) and score at a 73 goal pace. It is possible, if there's one guy who can score at that rate it's him as he basically did it last year. Regardless, I'd put the odds relatively low given the system we play + the leafs cautious nature with his injury

Also, Reinhart + Draisaitl are also at a stupidly high shooting%, even for the both of their standards. I'd expect some regression getting them down into the 50-60 goal range
Click to expand...

If anyone’s capable of coming back and winning it’s him. He’s shown a higher level when he’s on than anyone else and I wouldn’t be surprised if no one on this list tops 55 or so. It’ll be interesting to see where he’s at when he’s back because he won’t have that much leeway though.
 

Regal

Registered User
Mar 12, 2010
26,599
16,544
Vancouver
Skolman said:
Reinhart has 15 goals in 20 games.
Draisaitl has 15 goals in 21 games(13 even strength), that's with McDavid missing 4 games.

The Oilers PP is going to turn it around here at some point, I don't see how Matthews can realistically catch him.
Click to expand...

Draisaitl’s career high is 55, and he’s on pace for 59. The Oilers PP will no doubt heat up, but Draisaitl has never scored ES goals at this rate. He’s already at 13 and his career high is 31 but he only had 20 and 19 the last two years. He’s shooting almost 30% at ES when his shooting percentage at ES since his first 50 goal season in 18-19 is 17.2. That same shooting percentage would put him at 5 fewer ES goals on the year. The PP heating up will likely just keep up with his expected drop in ES goals. He might beat his career high this year, but I wouldn’t expect more than high 50s.

If Matthews comes back Wednesday as expected, he’d have 61 games left. Last year he had 55 goals in his final 61 games, which would put him at 60 this year. In his final 61 games in 21-22 he had 54 goals, which would put him at 59.

Obviously those are best case scenarios but Matthews has shown that it’s definitely realistic to think he can make up a 10 goal lead in 60 games. It’s just probably not the most likely scenario at this point.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: Sundinisagod
Video Nasty

Video Nasty

Registered User
Mar 12, 2017
5,745
9,982
leafsfan5 said:
Also, Reinhart + Draisaitl are also at a stupidly high shooting%, even for the both of their standards. I'd expect some regression getting them down into the 50-60 goal range
Click to expand...

Worth noting that Reinhart shot 24.5% last season. He was at 25.0% through his first 20 games, so he didn’t exactly regress all that much the rest of the way. Not saying he’ll only drop back to 28% this time, but who really knows what’s normal for him right now?

I think Reinhart and Drai both hit 60.

That said, Matthews is that one player who has proven he can go off for GPG or around it for very long stretches, so I don’t blame anyone for sticking with him. I picked Drai, but if Matthews comes back on Wednesday and gets two, we may very well be seeing the start of another such stretch. Hard to bet against someone who just came off 69 goals.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Sundinisagod
leafsfan5

leafsfan5

Registered User
Jun 14, 2014
14,868
25,917
Video Nasty said:
Worth noting that Reinhart shot 24.5% last season. He was at 25.0% through his first 20 games, so he didn’t exactly regress all that much the rest of the way. Not saying he’ll only drop back to 28% this time, but who really knows what’s normal for him right now?

I think Reinhart and Drai both hit 60.

That said, Matthews is that one player who has proven he can go off for GPG or around it for very long stretches, so I don’t blame anyone for sticking with him. I picked Drai, but if Matthews comes back on Wednesday and gets two, we may very well be seeing the start of another such stretch. Hard to bet against someone who just came off 69 goals.
Click to expand...
Yeah it's why I said even for their standards. Reinhart generally shoots an incredibly high% so he won't fall off too heavily, but he won't stay at 28.8% forever. I don't know if anyone has ever shot that high in a whole season, would be crazy to see

If we dropped Reinhart down to his % from last year he would be at 13 goals in 20 games, a 53 goal pace. It's why I think he'll be in the 50-60 range (though mid to upper 50s due to his hot start) once his % cools down slightly
 
  • Like
Reactions: DitchMarner
Video Nasty

Video Nasty

Registered User
Mar 12, 2017
5,745
9,982
leafsfan5 said:
Yeah it's why I said even for their standards. Reinhart generally shoots an incredibly high% so he won't fall off too heavily, but he won't stay at 28.8% forever. I don't know if anyone has ever shot that high in a whole season, would be crazy to see

If we dropped Reinhart down to his % from last year he would be at 13 goals in 20 games, a 53 goal pace. It's why I think he'll be in the 50-60 range (though mid to upper 50s due to his hot start) once his % cools down slightly
Click to expand...

Totally fair points.

What I noticed about Reinhart is that he has had the exact same number of shots through 20 games in each of the past two seasons. Obviously, he has 15 goals this time compared to 13. He only took two shots total in Games 17-20 last year. Maybe a Panthers fan who watches him nightly can chime in and tell us what happened there around this time last year if they remember?

If he ups his shot totals to the 233 he had last season, instead of the 213 pace last year and this year so far, and drops back to 25%, that gets him to 60 right there.
 
  • Like
Reactions: DitchMarner
Voight

Voight

#winning
Feb 8, 2012
42,156
18,740
Mulberry Street
leafsfan5 said:
Yeah it's why I said even for their standards. Reinhart generally shoots an incredibly high% so he won't fall off too heavily, but he won't stay at 28.8% forever. I don't know if anyone has ever shot that high in a whole season, would be crazy to see

If we dropped Reinhart down to his % from last year he would be at 13 goals in 20 games, a 53 goal pace. It's why I think he'll be in the 50-60 range (though mid to upper 50s due to his hot start) once his % cools down slightly
Click to expand...

Quick search of some of the more notable goal scorers in history, best I got was Bossy @ 24% in 79, Lemieux 24% in 93, Gretzky at 26.7% in 84, Robitaille 24% in 1990. There could be others that high but I only checked a handful of names.

(full seasons or close to it only; Bure had 29% one year but he played only 11 games)

They didn't start calculating SH% until 1960, so one would have do the requisite math to see if Richard ever hit that high.
 

Regal

Registered User
Mar 12, 2010
26,599
16,544
Vancouver
Voight said:
Quick search of some of the more notable goal scorers in history, best I got was Bossy @ 24% in 79, Lemieux 24% in 93, Gretzky at 26.7% in 84, Robitaille 24% in 1990. There could be others that high but I only checked a handful of names.

(full seasons or close to it only; Bure had 29% one year but he played only 11 games)

They didn't start calculating SH% until 1960, so one would have do the requisite math to see if Richard ever hit that high.
Click to expand...

There’s been 5 guys with at least 40 goals who’ve been over 28%, all in the 80s

Charlie Simmer in ‘81: 56 goals, 32.8%
Craig Simpson in ‘88: 56 goals, 31.6%
Wendell Young in ‘85: 40 goals, 30.5%
Rob Brown in ‘89: 49 goals, 29.0%
Jari Kurri in ‘86: 68 goals, 28.8%

Though Kuzmenko shot 27.3% two years ago in his 39 goal season.
 
  • Like
Reactions: DitchMarner and Video Nasty
Plural

Plural

Registered User
Mar 10, 2011
33,842
5,026
Voted Drai at first, but then decided it's Matthews. He can still knock around 60 goals this season if he's back next week.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Ad

Latest posts

Upcoming events

Ad

Ad

Top Bottom
X