Speculation: Who will we draft with #4? Part II

[Rare Jewel]

Who knows what happens in a few years but this is probably the kind of move you could also look back and go:"What the **** were they thinking?" ... Especially passing on Strome.

Yep, Possibly. But on the day at least I'd be understanding of the selection. The player isn't one without a very good track record and pedigree. He's been talked about since he was 13 years old and aside from McDavid we've probably known about him the longest of anyone in this draft. Does that kind of thing hold now, Who knows. But his play down the stretch with Seattle where he basically carried the offense there, Then his performance at the U-18 should at least put him in the conversation.

 

[Stand Witness]

At the end of the day who ever is picked will get the fan support. If Marner/Hanifin/Strome and picked and they do bust we can not complain that it was a bad pick because it was at least the consensus and hey are elite players. If Barzal/Zacha/Provorov are picked are bust/don't become elite it will be pretty easy for fans to absolutely lose their minds.

We aren't in the position to take risks. We have to pick BPA. The difference between the first group of 3 and the second group of 3 is the question marks around them.

Pick the BPA in our pick range. (1/2)(3/4/5)(6/7/8/9).

I could support and understand Barzal. I can't with Zacha sorry.

 

[LeafsNation75]

Here is my prediction top 14 (non playoff teams).

1) Connor McDavid (C) - Erie Otters - OHL

2) Jack Eichel (C) - Boston Univ. - NCAA

3) Noah Hanifin (D) - Boston College - NCAA

4) Mathew Barzal (C) - Seattle Thunderbird - WHL

5) Dylan Strome (C) - Erie Otters - OHL

6) Lawson Crouse (LW) - Kingston Frontenacs - OHL

7) Mitchell Marner (RW/C) - London Knights - OHL

8) Ivan Provorov (D) - Brandon Wheat Kings - WHL

9) Mikko Rantanen (C/W) - TPS - Liiga

10) Zachary Werenski (D) - Univ. of Michigan - NCAA

11) Pavel Zacha (C/LW) - Sarnia Sting - OHL

12) Timo Meier (RW/C) - Halifax Mooseheads - QMJHL

13) Kyle Connor (C) - Youngstown Phantoms - USHL

14) Brock Boeser (RW) - Waterloo Black Hawks - USHL

For some reason I can't see the Leafs passing on Strome or Marner.

Also why did you have the Flyers selecting 3rd and not Arizona?

 

[Reddaye]

For some reason I can't see the Leafs passing on Strome or Marner.

Also why did you have the Flyers selecting 3rd and not Arizona?

I think Mess is implying he thinks a trade will take place where they swap picks.

 

[Rare Jewel]

Highest pick the Leafs have had in forever is not the time to make a ballsy pick.

I don't know, We made really obvious pick in 2008. Then we went much less obvious in 2009, It worked out better.

The idea I've had for a while now is, If Hanifin is there at 4th, It's probably hard not to take him. If he isn't, It's between 3-5 others.

 

[ACC1224]

I don't know, We made really obvious pick in 2008. Then we went much less obvious in 2009, It worked out better.

The idea I've had for a while now is, If Hanifin is there at 4th, Take him. If not it between 3-5 others.

I've never been a big draft guy but I don't recall those Drafts having the top end hype that this draft does.

 

[Mitchy]

Here is my prediction top 14 (non playoff teams).

1) Connor McDavid (C) - Erie Otters - OHL

2) Jack Eichel (C) - Boston Univ. - NCAA

3) Noah Hanifin (D) - Boston College - NCAA

4) Mathew Barzal (C) - Seattle Thunderbird - WHL

5) Dylan Strome (C) - Erie Otters - OHL

6) Lawson Crouse (LW) - Kingston Frontenacs - OHL

7) Mitchell Marner (RW/C) - London Knights - OHL

8) Ivan Provorov (D) - Brandon Wheat Kings - WHL

9) Mikko Rantanen (C/W) - TPS - Liiga

10) Zachary Werenski (D) - Univ. of Michigan - NCAA

11) Pavel Zacha (C/LW) - Sarnia Sting - OHL

12) Timo Meier (RW/C) - Halifax Mooseheads - QMJHL

13) Kyle Connor (C) - Youngstown Phantoms - USHL

14) Brock Boeser (RW) - Waterloo Black Hawks - USHL

Who would the Flyers trade, along with their pick to get the 3rd? It would take a lot, and I doubt they would trade one of their young defencemen.

Also, there is no way New Jersey passes on Marner. Marner is exactly what they need and what they have wanted for a long time. In addition, I think the Sharks would pick Werenski and the Avs Rantanen, because the Sharks need defensive prospects and iirc, the Avs said they like their defensive prospects and want a big forward.

Finally, if the Leafs wanted Barzal, why not trade down? I don't think the risk is high enough to not trade down.

Those are just some of my thoughts and questions. Nice and interesting list, though.

 

[LeafsNation75]

On the TSN 1050 website there is a poll question asking who the Leafs should select at 4th overall between Strome, Marner, and Hanifin? So far these are the results.

Strome: 65%

Marner: 19%

Hanifin: 16%

 

[ULF_55]

Who would the Flyers trade, along with their pick to get the 3rd? It would take a lot, and I doubt they would trade one of their young defencemen.

Also, there is no way New Jersey passes on Marner. Marner is exactly what they need and what they have wanted for a long time. In addition, I think the Sharks would pick Werenski and the Avs Rantanen, because the Sharks need defensive prospects and the iirc, the Avs said they like their defensive prospects and want a big forward.

Finally, if the Leafs wanted Barzal, why not trade down? I don't think the risk is high enough to not trade down.

Those are just some of my thoughts and questions. Nice and interesting list, though.

IIRC Flyers have two (2) first round picks.

 

[Woll Smoth]

youve missed the point twice now. and i have no idea what your position is because youre no longer making one, this is about who the leafs should select at 4. i compared marner to eberle and strome to getzlaf as a talent comparison, you thought that was unreasonable because they were draft 5 years apart?

i also said i believe strome and marner are closer then people are making them sound and while BPA is a nice thought, a positional need should be considered. to this you replied "edm needs d and gt...." my point was that drafting a need (ie a defenseman) would have been an excellent choice for edmonton , instead of BPA (ie yakupov).

not sure how late round drafting has anything to do with who we should draft at 4.

For some reason I got off track and thought you were comparing Eberle to Getzlaf as edmonton's draft selections.

Still, I don't see why you would effectively cap Marner off at Eberle's level, when he out scored him by 50 points in their draft year, and is much better defensively. While Strome gets a favorable comparison in Getzlaf, who is considered a top center in the league (also much better skater and more physical)

And I disagree with that too (when it comes to Marner/Strome) Leafs lack more than just a C. They lack puck hounds. Players that play with urgency. Players who can step up and lead when others (entire Leafs core) fail.

Marner stepping up in the playoffs and playing C for his team says a whole lot about his character. From what I've seen Strome has been almost invisible, and I've been trying to keep extra focus on his play since he's a potential Leaf prospect. I think there's a big gap. The only thing keeping it close to many people is: 6'3 + Center.

This whole idea of drafting BPA/need comes from thinking Strome and Marner are close. I'd agree if I saw it that way. The Leafs will just have to wait another year to draft the mighty big #1 C. Hopefully one that plays with an edge.

 

[Woll Smoth]

For some reason I can't see the Leafs passing on Strome or Marner.

Also why did you have the Flyers selecting 3rd and not Arizona?

He's (subtly?) trying to push the idea that Marner is Arizona's pick and will be available @ 7. Right after Crouse.

 

[Mitchy]

IIRC Flyers have two (2) first round picks.

You're right they do (from the Coburn deal). Still, Arizona would be taking a massive risk trading down and expecting Marner to be there.

 

[ULF_55]

Marner stepping up in the playoffs and playing C for his team says a whole lot about his character.

In the first round, for how many games?

Did he really step up?

He was 2 PPG in the regular season.
He was 2.29 PPG in the post season against one team they dominated.

Hard to give him a lot of credit when he never made it past the 1st. round.

Remember when SSM was going to walk over Erie?
How would the Knights have fared against the SSM?

 

[Purity*]

Keith is 196 as per hockey db. Bergeron is 194. Not small by anyone's books. Krejci fits in to what I have been saying. Though I would not term him as small at almost 190. I am not opposed to a few small skilled players on the team, I just don't believe you can ice a team full of them and win a cup.

A point you consistently miss here, again you can have some small players, but not all. Even Detroit is drafting bigger skilled players now. A philosophy shared by Mike Futa. You can't win with a plethora of small players, you can have a few, just not all.

Did you miss Chara, Lucic, Horton, Doughty, Carter, Kopitar, Toews, Seabrook, Hossa just to name a few top 6 F top 2 D players on the last 5 cup winners.

And incase you missed it also, I also said they had one skilled small guy sprinkled in the line up Kane, Williams, and Marchand(I couldn't find a small skilled Gaudreau on their team so I went with him) Point is, they did not build their teams with smaller players.

You need to look up the definition of straw man if you do not think these are not big skilled players. They were posted right above.

Besides the point. There are definitely small players in these team's cores. Keith and Kane are well under 200 (Keith is listed at 192 on NHL.com) and they are very important to the Hawks. 3 of Boston's 4 best forwards are all under 200 (Bergeron, Krejci and Marchand, doesn't ****ing matter "how big they play"). Doesn't seen so "Sprinkled when half of their top-6 forwards are under 200.

And the most successful team before the arbitrary 5-year mark that you set, Detroit, happened to have their 3 main core players all under 200 (Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Lidstrom). Oh yeah, don't forget they also featured Kronwall and Rafalski as their next best 2 D who were both under 200 pounds. Hudler and Filppula too as 2 of their better forwards, under 200 pounds. How was a team that was successful for so incredibly long consisted of so many guys who aren't big?

And above all this, like I said; Marner has the superior 2-way game to Strome, he plays more physical, and he's far more tenacious and does things way better than Strome away from the puck. You accuse Marner supporters of only wanting him for "his flash" when he's superior in other aspects of the game.

And I have zero clue what your definition of strawman is, you always utterly confuse me when you bring up this fallacy.

 

[Purity*]

In the first round, for how many games?

Did he really step up?

He was 2 PPG in the regular season.
He was 2.29 PPG in the post season against one team they dominated.

Hard to give him a lot of credit when he never made it past the 1st. round.

Remember when SSM was going to walk over Erie?
How would the Knights have fared against the SSM?

Yeah cause it's gotta be his fault even though he was far and away the best player on London

 

[Rare Jewel]

I've never been a big draft guy but I don't recall those Drafts having the top end hype that this draft does.

Probably not because there's the two guys at the top. In 2008 and 2009 there was Stamkos and Tavares who both had a lot hype. So it's kind of like having two of them in one draft.



But after Stamkos in 2008 there was the group of 4 D-men.

Doughty
Bogosian
Pietrangelo
Schenn

That was the consensus before the draft. We moved up to 5th, And Schenn was ours.

In 2009 after Brayden Schenn was off the board, Everyone(pretty much) wanted MPS and his rankings through out all the different publications were higher. But we opted for Kadri and that's not really debatable now.

 

[Woll Smoth]

In the first round, for how many games?

Did he really step up?

He was 2 PPG in the regular season.
He was 2.29 PPG in the post season against one team they dominated.

Hard to give him a lot of credit when he never made it past the 1st. round.

Remember when SSM was going to walk over Erie?
How would the Knights have fared against the SSM?

Considering he's the one who approached his coach about it. I'd say he stepped up.

Round 2?

Those are pretty impressive numbers regardless.

2.29 > 1.27 anyway.

I'm sure if the Knights had McDavid putting up almost 3 PPG and near record playoff numbers they would have done alright for themselves too.

 

[Willchel Marlynder]

Strome is a pretty good player also. It's rare to find a big skilled #1C prospect in any draft, when one is available, I am sure the Leafs will think long and hard in drafting one. Leafs are looking for skill and talent. Strome has this. If Marner is speculated to fill out, Strome will too. 6'4 205 lbs with an inch of growth and more muscle. Sounds good to most.

Strome Report Card
Size/Strength B
Skating A-
Shot/Scoring ability B
Puckhandling A
Hockey Sense A+
Competitiveness B+
Physical play C+
Composure/Poise A-
Defence B-

http://www.redlinereport.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Dylan-Strome-draft-spotlight.pdf

Ahh going off on a tangent I see. Well I'll just have to hope that now you'll stop blatantly lying now when you say "Marner fans" only want him for his skill. No more lies friend that's all
I ask

In the first round, for how many games?

Did he really step up?

He was 2 PPG in the regular season.
He was 2.29 PPG in the post season against one team they dominated.

Hard to give him a lot of credit when he never made it past the 1st. round.

Remember when SSM was going to walk over Erie?
How would the Knights have fared against the SSM?

McDavid is all that needs to be said here.

Is it Marner's fault he dominated a team in the Playoffs? Is Strome's 6 point game his fault for dominating a Niagara team with suspect defence? That is what good players do, they dominate lesser teams. Of course you have players like McDavid who dominates everyone and anyone at will but that's him. See how Nurse was hounding McDavid every game? Now imagine if McDavid was Marner instead. Regardless of if Marner is the 1C or Strome is the 1C Erie isn't going anywhere because I'm positive Nurse would effectively neutralize them. Strome was neutralized with out the need of Nurse hounding him anyway. Apparently he's injured so i'll give him the benefit of the doubt for his poor play, but even then, I doubt he would be able to do much against Nurse. Injured or not guy is just a beast.

 

[member 147413]

Hanifin
Marner
Barzal

My order of preference.

 

[Judas Tavares]

Is this the only year that there's an NHL Entry Draft? Why worry so much about what we need in this draft. I'm sure we'll have the same kind of dilemma over the next couple years. If Strome doesn't have the ceiling that perhaps Marner or Hanifin have... why bother selecting a player you don't feel as the same upside just because he's a center? Maybe we trade for another 1st rounder and select a center with that pick? Who knows.

No matter what, the Leafs simply have to take the best they think has the most value. This is what matters.

But if Strome is that guy for us, which could very likely be, then I'm all for it. I just want the best player at our spot, regardless of anything.

This is true but I've been advocating that assuming we are in the same position in the next few years, while likely, is no guarantee. Gotta wonder if at this time last year the Flames thought they would be in the McDavid sweepstakes. Sure it worked for Buffalo, but you never know. And on the other hand, after making the playoffs in 2010 and 2012, did the Avs expect to be able to draft Landeskog and MacKinnon?

I see too much "Oh don't worry we will get Matthews next year." You just can't assume anything. Maybe a mix of some of our young guys improving mixed with shipping out some poison gives us a hard working team that improves and we draft 10th. Even this year, we were horrid, and some teams found a way to be worse, while a couple extra points and an unlucky lottery result could have had us drafting 6th.

What I'm saying is, while you are actually in the position for once, make due with it while you have the chance. Hey if Strome is projected by our scouts to be a bust, by all means take Marner, I'd be more than thrilled. But if our scouts are projecting similar upsides....

There may be a draft every year, but its not every year 29 teams can be in such a lucky/unfortunate position like Edmonton.

 

[Stand Witness]

In other words, always take BPA^. Don't pick based off needs.

 

[Mess]

Yep, Possibly. But on the day at least I'd be understanding of the selection. The player isn't one without a very good track record and pedigree. He's been talked about since he was 13 years old and aside from McDavid we've probably known about him the longest of anyone in this draft. Does that kind of thing hold now, Who knows. But his play down the stretch with Seattle where he basically carried the offense there, Then his performance at the U-18 should at least put him in the conversation.

The next Joe Sakic is just too good to pass on.

Trading down a few spots and still getting him would work for me also, but then you risk another scout that sees his potential and takes him.

 

[Mess]

For some reason I can't see the Leafs passing on Strome or Marner.

Also why did you have the Flyers selecting 3rd and not Arizona?

Arizona wants Marner and Philly needs a new Pronger replacement so teams trade position and each gets their player and Arionza picks up more assets to move back.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Ahh going off on a tangent I see. Well I'll just have to hope that now you'll stop blatantly lying now when you say "Marner fans" only want him for his skill. No more lies friend that's all
I ask

Which supposed lie is this? That Strome is a very skilled player. Most scouts agree he is. He's listed at #4 on CSB's list.

Redline Report's exemplary report card? What tangent are you referring to? I posted about Strome being a pretty good player. If you are going to make an accusation, you should back it up.

Instead of flinging wild accusations and not specifically addressing it. Do you want to start again?

Well I'll just have to hope that now you'll stop blatantly lying now when you say "Marner fans" only want him for his skill. No more lies friend that's all
I ask

 

[Rare Jewel]

The next Joe Sakic is just too good to pass on.

Trading down a few spots and still getting him would work for me also, but then you risk another scout that sees his potential and takes him.

Well "the next Sakic" is a bit unfair to Barzal right now.

But he's a very talented player.