Chase Reid - My 7th overall prospect
Chase Reid was clearly the best player on the ice in the CHL games that I watched, and was probably the US's best defenseman at the U20s. I thought, and still do think, that the criticism of his "low" point per game average was a bit silly, since he was the main offensive driver on a team that included former 5th overall pick Brady Martin. It only takes about one shift to recognize that he has elite hands/edgework and offensive playmaking at the CHL level,
In one of the playoff games between London and the Soo I saw Reid pick the puck up on the right point, fake a slap shot, easily beat the forward by putting the puck between his legs while turning, then fake out another forward and make a no look pass to his teammate, who fanned on the shot. I tried to find it again, but gave up as it just wasn't worth my time. It was sort of like this other play he made, but much nicer.
Anyway, it's not particularly contentious to claim that Reid is an elite puck handler at the CHL level, especially with regards to zone entries and exploiting 1v1's.
He was also (reportedly) 6'3 and 195lbs. Physical play isn't his forte, but I saw him throw a nice neutral zone hit which checked off a "good enough physicality" box. All that put together should explain why and I didn't bother looking at him with a finer toothed comb. I got the Makar comparisons, even if I thought they were optimistic, and thought the general consensus of him being worth the 2nd or 3rd overall pick in the draft seemed about right.
But after coming back to Reid's tape a lot of the shine has come off. First, while this may sound minimal, I was promised a player who was 6'3, 195lbs. He measured in at 6'2.5 and 190lbs at the combine. Not bad, but a little disappointing. Every bit less size makes him a less safe prospect, especially when his lighter frame matches what I see when I watch his games. He wins about his share of board battles, but I've seen random, mid-sized CHL teenagers bullying him in the corners.
Here he clearly loses positioning against that forward, and gets bailed out by his center.
Chiarot muscles him off the puck even though he starts with plenty of space to make a play.
Here he tries a one on one move at the point against undrafted 20 year old Hayden Reid, listed at 6'0, 180lbs. He fails to juke him out, and easily muscled off the puck, which leads to a turnover.
Still, Reid has a good stick, and I don't need my PP1QB to be a physically dominant player. More concerning is that his skating really isn't elite even at the CHL level. His edgework/agility definitely is, which caused me to initially assume that the rest of his skating was. Players don't go full out most shifts, but after multiple games I started to wonder why I had never seen top end speed or quickness from this guy, when he'd been in plenty of footraces by that point.
Here he loses what should have been, at minimum, a 50/50 race to retreive the puck.
Sometimes his legs look almost sluggish. Sure, he was almost fifty seconds into his shift at that point, but he hadn't done much more than coast around. I keep wanting to see more juice in those legs.
About the fastest I've ever seen him skate is this play here, which seems more like great speed, than truly elite.
He's far from the fastest guy on his own team. Even some guy I'd never heard of, Jeremy Martin, is noticeably faster. Although, as an aside, I really liked that guy. Undrafted 19 year old. Listed at 6'1, 190lbs, scored 26 goals, great speed. I'd probably take him with a late round flier.
Anyway, Reid's lack of elite speed/quickness combined with his average physical play is why he isn't nearly as good as I kept hoping he'd be at puck retrievals. He's easier to forecheck at the CHL level than Makar is at the NHL level. It was very disappointing going from watching Smits, Gustafsson, and Sokolovskii, all of whom excel at puck retrievals, to watching Reid's tape.
I was also increasingly disappointed with his neutral zone defensive play. He is overall good, and makes some eye catching neutral zone interceptions. Part of that is due to his great transitions and reach. Unfortunately, part of that is due to his at times bizarrely over aggressive style, which looks a lot better in highlight videos than game film.
Decision aside, the execution was also awful. He didn't pressure the initial puckhandler one bit, and then easily let him beat him to the net. That'll get him benched in the NHL.
I even began to question his elite hands. His stickhandling is incredibly smooth, but he has a weirdly high number of off-target passes. I think this is just a concentration thing, or a miscommunication, not innate, but I saw too many passes like this.
Still, I do really like Reid as a prospect. I project him to have moderately below average size/strength, above average overall skating, and great/excellent hands at the NHL level. He has a very credible chance at being about the tenth best PP1QB in the league, although I expect he'll be closer to 20th. Unlike, say, Villeneuve, I expect his defensive 5v5 play to be at least adequate at the NHL level, making him a relatively safe gamble. If he's a little worse than I expect he's still probably a bottom pair guy who's a contributor on the second unit powerplay.
Even that low end projection is a valuable player, especially as a right handed shot. Five years from now if whatever team drafts him thinks they've found a better PP1QB guy, I'd expect Reid to command a very nice return for them in a trade. I just think people should lower their expectations. You're hoping for a player like Morgan Reilly, Cam Fowler, or maybe Bowen Byram. He's not the next Makar.
He'll be fun to watch, for better or for worse.
