Which Active Players Will Reach 500 Goals?

[BobCole]

There are 4 active 500+ goal scorers today:
OV
Crosby
Stamkos
Malkin

I project 6 likely shoo-in candidates to reach 500:
Kane (17 away)
Tavares (22 away)
Matthews
Draisaitl
McDavid
MacKinnon

The latter four are 110-140 goals away, but I can't see them failing to get there.

From there, it gets trickier.

These 4 may get there:
Kopitar (68 away)
Pastrnak (124 away)
Kucherov (155 away)
Rantanen (28 years old and 212 goals away)

After that group, I see long shots or very very long shots, including:
Aho (27 years old and 226 away)
Connor (28 years old and 227 away)
M Tkachuk (27 years old and 260 away)
Eichel (28 years old and 270 away)
Laine (26 years old and 283 away)
Kaprizov (27 years old and 317 away)
Robertson (25 years old and 347 away)
J Hughes (23 years old and 360 away)

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[HockeyVirus]

Basically you need to score an average of 33 goals a year for 15 years to hit the milestone. Not a lot of players will be that consistently good for that long.

With that said, I think there is a clear missed name in William Nylander. Has another 7.5 years at least of play and is at 250. I think there is a very good chance he plays until around 40. Lots of room to get there and only recently has he become such a good goal scorer (40 goals last two years, on pace for ~50 this year)

 

[BobCole]

Basically you need to score an average of 33 goals a year for 15 years to hit the milestone. Not a lot of players will be that consistently good for that long.

With that said, I think there is a clear missed name in William Nylander. Has another 7.5 years at least of play and is at 250. I think there is a very good chance he plays until around 40. Lots of room to get there and only recently has he become such a good goal scorer (40 goals last two years, on pace for ~50 this year)

Yeah I should have had him on the latter list for sure. Oversight on my part.

 

[Dust]

I'd probably bump Pastrnak into that top group, he's close to a lock to getting there.

 

[BobCole]

I'd probably bump Pastrnak into that top group, he's close to a lock to getting there.

Yeah this is fair too

 

[NVious]

Kravtsov has to be getting close no?

 

[GreatSaveEssensa]

Both Mark Scheifele and Kyle Connor are on pace to reach 500. Scheifele has 6 more years left on his contract after this season and only needs roughly 120 goals to get there. And Kyle Connor already has 8 seasons at 30 + goals (every season he has played except for Covid year where he had 26 in 56 games).

 

[FunkySeeFunkyDo]

Kucherov is 155 away in his age 31 season. Edit—leran to read

ok, Point is 205 and only about to turn 29.

 

[Grifter3511]

I'd probably bump Pastrnak into that top group, he's close to a lock to getting there.

He needs to average 20 goals a year until he's 34. He's a shoe in barring injuries.

 

[kingsholygrail]

If Kopitar gets his rough average of goals 22-25, he can get it done in about 3 seasons. It's doable.

 

[Bozo Nicholson]

Basically you need to score an average of 33 goals a year for 15 years to hit the milestone. Not a lot of players will be that consistently good for that long.

With that said, I think there is a clear missed name in William Nylander. Has another 7.5 years at least of play and is at 250. I think there is a very good chance he plays until around 40. Lots of room to get there and only recently has he become such a good goal scorer (40 goals last two years, on pace for ~50 this year)

 

[blueandgoldguy]

I think kyle connor will do it by the time he is 35, assuming he doesn't suffer any major injuries. The remainder of this season plus 7 more seasons.

 

[villacco]

Pastrnak should easily get there (shoe-in)

I see Kopitar, but no Marchand. Both I guess won't make it, but have a decent chance, if they play long enough (4 more years)
Kyle Connor is more likely than not
Jack Hughes is still very young and has imo a very good chance. He will get there
Missing Nylander and Point as likely candidates

 

[TheDawnOfANewTage]

Dark horse, but- Tage.

 

[torniojaws]

Well, you could simply go by this to get a rough idea who could reach it. I think starting from Patrik Kane (#24) upwards, they all have a chance if there's no drastic drop in production. Some of them are

Active NHL Players - Goals per Game Leaders

Active NHL players who hold the all-time record for the most goals per game in NHL. All-time goals per game leaders for active NHL players.

www.quanthockey.com

This list is by goals per game average