No, it's not as simple as that. A prospect isn't a dart (metphorically speaking), unless you think of them as some darts you get to throw from virtually point blank and others you get to throw from the other end of the room. And take into consideration that not all dart-throwers are equally proficient.
Lots of selections does not neccessarily turn into lots of players. Lots of decent prospects does not neccessarily turn into lots of players either - in fact, it ususally doesn't. You are projecting that the Islanders end up with 10-15 NHL players from their current prospect pool, even after deducting those who are already there. That's just ludicruous. I'd bet good money that there has never, in the history of the NHL, been a prospect pool who resulted in that kind of output. And certainly not one that consists largely of players drafted in the second round or lower. Do you realise how momentuously against any normal probability that outcome would be? If you get five players, you have a good result.
Why exactly do you need to look at a best-case scenario? (ie, one that is virtually guaranteed to not be the reality). As you write, "It is unheard of to think that a single draft could produce seven NHL regulars, which would be the best-case scenario.". True, but on the other hand, it is very easy to think of a single draft that at some point looked like it might produce seven NHLers if you applied a best-case scenario. Which is again the basis on which you consider that it's realistically possible enough to be worth discussing for the Islanders to get seven players out of that draft.
And right there, in the jump from the first paragraph to the second, is where your line of reasoning falls apart, and reveals the blithe optimism at its core. As you note, if you draft 1 or 2 NHLers per year, it's a good job (Actually it isn't, it's an average job). But, an NHLer is not the same thing as "a player with a legitimate shot at the NHL". In fact, getting one or two of the former out of six of the latter would be pretty normal.
If we're going to include players who are already in the NHL, then we obviously have a completely different discussion than the present one, so let's not mix things up.
If three years from now you have ten players in your lineup who are presently one of your prospects you can call me , well, whatever you want. I will myself post a topic titled ISLES FANS ARE RIGHT AND I AM A BLITHERING FOOL. But until then, it's tough to escape the clear impression that there is a level of hysterical optimism among Islanders fans regarding their prospect pool that simply defies all realism.
The darts analogy wasn't the best from a control standpoint- yes Kabanov needs to prove a maturity level this year. Yes Petrov needs to officially commit to the NHL. And these are things that are mostly out of say Garth Snow's hands. In the best-case scenario option I was considering, if these two players do get their acts together, the talent is already there- in spades. These two are top five picks on talent alone- which as prospects certainly puts them in the same group as Eberle and MPS.
As far as Kabanov being the better prospect than Eberle- again, best case scenario Kabanov wins hands down. Would Eberle have challenged Hall and Seguin in the draft? I don't think so...but there was early talk of Kabanov doing just that- before the circus mind you. And not to re-hash that, but if Kabanov is such a cancer, why is Moncton ready to take him back with open arms?
You're right- there never has been in the history of the NHL such a large number of potential NHLers from a single prospect pool, or individual draft, unless you go waaaay back (and I'm not about to call Liam MacGuire on that one), though the 2008draft for the Islanders certainly looks to be a watershed moment for the organization. So how can we say the Islanders look to have six NHLers from the 2008 draft? I will try to be as conservative as possible here. And getting away form best-case scenarios, and looking at talent alone, here they are:
For starters, let's remove Bailey and Hamonic from the mix because I think most here would agree that a two-season NHLer, and a bonafide blue-chip defensive prospect are not worth discussing. So there's two.
Matt Martin projects as a cruiserweight, fourth-line energy agitator, who if he keeps developing may end up on the third line. He has already played for the Islanders, and been assigned a number now
http://www.lighthousehockey.com/2010/8/26/1651797/matt-martin-is-now-on-the-team You won't find him listed under the Islanders' prospects page anymore either
http://islanders.nhl.com/club/roster.htm?type=prospect So Martin looks to be number three, barring injury.
Kirill Petrov has top six NHL talent, and after the recent rookie camp, coach Gordon glowed about Petrov, and that he looked like he belonged in the NHL. The kid came to rookie camp, and has said that he will return in September. Until the Islanders and Petrov say otherwise, don't believe everything you read on Twitter...so there is number four.
Kevin Poulin looks to be number five: “There are so many raw-talented goalies in the Quebec League that, to be frank, many of them tend to be a dime-a-dozen,†emailed an Eastern Conference QMJHL scout that has watched Poulin play for four seasons in Victoriaville. “What it looks like now is that Poulin is not an average prospect. From what he’s shown this season, I’d have to say he has a legitimate chance to play in the NHL if the Islanders bring him along the right way.†and this: Poulin was so improved in every aspect of his butterfly-style game that the general manager and head coach of the Quebec Ramparts was moved to declare Poulin as the best goaltender in Canadian junior hockey. That would be Patrick Roy.
http://www.islanderspointblank.com/...nd-draft-pick-kevin-poulin-is-the-real-thing/
Matt Donovan should also see NHL ice. Is he a top four defenseman? Probably not- though many Islanders fans would argue here. But this isn't about "best-case" scenarios, is it? He will play in the show, and is number six. Here are a few opinions
http://hfboards.com/showthread.php?t=720907 and this too for another 2008 draft plug and discussion around Donovan
http://hfboards.ca/showthread.php?p=23586785
Number seven, David Ullstrom, has the body and the speed to top out on the second line in a best-case scenario, but conservatively speaking will end up as a third-line centre or wing. Worst case is fourth line based on his physical tools alone:
Ullstrom, who signed a three-year Entry Level deal, told Point Blank last summer that he was determined to begin his North American playing career in 2010. Most scouts project him as a third-line forward, with an outside chance of developing into a second-liner. http://www.islanderspointblank.com/...-onswedish-forward-gets-his-entry-level-deal/
That's the 2008 draft. Add in El Nino, Kabanov, Nelson, de Haan, and you can start to see why Islanders fans are excited. Nay, why fans of other NHL teams are starting to take notice too.
Not to mention the real possibility of players like Anders Lee, Casey Cizikas, Blake Kessel, Mikko Koskinen, and Anders Nilsson also looking like they have the tools to also make the pros.
You'll change your tune, rest assured. In rebuttal, make sure to break down your arguments for each player- and be sure to let all Islanders fans know where and when you have seen each play. That would be nice.