Which Active Players Will Reach 500 Goals?
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HockeyVirus
16/34/88/91/44 - Pathetic losers
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Basically you need to score an average of 33 goals a year for 15 years to hit the milestone. Not a lot of players will be that consistently good for that long.
With that said, I think there is a clear missed name in William Nylander. Has another 7.5 years at least of play and is at 250. I think there is a very good chance he plays until around 40. Lots of room to get there and only recently has he become such a good goal scorer (40 goals last two years, on pace for ~50 this year)
With that said, I think there is a clear missed name in William Nylander. Has another 7.5 years at least of play and is at 250. I think there is a very good chance he plays until around 40. Lots of room to get there and only recently has he become such a good goal scorer (40 goals last two years, on pace for ~50 this year)
BobCole
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I'd probably bump Pastrnak into that top group, he's close to a lock to getting there.
BobCole
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GreatSaveEssensa
The Dark Side Of The Goon
Both Mark Scheifele and Kyle Connor are on pace to reach 500. Scheifele has 6 more years left on his contract after this season and only needs roughly 120 goals to get there. And Kyle Connor already has 8 seasons at 30 + goals (every season he has played except for Covid year where he had 26 in 56 games).
Kucherov is 155 away in his age 31 season. Edit—leran to read
ok, Point is 205 and only about to turn 29.
ok, Point is 205 and only about to turn 29.
If Kopitar gets his rough average of goals 22-25, he can get it done in about 3 seasons. It's doable.
Bozo Nicholson
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I think kyle connor will do it by the time he is 35, assuming he doesn't suffer any major injuries. The remainder of this season plus 7 more seasons.
Pastrnak should easily get there (shoe-in)
I see Kopitar, but no Marchand. Both I guess won't make it, but have a decent chance, if they play long enough (4 more years)
Kyle Connor is more likely than not
Jack Hughes is still very young and has imo a very good chance. He will get there
Missing Nylander and Point as likely candidates
I see Kopitar, but no Marchand. Both I guess won't make it, but have a decent chance, if they play long enough (4 more years)
Kyle Connor is more likely than not
Jack Hughes is still very young and has imo a very good chance. He will get there
Missing Nylander and Point as likely candidates
TheDawnOfANewTage
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torniojaws
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Well, you could simply go by this to get a rough idea who could reach it. I think starting from Patrik Kane (#24) upwards (because he is near 500 and close-ish to retirement), they all have a chance if there's no drastic drop in production. Some of them probably won't reach 500 due to inconsistency, like Laine, Forsberg and Panarin (just a guess).
www.quanthockey.com
This list is by goals per game average
Active NHL Players - Goals per Game Leaders
Active NHL players who hold the all-time record for the most goals per game in NHL. All-time goals per game leaders for active NHL players.
www.quanthockey.com
This list is by goals per game average
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HockeyVirus
16/34/88/91/44 - Pathetic losers
- Nov 15, 2020
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Not sure what you are trying to say? When have they been regular season losers?
Raccoon Jesus
We were right there
Sadly I don't think he does
He's falling off fast, age 37, and 20 goals is 50-50 this year
But he'll be agonizingly close, just doesn't strike me as the type to play just to chase a milestone
Damn, didn’t realize how much he had dried up recently after a strong start. Only 3 goals and 9 points in his last 22 games.
The screen cap of the table above shows both the number of games needed still, and the total number of games - at the current avg pace. Since this assumes a steady scoring rate, it's best to avoid drawing deep conclusions as who's to make it til 500. Obviously ignore the negative entries, or players already at 500+. Or you can use that to compare with how many games they actually needed for 500.
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BobCole
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Wow, that's some serious spreadsheeting. I did something similar but less involved. I actually threw it by the wayside once I determined that the biggest X factor was drop in production over time. Obviously some guys on this list - like McDrai - are safe bets to get there. But a lot of guys within striking distance (~150-200 goals) are in their late-20s/early-30s, and it's highly unlikely that those guys continue scoring at .40+ GPG. I think many of us have been lulled into thinking otherwise thanks go OV's unprecedented longevity. But the fact remains that most guys' goal scoring rate drops off precipitously after 30, so even being "only" 150 goals away at age ~30 leaves a steep hill to climb. Curious which players you think will get there!
Demandedace
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Kyle Connor has got to be one of the most consistently underrated players in the league
MoneyManny
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Getting to 500 goals is going to be easier than before with the NHL becomming softer and higher scoring. And with more teams we'll see players with some talent hanging around for longer too, especially since winning a cup becomes harder and a lot of good players will never win the cup.
For example guys on your long shots list like Aho and Connor are pretty much locks to get there if they stay somewhat healthy. Aho for example has never scored fewer than 24 goals in a season and has missed just 19 games in 9 seasons.
BobCole
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I respectfully disagree with this quite emphatically.
First, the pendulum tends to swing a lot in the NHL. We had the high-flying 80s, the dead puck era 90s, a boost in scoring immediately post '04 lockout, then another major lull (and star-studded goalie era) in the 10s, followed by an uptick in the 20s that has already come down a bit. Nothing guarantees a prolonged era of high goal-scoring.
Second, you mentioned Aho. He turns 28 this Summer and needs 226 goals to get to 500. To be clear, I'm not arguing he won't get there. I am, however, saying that - on a balance of probabilities - it's less likely for a 28 year-old to record 226 goals before retiring than it is that he does it. I mentioned this before, but I think OV's totally anomalous production is seeping into our thinking. Aho has averaged 34 goals on an 82-game pace thus far. While his durability has been impressive, it's rather unlikely that he won't have a single major injury before aged 35. Even assuming he plays mostly full/healthy seasons, he'd need production something like this to reach 500:
Age 28: 34 Goals
Age 29: 32 Goals
Age 30: 30 Goals
Age 31: 28 Goals
Age 32: 28 Goals
Age 33: 28 Goals
Age 34: 28 Goals
Age 35: 28 Goals
Possible? Sure. Likely? No.
Goal scoring in the NHL is hard.
