Nashville gets lauded for its organizational depth, and brother, they are about to pass that mantle.
The Islanders picture was pretty rosy before the 2010 draft, I mean, the garden was there- we've added a few new species to the mix, but if anyone suggests that the 2010 draft is better than 09 or 08 (!), they haven't followed this team.
Now no one has come out and said it, but why all the love, now? Nino and Nelson are great picks- they should make the NHL- but Kabanov gets no love- or does he?
Assuming a best-case scenario for all players involved (that is, they all reach their projected potential), the Islanders are the top organization out there. The caveat here is that recent picks- from the drafts mentioned- are included.
I add this table to show how my opinion breaks down...each player is matched with his consensus counterpart (that is, if Tavares or Hall were moved down their board, there would be little doubt as to who would be the career superior player).
Tavares = Hall (-0.05)
Kabanov (-0.15) = Eberle
Bailey = MPS (-0.10)
Petrov (-0.20) = Omark
Hamonic = ?
de Haan = ?
I listed the top offensive prospects from each club to show how the Islanders are statistically better here, IMO. And so if Hall and Tavares reach their full potential, Hall could have a better career by no more than a 5% margin- practically a wash if you look at the rest of the numbers. Kabanov, for example, would have been drafted in the top five- and potentially challenged for the first or second overall draft position. This assumes a clean slate- and also assumes a Malkin-like start to his career...that Tavares as his Crosby is blossoming too.
The Oilers have no answer for the Hamonic-de Haan pairing (you remember, the one that was well on its way to being established as the top unit at the WJC last year until de Haan, and then Hamonic were both injured). Florida's overall defensive prospect pool edges the Islanders here, but not on the number of future NHlers.
So there's the homer-rub- we all want to believe our prospects will ascend to their projected place in the NHL. Remember though that any career can be sidelined- even the good Canadian prospects- and so all prospects are just that- prospects. If a team drafts one or two NHLers per year, it is widely regarded as a job well done.
In 2008, the Islanders look to have drafted six players with legitimate shots at NHL careers...that is, they have the talent to make it- though we're not sure how good they will be. We won't use the best-case scenario assumptions from above, but then again, it's not necessary here. The number of great prospects from the 2008 draft is what sets the Islanders apart from the pack:
Josh Bailey
Travis Hamonic
Kirill Petrov
David Ullstrom
Matt Donovan
Matt Martin
All of these players are developing nicely, and will see NHL ice. The problem the Islanders will have is finding room for all these players to play!
A second group from the 2008 draft still has a chance at the NHL, though things have not gone as smoothly here. Still, there is time. The Islanders 2008 draft is easily the best by any NHL team this decade. If any of the following players have great seasons this year, there will be little doubt. I expect one and maybe two of these players to either play in the NHL for a short while-though not necessarily with the Islanders:
Corey Trivino
Aaron Ness
David Toews
Jared Spurgeon
It is unheard of to think that a single draft could produce seven NHL regulars, which would be the best-case scenario. Even if only Bailey, Hamonic, Petrov, and Martin go on to have careers, it will have been a coup.
That is the way you compare the best overall prospect pool- by asking how many of the players are likely to be NHLers, period. On 2008 alone, the Islanders prospect pool is in the top third of the NHL. Add in Tavares, Okposo, Hillen, MacDonald, de Haan, Kabanov, Neidereiter, and Nelson, and it becomes clear that no other NHL team can match the quality and variety of the Islanders prospects.
There is another level of prospects here too that look awful good:
Anders Lee (compares favourably to both Nelson and Bjustag)
Mark Katic (by now you've heard of Andrew Macdonald...)
Blake Kessel (big, mobile, and responsible...watch him blossom this year)
Mikko Koskinen (watch him play a full healthy season in Bridgeport this year)
Anders Nilsson (back-up on Swedish WJC team plays as big as MK)
Casey Cizikas (fourth line face-off specialist/pk)
Jason Clark (has big future third-line grinder written all over him)
In short, it's the abundance of quality prospects that sets the Islanders apart. Sure, Taylor Hall might edge Tavares. Sure the same could be said of MPS over Bailey. Kabanov and Petrov are both high-end talents that will play top-six minutes in the NHL...they are just too good not to.
Add Hamonic and de Haan (top four NHLers minimum) to Hillen and MacDonald (already NHL regulars) with the real possibility of Donovan (made Fowler look awful good at the last WJC) and you can see how the Islanders
sheer numbers dominate here again. Katic, Kessel and Ness are just gravy, really.
Again, every time you compare prospect pools, you have to go on best case scenarios to level the comparisons. The Islanders have more darts! It's as simple as that!
Will, or are already having NHL careers:
Tavares (NHL)
Okposo (NHL)
Bailey (NHL)
Petrov
Kabanov
de Haan
Hamonic
Neidereiter
Nelson
Hillen (NHL)
MacDonald (NHL)
Martin
Good chance at regular NHL duty, not necessarily careers:
Ullstrom
Lee
Donovan
Poulin
Koskinen
Nillsson
May yet make the NHL:
Cizikas
Katic
Kessel
Clark
Tis sad that the Islanders have had to build through the draft these last few years!