Speculation: Which defencemen should we keep?

[CoachWithNoTeam]

If Fabbro continues to partner Werenski as amazingly as he has been, I don’t care if we pay him $4-$5m.

Yeah, the money on Fabbro is a big question for me. At $2.5 he was both discardable by Nashville and passable by a handful of teams on waivers above us in the pecking order. But now that he has shown that he is again/still a top 4 guy, how high do we have to go to keep him around?

My initial gut reaction to the poll is keep: Fabbro, Christiansen, Hunt.

I've liked Provorov but the potential return (1st+) and the cost to keep him ($6-7? long term) does not make sense. Harris could make sense to keep for depth but at $1.4 I could see him being replaced with someone that makes half of that.

Werenski-Fabbro
Christiansen-Severson
Mateychuk-Gudbranson
Hunt

But I look at that roster and tend to think we'll find someone to replace Provorov with the extra cap space we'll have, and not just with the internal replacements.

 

[thebus88]

Cool thread, a fan of the the poll+in depth thread combos. Should do different 1s periodically.

Fabbro is good enough to keep around, but, I look at him as more of a 5-6D. He may be a decent fit with Werenski, but, his skating and passing is lacking. And he’s not really that great of a defender either, his size limits him just as much as a guy like Blankenburg or Mateychuk.

Christiansen, same thing, more of a 4-6D . I actually think he’s a bit better defensively and overall, than Fabbro. I actually would like to see a Christiansen-Fabbro pair. PK time together.

Harris I think is better as a 7-8D and he just doesn’t bring enough of 1 single asset to the ice, that I think he should be getting time over guys without a couple injuries, at least.

Provorov can go yesterday. Mateychuk is more than ready. I want a player in return or the assets gained to be used to add a GOOD player. Whether that’s a true #2RD or some sort of “blockbuster” forward add, the assets must be used to at least attempt to make a big add.

Hunt, I need to actually see. He’s obviously been brought in to be given some sort of look.

OK-BH, I think was 1 of the best players on the ice most of the time while watching the Traverse City tournament a couple/few years ago. I think down the line, if given enough opportunity, something could be there.

I also think somebody like Gudbranson should be kept around. Along with Severson, even if I’m seemingly only 1 of a handful of people who don’t seem to have an issue with either guy.

This Fabbro stuff is like Nylander 2.0 with some of you guys.

They are waiver pick ups for a reason.

 

[Jovavic]

Provorov already makes 7 million, he's going to want a raise, let's not be the club that gives it to him

 

[Viqsi]

This Fabbro stuff is like Nylander 2.0 with some of you guys.

Counterpoint: Nylander only ever had a brief breakout playing here. Fabbro, meanwhile, has a history of playing well alongside stars and enabling said stars to reach greater heights.

 

[CannonFire1]

I voted to keep Fabbro, Christiansen, Hunt, Knazko.

Would trade Provorov, who should bring a good return. Bring on Mateychuk.

While I like Fabbro and what he brings, I agree with those who balk at a $5M price tag. Something like 4×4 seems more appropriate to me. (I would probably offer 2.75x4 for Olivier).

I would want to see how Hunt fits before making a decision. Basically pencil him in for Harris's spot. He may provide quality depth, or may be a trade chip.

I voted to keep Knazko, but living out of state I never get to see Monsters games. If someone else offers more to Cleveland, I'd be fine keeping them instead.

I like Christiansen, and the fact that he can work with Severson.

 

[ViD]

Who gets more, Fabbro or Olivier?

Ideally, the same, $2-3m per

 

[Xoggz22]

In my opinion there is only one player on that list that we can say would be a top 4 D-man on a contender and that's provorov. That said, I'm not extending him for the cost it's likely to be and the fact we can't get out of Severson's deal.

I really like Fabbro but is he top 4 on a contender? I'd like to extend him but I'm not paying him like a top 4. Anything over $3.5 and I think that's too much.

The others... all are RFAs. I don't think "extend" is really the word I would use. I would look at them as who would we retain as a RFA. I think all but Ole get qualified and provide some depth at the NHL and AHL level.

So... to me... we are really devoid of to 4 d-men on this roster. We hope Mateychuk gets there. I also hope Morelli is not just a Jr player and can develop into a 4-6 NHL D-man. Beyond that... I think they need to pull a trade and find a way to move Severson in the next 2 years if possible.

 

[koteka]

Fabbro is good enough to keep around, but, I look at him as more of a 5-6D.

This Fabbro stuff is like Nylander 2.0 with some of you guys.

They are waiver pick ups for a reason.

Counterpoint: Nylander only ever had a brief breakout playing here. Fabbro, meanwhile, has a history of playing well alongside stars and enabling said stars to reach greater heights.

Fabbro is a weird one. He is at best a 3rd pair guy who for some reason pairs well with elite D. So you pay him as third pair guy and be happy you have an elite guy to pair him with. And he is happy to get paired with an elite guy so his game looks better than it really is. Win-win. If you pay him more and your elite guy gets injured or paired with someone else (let’s say a highly regarded prospect who needs some one to tutor him) — then you are left wondering who this overpaid bum is and why would anyone give him a contract.

 

[majormajor]

i don't see how they keep all four of these guys when they will only realistically have 7 roster spots next year for defensemen, four of which (werenski, severson, gudbranson, mateychuk) are for guys not listed here.

they also have a ton of cap space and a bunch of assets. i'd be shocked if they didn't add another established body here next year.

I didn't vote to keep Harris, to make room to sign a heavier depth D, but I think 8D is the correct number. Especially since a couple of those guys are waiver exempt, so you'll have options if they all happen to be healthy. You could carry 8 or send someone like Hunt down. Or Harris could get sent down, we're not worried about that. Anyways with injuries, it is very rarely an issue.

 

[Aaaarrgghh]

The length of any eventual Fabbro extension will also depend on what they do in the off-season. Say they swing big at the draft for a Rasmus Andersson or a Noah Dobson with an 8 year extension and then sign a big fish UFA like Marner, Rantanen or Shesterkin. Then they've got to consider that, in addition to that, Fantilli, Chinakhov, Sillinger, Brindley, Jenner and Greaves' contracts all run out in 2026 and then Johnson, Mateychuk, Marchenko and probably Voronkov in 2027.

Yes, the cap will go up and I don't expect all of those players to stick around, but if they want to build around a core of Fantilli, Mateychuk and Johnson and Fabbro is not a locked-in long-term solution, they probably need to maintain a certain degree of flexibility.

If do they extend Fabbro, as I hope, I expect a two-year del. Certainly not longer than three. But I could be and am probably wrong.

 

[tunnelvision]

So... to me... we are really devoid of to 4 d-men on this roster. We hope Mateychuk gets there. I also hope Morelli is not just a Jr player and can develop into a 4-6 NHL D-man. Beyond that... I think they need to pull a trade and find a way to move Severson in the next 2 years if possible.

If do they extend Fabbro, as I hope, I expect a two-year del. Certainly not longer than three. But I could be and am probably wrong.

I agree that Fabbro might not be a good long-term top-4 D on a contending team so maybe we shouldn't consider offering him a lot of term and money. But Fabbro turns 27 in June, if he wants to secure financial stability for retirement already, he isn't necessarily going to sign a 2-year deal at a reasonable 3M AAV even if he likes playing here.

So if he seems to be playing well enough for the rest of the season to earn a big paycheck he's looking forward to receive in the offseason, Waddell should probably trade him at TDL.

On the other hand, if we now decide to move on from Fabbro and begin searching for a true top-4 RD, what are the realistic trade and UFA options? Andersson is an average size RD and has one year left on his contract, how good is his defending? Dobson allegedly sucks at it so I'm instantly writing him off. I don't think I'd venture either option. I'd look for Jones/Pietrangelo in their prime type RDs but are there any available and do we have enough assets for them?

 

[Aaaarrgghh]

I agree that Fabbro might not be a good long-term top-4 D on a contending team so maybe we shouldn't consider offering him a lot of term and money. But Fabbro turns 27 in June, if he wants to secure financial stability for retirement already, he isn't necessarily going to sign a 2-year deal at a reasonable 3M AAV even if he likes playing here.

So if he seems to be playing well enough for the rest of the season to earn a big paycheck he's looking forward to receive in the offseason, Waddell should probably trade him at TDL.

On the other hand, if we now decide to move on from Fabbro and begin searching for a true top-4 RD, what are the realistic trade and UFA options? Andersson is an average size RD and has one year left on his contract, how good is his defending? Dobson allegedly sucks at it so I'm instantly writing him off. I don't think I'd venture either option. I'd look for Jones/Pietrangelo in their prime type RDs but are there any available and do we have enough assets for them?

To nuance it, I will add that we have been clamouring for a proper partner to Werenski for a while now. It seems that they might have found one in Fabbro. So what if he's not a "real" top 4 D? If he complements and thus elevates Werenski's gams, at least he comes cheaper. And if they did go and get another "real" top 4 D at the draft that doesn't complement Werenski specifically, that player could be paired with Mateychuk on the second pairing going forward. Mateychuk is more of a two-way guy, true?

Another option, of course, if Fabbro does want more term, might be to not include NTCs or the like and make the AAV slightly higher. Then he can easily be moved if necessary.

After all, creating a winning team is all about the old cliché of making the whole bigger than the sum of its parts.

 

[tunnelvision]

To nuance it, I will add that we have been clamouring for a proper partner to Werenski for a while now. It seems that they might have found one in Fabbro. So what if he's not a "real" top 4 D? If he complements and thus elevates Werenski's gams, at least he comes cheaper. And if they did go and get another "real" top 4 D at the draft that doesn't complement Werenski specifically, that player could be paired with Mateychuk on the second pairing going forward. Mateychuk is more of a two-way guy, true?

Would you play $6.25M Severson in the 3rd pair then?

Werenski - Fabbro
Mateychuk - True top-4 RD
Hunt/Jake/Svozil - Severson
Gud

In this scenario I think we would need to trade Severson or Gudbranson, and by doing that possibly lose assets.

Another option, of course, if Fabbro does want more term, might be to not include NTCs or the like and make the AAV slightly higher. Then he can easily be moved if necessary.

Provided he doesn't suck.

After all, creating a winning team is all about the old cliché of making the whole bigger than the sum of its parts.

100%. I'm fine with paying big dollars to competitive, versatile, two-way top-4 defencemen, and top-6 forwards capable of being line drivers and excellent playoff performers. If possible, everybody else should come with a cheaper price tag relative to their market value.

 

[majormajor]

And if they did go and get another "real" top 4 D at the draft that doesn't complement Werenski specifically, that player could be paired with Mateychuk on the second pairing going forward. Mateychuk is more of a two-way guy, true?

I know an actual top 4 RD that we could get who could potentially fit next to Mateychuk. His name is Damon Severson.

No really, with Severson out there we are pulling 56% xGF, and 54% in actual goals. His big mistakes can make him frustrating to watch but you can't argue with the overall results.

Would you play $6.25M Severson in the 3rd pair then?

Werenski - Fabbro
Mateychuk - True top-4 RD
Hunt/Jake/Svozil - Severson
Gud

In this scenario I think we would need to trade Severson or Gudbranson, and by doing that possibly lose assets.

In addition to the point above about Severson not actually being bad, depending on how you use your pairings he could still end up playing a lot even if he's nominally third pair. That's the way it was for New Jersey in 2022-23 - the year Severson put up a monster season analytics-wise (Dom valued him at $10m per ). Marino and Hamilton were ahead of him on the depth chart but he still played 20 minutes a night and drove big differentials. In our case if Werenski is playing 28 minutes a night, then Fabbro or whoever his D partner is won't have to play all of that, as Severson, Mateychuk, etc.. will each get some shifts with Werenski as well. Jan Rutta was Hedman's main D partner for a couple years and he played as much as 10 fewer minutes per night!

We don't have to adjust our pairings to make it seem like we're getting our money's worth with Severson. One because it's all sunk cost, and two because he's actually usually good and will earn decent minutes. It's also a stupid long contract and probably not moveable, so I'm a little tired of how moving Severson figures into so many future projections here. He's probably ours for good.

 

[Forepar]

In my opinion there is only one player on that list that we can say would be a top 4 D-man on a contender and that's provorov. That said, I'm not extending him for the cost it's likely to be and the fact we can't get out of Severson's deal.

I really like Fabbro but is he top 4 on a contender? I'd like to extend him but I'm not paying him like a top 4. Anything over $3.5 and I think that's too much.

The others... all are RFAs. I don't think "extend" is really the word I would use. I would look at them as who would we retain as a RFA. I think all but Ole get qualified and provide some depth at the NHL and AHL level.

So... to me... we are really devoid of to 4 d-men on this roster. We hope Mateychuk gets there. I also hope Morelli is not just a Jr player and can develop into a 4-6 NHL D-man. Beyond that... I think they need to pull a trade and find a way to move Severson in the next 2 years if possible.

Agree with all of this, except that if there was a way to KNOW that Severson could/would be moved in the next 2 years, I would be tempted to try to extend Provorov. He'll be pricey, probably too pricey, but he can play. Severson makes me nuts, and only 6.5 years left. lol. If Severson still to be on the roster for the next 6.5 years, Provorov has to be traded at the TDL.

 

[Aaaarrgghh]

Would you play $6.25M Severson in the 3rd pair then?

Werenski - Fabbro
Mateychuk - True top-4 RD
Hunt/Jake/Svozil - Severson
Gud

In this scenario I think we would need to trade Severson or Gudbranson, and by doing that possibly lose assets.


Provided he doesn't suck.


100%. I'm fine with paying big dollars to competitive, versatile, two-way top-4 defencemen, and top-6 forwards capable of being line drivers and excellent playoff performers. If possible, everybody else should come with a cheaper price tag relative to their market value.

I'm fine with having Severson on the 3rd pair. Gudbranson only has one year left and Mateychuk should bring a lot of bang for the buck, so that's fine.

I know an actual top 4 RD that we could get who could potentially fit next to Mateychuk. His name is Damon Severson.

No really, with Severson out there we are pulling 56% xGF, and 54% in actual goals. His big mistakes can make him frustrating to watch but you can't argue with the overall results.



In addition to the point above about Severson not actually being bad, depending on how you use your pairings he could still end up playing a lot even if he's nominally third pair. That's the way it was for New Jersey in 2022-23 - the year Severson put up a monster season analytics-wise (Dom valued him at $10m per ). Marino and Hamilton were ahead of him on the depth chart but he still played 20 minutes a night and drove big differentials. In our case if Werenski is playing 28 minutes a night, then Fabbro or whoever his D partner is won't have to play all of that, as Severson, Mateychuk, etc.. will each get some shifts with Werenski as well. Jan Rutta was Hedman's main D partner for a couple years and he played as much as 10 fewer minutes per night!

We don't have to adjust our pairings to make it seem like we're getting our money's worth with Severson. One because it's all sunk cost, and two because he's actually usually good and will earn decent minutes. It's also a stupid long contract and probably not moveable, so I'm a little tired of how moving Severson figures into so many future projections here. He's probably ours for good.

I guess I used "true top 4" as in "high quality D that significant improves the blue-line." I agree that we're stuck with Severson, for better or for worse. I kind of counted on putting him in the third pair with Christiansen or Hunt. Severson's underrated and analytically very good, but Columbus' issue right now is clearly on the defensive side of things, so that's where I figured Waddell would look to improve the team. Then again, maybe the solution to their defensive woes is to simply have Mateychuk and Hunt in the line-up, move Merzlikins and then acquire someone like Saros or Shesterkin. Or getting a high-quality two-way forward like Marner or Rantanen. I don't know.

 

[tunnelvision]

In addition to the point above about Severson not actually being bad, depending on how you use your pairings he could still end up playing a lot even if he's nominally third pair. That's the way it was for New Jersey in 2022-23 - the year Severson put up a monster season analytics-wise (Dom valued him at $10m per ). Marino and Hamilton were ahead of him on the depth chart but he still played 20 minutes a night and drove big differentials. In our case if Werenski is playing 28 minutes a night, then Fabbro or whoever his D partner is won't have to play all of that, as Severson, Mateychuk, etc.. will each get some shifts with Werenski as well. Jan Rutta was Hedman's main D partner for a couple years and he played as much as 10 fewer minutes per night!

Do you think those stats would carry over to playoff hockey? Do you think we wouldn't get outmatched physically with a top-4 D corps of:

6'2-211 Werenski
6'2-204 Severson
6'0-189 Fabbro
5'11-185 Mateychuk

 

[majormajor]

Do you think those stats would carry over to playoff hockey? Do you think we wouldn't get outmatched physically with a top-4 D corps of:

6'2-211 Werenski
6'2-204 Severson
6'0-189 Fabbro
5'11-185 Mateychuk

I feel like this topic might be somewhat out of place regarding Severson. Severson is a difficult player to hit and he's got good size and reach.

How Fabbro and Mateychuk fare is more up in the air for me. We'll have to see. You'd hope it works out like the 2022 Avs cup run team, which was even smaller, but if not we can make some adjustments if/when the team becomes a contender. It might become an issue but we're far enough away at this point that it shouldn't be the focus.