Which Active Players Will Reach 500 Goals?

[Dust]

Did you read my second sentence?

I completely missed it, whoops.

 

[BadBruins]

Marchand is on pace for 28 goals this season, if he keeps that pace he'll need 71 after this season.

That's not impossible, really depends upon how long he wants to/can keep playing. If he keeps playing till he's 45 like Chara did he's prolly a lock. If he retires at 40 he'd need 17 goals/season over the next four, which is very doable. If he maintains the 28-30 goals/season average he's been doing the past 6 years or so he can do it in a little over three.

But it's also very conceivable he falls short, so wouldn't be surprised either way. But if he next contract is 3 years he's prolly got a decent shot at least.

Marchand is going to get damn close IMO. Surprised he's not mentioned more. He's going to flirt with 30 goals again.... at age 36.

For him it will come down to how long he wants to drag out the last part of his career. Does he want to go out like Chara or Bergeron? Both paths are admirable.

 

[T REX]

Well, you could simply go by this to get a rough idea who could reach it. I think starting from Patrik Kane (#24) upwards (because he is near 500 and close-ish to retirement), they all have a chance if there's no drastic drop in production. Some of them probably won't reach 500 due to inconsistency, like Laine, Forsberg and Panarin (just a guess).

Active NHL Players - Goals per Game Leaders

Active NHL players who hold the all-time record for the most goals per game in NHL. All-time goals per game leaders for active NHL players.

www.quanthockey.com

This list is by goals per game average

View attachment 981571

Crazy to see Kuch that high as mainly a pass first player. Impressive. Along with a lot of those numbers.

 

[wetcoast]

Bedard, Celebrini, Fantilli? Nobody has anything to say about guys who still have 20 more years in the league to get there?

Michkov? Guenther? Raymond? Any takers?

First guy I thought of was Bedard, those extra goals so young really help plus he has Richard type of goal finishes very possible in his peak years.

 

[Video Nasty]

Focusing on someone not in OP’s list, I really like Point’s chances.

Could be sitting at 310 by season’s end and having just turned 29. If he is, it means he’s scored 45+ goals three seasons in a row, hit 40+ for the fourth time, has five 30+ goal seasons, and has a career average of 38 goals/82 games.

He could score 27 goals per season from here on out, retire at 35, and still notch 500.

 

[HockeyVirus]

The fact that 99% of the NHL doesn’t age like Marleau suggests Nylander’s game should? Gotcha.

And what about Nylanders game makes you think it will age poorly? He's literally built exactly like Marleau and plays the game almost the same.

Patrick Marleau didn't exactly age well either. 31 points after his 40th birthday.

His last few seasons were rough.

Willy doesn't need to play into his 40's. Late 30's would be enough. He should easily be a 20 goal scorer on the PP alone at that age.

 

[Bunch of Jurcos]

I think that Aho gets there late in his career. I believe that he's a smart enough player to avoid situations that would injure similar sized players. But I think it will be longevity that gets him there because I don't ever see him being much over 40 goals/year ever.

 

[north21]

Patrick Marleau didn't exactly age well either. 31 points after his 40th birthday.

His last few seasons were rough.

I think still playing from 35 to 40 is the big one.

 

[HFpapi]

It's been said many times so i shouldn't beat a dead horse but Pasta is more likely to score 600 than to not reach 500.

Insane to not have him in the shoe-in category. He's a lock for 500 barring career altering injury.

 

[glenngineer]

Forsberg’s sitting at 308 goals at age 30. I could see him getting there.

 

[Mattb124]

And what about Nylanders game makes you think it will age poorly? He's literally built exactly like Marleau and plays the game almost the same game.

Other than the fact that he is shorter and lighter than Marleau, it would be that only 69 NHLers have every played 20 or more seasons in the NHL and there is nothing that sets him apart from the 99% of NHL players who didn’t.

 

[BobCole]

And what about Nylanders game makes you think it will age poorly? He's literally built exactly like Marleau and plays the game almost the same.



Willy doesn't need to play into his 40's. Late 30's would be enough. He should easily be a 20 goal scorer on the PP alone at that age.

Retiring before 40 doesn't mean your game "aged poorly," it means it "aged out," like more than 99% of players do by 40. You seem to misconstrue this as an attack against Nylander rather than a mere acknowledgement that he likely falls into the 99%+ of NHLers in terms of career longevity.

 

[thegazelle]

Laine is the only one that I can be confident WILL NOT make it. His production has had a steady drop off for years. Rantanen I am also not sure about given the recent change of scenery.

 

[HockeyVirus]

Other than the fact that he is shorter and lighter than Marleau, it would be that only 69 NHLers have every played 20 or more seasons in the NHL and there is nothing that sets him apart from the 99% of NHL players who didn’t.

Again, he doesn't need to play to 40 to do it. I was just saying I see him playing after his current contract.

Retiring before 40 doesn't mean your game "aged poorly," it means it "aged out," like more than 99% of players do by 40. You seem to misconstrue this as an attack against Nylander rather than a mere acknowledgement that he likely falls into the 99%+ of NHLers in terms of career longevity.

I'm not taking it as an attack, I am basically saying this is irrelevant to my OP. Which was he was 7.5 years of this contract left + likely plays a few more years. He very easily can play until he is let's say 37 at a decent enough level to score 20 goals as a PP guy.

I feel like in a decade, no one will remember this thread but we will all think no one questioned Nylander hitting 500 because it seems so obvious by then.

 

[BobCole]

Again, he doesn't need to play to 40 to do it. I was just saying I see him playing after his current contract.



I'm not taking it as an attack, I am basically saying this is irrelevant to my OP. Which was he was 7.5 years of this contract left + likely plays a few more years. He very easily can play until he is let's say 37 at a decent enough level to score 20 goals as a PP guy.

I feel like in a decade, no one will remember this thread but we will all think no one questioned Nylander hitting 500 because it seems so obvious by then.

There are currently exactly two forwards aged 37 or older in the NHL who will score 20+ goals this year: Crosby and Ovechkin.

The notion that he will "easily" play at age 37 potting 20+ goals in the NHL is absurd.

It's not impossible, but it would put him in the company of a short list of all-time great players.

 

[HockeyVirus]

There are currently exactly two forwards aged 37 or older in the NHL who will score 20+ goals this year: Crosby and Ovechkin.

The notion that he will "easily" play at age 37 potting 20+ goals in the NHL is absurd.

It's not impossible, but it would put him in the company of a short list of all-time great players.

Keep in mind Marchand turns 37 this season and has 20 goals. I don't see a huge difference between Nylander and Marchand in his prime as far as tier of player goes.

 

[BobCole]

For the record, Nylander needs 250 goals to hit 500. Here's a list of every 500+ goal scorer who scored 250+ after Nylander's current age:

Ovechkin
Howe
Jagr
Brett Hull
Dionne
Esposito
Gartner
Messier
Selanne
Shanahan
Andreychuk
Sakic
Recchi
Marleau
Bucyk
Richard
Mullen

 

[BobCole]

Keep in mind Marchand turns 37 this season and has 20 goals. I don't see a huge difference between Nylander and Marchand in his prime as far as tier of player goes.

I've given you several data points demonstrating that Nylander would need to be an extreme outlier to score an additional 250+ goals before his career is over, but you continue parroting lines like, "he can easily score 20+ goals at age 37" despite being presented with the actual data about how unlikely this is to happen.

 

[HockeyVirus]

I've given you several data points demonstrating that Nylander would need to be an extreme outlier to score 250+ goals before his career is over, but you continue parroting lines like, "he can easily score 20+ goals at age 37" despite being presented with the actual data about how unlikely this is to happen.

Like I mentioned, Nylander took a while to really break out as a goal scorer. He has averaged a 45 goal pace his last 3 seasons (including this season in that). He's also scored 20 goals basically every year of his career that was not a pandemic.

So he is a few over 250 away. If he averages 30 goals/year the next 5 years after he would have 150 more.

So like 160 goals to hit 500 and he would be 33. All I am saying is, that is not a big gap for him. And saying he only gets 30 a year is under estimating him too.

 

[BobCole]

Like I mentioned, Nylander took a while to really break out as a goal scorer. He has averaged a 45 goal pace his last 3 seasons (including this season in that). He's also scored 20 goals basically every year of his career that was not a pandemic.

So he is a few over 250 away. If he averages 30 goals/year the next 5 years after he would have 150 more.

So like 160 goals to hit 500 and he would be 33. All I am saying is, that is not a big gap for him. And saying he only gets 30 a year is under estimating him too.

This is my final comment in this exchange because you still refuse to engage with what I've presented you. In order for Nylander to reach 500, he will need to join this list in terms of late-career offensive production:

Ovechkin
Howe
Jagr
Brett Hull
Dionne
Esposito
Gartner
Messier
Selanne
Shanahan
Andreychuk
Sakic
Recchi
Marleau
Bucyk
Richard
Mullen

I'm still betting against it. For the record, I like Nylander a lot.

 

[HockeyVirus]

This is my final comment in this exchange because you still refuse to engage with what I've presented you. In order for Nylander to reach 500, he will need to join this list in terms of late-career offensive production:

Ovechkin
Howe
Jagr
Brett Hull
Dionne
Esposito
Gartner
Messier
Selanne
Shanahan
Andreychuk
Sakic
Recchi
Marleau
Bucyk
Richard
Mullen

I'm still betting against it. For the record, I like Nylander a lot.

And you are ignoring that he wouldn't need to be scoring at that age. I am saying that if it came down to that I think he could do it. I think he hits it by age 35 to be clear.

 

[BobCole]

And you are ignoring that he wouldn't need to be scoring at that age. I am saying that if it came down to that I think he could do it. I think he hits it by age 35 to be clear.

I don't understand. What I posted was a list of 500 goal scorers who scored 250+ after Nylander's current age, which he needs to do to hit 500. He will need to score precisely as well as those players in order to hit 500?