Which teams are bound for mediocrity over the next 5-6 years?

[SeanMoneyHands]

Flames.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Wpg jets live in the bubble. Never going to contend, never going to bottom out.

 

[Realgud]

Isn't the Wild the most obvious answer?

 

[SheldonJPlankton]

The way the Leafs have been tail-spinning lately...115 points in 2022...111 points in 2023...102 points in 2024...mediocrity awaits just around the corner.

 

[habsterr]

My guesses would be Islanders, Flames, Kings, Red wings and Wild.

 

[chaser17]

The Ducks are still young, loaded with talent they won't be mediocre in 5 years

Sens

Thing is young talent in the pipeline means nothing unless the team starts actually winning games. How many rebuilds have we seen in the last 10 years just spin their tires? Edmonton pre mcdcvid, Buffalo,Ottawa is getting worrisome. Not saying they won't but just be careful counting your chicks.

 

[Wry n Ginger]

lol Oilers 5 years ago.. You can't predict SHIT. Threads like this are worthless for discussion.
Nobody was gonna say "Oh yea this team is gonna make the finals in 5 years"

97	Connor McDavid	C	78	41	75	116	20	3	--	--	--	--	--	ONT: Richmond Hill	21
29	Leon Draisaitl	C	82	50	55	105	52	2	--	--	--	--	--	Germany: Cologne	22
93	Ryan Nugent-Hopkins	C	82	28	41	69	26	-13	--	--	--	--	--	BC: Burnaby	25
25	Darnell Nurse	D	82	10	31	41	87	-5	--	--	--	--	--	ONT: Hamilton	23
39	Alex Chiasson	R	73	22	16	38	32	-1	--	--	--	--	--	PQ: Montreal	27
77	Oscar Klefbom	D	61	5	23	28	16	-11	--	--	--	--	--	Sweden: Karlstad	25
44	Zack Kassian	R	79	15	11	26	102	-6	--	--	--	--	--	ONT: Windsor	27
6	Adam Larsson	D	82	3	17	20	44	-28	--	--	--	--	--	Sweden: Skelleftea	25
27	Milan Lucic	L	79	6	14	20	91	-9	--	--	--	--	--	BC: Vancouver	30
16	Jujhar Khaira	L	60	3	15	18	43	-12	--	--	--	--	--	BC: Surrey	24
83	Matt Benning	D	70	5	12	17	33	11	--	--	--	--	--	ALTA: Edmonton	24
4	Kris Russell	D	72	3	13	16	27	5	--	--	--	--	--	ALTA: Caroline	31
22	Tobias Rieder	C	67	0	11	11	8	-8	--	--	--	--	--	Germany: Landshut	25
8	Ty Rattie	R	50	4	7	11	4	-2	--	--	--	--	--	ALTA: Calgary	25
91	Drake Caggiula 1	C	29	7	4	11	16	-8	--	--	--	--	--	ONT: Pickering	24
89	Sam Gagner 2	C	25	5	5	10	10	-3	--	--	--	--	--	ONT: London	29
98	Jesse Puljujarvi	R	46	4	5	9	16	-14	--	--	--	--	--	Sweden: Alvkarleby	20
28	Kyle Brodziak	C	70	6	3	9	33	-14	--	--	--	--	--	ALTA: St. Paul	34
82	Caleb Jones	D	17	1	5	6	6	-9	--	--	--	--	--	TX: Arlington	21
43	Josh Currie	R	21	2	3	5	2	2	--	--	--	--	--	PEI: Charlottetown	25
2	Andrej Sekera	D	24	0	4	4	6	3	--	--	--	--	--	Slovakia: Bojnice	32
5	Kevin Gravel	D	36	0	3	3	4	-2	--	--	--	--	--	MI: Kingsford	26
45	Joseph Gambardella	C	15	0	3	3	2	2	--	--	--	--	--	NY: Staten Island	24
12	Colby Cave 4	C	33	2	1	3	8	-4	--	--	--	--	--	SASK: Battleford	23
23	Ryan Spooner 3	C	25	2	1	3	2	-6	--	--	--	--	--	ONT: Ottawa	26
19	Mikko Koskinen	G	55	0	2	2	2	0	--	--	--	--	--	Finland: Vantaa	30
10	Chris Wideman 6	D	5	0	2	2	4	-2	--	--	--	--	--	MO: St. Louis	28
18	Ryan Strome 5	C	18	1	1	2	14	-1	--	--	--	--	--	ONT: Mississauga	25
56	Kailer Yamamoto	R	17	1	1	2	2	-6	--	--	--	--	--	WA: Spokane	19
33	Cameron Talbot 9	G	31	0	1	1	0	0	--	--	--	--	--	ONT: Caledonia	31
15	Alexander Petrovic 8	D	9	0	1	1	2	-7	--	--	--	--	--	ALTA: Edmonton	26
13	Jason Garrison	D	17	1	0	1	8	1	--	--	--	--	--	BC: White Rock	33
26	Brandon Manning 7	D	12	1	0	1	4	-1	--	--	--	--	--	BC: Prince George	28
	Evan Bouchard	D	7	1	0	1	2	-5	--	--	--	--	--	ONT: Oakville	18
24	Brad Malone	C	16	0	0	0	4	0	--	--	--	--	--	NB: Miramichi	29
52	Patrick Russell	R	6	0	0	0	2	0	--	--	--	--	--	Denmark: Holte	25
32	Anthony Stolarz 11	G	6	0	0	0	0	0	--	--	--	--	--	NJ: Edison	24
65	Cooper Marody	C	6	0	0	0	0	-1	--	--	--	--	--	MI: Brighton	21
73	Valentin Zykov 10	L	5	0	0	0	2	-1	--	--	--	--	--	Russia: St. Petersburg	23

Aww man...all those stats and everything...so awesome. You sure showed them.

 

[Boud]

Ottawa is a possibility.

It really depends on this year and on if Ullmark wants to re-sign. If the team does good, they're in a good spot. If the team is bad again and they can't keep Ullmark it'll be a disaster.

Norris shoulder is still a question mark. Not much depth. Not many prospects coming in. Not much cap space. Giroux and Perron getting older. No 1st in 2026.

They need to win this year or it'll be a very diffiuclt few years.

 

[majormajor]

Obviously Washington and Pittsburgh. But I'll add Vegas. They're old and getting very slow. They'll still be able to attract good players but not enough to get them out of the ditch. They'll lose a lot of games just because they can't keep up.

Minnesota because it seems like they're stuck in perpetual mediocrity (not intended as a slight against them, I am rooting for them)

Boldy, Rossi and Faber look awesome, but I expect another 6 seasons of 40-ish wins and 1st round exits because the franchise/state of Minnesota is obviously cursed.

Ignore the vibes and just look at the talent -

Kaprizov - JEE - Boldy
Yurov, Rossi

Buium - Faber

Wallstedt

I think that could be a top 10 core in five years.

* Yes we don't know if Kaprizov will extend but my guess is that they'll throw enough money at him to get it done.

Ottawa - too many bad trades. Their good young guys are going to need pricy extensions and the lack of a prospect pool will be painful.

Their top young guys are Stutzle, Sanderson, and Tkachuk, all signed on good value long term deals. That's one of the best hints that a team is going to be great.

Their prospect pool won't necessarily be that relevant, it will come down to pro scouting and who they surround their best players with. Ottawa could be a top club if they make some good decisions. So far I like the new regime.

LA - Another team who has made too many poor trades. They don’t have much talent on the way.

Byfield is getting better, he might become an elite player. Clarke is on the way on D.

I like their contracts other than Doughty's, and his will be off the books in three years.

 

[FerrisRox]

Pittsburgh

With the age of their roster and Kyle Dubas as GM the Penguins are much more likely to sink like a stone then they are to spend the next five years treading water and being mediocre.

I think projecting the Penguins to be mediocre for the next five years is enormously optimistic.

Aww man...all those stats and everything...so awesome. You sure showed them.

The funny part is, his post is ridiculous.

I think a lot of people, five years back, saw the Oilers with two incredible core pieces in McDavid and Draisaitl and absolutely predicted they would be club to be reckoned with in the next five years.

The point he seems to think proves that "nobody can predict shit" is hilarious if his example is the Edmonton Oilers.

 

[Factorial]

Caps fans are bullish on the future. I think our better days are a couple years away, but we should still compete for a playoff spot in the near term.

Good luck with that.

With the age of their roster and Kyle Dubas as GM the Penguins are much more likely to sink like a stone then they are to spend the next five years treading water and being mediocre.

I think projecting the Penguins to be mediocre for the next five years is enormously optimistic.



The funny part is, his post is ridiculous.

I think a lot of people, five years back, saw the Oilers with two incredible core pieces in McDavid and Draisaitl and absolutely predicted they would be club to be reckoned with in the next five years.

The point he seems to think proves that "nobody can predict shit" is hilarious if his example is the Edmonton Oilers.

How many users do you have here?

 

[Dead Coyote]

Leafs, Jets, Minnesota, Islanders, Utah- if Smith keeps trying to speed up the rebuild.

 

[trick9]

Capitals or Penguins don't really fit here. Especially Capitals, they've been seller for years and added picks and prospects. I'd agree they are likely to stay middling through 8 and 87 eras but that’s only 1-3 years max. The rebuild is coming after, but it might not even need to be a long one.

If you are looking into longer time like 5-6 years then it's teams that have been rebuilding but will cut it short too soon.

 

[Siignal]

Flames.

I think we want worse than mediocrity the next 2 years. If Parekh doesn't hit his ceiling then I can certainly see us being stuck in the 10-20 range

 

[LuGBuG]

If Anaheim doesn’t get their act together with coaching an inconsistencies - they might be there

Should probably let Cronin have another year with more depth, older players and not an injury depleted lineup.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

With the age of their roster and Kyle Dubas as GM the Penguins are much more likely to sink like a stone then they are to spend the next five years treading water and being mediocre.

I think projecting the Penguins to be mediocre for the next five years is enormously optimistic.

Crosby factor.

I'd love for the Pens to bottom out and hit on some lotto picks, but Crosby's too good. They'll probably be picking #10-20 for as long as he's leading the team.

 

[lakeshirts37]

Rangers as they may have to pay 12 million for a goalie and 10 million for a busted out 1st overall soon. Going to be interesting

terrible take

LOL get more creative and less obvious

As a Caps fan .. all the direct and peripheral hate is amusing on here.

Anyways ...

View attachment 894534

I mean Caps will def be in purgatory for a bit

Capitals or Penguins don't really fit here. Especially Capitals, they've been seller for years and added picks and prospects. I'd agree they are likely to stay middling through 8 and 87 eras but that’s only 1-3 years max. The rebuild is coming after, but it might not even need to be a long one.

If you are looking into longer time like 5-6 years then it's teams that have been rebuilding but will cut it short too soon.

Capitals absolutely fit - look at everyone they just added

 

[Misery74]

terrible take


I mean Caps will def be in purgatory for a bit


Capitals absolutely fit - look at everyone they just added

Look at everyone they subtracted. This team is at least 10 standings points better than last year.

The Caps have been middling, the last two years under Laviolette, and last year. They are also in a very advantageous cap position.

Moving Backstrom, and now Oshie to LTIR changed the Capitals trajectory.

 

[HeyMattyB]

Regarding the Capitals: CapFriendly is gone, so I wouldn't expect anyone who doesn't follow the team to know this. But the Caps only have four forwards signed past the 2025-2026 season (PLD, Wilson, Strome, and Protas). There's only two defensemen signed past the 2025-2026 season (Roy and Sandin). There are no goaltenders signed past the 2024-2025 season. Which is to say, it's a little silly to make predictions regarding their short- and medium-term success, because nobody knows what the majority of their roster will look like just two seasons from now, let alone further out.

Three forwards (Mangiapane, Dowd, Raddysh) are UFAs at the end of the 2024-2025 season; Oshie and Backstrom's LTIR contracts, as well as Kuzy's dead cap, will be off the books at the end of the season. Two defensemen (Chychrun and Bear) are UFAs at the end of the season; Alexeyev will be an RFA. Both goaltenders are UFA at the end of the season. All of those UFAs (with the exception of Bear) have decent-to-significant trade value if things go south in 2024-2025.

Three more forwards (Ovechkin, Milano, and Duhaime) are UFAs at the end of the 2025-2026 season; CMM will be an RFA. Two defensemen (Carlson and TVR) are UFAs at the end of the season; Fehervary will be an RFA. It's not like Ovi will be traded, but there's still decent trade value with some of those players if things go south in 2025-2026 (assuming they're not moved earlier).

For Caps fans, it's encouraging to know that over the next two seasons 1) the team will have a ton of free cap space to use in free agency, 2) the team still has a lot of future picks to dangle in trades that could immediately improve the roster (and will likely have even more picks if they trade away their upcoming UFAs), and 3) the team's prospect pool has significantly improved over the last two drafts, and now includes several high-end top-six forward prospects (Leonard, Cristall, Parascak, and Miro), a couple of which will likely be full-time NHLers two years from now (if not sooner).

Most encouraging is that all of this, including the recent trades and signings, was specifically planned out by GMBM to provide maximum flexibility for the next two seasons. By then, they'll have figured out which UFAs are good fits and worth re-signing, and which prospects are ready to contribute at the NHL level. Beyond that, it's almost completely open. That has always been the stated plan, and so far it has been well executed.

No, the Caps will not likely be picking in the top five of any drafts in the next few years. But picking in the top five is not the only way to build a decent playoff team. And, given how management's "retooling" efforts have gone so far, I think many Caps fans are optimistic about our chances of enjoying a playoff-worthy team that might not be perennial contenders, or even division-winners, but is still well above "middling" for most of the next 5-6 years.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Regarding the Capitals: CapFriendly is gone, so I wouldn't expect anyone who doesn't follow the team to know this. But the Caps only have four forwards signed past the 2025-2026 season (PLD, Wilson, Strome, and Protas). There's only two defensemen signed past the 2025-2026 season (Roy and Sandin). There are no goaltenders signed past the 2024-2025 season. Which is to say, it's a little silly to make predictions regarding their short- and medium-term success, because nobody knows what the majority of their roster will look like just two seasons from now, let alone further out.

Three forwards (Mangiapane, Dowd, Raddysh) are UFAs at the end of the 2024-2025 season; Oshie and Backstrom's LTIR contracts, as well as Kuzy's dead cap, will be off the books at the end of the season. Two defensemen (Chychrun and Bear) are UFAs at the end of the season; Alexeyev will be an RFA. Both goaltenders are UFA at the end of the season. All of those UFAs (with the exception of Bear) have decent-to-significant trade value if things go south in 2024-2025.

Three more forwards (Ovechkin, Milano, and Duhaime) are UFAs at the end of the 2025-2026 season; CMM will be an RFA. Two defensemen (Carlson and TVR) are UFAs at the end of the season; Fehervary will be an RFA. It's not like Ovi will be traded, but there's still decent trade value with some of those players if things go south in 2025-2026 (assuming they're not moved earlier).

For Caps fans, it's encouraging to know that over the next two seasons 1) the team will have a ton of free cap space to use in free agency, 2) the team still has a lot of future picks to dangle in trades that could immediately improve the roster (and will likely have even more picks if they trade away their upcoming UFAs), and 3) the team's prospect pool has significantly improved over the last two drafts, and now includes several high-end top-six forward prospects (Leonard, Cristall, Parascak, and Miro), a couple of which will likely be full-time NHLers two years from now (if not sooner).

Most encouraging is that all of this, including the recent trades and signings, was specifically planned out by GMBM to provide maximum flexibility for the next two seasons. By then, they'll have figured out which UFAs are good fits and worth re-signing, and which prospects are ready to contribute at the NHL level. Beyond that, it's almost completely open. That has always been the stated plan, and so far it has been well executed.

No, the Caps will not likely be picking in the top five of any drafts in the next few years. But picking in the top five is not the only way to build a decent playoff team. And, given how management's "retooling" efforts have gone so far, I think many Caps fans are optimistic about our chances of enjoying a playoff-worthy team that might not be perennial contenders, or even division-winners, but is still well above "middling" for most of the next 5-6 years.

Why would this be encouraging at all.... This is quite literally exactly how teams get stuck in perpetual mediocrity. Fortunately for the Caps that wont happen, they have no core to waste money around. They will absolutely be at the bottom of the league in 5 years.

 

[Imgoingtowork]

try rereading the OP

Worst teams next 5-6 years:

 

[viper0220]

Flames.

This Flames have been mediocre for the last 20 years, this is the first time the GM has the ear of Murray Edwards and the Flames are headed in a good direction.

The Flames will likely trade some vets but keep some vets to show the kids the ropes.

After 20 years, the Flames maybe headed out this category.

 

[PredsV82]

Those players will take 2-5 years to develop. In the meantime I think they will look a lot like they did last year, every year.

We have 6 1st rounders that have already played a full year in the AHL. They aren't that far out.

 

[FerrisRox]

How many users do you have here?

What does this mean? How many users do I have? What is a user?

 

[Kalopsia]

Seeing the Caps being brought up here a lot, it seems like people here haven't paid attention to the them lately outside of Ovie's chase for 895 and don't understand the context of the last few years. I can't really blame them, the Caps have been pretty boring, but I wish there was more understanding of why they were so boring. I don't think people get how much the Backstrom, Kuznetsov, Oshie situations - all of which are now functionally resolved - contributed to their mediocrity in recent years. Backstrom in particular, who spent the last three years alternating between being out while trying to rehab his hip and playing at a replacement level or worse, absolutely crippled them. They were paying 9.2M a year for absolutely nothing for 3 years, and even when he was on LTIR they couldn't do anything with that money because he kept trying to make comebacks, so they always had to set that money aside for his return. Oshie with his injuries was Backstrom-lite with a 5.75M cap hit and at least decent play when he was healthy. Kuznetsov was bad two years ago but this year he totally gave up on the team and was the worst player in the NHL at a 7.8M cap hit. These guys, these are why the Caps just making the playoffs this year is significant. These three players had a combined cap hit of 22.75M (26.9%), and they combined for 43 points in 103 games. Most of that's from Oshie. The 23-24 Caps had more than a quarter of their cap space going to three players with the combined production of Daniel Sprong. And they still made the playoffs. And now those players are off the Caps ledgers aside from 3.9M in retention for Kuzy. It cost them no assets to do this, and they even got a 3rd in 2025 out of it. The Caps this offseason just had the greatest example of "addition by subtraction" the NHL has ever seen, and no one outside DC seems to have noticed.

Back to the actual topic of this thread, people who think they're gonna get stuck in the middle have totally missed the point of the moves them made with the space from losing their anchors. They did exactly what a middling team who can't immediately rebuild for one reason or another (in this case, promises made to Ovechkin) should do - they made a bunch of high risk, high reward moves that didn't cost them any big future assets. If those bets pan out, they just added a 1C and an entire top pairing for the cost of two cap dumps and a 2026 3rd. You can't tell me a team that makes the playoffs and adds a 1C and a top pairing is in the middle. On the other hand, if things don't pan out, they can sell Chychrun, Mangiapane, Dowd, and their goalies at the deadline and do another big retool with all their cap space and some of the assets from those trades next summer. They can keep doing this until Ovie calls it a career and then if they haven't hit on enough of their buy-lows they'll launch into a full rebuild, and that rebuild won't be delayed at all by this summer's moves because they didn't trade a single prospect or any of their future 1st or 2nd round picks. PLD's contract might look bad but it won't matter if they're rebuilding. The Caps in the near future will either be 2nd tier contenders or rebuilding, nothing in between.