Who are your top 10 defenseman next season?

[benfranklin]

Here’s a snapshot from moneypuck of the top 25 pairings in xGF% with at least 400 minutes together.

View attachment 895516

Should be noted that Edmonton had pretty dominant xGF% numbers overall and their other two pairings are both also on the list

Taking it to 1000 minutes was interesting. So much context with who their usual forwards are and zone start %'s, but pretty cool to dissect.

Highlights how good Morrissey is.

 

[Dread Clawz]

I hope Forsling and Barkov continue to get underrated by opponents as much as fans lol.

 

[Pure Slaughter Value]

Dobson's probably top 5-10 in offense but he still has a ton of defensive breakdowns. He needs a steady partner and as improved as Romanov is, that pairing can be either a legit 1st pairing or a trainwreck caused by either d-man.

 

[BKarchitect]

In general I’d have guys like Morrissey, Slavin, Forsling and Toews rated higher than most…I just love a cerebral, buttery skating defenseman who can log heavy, tough minutes and blend well with different stylistic partners. Maybe lacking in outrageous highlights or physicality, but being smoothly in control at most times is underrated.

 

[Machinehead]

I hope Forsling and Barkov continue to get underrated by opponents as much as fans lol.

Most people have Forsling as a top 15 D and there was recently a large poll that had Barkov as the 6th best player.

Where do you think they should be?

 

[BKarchitect]

Most people have Forsling as a top 15 D and there was recently a large poll that had Barkov as the 6th best player.

Where do you think they should be?

Yeah, love both players (I mean see above for Gus) and they are great but we’ve had multiple “Forsling is the most underrated player” posts on the main forum in the last few months and he’s generally listed as like one of the first players people mention in “underrated threads” - I think we’ve reached saturation point on key cogs of the Cup champs being touted or complained about as “underrated.”

It’s almost cliche at this point at HFB to show your hipster hockey fan cred to tell everybody how underrated Forsling is even when everybody already acknowledges he’s a terrific #1 defenseman on a Cup winning team.

 

[TageGod]

Never forget how winning teams with good coaches help player statistics. Then remember Dahlin is on the Sabres.

 

[57special]

McAvoy also missed 8 games and had better PPG the previous two years. Faber’s underlying offensive metrics for chance generation also suggest he might not be able to sustain those points. I think he’s very good but I don’t think he deserves to be put next to McAvoy just yet

Established level of play year after year is important, but as a rookie, not much Faber can do about that. I would say that you can't mention missing games as a positive. Being able to stay on the ice, especially for a Dman who plays 24+minutes, is a plus.

It's just interesting to me that Faber can get even close to McAvoy's numbers, especially when you look at their near identical size, features, and skillsets. I am pretty hard on dmen, especially when it comes to defending, but Faber was really, really good last year. I think his offensive numbers might come down next year because Guerin will try to pull him off the PP so he can use him even more defensively.

 

[Neil Racki]

Fox - watching him play, he doesnt stand out much, certainly not to be a Norris candidate.

But thats a me problem

 

[Machinehead]

Fox - watching him play, he doesnt stand out much, certainly not to be a Norris candidate.

But thats a me problem

I mean, not necessarily. He's not a flashy player.

He doesn't have a great shot, he certainly doesn't skate that well, and his transition game is probably his worst asset. These are the things that make defensemen stand out. To be fair, his transition game is probably hurt by the fact that his partner has as much offensive ability as most decent NCAA players, but I digress.

You really have to wait and see results with Fox. He drives results because his defense is outstanding, he's one of the best I've ever seen at keeping the puck in at the line, he's an elite penalty killer, he makes really incisive passes that cause breakdowns, and his goals tend to be right place right time. Occasionally he breaks somebody's ankles but on the whole, he's not a super noticeable player.

15 years ago and beyond, he never wins the Norris. The voting base is starting to fill up with younger guys that are looking at analytics based on shots and goals.

 

[Neil Racki]

I mean, not necessarily. He's not a flashy player.

Hey man .. thanks for the great reply. Some good food for thought.

His puck retrieval is sometimes "slow" and indecisive (but still probably above average compared to all defensemen .. he does everything great but thats the one area he seems average imo off my couch as I eat mac n cheese out of the pot I cooked it in)

 

[Machinehead]

Hey man .. thanks for the great reply. Some good food for thought.

His puck retrieval is sometimes "slow" and indecisive (but still probably above average compared to all defensemen .. he does everything great but thats the one area he seems average imo off my couch as I eat mac n cheese out of the pot I cooked it in)

You're not wrong. He's not a fast skater and his puck retrieval tends to be stop, box the guy out, and then go get the puck. He's gotten pretty good at it, but it's visually ugly and wastes a bit of time.

He also has a lot of ground to cover for a slow skater and I think his game would look different if they stopped strapping him to the Lindenberg. We'll find out eventually if there's a God.

 

[Sidgeni Malkby]

Bouchard's play tends to get devalued due to McDavid/Draisaitl/Ekholm with the claim that without those guys he would be bleeding goals. And yet over the last two years his xGA/60 without any of them is 1.94 and an xGF% of 60.67% in 577 minutes 5 vs 5.

Kris Letang says hello .

 

[Lacaar]

As an Oiler fan I have no issue with Bouchard not being on the list.

He was pretty poor defensively to start the season last year. His defensive game improved through out the year no doubt. He was actually really damn good defensively in the playoffs.

The sample size just isn't large enough to get on a list like this. His next step is consistency.

 

[AnInjuredJasonZucker]

The difference was wildly overrated by Oilers fans. Silovs made some big stops but he also really struggled with a lot unscreened point shots including a number of Bouchard’s. He actually gave up 2.91 goals more than expected according to NaturalStatTrick, whereas the Oilers goalies combined gave up 1.06 goals more than expected.

Yes. It was Oilers fans wildly hyping up Silovs.

 

[Regal]

Yes. It was Oilers fans wildly hyping up Silovs.

A third string goalie with barely any NHL experience stepped in when the Vezina candidate went down and played well enough to get the team to game 7 of the 2nd round. It was a great narrative and of course fans are going to get behind him. But he wasn’t anything special in terms of actual performance. If DeSmith played the exact same way there wouldn’t be nearly the same hype.

But if you read a lot of Oilers fans takes on the series, they frequently cite goaltending as a huge advantage for Vancouver (like the poster I quoted) and many suggest it’s the only reason it got as far as it did. I saw one even say it wouldn’t have been close if Vancouver didn’t get “Hasek-like goaltending”.

 

[KlefDown]

That video shows his offense though not how he plays defensively.

tell me how Bouchard will have to defend when teams are too busy picking pucks out of their own net

 

[AvroArrow]

I hope Forsling and Barkov continue to get underrated by opponents as much as fans lol.

Is this 2021 ?

 

[norrisnick]

I mean, not necessarily. He's not a flashy player.

He doesn't have a great shot, he certainly doesn't skate that well, and his transition game is probably his worst asset. These are the things that make defensemen stand out. To be fair, his transition game is probably hurt by the fact that his partner has as much offensive ability as most decent NCAA players, but I digress.

You really have to wait and see results with Fox. He drives results because his defense is outstanding, he's one of the best I've ever seen at keeping the puck in at the line, he's an elite penalty killer, he makes really incisive passes that cause breakdowns, and his goals tend to be right place right time. Occasionally he breaks somebody's ankles but on the whole, he's not a super noticeable player.

15 years ago and beyond, he never wins the Norris. The voting base is starting to fill up with younger guys that are looking at analytics based on shots and goals.

Fox is Dollar General Lidstrom. Lidstrom managed to win a couple with that exact same profile in a far less receptive hockey world. Took way too long to be fully appreciated, but once the Legion of Doom was neutered in the '97 Final he couldn't be ignored anymore.

 

[AnInjuredJasonZucker]

A third string goalie with barely any NHL experience stepped in when the Vezina candidate went down and played well enough to get the team to game 7 of the 2nd round. It was a great narrative and of course fans are going to get behind him. But he wasn’t anything special in terms of actual performance. If DeSmith played the exact same way there wouldn’t be nearly the same hype.

But if you read a lot of Oilers fans takes on the series, they frequently cite goaltending as a huge advantage for Vancouver (like the poster I quoted) and many suggest it’s the only reason it got as far as it did. I saw one even say it wouldn’t have been close if Vancouver didn’t get “Hasek-like goaltending”.

This is revisionist, and your noted exceptions are not the popular opinion. The consensus is generally that Silovs was good and not a glaring weakness.

 

[Regal]

This is revisionist, and your noted exceptions are not the popular opinion. The consensus is generally that Silovs was good and not a glaring weakness.

It’s certainly not just noted exceptions. I read a ton of the threads for that series. A very high number of Oilers fans put the series squarely on goaltending (both Silovs being good and Skinner being bad) because they weren’t willing to believe that the Canucks could make a series out of it otherwise. A number of Canucks fans also overrated Silovs in the moment I agree.

Regardless, the initial discussion was about Hughes vs. Bouchard in the series and the poster claimed that Bouchard had to face the much better goalie. Statistically that’s not true, since combined the two Edmonton goalies performed better relative to expected goals. You can argue Vancouver might have had an advantage overall in terms of the chance of winning the series due to the timing of the goals, but that fact is irrelevant to individual player production.

This is even more prevalent when both Hughes and Bouchard were on the ice, where Bouchard had 4 goals despite an individual expected goals of just over 1. He was also on the ice for over 3 more goals in the series than expected, whereas Hughes was on the ice for 3.5 goals fewer than expected. The Oilers were scoring on 15% of their shots at ES when Bouchard was on the ice. The idea that Silov’s was an advantage when it comes to comparing Hughes and Bouchard’s series’ just isn’t true statistically

 

[Phrasing]

tell me how Bouchard will have to defend when teams are too busy picking pucks out of their own net

Getting Karlsson flashbacks

 

[AnInjuredJasonZucker]

It’s certainly not just noted exceptions. I read a ton of the threads for that series. A very high number of Oilers fans put the series squarely on goaltending (both Silovs being good and Skinner being bad) because they weren’t willing to believe that the Canucks could make a series out of it otherwise. A number of Canucks fans also overrated Silovs in the moment I agree.

Regardless, the initial discussion was about Hughes vs. Bouchard in the series and the poster claimed that Bouchard had to face the much better goalie. Statistically that’s not true, since combined the two Edmonton goalies performed better relative to expected goals. You can argue Vancouver might have had an advantage overall in terms of the chance of winning the series due to the timing of the goals, but that fact is irrelevant to individual player production.

This is even more prevalent when both Hughes and Bouchard were on the ice, where Bouchard had 4 goals despite an individual expected goals of just over 1. He was also on the ice for over 3 more goals in the series than expected, whereas Hughes was on the ice for 3.5 goals fewer than expected. The Oilers were scoring on 15% of their shots at ES when Bouchard was on the ice. The idea that Silov’s was an advantage when it comes to comparing Hughes and Bouchard’s series’ just isn’t true statistically

Nothing you've said here suggests Oilers fans "wildly overrating", and there is a pretty wide gulf between "good" and "Hasek-like". I think you're moving goalposts a tad. A truly Silovsian feat.

 

[Dread Clawz]

Most people have Forsling as a top 15 D and there was recently a large poll that had Barkov as the 6th best player.

Where do you think they should be?

Most posts here don't even have Forsling listed. Just as Barkov in the forwards thread.

Is this 2021 ?

No, 2024

 

[Rabid Ranger]

Fox is Dollar General Lidstrom. Lidstrom managed to win a couple with that exact same profile in a far less receptive hockey world. Took way too long to be fully appreciated, but once the Legion of Doom was neutered in the '97 Final he couldn't be ignored anymore.

Dollar General. Lol.