Who do you expect to be the more effective hockey player in three years: Dach or Dubois?

[OnTheRun]

Again Jets are not really pressed to trade him.

They have time.

In the absolute sense, they have two years.
But waiting only lead them to trading him as a rental, they will get pick for a player with no term. And that's not what they want. (Unless they change their mind and decide to rebuild.)

So no, they don't have a whole lot of time.

 

[BigDaddyLurch]

You still probably tried to give your best when your future is on the line.

...yup...and my LIFE was on the line when I joined up, something I was, and still am, very keen on keeping...getting severely injured still happened...again, sometimes this shyte is outta your control...Chevy knows he's rolling some shitty dice here and we'll see what happens...

 

[HuGort]

I voted Dubois because so much skill there. But I hope we don't acquire him. We Have to give up a lot in trade then sign a big contract. Reasonable chance he will wilt under pressure for french star in Montreal. Too much is expected of him here. Going to be big mistake.

Dach is less skill but safer bet. He still good #2 NHL center

 

[Paul Dipietro]

Haven't seen him play but I still have 0 expectations for Dach. So yeah if he amounts to anything it'll be gravy for me

 

[jaffy27]

The question is the most effective….I’ll go with Dach in the hopes that if he reaches his potential, he will be a force down the middle.

If they were even a tandem, I’d see Dach with the most points while Dubois would be the trigger man and amass the bulk of the goals!!

 

[Harry Kakalovich]

Contract for contract is the only way to compare players. It'll be interesting to see Dach's next contract.

 

[Scriptor]

Dach has a higher ceiling. Dubois is more established.

If Dach can get his wrist healthy again, I have to go with Dach being better in 3 years.

It’s a lot riskier then saying Dubois but if they both reach their potential it has to be Dach. So I will guess that Dach wrist heals up.

How the hell is Dach's ceiling higher than Dubois'? Based on what? Also, BTW, in three years, Dubois will be smack in his prime and Dach three years behind in his development, compared to Dubois, would, optimistically be starting to enter his prime. No doubt that Dach, short of playing with a 100-point, play-driving winger (none that Montreal currently have) will not have the production levels that Dubois has in three years.

 

[NORiculous]

How the hell is Dach's ceiling higher than Dubois'? Based on what? Also, BTW, in three years, Dubois will be smack in his prime and Dach three years behind in his development, compared to Dubois, would, optimistically be starting to enter his prime. No doubt that Dach, short of playing with a 100-point, play-driving winger (none that Montreal currently have) will not have the production levels that Dubois has in three years.

If you look at the numbers they had in juniors. Both leagues (WHL & QMJHL) have different levels of production. So you also need to adjust/factor in the leagues vs. their personal production. Also need to consider teammates, if teams were good/bad, coaching, etc.

Then, you have to factor in that big guys take longer in the NHL. Dach was also injured which slowed him down.

My conclusion with all this is that Dach has a higher ceiling and lower floor. At this point, I think it is preferable for the Habs to have Dach.

If the Habs were a piece away from cup contenders, then PLD would be the better fit.


That said, PLD would be a nice addition. Specially if they can ship out Dvorak in the trade.

 

[RealityHurts]

Why are people so positive relative to PLD? The man has shown signs of floating in both Columbus and Winnipeg. Wake up, people. That's not what you win with..

 

[MXD]

I prefer the upside of Dach (in 3 years) to the player Dubois is right now and both of these "concepts" (Dach upside and Dubois now) are probably of equal value (meaning it's a just a thing of preference), but :
- Dach may not reach his upside
- Dubois still has some room to grow

 

[DramaticGloveSave]

Right now Dubois is settled in as a 60 point player. Maybe he can be better if playing in front of the home fans lights a fire under his ass?

Dach has massive upside. I loved him in the draft. He was on his way before a wrist injury stagnated his development. Assuming he’s 100% he has a chance to ascend fast to stardom.

Ultimately it’s pretty even, with more boom/bust with Dach since he hasn’t established himself yet.

Would be nice to have both. Slaf, Dach and PLD would certainly give us some size in the top 6 which will help offset the lack of size from Suzuki (somewhat), Caufield, and Bedard

 

[Hins77]

PLD is already a good 1B/2A centre. Dach has the potential to make it, but there is few doubts about it. I really like his skillset thought. Can dangle 3 players in a row. He just needs to put it together

 

[WeThreeKings]

I think people on the last page have ultimately nailed it.

In terms of upside it's Dach. His upper echelon skill is simply higher than Dubois. Dubois has the higher floor since he already knows how to put his tools to use in the NHL and score around 60 a year.

 

[MXD]

Contract for contract is the only way to compare players. It'll be interesting to see Dach's next contract.

Well... if you're talking about the further contract and not the one Dach will sign in the next week, that one will strongly correlated to his performance.

...Lets say next contract is in the 3M range (and let's put Dubois at 7M for the purposes of this discussion), it pretty much means one thing : one is somewhat easily replaced, the other not so much. The 3M$ may or not be better bang for the buck then, but that would also mean there are A LOT MORE players that could bring exactly what Dach brings.

The same applies in the reverse too, but is probably a pipe dream (Dach playing well enough to warrant a 9M contract)

 

[Harry Kakalovich]

Well... if you're talking about the further contract and not the one Dach will sign in the next week, that one will strongly correlated to his performance.

...Lets say next contract is in the 3M range (and let's put Dubois at 7M for the purposes of this discussion), it pretty much means one thing : one is somewhat easily replaced, the other not so much. The 3M$ may or not be better bang for the buck then, but that would also mean there are A LOT MORE players that could bring exactly what Dach brings.

The same applies in the reverse too, but is probably a pipe dream (Dach playing well enough to warrant a 9M contract)

That doesn't sound correct. For that to be true, wouldn't that mean that all contracts accurately assess the future performance of players?

 

[MXD]

That doesn't sound correct. For that to be true, wouldn't that mean that all contracts accurately assess the future performance of players?

If Kirby Dach is breaks out on a 3M deal, it means his deal is a short term one, so the savings are on the short term.

 

[angusyoung]

I'm working on it,please stand by.

 

[Harry Kakalovich]

If Kirby Dach is breaks out on a 3M deal, it means his deal is a short term one, so the savings are on the short term.

The question asks who will be better in 3 years, which assumes that what's important is who is better regardless of contract. But who has more value a 7/10 player who is paid 2M too much or a 6/10 player who is paid 2M too little? The answer is the 6/10 player quite easily. Why? Because player values cannot be separated from their contracts.

So the question is not getting to the root of the issue, the question to ask is not which player will be better in 3 years, but which player's contract will be better value in 3 years.

 

[McGuires Corndog]

I think people on the last page have ultimately nailed it.

In terms of upside it's Dach. His upper echelon skill is simply higher than Dubois. Dubois has the higher floor since he already knows how to put his tools to use in the NHL and score around 60 a year.

I still don’t believe he has higher upside than Dubois. He has far more room for growth relative to where he currently sits, there’s no question about that.

Do we think Dach can be a 70-80 pt player? I don’t see it. I think PLD in a peak season could hit 70-75. I think Dach’s ultimate upside is relatively close to where PLD is currently producing.

 

[MXD]

The question asks who will be better in 3 years, which assumes that what's important is who is better regardless of contract. But who has more value a 7/10 player who is paid 2M too much or a 6/10 player who is paid 2M too little? The answer is the 6/10 player quite easily. Why? Because player values cannot be separated from their contracts.

So the question is not getting to the root of the issue, the question to ask is not which player will be better in 3 years, but which player's contract will be better value in 3 years.

.... But then again, the player payed 2M too little isn't gonna remain payed 2M too little (we're not talking about McDavid types here) for long enough to really matter. Unless he has a f***ing awful agent who accepted a 4MX6yr for player at the absolute worse possible time.

 

[Harry Kakalovich]

.... But then again, the player payed 2M too little isn't gonna remain payed 2M too little (we're not talking about McDavid types here) for long enough to really matter. Unless he has a f***ing awful agent who accepted a 4MX6yr for player at the absolute worse possible time.

I'm sorry, that's not how it works. Some contracts, even long-term contracts are good value and some are fair value and some are bad. And it all depends on how things play out. That's why team control of contracts is so important because teams have time to evaluate and make proper decisions (hopefully).

If you don't care to think about contracts that's your choice, but it's the reality in cap sports. It's all about value.

 

[MasterD]

The only questions about Dubois are
1. How would he react in the pressure cooker of Montreal?
2. Would he want to leave in 2 years again for whatever reason?

On the ice, he's already a very good NHL player. Each probably will be a very good NHL player too, but hasn't shown it, yet.

 

[MXD]

I'm sorry, that's not how it works. Some contracts, even long-term contracts are good value and some are fair value and some are bad. And it all depends on how things play out. That's why team control of contracts is so important because teams have time to evaluate and make proper decisions (hopefully).

If you don't care to think about contracts that's your choice, but it's the reality in cap sports. It's all about value.

Oh, they absolutely do.
It's just that it's better off thinking in terms of replaceability.. And player with high replaceability tend to be paid more.

Also, let,s say Dach signs for 2 seasons. Puts up about 45 points mostly at ES and turns out being a great 3rd line option who can perfectly play on a 2nd line, depending on matchups and wingers and all, but who isn't otherwise a Selke Candidate.

That would be perfectly acceptable and a great return for Romanov and a 3rd rounder.

...But let's say Hughes gives him a 11MX8 deal. Does it makes the Romanov trade awful in retrospect?

 

[Takeru]

I still don’t believe he has higher upside than Dubois. He has far more room for growth relative to where he currently sits, there’s no question about that.

Do we think Dach can be a 70-80 pt player? I don’t see it. I think PLD in a peak season could hit 70-75. I think Dach’s ultimate upside is relatively close to where PLD is currently producing.

It's not outside the realm of possibility for Dach to grow into a 70-80pt guy.
Look at guys like R.Thomas or T.Thompson who just put up roughly these numbers during their 23-24 seasons, with nothing coming close to those numbers before.

Dach is still 21, he has lot to improve still and while these are only examples, I wouldn't upfront strike out a similar season from Dach in the next 2.

 

[WeThreeKings]

I still don’t believe he has higher upside than Dubois. He has far more room for growth relative to where he currently sits, there’s no question about that.

Do we think Dach can be a 70-80 pt player? I don’t see it. I think PLD in a peak season could hit 70-75. I think Dach’s ultimate upside is relatively close to where PLD is currently producing.

He definitely has more upside than Dubois. Dach's puck skills and sense/vision are really unique for a player of his size.

Like I said, Dubois has found a way to make his skill set work in the NHL and has a very solid floor but I don't see the high end puck skills or vision that Dach has which definitely gives Dach the capacity to be a 70 to 80 pt center, it's just relative to whether the Habs can undo him being rushed and developed poorly in Chicago.